The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
482	2674	97492	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

101

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.503x) of Dune 2 $4.66M  

 

Comps average: $4.66M

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
482	2781	97492	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

107

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

(0.523x) of Dune 2 $4.84M  

 

Comps average: $4.84M

 

Continues to do really well.

Edited March 8 by TheFlatLannister

[Inceptionzq]

Did a quick check of Ghostbusters Frozen Empire in Denver and Alamo Drafthouse.

 

Denver Thursday

525/19404

1.535x GB Afterlife T-13 (6.91M)

 

Drafthouse Thursday

2409/20889

1.406x GB Afterlife T-13 (6.33M)

 

Friday

2360/26657

1.653x GB Afterlife T-14 (20.08M)

 

Saturday

2665/28172

2.04x GB Afterlife T-15 (33.52M)

 

Sunday

1426/25015

2.52x GB Afterlife T-16 (27.56M)

 

Has a few more days of presales compared to Afterlife, so it'll be skewed in Frozen Empire's favor. But even when taking that into consideration it's looking pretty good. I think I'll fully track it starting Monday

[M37]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Pity I won't have dailies for it.  However, "knowing" that Sonic 2 is still a decent comp (and that Minions 2 will be good at the very end) helps at least somewhat.

 

(the real Trump Card for me at least is GBA ATP'd.  Love that I decided to do the dailies for that one as it still ticks all sorts of "ehhhh, maaaaaybe" boxes 2.3 years down the road)

Why not Little Mermaid, especially given the expected size of the preview? I’d be a bit leery of relying too heavily on Sonic 2, as I expect there to be some demographic differences between that and IO2 that may throw off market performance and comp value 

 

As for GBFE … of the reasons I’m not as high on that film is that I think it’s going to skew older, a nostalgia fix for adults while Afterlife I’m not sure really connected with kids in a way that makes them clamor for a sequel, maybe in a Fantastic Beasts kind of way. Especially now with a Giant Panda at least partially filling that void in the family market 

Edited March 9 by M37

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

Why not Little Mermaid, especially given the expected size of the preview? I’d be a bit leery of relying too heavily on Sonic 2, as I expect there to be some demographic differences between that and IO2 that may throw off market performance and comp value 

 

As for GBFE … of the reasons I’m not as high on that film is that I think it’s going to skew older, a nostalgia fix for adults while Afterlife I’m not sure really connected with kids in a way that makes them clamor for a sequel, maybe in a Fantastic Beasts kind of way. Especially now with a Giant Panda at least partially filling that void in the family market 

 

Was thinking about TLM as well, at least for the start. So already in the mix, as it were.

 

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

I think Minions 2 is the best comparaison because ( with Mario) we are the best animation movies in box office post COVID ( i don't count Spiderverse because it's also a superhero movie). Also Minions 2 with the trend in Tiktok has a big teenager representation ( 13-17 years old represent 34% of the audience in OW) . Also the problem with Lightyear that i think they don't make the same mistake is the tone of the movie , the trailer sound like more adult than 90% of the genre so he forget the younger target and this hurts the Box office for sure .

 

To conclude, to be big , Disney should marketing the movie for young people , teenagers and family in general with the nostalgia effect and different elements from all the demo target . And Despicable Me 4 will make this also 3 weeks after

 

Minions 2 will be good at the very end, but absolutely terribad at the beginning.  Like, "WOW, Inside Out 2 gonna break Endgame's OW!!!!     " level terribad.

 

To show you what I mean, here are the beginning sales of AtSV and Minions 2 side by side.

 

Minions 2: [10.75]			Spider-Verse 2 [17.35]
T-24:	68		T-24:	1019
T-23:	53		T-23:	253
T-22:	38		T-22:	87
T-21:	39		T-21:	101
T-20:	37		T-20:	99
T-19:	22		T-19:	42
T-18:	36		T-18:	81
T-17:	24		T-17:	60
T-16:	28		T-16:	79
T-15:	29		T-15:	71
T-14:	12		T-14:	94
T-13:	33		T-13:	83
T-12:	34		T-12:	85
T-11:	85		T-11:	93
T-10:	24		T-10:	154

 

One of those is not like the other. 👍

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Getting $14M Friday for KFP4 right now using Miami comps. Currently sold 4136 seats for evening showings 

Now at $15.2M

 

Yeah, walkups are going crazy right now. Up to 11.7k seats sold, not too far off form where Dune was at the same time

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Crazy low ratio for Panda. its probably going for something in Trolls ballpark today. 

Would be around 24-25% depending on how much higher the actuals were from tracked. Trolls was 22%.

Edited March 9 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC1 ratio for Dune 2 this weekend be very high I imagine.

[misterpepp]

In case you've missed any of the live-action Spider-Man movies in theaters over the years, AMC is re-releasing all of them once a week starting on April 15 with the 2002 Spider-Man.

[HummingLemon496]

Time for TASM 2

[HummingLemon496]

16 hours ago, Legion Again said:

We are still talking quite a bit down from KFP2 tickets tbf

50 now would be around 36 or so in KP2 dollars

[leoh]

1 hour ago, misterpepp said:

In case you've missed any of the live-action Spider-Man movies in theaters over the years, AMC is re-releasing all of them once a week starting on April 15 with the 2002 Spider-Man.

I want it

😱😱😱😱😱

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Morning MTC1 update

Fat Bear - 99377/818153 1424330.27 

Dune - 124406/757475 2253457.86 

 

There is no question Dune will finish comfortably higher but Panda ratios will be way lower. Let us see how things go. 

MTC1 Friday Final

Panda 4 - 214960/822544 3029385.90 5598 shows

Dune 2 - 182574/757472 3208732.18 4441 shows

 

Great walkups for the bear and overtook Dune 2 comfortably. Though Dune 2 did gross more at MTC1. @charlie Jatinder can Panda do 15m true friday if ratio is like 20%?  Dune 2 just over 37% drop from true friday. ~13m.  

[charlie Jatinder]

37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 can Panda do 15m true friday if ratio is like 20%?

Last check it was a possibilty though if tracked is 3.03M, actual probably be 3.3M ish which will be normal 22% for 15M.

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday Final

Panda 4 - 214960/822544 3029385.90 5598 shows

Dune 2 - 182574/757472 3208732.18 4441 shows

 

Great walkups for the bear and overtook Dune 2 comfortably. Though Dune 2 did gross more at MTC1. @charlie Jatinder can Panda do 15m true friday if ratio is like 20%?  Dune 2 just over 37% drop from true friday. ~13m.  

 

Using last weekends MTC1 adjusted comps I get $13.18M for Dune this Friday. ATP was today 17.57 and last Friday 17.07. Let's see what the studio estimates tomorrow say...

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Using last weekends MTC1 adjusted comps I get $13.18M for Dune this Friday. ATP was today 17.57 and last Friday 17.07. Let's see what the studio estimates tomorrow say...

As Charlie said, MTC1 will have a bigger ratio this weekend. So it may not match last week. Anyway let us wait for studio estimates tomorrow. 

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As Charlie said, MTC1 will have a bigger ratio this weekend. So it may not match last week. Anyway let us wait for studio estimates tomorrow. 

[vafrow]

On 3/8/2024 at 5:34 AM, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-14, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 38

New Sales: 3

Growth: 0/9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 30/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 29/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

T-15 Comps

0.500x HG:BoSS for $2.9M

1.000x Madame Web for $6.0M 

N/A for Aquaman 2

0.091x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.112x The Marvels for $0.7M

1.652x Wonka for $5.8M

 

Everything is still all over the map. Growth remains pretty tepid, but it's also still far out.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-13, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 45

New Sales: 7

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 37/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 35/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 7/2

 

T-13 Comps

0.469x HG:BoSS for $2.7M

1.000x Madame Web for $6.0M 

2.045x Aquaman 2 for $9.2M

0.100x Dune 2 for $1.0M

0.129x The Marvels for $0.9M

1.875x Wonka for $6.6M

 

A bit of a jump. I wonder if a busy weekend at the movies helped trigger people to look ahead a bit.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/8/2024 at 1:10 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-0 Day

 

Friday - 6448/100014 (477 showings)

 

Comps

1.63x Elemental - $15.2M

1.59x Trolls 3 - $12.8M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2

 

Friday - 27112/100481 (481 showings) $315,261

 

Actual gross probably ~$290-300K, that would normally be $15M ish.

 

Comps

1.52x Elemental - $14.3M

2.04x Trolls 3 - $16.5M

 

Saturday - 7822/105846 (507 showings) ~$85K

 

Admits +20% from FRI while gross is +15%. SAT may be $21-22M ish.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Arthur the King	T-6	Jax	5	14	10	10	1,173	0.85%
		Phx	6	15	9	9	1,955	0.46%
		Ral	7	20	9	9	1,779	0.51%
	Total		18	49	28	28	4,907	0.57%

 

T-6 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .651x (586k)

 - Dog - .609x (767k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .163x (440k)

 - Stillwater - 1.87x (523k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .583x (370k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Arthur the King	T-5	Jax	5	14	0	10	1,173	0.85%
		Phx	6	15	4	13	1,955	0.66%
		Ral	7	20	2	11	1,779	0.62%
	Total		18	49	6	34	4,907	0.69%

 

T-5 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .791x (712k)

 - Dog - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - .19x (513k)

 - Stillwater - 2x (560k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .694x (441k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .486x (942k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 610k

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-13	Jax	5	56	5	105	8,681	1.21%
		Phx	6	53	6	118	9,018	1.31%
		Ral	8	37	10	126	5,354	2.35%
	Total		19	146	21	349	23,053	1.51%

 

Forgot to post yesterday, but it was +31

 

T-13 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.238x (3.84m)

 - Shazam 2 - .839x (2.85m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.307x (5.36m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .678x (4.27m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .68x (3.81m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .454x (3.99m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.07m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .997x (6.38m)

 - Morbius - .695x (3.96m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-12	Jax	5	56	6	111	8,681	1.28%
		Phx	6	53	6	124	9,018	1.38%
		Ral	8	38	3	129	5,493	2.35%
	Total		19	147	15	364	23,192	1.57%

 

T-12 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.197x (3.71m)

 - Shazam 2 - .852x (2.9m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.3x (5.33m)

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - .67x (3.75m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .446x (3.92m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .877x (3.95m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.97m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .953x (6.1m)

 - Morbius - .658x (3.75m)