The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

If it does under 50 I’ll eat my shoe.

It's Deadline. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/15/2024 at 12:52 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla * Kong MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Previews - 682/48046 (182 showings)

 

Comps

1.10x John Wick 4 2 days - $9.8M

1.28x Black Adam 2 days - $9.7M (inf. adj. $10.3M+)

1.46x Hunger Games: BOSS 2 days - $8.4M

 

3.39x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire 2 days

1.59x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire at same time (8 days of sales)

 

Big Day 2 but kind of inflated by late start to sales for IMAX shows. Basically Day 1 was a bit deflated. Real value probably 475 Day 1 and 207 Day 2 sales.

Godzilla * Kong MiniTC2 T-13 Days

Previews - 859/48040 (182 showings)

 

Comps

1.17x John Wick 4 3 days - $10.4M

1.44x Black Adam 3 days - $10.9M (inf. adj. $11.5M+)

1.53x Hunger Games: BOSS 3 days - $8.8M

 

3.44x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire 3 days

1.86x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire at same time (9 days of sales)

 

Another strong day of sales. Since two main comps started sales a bit earlier than G*K, they shall continue to rise. Will likely change to T-x days comp at T-7 days, which will bring down comps a bit but will be closer to real number and ofc shall rise as we move closer to T-3/T-4 days.

Edited March 16 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/15/2024 at 10:50 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Arthur MiniTC2 

Previews - 2381/21657 (101 showings) $25K

 

Normally this would mean $1.25M previews but MiniTC2 is gonna over index due to Spring Break. I guess $750K+ shall happen, may be $800-900K on high end.

 

FRI sales are good, can think of $4M True FRI. Weekend may be 13-15M.

Arthur MiniTC2

Friday - 9522/50307 (252 showings) $100K

Walkups weren't as great as they could have been. Normally this FRI would have been $5M but with missing Canada and over-indexing due to Spring breaks (though being weekend, impact should be lesser than THU), probably $3.5M FRI.

I haven't checked FRI numbers overall yet so can't confirm this.

[JustLurking]

39 minutes ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

If it does under 50 I’ll eat my shoe.

sorry @Brainbug, gotta root against the film now

[Porthos]

On 3/15/2024 at 12:46 AM, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	19285	19863	578	2.91%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	1035
Total Seats Sold Today	138

 

Assorted Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	115.14		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	12.86%		9.89m
Wick 4	87.98		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	10.61%		7.83m
AtSV	45.44		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	5.93%		7.88m
FNAF	68.56		204	843		0/65	8837/9680	8.71%		6466	8.94%		7.06m
BOSS	173.05		91	334		0/81	12545/12879	2.59%		2701	21.40%		9.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Assorted T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BOSS	173.05		91	334		0/81	12545/12879	2.59%		2701	21.40%		9.95m
BA T-14	63.38		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	12.86%		4.82m
Wick 4 T-14	50.22		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	10.61%		4.47m
Fast X T-14	60.97		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	14.02%		4.57m
AtSV T-14	29.10		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	5.93%		5.05m
RotB T-14	71.89		---	804		0/120	18633/19437	4.14%		9744	5.93%		6.33m
FNAF T-14	30.78		83	1878		0/102	13393/15271	12.30%		6466	8.94%		3.17m

 

Regal:       118/7318  [1.61% sold]
Matinee:     11/2085  [0.53% | 1.90% of all tickets sold]
3D:             54/4642  [1.16% | 9.34% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         404/8686  [4.65% | 69.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Very nice second day, but can already see the accelerated calendar putting a bit of a thumb on a couple of the D2 comps, I think.  Gonna do one more Dx comp before ripping off the bandaid and fully going to T-x comps on Saturday.

 

FWIW, GBFE numbers [which I'll probably add to the chart in a day or two]:

 

GxE = 2.33065x GBFE after two days of pre-sales [???m] [578/248]

GxE = 1.27594x GBFE at T-14                                    [???m] [578/453]

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	19202	19863	661	3.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

Assorted Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	120.18		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	14.71%		10.33m
Wick 4	91.17		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	12.13%		8.11m
AtSV	48.64		87	1359		0/123	18537/19896	6.83%		9744	6.78%		8.44m
FNAF	63.37		200	1043		0/68	9279/10322	10.10%		6466	10.22%		6.53m
BOSS	171.69		51	385		0/80	12154/12539	3.07%		2701	24.47%		9.87m
GBFE	224.07		47	295		0/114	18603/18898	1.56%		——	——		???m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Assorted T-13 Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BOSS	171.69		51	385		0/80	12154/12539	3.07%		2701	24.47%		9.87m
BA T-13	67.79		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	14.71%		5.15m
Wick 4 T-13	53.70		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	12.13%		4.78m
Fast X T-13	60.15		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	16.04%		4.51m
AtSV T-13	31.95		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	6.78%		5.54m
RotB T-13	75.72		69	873		0/120	18564/19437	4.49%		9744	6.78%		6.66m
FNAF T-13	33.30		107	1985		0/102	13286/15271	13.00%		6466	10.22%		3.43m
GBFE T-13	135.73		34	487		0/116	19329/19816	2.46%		——	——%		0.00m

 

 

Regal:       118/7318  [1.61% sold]

Matinee:     11/2085  [0.53% | 1.90% of all tickets sold]
3D:             54/4642  [1.16% | 9.34% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         404/8686  [4.65% | 69.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching exclusively to T-x comps starting tomorrow night.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-7, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 65

New Sales: 2

Growth: 3%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/6

Early Evening: 56/8

Late Evening: 4/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/10
IMAX:6/4
VIP: 13/5

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.310x HG:BoSS for $1.8M

0.436x Madame Web for $2.6M 

0.739x Aquaman 2 for $3.3M

0.107x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.149x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.226x Wonka for $4.3M

Average: $2.3M

 

Continues to fall. I know other regions aren't doing quite as bad, but this seems like a drastic turn.

 

I think being the fourth biggest film in a month that's going to have three $50M openers is having an effect.

 

I'm taking my kid and a half dozen of his friends to see this on the opening Saturday. For any other film, I'd be stressed trying to make sure we buy early enough to get a block of seats. Right now, the showing is practically empty. 

 

This does seem walk up friendly, which might mitigate worst case scenarios, but it's also coming out on the weekend between March Break and Easter weekend. It's not the weekend where people are going to look to movie theatres, especially families.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-6, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 68

New Sales: 3

Growth: 5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/1

Late Afternoon: 5/6

Early Evening: 58/8

Late Evening: 4/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/10
IMAX:9/5
VIP: 13/5

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.298x HG:BoSS for $1.7M

0.347x Madame Web for $2.1M 

0.624x Aquaman 2 for $2.8M

0.104x Dune 2 for $1.0M

0.149x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.283x Wonka for $4.5M

Average: $2.2M

 

Further backslide against comps. Not drastically today, but it needs to reverse the trend soon.

 

 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-14, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 113

New Sales: 45

Growth: 66%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 17/3

Early Evening: 69/7

Late Evening: 27/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 55/6
VIP: 19/4

4DX: 18/3

IMAX: 19/3

 

Comps (D2)

1.487x HG: BoSS for $8.5M

4.345x  Madame Web for $26.3M

3.897x Aquaman 2 for $17.5M

5.947x GB:FE for ???

Average: $17.5M

 

Very strong second day. Went up against all comps. As mentioned yesterday, this is all premium formats as well. No regular showings are available.

 

The one downside is that Friday doesn't look as strong right now. This probably will be a bit more front loaded.

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-13, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 127

New Sales: 14

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 25/3

Early Evening: 72/7

Late Evening: 30/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 58/6
VIP: 20/4

4DX: 18/3

IMAX: 29/3

 

Comps (switched to T minus)

1.323x HG: BoSS for $7.6M

2.822x  Madame Web for $17.1M

5.773x Aquaman 2 for $26.0M

2.822x GB:FE for ???

Average: $17.5M

 

It's settling in a bit, but still doing well. Comps switched to T minus, but seems to have stayed consistent even with that.

[Unfitclock]

@charlie Jatinder true Friday or including previews

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/15/2024 at 7:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-6	Jax	6	61	8	159	9,040	1.76%
		Phx	6	53	2	166	9,018	1.84%
		Ral	8	48	9	171	6,936	2.47%
	Total		20	162	19	496	24,994	1.98%
Immaculate	T-6	Jax	4	6	2	2	578	0.35%
		Phx	4	6	2	2	580	0.34%
		Ral	6	10	3	3	626	0.48%
	Total		14	22	7	7	1,784	0.39%

 

Ghosts T-6 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .974x (3.02m)

 - Shazam 2 - .958x (3.26m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.167x (4.78m)

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - .543x (3.04m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .414x (3.64m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 - Uncharted - .934x (3.46m)

 - Indiana Jones - .497x (3.58m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.6m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .855x (5.47m)

 - Morbius - .592x (3.37m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Ghostbusters: FE	24.94%	8.31%	18.41%	3.98%
Haunted Total	35.73%	18.93%	17.76%	16.21%
Shazam 2	11.16%	8.37%	11.48%	4.44%
Suicide Squad	34.49%	11.39%	15.36%	7.32%
Turtles Total	42.43%	15.13%	18.38%	14.13%
M:I 7 Total	25.71%	14.27%	18.97%	8.61%
Uncharted	31.76%	-	-	11.32%
Indiana Jones	17.29%	12.35%	11.68%	10.17%

 

Pretty bad day, 3-day not great either but ahead of Shazam 2 and Indy.  Hoping for around +12% tomorrow, expecting around +6%.

 

Immaculate T-6 comps

 - Night House - .5x (130k)

 - Men - .259x (110k)

 - Firestarter - .212x (80k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-5	Jax	6	61	43	202	9,040	2.23%
		Phx	6	53	15	181	9,018	2.01%
		Ral	8	48	8	179	6,936	2.58%
	Total		20	162	66	562	24,994	2.25%
Immaculate	T-5	Jax	4	6	3	5	578	0.87%
		Phx	4	6	0	2	580	0.34%
		Ral	6	10	0	3	626	0.48%
	Total		14	22	3	10	1,784	0.56%

 

Ghosts T-5 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .967x (3m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.03x (3.49m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.188x (4.87m)

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - .547x (3.06m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .422x (3.71m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Indiana Jones - .497x (3.58m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.72m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .895x (5.73m)

 - Morbius - .628x (3.58m)
 

Quote

Hoping for around +12% tomorrow, expecting around +6%.

 

+13.3% on the day!  Tomorrow I'm looking for +11%

 

Immaculate T-5 comps

 - Night House - .667x (173k)

 - Men - .294x (124k)

 - Firestarter - .303x (114k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/15/2024 at 8:12 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-13	Jax	5	53	23	144	9,702	1.48%
		Phx	6	35	28	181	5,619	3.22%
		Ral	8	55	8	110	7,740	1.42%
	Total		19	143	59	435	23,061	1.89%

 

Day 2 comps

 - TMNT (Total) - 1.182x (6.62m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.891x

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.495x (6.2m)

 - F9 - 1.28x (9.08m)

 - Black Widow - .572x (7.55m)

 - Avatar 2 - .365x (6.2m)

 

T-13 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .192x (3.26m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .848x (4.75m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .566x (4.98m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .845x (5.32m)
 - Venom 2 - .816x (9.47m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.63x (6.68m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.23m

 

I like this as a starting point.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-12	Jax	5	53	16	160	9,702	1.65%
		Phx	6	39	33	214	7,067	3.03%
		Ral	8	55	15	125	7,740	1.61%
	Total		19	147	64	499	24,509	2.04%

 

T-12 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .206x (3.51m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .917x (5.14m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .611x (5.37m)
 - Venom 2 - .844x (9.79m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.78x (7.31m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .225x (3.94m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .994x (6.21m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.202x (5.41m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.28m

 

(Transformers I started tracking at T-7)

[Issac Newton]

 

Spy x Family Code: White is releasing on April 19. Is $10M North America at sight? 

 

 

Also is anyone tracking Vietnamese Titles "MAI" (3rd Consecutive ATG in Vietnam by Trấn Thành). 

[Krissykins]

19 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

.

Immaculate T-5 comps

 - Night House - .667x (173k)

 - Men - .294x (124k)

 - Firestarter - .303x (114k)

Oh wow, I was hoping Immaculate could break out lol. Guess not. 

[filmlover]

I have not seen a single piece of marketing for Immaculate.

[M37]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 27128/541132 472681.20 2778 shows +1462

Friday - 19109/624185 324008.51 3267 shows +1753

 

Preview holding steady with Wonka and Aquaman comps at ~$4.5M, but not keeping pace with and dropping against Little Mermaid. Sales should roughly triple from T-7 to T-F, to ~75K Final give or take

 

But Friday sales (relative to Thur) softer than Wonka, suggesting ~$10.5 TFri, about 15% below Afterlife TFri (so lower IM).

 

Overall, low to mid $30s TruFFS, higher $30s OW barring some change in pace/trajectory

[Krissykins]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I have not seen a single piece of marketing for Immaculate.

Ah that makes more sense then. 
 

I thought with SNL, SXSW, Fallon, premieres etc that Neon were going harder than usual. Whoever is releasing it in the UK is doing a better job but maybe it’s social media mostly. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

35 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Also is anyone tracking Vietnamese Titles "MAI" (3rd Consecutive ATG in Vietnam by Trấn Thành).

It's only playing in two of the theaters I track.  Three of the four showings are empty, but the last one has sold 18 tickets.    From what I'm seeing at my showtimes source, it's only listed in around 100 US theaters for next weekend.  

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

It's only playing in two of the theaters I track.  Three of the four showings are empty, but the last one has sold 18 tickets.    From what I'm seeing at my showtimes source, it's only listed in around 100 US theaters for next weekend.  

Thanks for the Intel!

 

‘Dad, I’m Sorry’ Crosses $1M At U.S. Box Office In Milestone For Vietnam-Produced Film

 

https://deadline.com/2021/06/dad-im-sorry-crosses-one-million-dollars-us-box-office-bo-gia-1234774956/

 

Dad, I’m Sorry originally debuted in the U.S. in just 19 theaters via 3388 Films, landing a spot in the Top 10 that first weekend and grossing over $400K to claim the record of best opening weekend for a Vietnam film in U.S theaters. 

 

Dad, I’m Sorry (Bố Già) really did amazing, So I am expecting the same for MAI (same director after all). Hopefully, next week, I will know if MAI clicks with the audience.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Preview holding steady with Wonka and Aquaman comps at ~$4.5M, but not keeping pace with and dropping against Little Mermaid. Sales should roughly triple from T-7 to T-F, to ~75K Final give or take

 

But Friday sales (relative to Thur) softer than Wonka, suggesting ~$10.5 TFri, about 15% below Afterlife TFri (so lower IM).

 

Overall, low to mid $30s TruFFS, higher $30s OW barring some change in pace/trajectory

And Sony does not seem to be doing much to help it with the late embargo  and all or maybe they are helping it by doing that. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Ah that makes more sense then. 
 

I thought with SNL, SXSW, Fallon, premieres etc that Neon were going harder than usual. Whoever is releasing it in the UK is doing a better job but maybe it’s social media mostly. 

It probably doesn't help that there's a similar-looking (and much higher profile) movie coming out within such close proximity in the form of The First Omen. Immaculate going to be pretty much gone before those who want to double feature them will have the chance to do so lol.

[leoh]

13 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

And Sony does not seem to be doing much to help it with the late embargo  and all or maybe they are helping it by doing that. 

 

T Mobile promotion starts on Tuesday.

 

😏

Edited March 16 by leoh