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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

 

they are based on the pre sales started 2 months before. It's really hard to predict how this can open, so the prediction is like 20M if flops, 40M if makes good. Something imo you can say even without pre sales.. i mean you see this movie and you say worst scenario 20M (less than that seems very unlikely), 40M best scenario. 

The last week before the release it's when things will became clearier...and anyways this is a kind of rom com too. So even if it opens with just 40M there are chances the legs can be good like for the tatum-bullock movie or anyone but you. I don't think we should focus too much only on the first weekend. 

I think the thing with The Fall Guy is it is relying on old fashioned star power , at a time due to Covid and streaming ,  when it is not always enough to get the GA in the door. Even pre Covid it was a pain in the ass. So yeah a 35-40 OW for this would not be great with the 125 -150 budget but if audience WOM matches the critic reception then legs will be great. Fingers crossed the marketing really does it's job in these next 4 weeks and 45+ becomes possible. 

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8 minutes ago, Flip said:

Still a while to go but I would be very surprised if Fall Guy out opens Kingdom of the Apes

Right now it does not look like it  but things can change. If Apes is not good  and The Fall Guy uses it's strong reviews and buzz to build it can certainly happen.

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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 6621/12537 153703.79 43 shows

Previews(T-6) - 18163/349297 363159.23 1749 shows +1654

Friday - 13556/573850 265502.10 2792 shows +1299

 

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 7163/13514 166031.37 46 shows

Previews(T-5) - 19600/349424 390550.00 1750 shows +1437 

Friday - 15021/573714 293489.27 2792 shows +1465

 

Meh day. Still sticking with 2m previews plus around 300-350K in early shows. 

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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 7163/13514 166031.37 46 shows

Previews(T-5) - 19600/349424 390550.00 1750 shows +1437 

Friday - 15021/573714 293489.27 2792 shows +1465

 

Meh day. Still sticking with 2m previews plus around 300-350K in early shows. 

Yay the same conversation going on the weekend thread right now will be going on next weekend too.

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On 3/31/2024 at 7:34 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-33, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales since T-40: 0

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 4/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 18

Showtimes: 5

Theatres: 4

 

No growth for previews, but good activity for EA. 

 

I'm not bothering with comps until I get closer to date at this point.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-26, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales since T-40: 0

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 4/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 21

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Nothing is happening on sales this far out. I'm still reluctant to even comp it.

 

The EA show is difficult to track due to site glitches.  

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On 4/1/2024 at 9:50 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Checking few random locs

AMC Empire 25 - 625 (3)
Lincoln Square - 298 (1)
Kips Bay - 148 (2)
34th Street - 113 (2)
Newport - 103 (2)
Americana - 460 (4)
AMC The Grove - 246 (2)
Universal AMC - 257 (3)
Montebello - 282 (3)
Burbank - 556 (3)
Century 15 - 328 (4)
Orange 30 - 429 (3)
Disney Spring - 609 (3)

Mission Valley - 197 (1)
Chula Vista - 304 (5)

 

4955 - 15 locs - 41 shows


@keysersoze123 check the other 500 I guess.

 

Won't be surprised with 50K+ sales. May be even 75K.

AMC Empire 25 - 705 (5)
Lincoln Square - 302 (1)
Kips Bay - 163 (2)
34th Street - 152 (2)
Newport - 105 (2)
Americana - 482 (4)
AMC The Grove - 287 (3)
Universal AMC - 297 (5)
Montebello - 323 (4)
Burbank - 605 (3)
Century 15 - 360 (4)
Orange 30 - 495 (3)
Disney Spring - 670 (3)

Mission Valley - 202 (1)
Chula Vista - 329 (5)

 

5477 - 15 locs - 47 shows

 

@keysersoze123

 

 

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On 4/6/2024 at 9:34 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Civil War T-5 Jax 6 40 25 89 6,947 1.28%
    Phx 6 20 5 75 4,163 1.80%
    Ral 8 19 5 65 2,513 2.59%
  Total   20 79 35 229 13,623 1.68%
Suga T-4 Jax 3 7 1 147 1,574 9.34%
    Phx 4 5 0 185 992 18.65%
    Ral 5 7 1 149 1,127 13.22%
  Total   12 19 2 481 3,693 13.02%

 

Civil War T-5 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - Elvis - .549x (2.12m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .82x (3.11m)

 - Free Guy - .962x (2.2m)

 - M:I 7 - .172x (1.51m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.67x (5.67m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .874x (3.17m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3m

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-4 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - missed

 - One Piece - missed

 - Left Behind - missed

 - Dragon Ball - .459x (2.02m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .339x (1.69m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Civil War T-4 Jax 6 40 13 102 6,947 1.47%
    Phx 6 20 9 84 4,163 2.02%
    Ral 8 19 2 67 2,513 2.67%
  Total   20 79 24 253 13,623 1.86%
Suga T-3 Jax 3 7 2 149 1,574 9.47%
    Phx 4 5 3 188 992 18.95%
    Ral 5 7 0 149 1,127 13.22%
  Total   12 19 5 486 3,693 13.16%

 

Civil War T-4 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .203x (1.33m)

 - Elvis - missed

 - Equalizer 3 - .788x (3m)

 - Free Guy - .91x (2.08m)

 - M:I 7 - .162x (1.43m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.35x (4.56m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 3m

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-3 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.171x (1.09m)

 - One Piece - .799x (1.39m)

 - Left Behind - 1.855x (1.34m)

 - Dragon Ball - .432x (1.9m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .307x (1.53m)

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On 4/6/2024 at 9:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Abigail T-12 Jax 5 16 4 5 2,149 0.23%
    Phx 6 15 0 7 2,900 0.24%
    Ral 6 13 1 10 1,651 0.61%
  Total   17 44 5 22 6,700 0.33%
Spy x Family T-12 Jax 5 18 0 55 1,938 2.84%
    Phx 6 17 3 48 3,774 1.27%
    Ral 7 18 2 36 1,616 2.23%
  Total   18 53 5 139 7,328 1.90%
Ungentlemanly T-12 Jax 5 11 1 6 1,214 0.49%
    Phx 6 11 0 12 1,268 0.95%
    Ral 6 9 0 5 1,102 0.45%
  Total   17 31 1 23 3,584 0.64%
Ungentlemanly (EA) T-7 Jax 2 3 3 92 320 28.75%
    Phx 4 5 2 54 602 8.97%
    Ral 4 4 4 85 467 18.20%
  Total   10 12 9 231 1,389 16.63%

 

Spy x Family T-12 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .212x (932k)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-7 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - 1.335x (1.56m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .199x (770k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .398x (438k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .58x (571k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .602x (1.05m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.05m

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-12 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - 1.15x (1.4m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .217x (676k)

 - Turtles - .106x (357k)

 

Abigail T-12 comps

 - Talk to Me - 1x (1.245m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .301x (1.51m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Abigail T-11 Jax 5 16 3 8 2,149 0.37%
    Phx 6 15 0 7 2,900 0.24%
    Ral 6 13 1 11 1,651 0.67%
  Total   17 44 4 26 6,700 0.39%
Spy x Family T-11 Jax 5 18 3 58 1,938 2.99%
    Phx 6 17 1 49 3,774 1.30%
    Ral 7 18 8 44 1,616 2.72%
  Total   18 53 12 151 7,328 2.06%
Ungentlemanly T-11 Jax 5 11 0 6 1,214 0.49%
    Phx 6 11 0 12 1,268 0.95%
    Ral 6 9 2 7 1,102 0.64%
  Total   17 31 2 25 3,584 0.70%
Ungentlemanly (EA) T-6 Jax 2 3 3 95 320 29.69%
    Phx 4 5 3 57 602 9.47%
    Ral 4 4 11 96 467 20.56%
  Total   10 12 17 248 1,389 17.85%

 

Spy x Family T-11 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .221x (974k)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .182x (907k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-6 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - 1.272x (1.48m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .207x (799k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .415x (457k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .589x (580k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .582x (1.02m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.03m

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-11 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .862x (1.05m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .214x (666k)

 - Turtles - .113x (383k)

 

Abigail T-11 comps

 - Talk to Me - 1x (1.245m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .329x (1.65m)

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On 4/3/2024 at 9:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

416

1579

83395

1.9%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

(0.462x) of Ghostbusters $2.17M  

(0.986x) of Argylle $1.68M

Comps average: $1.93M 

 

Big increase against Ghostbusters today 

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

416

2004

83395

2.4%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.471x) of Ghostbusters $2.21M  

(0.974x) of Argylle $1.66M

Comps average: $1.94M 

 

Not much movement over these past few days. Still looks like O/U $2M

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On 4/4/2024 at 10:35 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters 75 4 89 13674 0.65
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters 23 10 91 5090 1.79
TOTALS: 98 14 180 18764 0.96

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 77 4 86.52
MTC1: 70 0 78.65
Alamo: 13 3 14.61
Other chains: 6 1 6.74

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

0.14x Oppy: $1.5 Million (12 theaters)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-35):

Day: T-35, T-34 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 7 theaters 21 11 49 4568 1.07
Wednesday May 8 EA: 18 theaters 22 23 60 5010 1.2
TOTALS: 43 34 109 9578 1.14

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 49 13 100
MTC1: 43 7 87.76
Alamo: 6 4 12.24
Other chains: 0 0 0

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Still a bunch of blocked off showtimes for Thursday previews, super weird release

 

Comps:

0.14x Oppy: $1.52 Million (12 theaters)

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters 75 5 94 13674 0.69
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters 23 11 102 5090 2
TOTALS: 98 16 196 18764 1.04

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 79 2 84.04
MTC1: 72 2 76.6
Alamo: 13 0 13.83
Other chains: 9 3 9.57

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

0.23x Oppy: $2.39 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is not a real jump, it's because I started tracking Oppy in more theaters at T-25. Next update on Thursday I will have actually useful comps.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-32):

Day: T-32, T-31 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 7 theaters 21 8 57 4568 1.25
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters 23 35 95 5146 1.85
TOTALS: 44 43 152 9714 1.56

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 57 8 100
MTC1: 51 8 89.47
Alamo: 6 0 10.53
Other chains: 0 0 0

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

0.92x Fall Guy: ???

0.19x Oppy: $2 Million (12 theaters)

 

 

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On 4/4/2024 at 10:56 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-9 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters 34 9 9 3631 0.25
Saturday April 13 EA: 17 theaters 17 180 180 1880 9.57
TOTALS: 51 189 189 5511 3.43

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 2 2 22.22
MTC1: 7 7 77.78
Alamo: 1 1 11.11
Other chains: 1 1 11.11

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Thursday comp:

0.25x Trolls: $325k

 

EA Comp:

0.78x Trolls Sat EA: $915k

 

No, this is NOT a joke, there are too many similarities with Trolls Band Together (Saturday EA, EA exploding while Thursday sells barely anything) for me to not use it as a comp. After the EA I will switch to genre comps because I get this is not a family flick, but for now this will be what I use to gauge the EA

 

Abigail (T-14, Day 1):

Day: T-14 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 21 theaters 43 13 13 5118 0.25

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 0 0
MTC1: 5 5 38.46
Alamo: 6 6 46.15
Other chains: 2 2 15.38

 

Day 1 Comps:

1.1x Imaginary: $800k

0.79x Lisa Frankenstein: $550k

0.35x Thanksgiving: $355k

 

We shall see where it goes from here

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-6 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters 35 20 29 3730 0.78
Saturday April 13 EA: 18 theaters 18 48 228 2004 11.38
TOTALS: 53 68 257 5734 4.48

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 17 15 58.62
MTC1: 19 12 65.52
Alamo: 9 8 31.03
Other chains: 1 0 3.45

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Thursday comp:

0.6x Trolls: $775k (17 theaters)

0.21x Monkey Man: $295k (17 theaters)

0.28x Argylle: $480k (17 theaters)

 

EA Comp:

0.61x Trolls Sat EA: $710k (17 theaters)

0.5x MI7 EA: $1 Million (17 theaters)

 

Abigail (T-11):

Day: T-11 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 21 theaters 50 17 30 6686 0.45

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 7 0 23.33
MTC1: 15 5 50
Alamo: 10 6 33.33
Other chains: 5 2 16.67

 

Comps:

1.3x Imaginary: $945k (17 theaters)

0.87x Lisa Frankenstein: $605k (17 theaters)

0.54x Thanksgiving: $540k (17 theaters)

0.24x Exorcist Believer: $685k (17 theaters)

 

As always, there is a high degree of variance with sales this small, so beware! Things can easily change

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On 4/4/2024 at 10:47 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-4 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters 81 110 310 14403 2.15
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater 1 24 121 212 57.08
TOTALS: 82 134 431 14615 2.95

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 277 90 89.35
MTC1: 188 72 60.65
Alamo: 53 7 17.1
Other chains: 69 31 22.26

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

Monkey Man: Missed 

1.08x Napoleon (TUE): $3.24 Million (17 theaters)

1.4x The Creator: $2.24 Million (17 theaters)

0.35x MI7 (TUE): $2.46 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.65 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.11x Barbie EA: $120k

0.13x Dune Part 2 EA: $255k

 

Went with EA comps that had limited walk-ups due to capacity, but with how limited this is those comps aren't super useful. Thursday is just chugging along, this is doing pretty well at this point!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters 81 131 441 14403 3.06
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater 1 22 143 212 67.45
TOTALS: 82 153 584 14615 4

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 388 111 87.98
MTC1: 262 74 59.41
Alamo: 74 21 16.78
Other chains: 105 36 23.81

 

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

2.06x Monkey Man: $2.89 Million 

1.04x Napoleon (TUE): $3.13 Million (17 theaters)

1.75x The Creator (THU): $2.36 Million (17 theaters)

0.34x MI7 (TUE): $2.35 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.68 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.12x Barbie EA: $135k

Dune Part 2 EA: Missed

 

Updating daily from now on, I'll get a T-1 hour update for its EA as well

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9 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-6 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters 35 20 29 3730 0.78
Saturday April 13 EA: 18 theaters 18 48 228 2004 11.38
TOTALS: 53 68 257 5734 4.48

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 17 15 58.62
MTC1: 19 12 65.52
Alamo: 9 8 31.03
Other chains: 1 0 3.45

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Thursday comp:

0.6x Trolls: $775k (17 theaters)

0.21x Monkey Man: $295k (17 theaters)

0.28x Argylle: $480k (17 theaters)

 

EA Comp:

0.61x Trolls Sat EA: $710k (17 theaters)

0.5x MI7 EA: $1 Million (17 theaters)

 

Abigail (T-11):

Day: T-11 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 21 theaters 50 17 30 6686 0.45

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 7 0 23.33
MTC1: 15 5 50
Alamo: 10 6 33.33
Other chains: 5 2 16.67

 

Comps:

1.3x Imaginary: $945k (17 theaters)

0.87x Lisa Frankenstein: $605k (17 theaters)

0.54x Thanksgiving: $540k (17 theaters)

0.24x Exorcist Believer: $685k (17 theaters)

 

As always, there is a high degree of variance with sales this small, so beware! Things can easily change

 

I know it's early and there's a high degree of variance, but based on this, if you HAD to guess, what would you say Abigail will open to? 

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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 7163/13514 166031.37 46 shows

Previews(T-5) - 19600/349424 390550.00 1750 shows +1437 

Friday - 15021/573714 293489.27 2792 shows +1465

 

Meh day. Still sticking with 2m previews plus around 300-350K in early shows. 

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 8104/15392 186110.96 52 shows

Previews(T-4) - 21758/350298 430581.70 1758 shows +2158

Friday - 17096/575346 331903.44 2804 shows +2075

 

Now thinking 500K is possible for early shows. @katnisscinnaplex do you have show count for tomorrow?

 

Preview sales have picked up today. Let us see how final 4 days goes.  

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