The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[tonytr87]

I think we need to sit back and take stock of the insanity that is Oppenheimer possibly opening to 60 mil, even 40 mil is absurd for this subject matter. 

[redfirebird2008]

10 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

I think we need to sit back and take stock of the insanity that is Oppenheimer possibly opening to 60 mil, even 40 mil is absurd for this subject matter. 

 

With a pretty limited number of showtimes as well compared to Nolan's other movies. There's definitely major risk for this movie when you look at Paul Newman's Manhattan Project movie in 1989, which had a $30 million budget and made less than $4 million total at the box office. Yikes! 

[Porthos]

re: Oppenheimer.

 

Probably want to be a little concerned about it being metro heavy.  Plus even with the minor chains, it'll be skewed toward chains that have their versions of PLFs versus those that don't.

 

Though, curiously/interestingly enough, one of the very last PLFs to check in today locally went to Barbie and not Oppenheimer.  And it's at a reasonably trafficked theater as well. 

 

Seems to me the theater in question waited until the very last moment and the sheer insanity of Barbie won out in the end.  I'd imagine a similar situation is playing out at various minor chains across the country that were waiting as long as they could between the two films.

 

Mind, the numbers out of the Twin Cities (courtesy of @abracadabra1998) might be a good sign of how it's playing in Middle America, as is perhaps the theaters @katnisscinnaplex is tracking.  

 

Still, this is exactly the type of film that is likely to over-index the MTCs, so something to keep in mind.

 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

re: Oppenheimer.

 

Probably want to be a little concerned about it being metro heavy.  Plus even with the minor chains, it'll be skewed toward chains that have their versions of PLFs versus those that don't.

 

Though, curiously/interestingly enough, one of the very last PLFs to check in today locally went to Barbie and not Oppenheimer.  And it's at a reasonably trafficked theater as well. 

 

Seems to me the theater in question waited until the very last moment and the sheer insanity of Barbie won out in the end.  I'd imagine a similar situation is playing out at various minor chains across the country that were waiting as long as they could between the two films.

 

Mind, the numbers out of the Twin Cities (courtesy of @abracadabra1998) might be a good sign of how it's playing in Middle America, as is perhaps the theaters @katnisscinnaplex is tracking.  

 

Still, this is exactly the type of film that is likely to over-index the MTCs, so something to keep in mind.

 

Its doing well in Emagine looking at @Inceptionzq update. That has 1 theater in Chicago. Otherwise its all outside big metros. 

 

https://www.emagine-entertainment.com/theatres/

 

 

[MrPink]

Definitely have it in the back of my mind it's especially gonna overindex at MTC1. 

 

But you know, I've been just hoping for 50m and since that's seems pretty likely at this point, everything is all gravy. I think in theory, the movie should appeal well enough to Middle America, despite the science-y stuff, the WW2 backdrop should help, but obviously in areas where PLF is lacking, it won't match to MTCs. Hope reception is good enough to take this to 200m. And that's where the whole memes can be a double edged sword, depending on how this hits for the target audience.

[upriser7]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

re: Oppenheimer.

 

Probably want to be a little concerned about it being metro heavy.  Plus even with the minor chains, it'll be skewed toward chains that have their versions of PLFs versus those that don't.

 

Though, curiously/interestingly enough, one of the very last PLFs to check in today locally went to Barbie and not Oppenheimer.  And it's at a reasonably trafficked theater as well. 

 

Seems to me the theater in question waited until the very last moment and the sheer insanity of Barbie won out in the end.  I'd imagine a similar situation is playing out at various minor chains across the country that were waiting as long as they could between the two films.

 

Mind, the numbers out of the Twin Cities (courtesy of @abracadabra1998) might be a good sign of how it's playing in Middle America, as is perhaps the theaters @katnisscinnaplex is tracking.  

 

Still, this is exactly the type of film that is likely to over-index the MTCs, so something to keep in mind.

 

not sure I'd consider Twin Cities as a reference for Middle America. It's a very very liberal area

Edited July 19, 2023 by upriser7

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Literal midnight and 1am showtimes are being added to both Oppenheimer and Barbie

 

This insanity reminds me of Endgame of course but also Deathly Hollows Part 2

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Probably want to be a little concerned about it being metro heavy.  Plus even with the minor chains, it'll be skewed toward chains that have their versions of PLFs versus those that don't.

Hence the Dune comp.

Otherwise TGM is $40M

Avatar 2 is $28M

GoTG 3 is $35M

BP:WF despite its sheer size is $26M

 

If any other film had Oppy sales, $100M was quite likely but since this is very PLF heavy, it will be presales heavy.

Edited July 19, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[Relevation]

10 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Hence the Dune comp.

Otherwise TGM is $40M

Avatar 2 is $28M

GoTG 3 is $35M

BP:WF despite its sheer size is $26M

 

If any other film had Oppy sales, $100M was quite likely but since this is very PLF heavy, it will be presales heavy.

That FRI jump is insane. Like frankly could we see something close to $10M previews and a 10x IM?

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

That FRI jump is insane. Like frankly could we see something close to $10M previews and a 10x IM?

it is insane for the genre but not crazy looking at showtimes. As I posted above Friday has twice the shows of thursday and so can support a big increase with all the sellouts we are seeing. 

[superduperm]

I may be going crazy here, but is second-biggest total box office weekend of all time (~$315M) in play?

[Porthos]

38 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

not sure I'd consider Twin Cities as a reference for Middle America. It's a very very liberal area

 

Well, I was using that a bit more of a shorthand for mid-sized market, though the Twin Cities is the #15 DMA so it's not that small (for reference the Greater Sacramento DMA [which I don't fully cover] is around #20 or so).

 

But point taken.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

18 minutes ago, superduperm said:

I may be going crazy here, but is second-biggest total box office weekend of all time (~$315M) in play?

With all these showings going to Barbenheimer I don't see how the holdovers manage better than a combined 50% drop ($70m) at best so you'll need $245m from the big two. The most realistic split is probably something like 165/80 and bank on a good IM for Oppy.

[redfirebird2008]

Local theater now has Oppenheimer listed on 5 screens instead of 3 screens. Now 17 showtimes on Friday instead of only 9 shows. That's nice to see them give it a lot more showtimes. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by redfirebird2008

[Liiviig 1998]

nvm

Edited July 19, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

I think we need to sit back and take stock of the insanity that is Oppenheimer possibly opening to 60 mil, even 40 mil is absurd for this subject matter. 

 

2 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

With a pretty limited number of showtimes as well compared to Nolan's other movies. There's definitely major risk for this movie when you look at Paul Newman's Manhattan Project movie in 1989, which had a $30 million budget and made less than $4 million total at the box office. Yikes! 

$40m is not absurd for Oppenheimer. I’ve seen a few posts about the subject matter. It’s Nolan, it’s IMAX, it’s a big universal film, it’s got a blockbuster prime summer release date. It’s got the Barbenheimer hype. There are huge names in the cast. Buzz and early reviews are excellent. 
 

There’s no major risk. Even the bottom of the long range was closer to 50 than 40. 

[vale9001]

wrong thread

Edited July 19, 2023 by vale9001

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

$40m is not absurd for Oppenheimer. I’ve seen a few posts about the subject matter. It’s Nolan, it’s IMAX, it’s a big universal film, it’s got a blockbuster prime summer release date. It’s got the Barbenheimer hype. There are huge names in the cast. Buzz and early reviews are excellent. 
 

There’s no major risk. Even the bottom of the long range was closer to 50 than 40. 

 

There's absolutely risk. The studio needs $400 million worldwide to break even, and it could easily come up well short of that number. They need people to show up after opening weekend. Very dark subject and very long runtime. If it opens to $50M and potentially ends up with a 2.8 multiplier, that's a $140M domestic total. Tack on similar performance overseas and you're at $280M worldwide. Universal would lose a lot of money in this scenario. 

[vale9001]

12 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

There's absolutely risk. The studio needs $400 million worldwide to break even, and it could easily come up well short of that number. They need people to show up after opening weekend. Very dark subject and very long runtime. If it opens to $50M and potentially ends up with a 2.8 multiplier, that's a $140M domestic total. Tack on similar performance overseas and you're at $280M worldwide. Universal would lose a lot of money in this scenario. 

 

 

it's risky but they know every Nolan movie became a sort of cult and you will make money from it. You need time maybe but there we always been collectors of all his movies, people going back to all his filmography there are gonna rent every single movie etc...so you make the money

 

i guess Warner invested so much money on Barbie marketing too cause they knew gerwig made a movie even if not s huge huge hit in theaters would have became a classic for a particular audience, so a sure success in the long time. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

Southern Ontario Friday showtime breakdown

 

Covers about 50 Cineplex theatres across southern Ontario.

 

Barbie - 578

Oppenheimer - 301

MI7 - 429

 

Cineplex must have made a strong commitment to Paramount in advance, because that's a lot of showtimes to a film that'll likely finish a distant third.