The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

Oh God. The next 4 weeks is going to be fun.

[AniNate]

These aren't the kind of films where everyone who may be really hyped for them are actually gonna buy tickets the instant they're available. People watch these with their families and need to coordinate with them.

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes, "less than 24 hours a month before release" was enough to know that Spider-Verse was opening above $100M, enough to know that The Marvels was bombing, enough to know that GOTG 3 would have a bad OW, etc. That is a lot of time to know about how a movie would open!

 

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Those are all comic book movies. Tracking was really down on Kung Fu Panda 4 until the week it was released.

I think IO2 will behave somewhere in between something like ATSV and Kung fu panda. Not too heavy on presales, but also not slow like KFP

 

Hopefully @M37 comes back soon and provides some analysis 

[HummingLemon496]

23 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

I think IO2 will behave somewhere in between something like ATSV and Kung fu panda. Not too heavy on presales, but also not slow like KFP

 

Hopefully @M37 comes back soon and provides some analysis 

Yeah looking back at some old Reddit threads, Spider-Verse sales started out half of GOTG 3 but it opened higher, so yeah I was deffo overreacting I guess we'll have to wait and see. Animated movies aren't like comic book movies where you can tell easily from like 10 hours of data or so:

 

(( I take back what I said from earlier ))

 

Edited May 15 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Oh God. The next 4 weeks is going to be fun.

 

Before my time as a dedicated tracker, but getting severe Finding Dory flashbacks right about now.

 

(it did not pick up in sales until deeeep into its run, ftr, at least from what I recall)

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Will Lightyear work as a comp for Inside Out 2?
 

[AniNate]

Pixar discourse in general on this site was pretty insufferable pre COVID, lots of people just looking for any reason to tear their movies down

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Will Lightyear work as a comp for Inside Out 2?
 

 

Nope.  Even setting aside the controversy over the reported number, that only had ten days of pre-sales, while this is literally triple in length.  Completely ruins any possible comping until maybe the very last day.

[crazymoviekid]

12 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

IF:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 6 Tickets

 

KFP4: $1.69M

Migration: $1.09M

Wonka: $1.65M

Elemental: $.71M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $4.60M

 

Wide bunch but live action, PG comps are hard to come by. Definitely looking around $1.75M for now. 

IF:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

KFP4: $1.83M

Migration: $2.33M

Wonka: $2.72M

Elemental: $1.08M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $4.03M

 

Comps mostly are up. Adjusting up to around $2M-$2.25M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 17 Tickets

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

KFP4: $6.76M

Migration: $6.02M

Wonka: $6.87M

Elemental: $9.13M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $22.26M

 

unless this plays like Elemental, we're aiming around $6.5M-$7M.

 

Estimated OW: $25M-$27M

[crazymoviekid]

12 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

The Strangers: Chapter 1

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 3 Tickets

 

Tarot: $.95M

Imaginary: $.53M

Night Swim: $2.90M

Pope's Exorcist: $.52M

 

Weird comps. Let's go for $.5M-$.75M.

The Strangers: Chapter 1

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Tarot: $1.16M

Imaginary: $.67M

Night Swim: $2.09M

Pope's Exorcist: $.63M

 

Comps leveling off. Adjusting up to $1M.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Tarot: $7.95M

Imaginary: $9.75M

Night Swim: $5.48M

Pope's Exorcist: $17.00M

 

Wouldn't trust these just yet. Definitely on the lower end.

[crazymoviekid]

12 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Back to Black 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets 
Theater 2: 3 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.25M
Whitney Houston: $.44M
Downton Abbey 2: $.15M

 

Not great. Let's say $.3M.

Back to Black:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets 

Theater 2: 4 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.28M

Whitney Houston: $.22M

Downton Abbey 2: $.14M

 

Knocking this down to $.25M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets 

Theater 2: 11 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $1.08M

Whitney Houston: $1.31M

Downton Abbey 2: $1.13M

 

Despite relatively strong sales, comps are low around $1.25M.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope.  Even setting aside the controversy over the reported number, that only had ten days of pre-sales, while this is literally triple in length.  Completely ruins any possible comping until maybe the very last day.

That only had ten days of pre-sales? Jeez, that’s bizarrely low for a film of its stature.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes, "less than 24 hours a month before release" was enough to know that Spider-Verse was opening above $100M, enough to know that The Marvels was bombing, enough to know that GOTG 3 would have a bad OW, etc. That is a lot of time to know about how a movie would open!

The consensus that SV would hit 100M+ took a while to get rolling. GOTG3 did have an underwhelming start but it was mostly bad pace that sunk in the fact that it would have a meh OW.

 

Just past few years we've had stuff like Mario, Barbie and even Minions2 not have particularly crazy starts and then crazy pacing or finishes. Not to say IO2 will too, just that it's too early to count it out.

Edited May 15 by JustLurking

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/13/2024 at 9:54 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	114	29	159	16974	0.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		96	18	60.38
MTC1:		102	17	64.15
Alamo:		10	2	6.29
Other chains:		47	10	29.56

 

Comps:

0.34x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.28 Million (17 theaters)

0.84x Migration: $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.33x Wonka: $1.15 Million (17 theaters)

Wish (TUE): Missed

0.97x Trolls (THU): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.38x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.18 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.23 Million

 

My model has been pretty good for animated/family releases in the past, hence why every comp is so eerily similar. Still, looking at others' numbers and how much lower mine are, I am wondering if summer break might be something to consider here; from what I am aware, here in Minnesota most school districts don't start break until June. To those tracking this ( @katnisscinnaplex @TheFlatLannister) do y'all know what your school districts' summer breaks are like? Wondering if it's affecting numbers here.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	135	42	201	18626	1.08

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		122	26	60.7
MTC1:		119	17	59.2
Alamo:		12	2	5.97
Other chains:		70	23	34.83

 

Comps:

0.36x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.39 Million (17 theaters)

0.79x Migration: $1.18 Million (17 theaters)

0.36x Wonka: $1.25 Million (17 theaters)

0.58x Wish (TUE): $1.04 Million (17 theaters)

0.97x Trolls (THU): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.43x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.33 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.24 Million

 

Most comps did move the right direction, Wish and its lower ATP is bringing the average down, but if it keeps trending up perhaps I can see a finish around 1.5. One thing to peep at: the MTC1 ratio is unusually large compared to other family releases. At T-2, other releases' MTC1 % was at:

 

KFP4: 51%

Migration: 34%

Wonka: 59%

Wish: 35%

Trolls: 24%

 

So much more comparable to Wonka and KFP4; maybe something to think about when looking at keyser's numbers and thinking of the ratio there.

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/13/2024 at 10:05 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	39	2	20	3381	0.59
Saturday May 15 EA: 2 theaters	2	3	34	380	8.95
TOTALS:	41	5	54	3761	1.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		18	2	90
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		2	0	10

 

Comps (THU + EA):

Challengers (THU): Missed

0.1x Civil War (THU): $300k

0.68x Drive-Away Dolls: $240k (17 theaters)

0.71x Ferrari: $305k (17 theaters)

0.44x Iron Claw: $295k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $285k

 

The Strangers Chapter 1 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	52	4	70	4951	1.41

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		54	4	77.14
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		16	0	22.86

 

Comps:

0.68x Abigail: $680k

1.67x First Omen: $1.21 Million

1.24x Immaculate: $685k (17 theaters)

0.59x Thanksgiving: $590k (17 theaters)

Exorcist Believer: Missed

0.38x Saw X: $760k (17 theaters)

0.44x Nun II: $1.36 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $880k

 

Not a good update at all but I am wondering about the summer break deal here as well. For Back to Black it shouldn't affect it much I would think

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	46	1	21	3982	0.53
Saturday May 15 EA: 2 theaters	2	11	45	380	11.84
TOTALS:	48	12	66	4362	1.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		17	-1	80.95
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		4	2	19.05

 

Comps (THU + EA):

0.29x Challengers (THU): $465k

0.11x Civil War (THU): $305k

Drive-Away Dolls: Missed

0.67x Ferrari: $290k (17 theaters)

0.44x Iron Claw: $295k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $340k

 

The Strangers Chapter 1 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	67	26	96	6116	1.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		66	12	68.75
Alamo:		5	5	5.21
Other chains:		25	9	26.04

 

Comps:

0.72x Abigail: $720k

1.43x First Omen: $1.04 Million

Immaculate: Missed

0.6x Thanksgiving: $605k (17 theaters)

0.31x Exorcist Believer: $895k (17 theaters)

0.37x Saw X: $745k (17 theaters)

0.41x Nun II: $1.27 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $880k

 

Not much movement here

[YM!]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

I think IO2 will behave somewhere in between something like ATSV and Kung fu panda. Not too heavy on presales, but also not slow like KFP

 

Hopefully @M37 comes back soon and provides some analysis 

Tbh I wouldn't be surprised if it performed like KFP4 presale wise. You have two family films back to back this week and next week, demand is going to be eaten up. However, really like the Orlando comparisons and the KFP comparison, and does seem to indicate demand is above average for a family film but not at Mario levels which is good. What matters most is how pace goes but as for now, feel confident in at least 75-80m OW if pace continues like this can do 7M in previews but not enough data where I think it has no chance at 100m OW. Still could very well do that and beyond. The show count of the bat is very promising. 

Edited May 15 by YM!

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-30, Day 1):

Day: T-30	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	180	39	39	29702	0.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		26	26	66.67
MTC1:		30	30	76.92
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		9	9	23.08

 

Day 1 Comps:

1.31x Kung Fu Panda 4: $4.97 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x Wonka: $2.53 Million (17 theaters)

1.42x Trolls (w/ EA): $3.5 Million (17 theaters)

 

Holy numbers of shows and seats! Multiplexes are really expecting a lot here. Sales off the bat not amazing here sadly, but we shall see where it goes

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

That only had ten days of pre-sales? Jeez, that’s bizarrely low for a film of its stature.

 

Yeah, not to re-litigate a long dead horse, but that was one of the first real tangible warning signs when it came to Disney's confidence in the film.  Not that I'm a big believer in trying to over-read the tea leaves on such things (for instance, the OG Joker only had 11 days of pre-sales), but it sure as hell wasn't a great omen.

 

(an omen which was more or less immediately confirmed after about two or so days into the pre-sale run for LY)

Edited May 15 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

IF MTC1 

Previews(T-3) - 12326/269912 218037.48 1622 shows
Friday - 15645/592880 252990.57 3485 shows

 

Previews is from late night yesterday and Friday is as of this morning. I would say it should hit 2m previews or even more if walkups are strong. OW probably in mid to high 20s for now. Its Friday sales are not that much higher than thursday for crazy IM like say Panda 4. 

IF MTC1 

Previews(T-2) - 14352/303208 251919.45 1899 shows +2026

Friday - 19252/776155 305448.75 4729 shows +3607

 

Pace is really meh for T-2. Probably finishing around 35K and around 600kish gross. 1.75m ish for previews. OW should be similar to what I saw yesterday for now. 

 

 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

IF MTC1 

Previews(T-2) - 14352/303208 251919.45 1899 shows +2026

Friday - 19252/776155 305448.75 4729 shows +3607

 

Pace is really meh for T-2. Probably finishing around 35K and around 600kish gross. 1.75m ish for previews. OW should be similar to what I saw yesterday for now. 

 

 

Where is Deadline getting this 40 million opening stuff from? Nothing in the presales seems to indicate that.