The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment

T-10 Thursday

143 Showings

331

24050

0.694

Transformers T-10

6.11M

 

T-11 Friday

192 Showings

574

32568

1.511

Transformers T-11

25.45M

 

T-12 Saturday

192 Showings

367

33114

1.005

Transformers T-12

19.46M

 

T-13 Sunday

184 Showings

184

31703

1.449

Transformers T-13

22.46M

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/10/2024 at 1:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Arthur the King (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	41	27	27	3554	0.76

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		19	19	70.37
Marcus:		2	2	7.41
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		6	6	22.22

 

Comps:

1x Ordinary Angels: $285k

0.34x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $185k

0.21x Haunting in Venice: $235k

 

Average: $235k

 

Boys on the Boat comp tomorrow.

 

American Society of Magical... (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 7 theaters	14	17	17	1026	1.66

 

Comps:

0.27x Drive-Away Dolls: $95k

1.42x Book of Clarence: $405k

0.16x Iron Claw: $110k

 

Thought this was gonna be in a lot more theaters, I'll keep tracking it but probably won't post more updates between now and T-1... feels like a waste

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Arthur the King (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	46	13	40	4370	0.92

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		26	7	65
Marcus:		6	4	15
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	2	20

 

Comps:

1.29x Ordinary Angels: $370k

0.5x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $275k

0.24x Haunting in Venice: $265k

0.14x Boys on the Boat: $245k

 

Average: $290k

[emoviefan]

13 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Arthur the King (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	46	13	40	4370	0.92

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		26	7	65
Marcus:		6	4	15
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	2	20

 

Comps:

1.29x Ordinary Angels: $370k

0.5x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $275k

0.24x Haunting in Venice: $265k

0.14x Boys on the Boat: $245k

 

Average: $290k

Either your market is underindexing or this is DOA. 

[leoh]

58 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday

130 Showings

2620

+211

21171

ATP:

17.01

1.273

GB Afterlife T-10

5.73M

 

T-11 Friday

164 Showings

2624

+264

26739

ATP:

16.90

1.468

GB Afterlife T-11

17.83M

 

T-12 Saturday

173 Showings

3044

+339

28168

ATP:

15.57

1.697

GB Afterlife T-12

27.89M

 

T-13 Sunday

157 Showings

1619

+193

25011

ATP:

14.79

1.965

GB Afterlife T-13

21.46M

it looks really good. 
 

Thursday previews matches @TheFlatLannister and @abracadabra1998 trackings as well. Here in NY there are some big PLFs almost sold out for evening previews.  

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Mind the Gap

 

I know this really isn’t quite the place to post this analysis, but wanted it in an active/ongoing forum to be able to refer back to it; but hiding most under spoiler boxes to not clog up the thread

 

 

So you know that whole $225-$325M domestic total Dead Zone I keep going on about? After further review, turns out it's both very real (and spectacular?), and is not a direct result of a shrinking post-pandemic theatrical audience, but rather started even a few years before COVID

The Data

  Reveal hidden contents

Pulled all $100M+ grossing films since 2015. (Why 2015? Hold that thought). Counted the number of films finishing with 10% of a given final domestic gross (shout to @Legion Again for that suggestion), to account for outside factors like competition, holiday effects, etc, that can either boost or hold down the final total. Given that the $100M+ level is only the last 15-25% of the distribution curve for all major/wide releases, if the sample were random (normal), we would expect to see a continually declining line as values go up, like this

 

 

 

But instead we get clear peaks and valleys, clustering and then voids, and while some of that fluctuation could be noise in a smaller data set, the disparity between those highs and lows is significant enough that to me indicates that there is some additional force/factors at play. Here's how it looks if the X-axis values are continually increased by 10% rather than a flat value (ie so no overalp in the ranges)

We get another small mini-peak around $625M, and what looks like what could be another peak around $100/$110M (but data doesn't go that low ... for now)

 

 

Note: final totals for 2023 films still in release, as well as those cut off by the pandemic in 2020, have been estimated

There are better odds of a film picked at random of grossing $600-$650M than $250-$300M!

 

Since 2015 only one PG13 or R release has finished with final domestic gross between $235M and $315M. Can you name it?

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2, with a $281.7M final gross all the way back in 2015

 

The Theory

  Reveal hidden contents

When I first began pointing out this void, the underlying hypothesis was that there was some unseen bar that had to be cleared, for a film to break out from the more limited audience pool to a broader one. They either had some kind of “it factor” or did not, with nothing in between (until Little Mermaid became one the one post pandemic exception).

 

Looking at the longer term data set, that’s not quite true: family films quite often slide into The Dead Zone. Stepping back, I suppose that makes sense: the primary audience are kids, and the parents buying the tickets probably have a lower threshold for what family films are acceptable to watch in theaters as opposed to all adults selecting films on their own. But setting those PG family films aside, there is a clear gap between the haves and have nots

 

 

The Catch

  Reveal hidden contents

So why does this natural resistance to middle tier grossing films seemingly kick off in 2015? Likely because we saw the domestic market become more top heavy. From 2010-14, the top 5 films released in a calendar year averaged just under $350M each, which accounted for 16.5% of the roughly $10.5B annual total. But from 2015-2019, those same 5 films per year jumped to over $516M on average, now collecting 22.5% of the $11.5B total. To put it another way, the top 5 ballooned by nearly 50% on average, while the overall market only saw 10% growth. Attendance was largely being shifted upwards to the top, at the expense of the titles below.

 

Perhaps this string of giant “event films” – MCU, Star Wars, Jurassic, etc – began to take up so much attention, not just during their runs but even in the weeks/months leading up to them, that it became more difficult for films a step or two below, that previously been able to grind their way into the Dead Zone, to gain enough traction to do so anymore. They didn’t have the “it factor” of the big brands, and instead topped out at a soft ceiling of ~$230M, most even below $200M. The rise of streaming likely also plays a role in this effect, as with larger new content libraries readily available, it becomes more difficult to pick up those tail end stragglers to add another $20/$30/$50M to the total.

 

The But

  Reveal hidden contents

After all this verbosity, will we ever see another $250M non-animated film? Almost certainly we will, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were several this year in particular. Why? The release calendar is largely absent of those top heavy tentpoles, typically with their Spring/Early summer, mid to late Summer and Xmas flags already planted, and probably gives films that were destined to run up again the invisible wall more space to flourish.

 

The adults who typically see a handful (3-6) movies a year, who in 2022 could have had dates circled for Strange MoM, JWD, BPWF and Avatar 2 (maybe TGM too) probably have only late July’s Deadpool 3 as a must see, followed by (I suppose) Joker, and then … surely IO2 and DM4 will pick up some adults, but after that I guess Beetlejuice 2? And, uh ...? And none of these (at least to me) scream $500M potential (though to be fair, neither did Mario or Barbie)

 

Looking back at 2014, the last non-pandemic affected year without a true major event film and the top release under $340M (note: Sniper is really a 2015 release), and you instead find FIVE films settling into the void that would open up the following year. So in a year lacking the big draws at the top, should not be at all surprised to see the mid-tier films return, find their way into the Dead Zone, perhaps starting off with Dune II

 

 

 

I love this analysis, and glad you traced it back to 2015. That's the year things changed. Avengers, Jurassic World, Star Wars (and throw in F&F for its international reach).

 

Studios and audiences really just started looking for homeruns. Don't go to the theatre for just anything. Wait for something that's guaranteed to go big.

 

The interesting accompanying point to this is how we've seen box office change from the 2019 period. We're obviously rebuilding at the box office, but, post pandemic, we've had 3 of the top 7 all time domestic grossers, and 5 of the top 15. We've had successes in this time frame.

 

But, we've only had one weekend in the top 10 all time post pandemic, and only 3 of the top 20. 

 

I feel we're still in this shift, and Dune landing in the gap (and I know you took out PG films, but I do think Kung Fu Panda can land in the gap as well) I think signals that we'll see more in the middle. Especially since I don't think we're getting the big opening weekends of the 2015-2019 era anytime soon.

 

 

 

 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/7/2024 at 4:57 PM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-14

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	308	12928	73
Fri	439	19660	108
Sat	472	20970	114

Thursday Comps

0.42x Dune 2 T-14 = $4.2m

0.38x Marvels T-14 (10 theaters) = $2.5m

Friday Comp

0.40x Dune 2 T-15 = $8.2m

Saturday Comp

0.43x Dune 2 T-16 = $12.3m

 

THU AVG = $3.4m

---

Using studio numbers for Dune 2 comps. Don't doubt they're inaccurate, but prefer to keep the method consistent. 

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-10

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	364	12928	73
Fri	488	19660	108
Sat	488	20970	114

Thursday Comps

0.41x Dune 2 T-10 = $4.1m

0.43x Marvels T-10 (10 theaters) = $2.9m

1.10x HG BoSS T-10 (10 theaters) = $6.4m

Friday Comp

0.38x Dune 2 T-11 = $7.7m

Saturday Comp

0.42x Dune 2 T-12 = $12.2m

 

THU AVG = $4.46m

[jeffthehat]

On 3/7/2024 at 5:06 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-14

Sales	Seats	Shows
678	23880	123

Comp

0.59x Dune: Part Two T-14 = $5.9m

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-10

Sales	Seats	Shows
867	24757	131

Comp

0.64x Dune: Part Two T-10 = $6.4m

--- 

Getting a similar result on the Dune 2 comp as Fla fwiw. Adjusted comp for $9.3m Thu previews and -10% ATP gives $5.4m. 

Edited March 11 by jeffthehat

[TheFlatLannister]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Some THU comps

HG:BOSS - $5M
Indy - $4.2M
Trans 6 - $4.9M

Wonka - $4.5M

 

Dune - $3.2M THU only / $2.7M including EA (shave 10% from both for atp)
 

Thinking Ghostbusters might be running hot here:

 

Orlando only

Hunger Games: $7.38M

Indy 5: $5.99M

Wonka: $6.67M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
482	3144	97492	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

180

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

(0.554x) of Dune 2 $5.13M  

 

Comps average: $5.13M

 

Another big increase. Now over $5M

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
559	3242	113406	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

98

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

77

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.557x) of Dune 2 $5.18M  

 

Comps average: $5.18M 

Adjusted: $4.66M

 

Adjusted down 10% since Dune 2 ATP makes this a bad comp

[leoh]

41 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Thinking Ghostbusters might be running hot here:

 

Orlando only

Hunger Games: $7.38M

Indy 5: $5.99M

Wonka: $6.67M

these numbers matches perfectly the trackings reported by @Inceptionzq, @jeffthehat

 

 

Edited March 12 by leoh

[abracadabra1998]

4 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Either your market is underindexing or this is DOA. 

 

Porque no los dos? I do think it will underindex here (this movie screams Middle America and my sample is a bit too urban to fully capture that), but even so it is still underperforming. Still, a movie like this can break out late, so we shall see

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Monkey Man (Day 1, T-24):

Day: T-24	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	33	29	29	3961	0.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		16	16	55.17
MTC1:		19	19	65.52
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		10	10	34.48
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.74x Argylle: $1.26 Million

0.6x Napoleon: $1.81 Million

0.39x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.76 Million

 

Argylle might be the best comp here, as it has the exact same sales window, it's not an IP, it might overperform with the urban cinephiles that my market has a lot of, etc. etc. Not a bad Day 1 for an original R-rated action movie, but we shall see where it goes from here

[TheFlatLannister]

10 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Monkey Man (Day 1, T-24):

Day: T-24	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	33	29	29	3961	0.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		16	16	55.17
MTC1:		19	19	65.52
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		10	10	34.48
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.74x Argylle: $1.26 Million

0.6x Napoleon: $1.81 Million

0.39x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.76 Million

 

Argylle might be the best comp here, as it has the exact same sales window, it's not an IP, it might overperform with the urban cinephiles that my market has a lot of, etc. etc. Not a bad Day 1 for an original R-rated action movie, but we shall see where it goes from here

dang this is actually a lot better than I expected 

[vafrow]

On 3/11/2024 at 6:37 AM, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-11, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 55

New Sales: 7

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 47/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 42/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 10/2

 

T-13 Comps

0.417x HG:BoSS for $2.4M

0.859x Madame Web for $5.2M 

1.477x Aquaman 2 for $6.5M

0.112x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.152x The Marvels for $1.0M

2.115x Wonka for $7.4M

Average: 3.9

 

Steady growth continues.

 

I'm waiting on the full showtime sets to hit on Tuesday night. I think that'll help this along. At the same time, there's a few other movies going up for sale this week, and I do wonder if that's going to hurt or help sales here.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-10, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales: 1

Growth: 2%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 47/5

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 42/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 11/2

 

T-13 Comps

0.378x HG:BoSS for $2.2M

0.691x Madame Web for $4.2M 

1.477x Aquaman 2 for $5.1M

0.110x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.149x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.556x Wonka for $5.4M

Average: $3.2M

 

Not a great day, as it fell behind on most comps. We'll get updated showtimes today though, and that should help.

[vafrow]

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D1, T-24, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 2

Showtimes: 4

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 4/2

Late Evening: 0/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 4/2
Regular: 0/2

 

With only two screens, I don't have much to comp against l, especially this far out.

 

Not bad, but I expect this to be pretty quiet until closer to release.

[vale9001]

 

 

 

[vafrow]

For Fall Guy, showtimes seem to be up on MTC4.

 

Interestingly, it's only in 3 of the 5 theatres in my sample. It might just be timing issues, so I'll check again later.

 

2 of the 3 seem to have Wednesday EA shows.

[emoviefan]

One thing to keep in mind with the Fall Guy  it seems like it will be a GA/Walkup movie so Pre sales will probably not explode until close to release, even assuming reviews are strong coming out of SWSW. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
American Society	T-3	Jax	4	9	8	8	770	1.04%
		Phx	4	9	9	9	993	0.91%
		Ral	5	14	6	6	1,348	0.45%
	Total		13	32	23	23	3,111	0.74%
Arthur the King	T-3	Jax	5	14	0	10	1,173	0.85%
		Phx	6	15	4	20	1,955	1.02%
		Ral	7	20	2	16	1,779	0.90%
	Total		18	49	6	46	4,907	0.94%
Love Lies Bleeding	T-3	Jax	3	8	4	4	608	0.66%
		Phx	6	14	27	27	1,096	2.46%
		Ral	7	19	23	23	1,794	1.28%
	Total		16	41	54	54	3,498	1.54%
One Life	T-3	Jax	4	10	5	5	662	0.76%
		Phx	2	5	4	4	448	0.89%
		Ral	1	3	0	0	174	0.00%
	Total		7	18	9	9	1,284	0.70%

 

Arthur T-3 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .529x (476k)

 - Dog - .613x (773k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .12x (520k)

 - Stillwater - 1.77x (495k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .648x (411k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .315x (611k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 521k

 

Love Lies T-3 comps

 - Last Night in Soho - .75x (563k)

 - Ambulance - .9x (630k)

 - Bones & All - 1.35x (466k)

 - Men - .818x (346k)

 - X - .844x (371k)

Size adjusted comps - 465k (I would lean more on the last two comps as A24 tends to have a higher presale rate)

 

American Society T-3 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .359x (180k)

 - Joy Ride - .418x (376k)

 - House Party - .821x

 - Vengeance - .852x

 - Family Camp - .742x

 

One Life T-3 comps

 - Joe Bell - 1.5x

 - She Said - .474x (76k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
American Soc	T-2	Jax	4	9	2	10	770	1.30%
		Phx	5	11	3	12	1,133	1.06%
		Ral	6	16	0	6	1,480	0.41%
	Total		15	36	5	28	3,383	0.83%
Arthur the King	T-2	Jax	5	14	11	21	1,173	1.79%
		Phx	6	18	20	40	2,327	1.72%
		Ral	8	22	10	26	1,927	1.35%
	Total		19	54	41	87	5,427	1.60%
Love Lies	T-2	Jax	4	10	10	14	710	1.97%
		Phx	6	14	36	63	1,096	5.75%
		Ral	7	19	0	23	1,794	1.28%
	Total		17	43	46	100	3,600	2.78%
One Life	T-2	Jax	4	10	0	5	662	0.76%
		Phx	2	5	5	9	448	2.01%
		Ral	3	9	5	5	702	0.71%
	Total		9	24	10	19	1,812	1.05%

 

Arthur T-2 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .837x (753k)

 - Dog - 1x (1.26m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .265x (716k)

 - Stillwater - 2.72x (761k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .861x (547k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .418x (811k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 790k

 

Love Lies T-2 comps

 - Last Night in Soho - 1x (750k)

 - Ambulance - 1.11x (778k)

 - Bones & All - 1.85x (639k)

 - Men - 1.06x (450k)

 - X - 1.124x (494k)

Size adjusted comps - 602k (pretty good day in Phoenix - most showings had at least a few new sales)

 

American Society T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .311x (156k)

 - Joy Ride - .519x (467k)

 - House Party - .824x

 - Vengeance - .583x

 - Family Camp - .718x

 

One Life T-2 comps

 - Joe Bell - 2.11x

 - She Said - .76x (122k)

[el sid]

Love Lies Bleeding, counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): so far no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): also no showtimes
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 66 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 14 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 4 theaters: 88.

Comps: Bros (500k from previews) had on Monday for Thursday 174 sold tickets,
Priscilla (-/5.1M OW in 1.344 theaters) had also on Monday for Thursday 128 sold tickets in 3 theaters
and Drive-Away Dolls (estimated 450k from previews/2.4M OW) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 228 sold tickets (means it was probably a little bit in front on Monday).
 

So 300-400k would be my guess at the moment.