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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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On 7/14/2023 at 10:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Mission: Impossible 7 3,546 100,031   86,577   13,454 4,130 0
Insidious 6 2,802 43,287 -20.22% 43,218 516.82 69 0 0
Indiana Jones 5 3,194 40,724 -40.42% 40,627 401.20 97 0 0
Sound of Freedom 2,719 36,577 16.93% 36,565 629.18 12 0 0
Elemental 2,685 35,171 -3.90% 33,547 274.13 1,624 0 1,568
Joy Ride 2,470 26,152 -32.20% 26,120 125.96 32 0 0
Spider-Verse 2 2,161 25,604 -15.30% 25,580 265.65 24 0 0
No Hard Feelings 1,696 19,455 -30.47% 19,455 193.15 0 0 0
Transformers 6 1,739 16,997 -28.03% 16,042 216.21 955 0 883
The Little Mermaid 1,329 11,623 -35.27% 11,221 205.49 402 0 385
The Miracle Club 612 8,364   8,364   0 0 0
Ruby Gillman 1,444 7,715 -75.87% 7,700 89.02 15 0 0
Asteroid City 620 6,283 -47.84% 6,259 187.03 24 0 0
Psycho-Pass 385 5,247   5,247   0 0 0
The Flash 676 4,335 -65.09% 4,306 182.49 29 0 0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for


OW Showtimes Comps

*Mission: Impossible (3-day) - 100,031 (3,546 TC)*

 - Eternals - 104,448 (3,436)

 - Ghostbusters - 101,185 (3,243)

 - Transformers RotB - 101,005 (3,183)

 - No Time to Die - 95,876 (3,529)

*Since this was a mid-week opening, the 3-day total does not include previews.  The comp totals are also using F-Su show totals*

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Barbie 7/19 EA - 437 (421 TC)

 - M:I 7 7/8 EA - 437 (433)

 - Lost City 3/23 EA - 434 (431)

Barbie - 80,057 (2,855 TC) (14,694 previews)

 - Lightyear - 82,420 (2,745) (15,359 previews)

 - Flash - 82,414 (2,823) (15,507 previews

 - Indiana Jones - 76,495 (2,876) (14,546 previews)

 

Oppenheimer - 44,992 (2,727 TC) (7,346 previews) (8,645 PLF)

 - Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548) (8,081 previews) (15,204 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,088 previews) (7,798 PLF)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518) (5,790 previews) (11,443 PLF)

 

Barbie is right at double the number of preview shows as Oppenheimer.  I was expecting a higher PLF share for Oppenheimer, but it looks like it's only getting half of the Dolby and no D-Box in my sample.  Scream had 3D which was the biggest difference there.  

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Haunted Mansion 7/26 EA - 115 (115 TC)

Haunted Mansion - 7,500 (2,108 TC)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 

Talk to Me 7/26 EA - 105 (105 TC)

Talk to Me - 2,569 (1,025)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

TMNT 7/25 EA - 30 (30 TC) (Harkins)

TMNT 7/29 EA - 568 (536 TC)

TMNT 7/31 EA - 419 (398 TC) (266 PLF)

TMNT - 9,481 (1,679 TC)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 - Barbie - 10,086 (2,388)

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Barbie 3,544 161,402   154,360   7,042 0 0
Oppenheimer 3,205 74,900   66,075   8,825 4,758 0
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 3,460 50,718 -49.30% 49,368 546.71 1,350 6 0
Sound of Freedom 2,741 36,961 1.05% 36,937 745.83 24 0 0
Insidious: The Red Door 2,188 28,954 -33.11% 28,940 300.36 14 0 0
Elemental 2,258 27,699 -21.24% 26,617 258.71 1,082 0 1,060
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 2,387 27,456 -32.58% 27,423 301.26 33 0 0
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 1,404 10,551 -58.79% 10,533 236.40 18 0 0
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts 682 4,726 -72.20% 4,400 202.47 326 0 303
No Hard Feelings 770 3,920 -79.85% 3,920 168.61 0 0 0
The Little Mermaid 525 3,520 -69.72% 3,369 206.44 151 0 139
Terrifier 481 2,116   2,113   3 0 0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for
OW Showtimes Comps

Barbie 7/19 EA - 437 (421 TC)

Barbie - 161,402 (3,544 TC) (26,350 previews)

 - Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392) (22,081 previews)

 - Jurassic World 3 - 181,854 (3,848) (28,686 previews)

 - Super Mario Bros (3-Day) - 147,070 (3,292) 

 - Minions 2 - 152,458 (3,602) (24,533 previews)

 

Oppenheimer - 74,900 (3,205 TC) (10,281 previews) (8,825 PLF)

 - Candyman - 74,146 (3,113) (6,279 previews) 

 - Elvis - 75,093 (3,377) (9,276 previews) (5,823 PLF)

 - M3GAN - 74,441 (3,124) (8,799 previews) (2,031 PLF)

 

M37 mentioned earlier about the highest show count for the top 2 movies so I did some investigating. Here are the top five in my tracking:

 

1: Thor 4 & Minions 2 - 290,996

2: JWD (W1) & Top Gun Maverick (W3) - 279,229

3: Dr Strange 2 & Bad Guys - 269,487

4: Black Panther 2 & Black Adam - 262,634

5: JWD (W2) & Top Gun Maverick (W4) - 261,412

 

Barbenheimer comes in at number 8 on the list with 236,302.  Not bad at all compared to what they are going up against.

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Haunted Mansion 7/26 EA - 116 (116 TC)

Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Super Pets - 41,515 (2,437)

 - Oppenheimer - 44,992 (2,727)

 

Talk to Me 7/26 EA - 104 (104 TC)

Talk to Me - 23,247 (1,431)

 - The Menu - 23,446 (1,792)

 - Prey for the Devil - 23,020 (1,732)

 - Barbarian - 21,805 (1,532)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

TMNT 7/25 EA - 30 (Harkins)

TMNT 7/26 EA - 28 (Harkins)

TMNT 7/29 EA - 674 (629 TC)

TMNT 7/31 EA - 515 (483 TC) (304 PLF)

TMNT - 11,392 (2,124 TC)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536)

 - Elemental - 10,493 (2,338)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 - Barbie - 10,509 (2,488)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo 8/2 EA - 100

Gran Turismo 8/8 IMAX EA - 126

Gran Turismo 8/9 EA - 506 (474)

Gran Turismo - 5,935 (1,460 TC)

 - Oppenheimer - 6,203 (2,306)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

 

Showtimes are starting to populate for Meg 2 but not enough to pull yet.

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22 hours ago, M37 said:

 

Barbenheimer T-1 Update

 

As the excitement for an historic weekend builds, all updates are in early!

 

Oppenheimer

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Come on Barbie, Let's Go Party

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Barbenheimer

  Reveal hidden contents

 

And finally ...

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Buckle up, enjoy the Thursday and weekend ride, because this kind of dual opening is not likely something we're going to see again for a very long time

well-see-you-at-the-movies-ethan-hunt.gi

Barbenheimer FINAL Update

 

Only time for one chart, but think it tells the story, as both movies across most samples followed a similar trajectory

 

jV4jchh.png

 

Overall the two films look to fall short of 600K total tickets (pending final Alpha numbers), but still +10% vs Thor and +15% vs BPWF, primarily due to limits on capacity: both Barbie and Oppy sold ~53% of all available seats across the entire MTC1 sample. That, and probably a bit of presale frontloading led to a soft finish, in line with CBMs but not significantly below them, and comp values dropping significantly against the high pace finishers like ATSV and JWD

 

Oppy - think MTC1 is going to overindex here, as THE premiere PLF viewing experience, but sales are strong across all markets: ~$9.5M preview, maybe $10M

 

Barbie - Again, strong sales across all markets, and just straight math - $31.5M average less Oppy - gets me to ~$21.5M-$22M which sounds about right after adjusting for lower ATP from where most samples ended. Could be slightly higher or lower

Edited by M37
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8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Jat said ~$19.5M for Barbie on twitter

 

below many tracking projections here. ATP and capacity constraints played a major role. 

Found capacity constraints were an issue with the bigger cities up here as well-mainly in that a lot of them werent using IMAX and similar sized screens (no doubt being held up by MI 7 and Indy 5). Suspect Barbie could have had an even bigger number without those capacity limits. 

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27 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

TMNT 7/25 EA - 30 (Harkins)

TMNT 7/26 EA - 28 (Harkins)

TMNT 7/29 EA - 674 (629 TC)

TMNT 7/31 EA - 515 (483 TC) (304 PLF)

TMNT - 11,392 (2,124 TC)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536)

 - Elemental - 10,493 (2,338)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 - Barbie - 10,509 (2,488)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo 8/2 EA - 100

Gran Turismo 8/8 IMAX EA - 126

Gran Turismo 8/9 EA - 506 (474)

Gran Turismo - 5,935 (1,460 TC)

 - Oppenheimer - 6,203 (2,306)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

Meant to mention something about how out of hand this is getting...

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16 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Fairly soft final presales today.  Capacity may end up affecting walkups here too.

 

Barbie
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
           
  Final Presales Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 65 166 1,006 624 54
Seats Added 5,070 14,965 122,030 79,586 7,383
Seats Sold 25,866 42,664 31,753 25,344 16,443
           
7/20/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 416 4,741 274,344 680,326 40.33%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 6 118 425 938 1,588
           
ATP Gross        
$15.64 $4,290,740        

 

Standard indexing would put Barbie between 19M and 20M.

 

Barbie
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
  Final Presales Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 76 65 166 1,006 624
Seats Added 6,492 5,070 14,965 122,030 79,586
Seats Sold 85,293 25,866 42,664 31,753 25,344
           
7/21/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 416 4,817 359,637 686,818 52.36%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 21 284 887 1,753 2,617
           
ATP Gross        
$15.46 $5,559,988        
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16 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Also soft final presales.

 

Oppenheimer
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
           
  Final Presales Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 11 39 354 252 5
Seats Added 758 3,875 38,456 29,209 1,187
Seats Sold 12,313 19,374 13,868 11,661 7,651
           
7/20/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 2,180 148,994 363,495 40.99%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 3 67 229 431 619
           
ATP Gross        
$18.03 $2,686,362        

 

 

Oppenheimer Comps
  Indy 5 Jurassic World: Dominion The Flash
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0            
T-0 $12.5 $12.8 $14.8 $16.0 $10.7 $11.0
T-1 $13.2 $13.5 $16.2 $17.3 $11.3 $11.4
T-2 $12.8 $13.1 $16.0 $17.2 $11.0 $11.2
T-3 $12.9 $13.1 $16.1 $17.2 $11.1 $11.2
T-4 $12.7 $13.0 $15.9 $17.1 $10.9 $11.0
T-5 $12.6 $12.9 $15.9 $17.1 $10.6 $10.7
T-6 $12.5 $12.8 $16.1 $17.3    
T-7 $12.4 $12.7 $16.2 $17.4    
T-8 $12.0 $12.3 $15.9 $17.1 $10.0 $10.1
T-9 $11.8 $12.1 $15.8 $17.0 $9.8 $9.9
T-10 $11.4 $11.8 $15.4 $16.6 $9.1 $9.2
T-11 $11.0 $11.4 $14.9 $16.0    
T-12 $10.8 $11.2 $14.6 $15.8    
T-13 $10.6 $11.0 $14.4 $15.5    
T-14 $10.5 $10.9 $14.2 $15.3    
T-15 $10.4 $10.8 $14.1 $15.2 $8.5 $8.5

 

10M seems like the obvious number from Alpha data, but there's a chance that there's a perfect storm of factors causing heavy over-indexing.

 

Oppenheimer
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
  Walkups Final Presales 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 17 11 39 354 252
Seats Added 2,115 758 3,875 38,456 29,209
Seats Sold 36,180 12,313 19,374 13,868 11,661
           
7/21/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 2,197 185,174 365,610 50.65%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 6 122 367 651 948
           
ATP Gross        
$17.60 $3,259,062        
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23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,186
Sold - 341,564
Total - 1,113,814
ATP - $15.03

 

Saturday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,173
Sold - 251,068
Total - 1,113,920
ATP - $14.66
 

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,340
Sold - 447,876
Total - 1,124,898
ATP - $14.60
 

Saturday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,266
Sold - 313,973
Total - 1,124,081
ATP - $14.42
 

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23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,185
Sold - 205,521
Total - 708,789
ATP - $16.57
 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,186
Sold - 200,553
Total - 711,833
ATP - $16.00
 

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,236
Sold - 255,801
Total - 713,780
ATP - $16.18
 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,222
Sold - 239,217
Total - 716,412
ATP - $15.77
 

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On 7/19/2023 at 3:22 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Barbie MiniTC2 T-2

 

Early Shows - 3371/3729 (13 showings) $53,803

Previews - 13392/63434 (291 showings) $158,000

FRI - 20838/128581 (566 showings) $240,438

 

Comps

0.84x Thor 4 Previews - $24.3M

1.31x GoTG 3 Previews - $23.7M

 

These are comps with ticket sales. Gross comp be lower due to lack of PLFs, take $1.5Mish lower.

 

1.36x Thor FRI - $55M

1.65x GoTG 3 FRI - $50M

 

Similarly adj for low ATP, $51M Thor, $43M GoTG 3.

Barbie MiniTC2

 

Early Shows - 3472/3729 (13 showings) $55,408

Previews - 31342/67421 (314 showings) $355,283

 

THU only would be ~$18.5M normally but EA shows quite bigger. $20.5-21M.

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On 6/21/2023 at 11:36 AM, across the Jat verse said:

Oppenheimer MiniTC2 T-30

 

Previews - 1121/24760 (99 showings) $17006

 

Comps
0.17x Black Panther - $4.76M
0.33x GoTG 2 - $5.94M

 

Comps (without IMAX)

0.63x Fast X - $4.7M (with IMAX $10.5M)

0.29x JWD - $5.22M ($11.3M)

 

Not perfect comps, but feels like $6-7M.

Oppenheimer MiniTC2

 

Previews - 12224/28888 (127 showings) $152,667

 

Normally would give $7.5-8M but there is just 1 IMAX loc and IMAX locs are over-indexing.

In a partial sample of 8 locs, the gross is 77% higher than Dune, which would give $8.3M. Similarly, Avatar comp is $8.7M.

 

But MTC1 over-index seems far higher, so possible $9M.

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On 7/19/2023 at 10:08 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Haunted Mansion T-8 Jax 5 31 4 99 3,813 2.60%
    Phx 6 27 5 108 4,543 2.38%
    Ral 8 30 4 65 3,672 1.77%
  Total   19 88 13 272 12,028 2.26%
Haunted Mansion (EA) T-7 Jax 2 2 12 67 395 16.96%
    Phx 1 1 6 67 208 32.21%
  Total   4 4 18 134 603 22.22%
Talk to Me T-8 Jax 5 14 2 10 1,269 0.79%
    Phx 5 11 0 17 1,258 1.35%
    Ral 6 16 4 10 1,567 0.64%
  Total   16 41 6 37 4,094 0.90%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-8 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .834x (2.83m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .123x (2.82m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.9x (5.66m)

 - Nope - .82x (5.25m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .601x (3.75m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .39x (2.34m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.076x (8.3m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.29m

 

Talk to Me T-8 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .195x (584k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.31x (2.78m)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.08x (2.98m)

 

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Haunted Mansion T-6 Jax 5 31 22 128 3,813 3.36%
    Phx 6 27 11 122 4,543 2.69%
    Ral 8 30 17 83 3,672 2.26%
  Total   19 88 50 333 12,028 2.77%
Haunted Mansion (EA) T-5 Jax 2 2 13 94 395 23.80%
    Phx 1 1 8 82 208 39.42%
  Total   4 4 21 176 603 29.19%
Talk to Me T-6 Jax 5 14 6 21 1,269 1.65%
    Phx 5 11 4 22 1,258 1.75%
    Ral 6 16 -1 11 1,567 0.70%
  Total   16 41 9 54 4,094 1.32%

 

I realized today that in the craziness of yesterday I forgot to post my other tracking.  Wasn't much to see though.

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-6 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .983x (3.34m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .116x (2.59m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.977x (5.77m)

 - Nope - .878x (5.62m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .64x (4m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .39x (2.34m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.959x (7.99m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.38m

 

Talk to Me T-6 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .228x (683k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.86x (2.23m)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3x (2.9m)

 - Candyman - .568x (1.08m)

 - Smile (Total) - .251x (502k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.48m

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On 7/19/2023 at 10:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Turtles T-13 Jax 5 40 1 47 5,828 0.81%
    Phx 6 59 6 93 8,926 1.04%
    Ral 5 35 4 66 5,055 1.31%
  Total   16 134 11 206 19,809 1.04%
Turtles (EA) T-10 Jax 4 6 4 59 384 15.36%
    Phx 1 1 0 16 169 9.47%
    Ral 3 3 4 72 433 16.63%
  Total   8 10 8 147 986 14.91%
  T-12 Jax 5 7 15 92 961 9.57%
    Phx 1 1 5 68 208 32.69%
  Total   7 9 20 160 1,169 13.69%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  It was back online yesterday and had sold more tickets but it is back down for maintenance.

 

Turtles (Total) T-13 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .273x (6.23m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .189x (3.41m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.09x (6.82m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.82x (7.81m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .716x (5.16m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .868x (5.21m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.38m

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Turtles T-11 Jax 5 40 -1 54 5,828 0.93%
    Phx 6 59 4 98 8,926 1.10%
    Ral 8 46 0 69 6,080 1.13%
  Total   19 145 3 221 20,834 1.06%
Turtles (EA) T-10 Jax 5 7 6 104 961 10.82%
    Phx 1 1 0 73 208 35.10%
  Total   7 9 6 177 1,169 15.14%
  T-8 Jax 4 6 1 60 384 15.63%
    Phx 1 1 0 21 169 12.43%
    Ral 3 3 2 77 433 17.78%
  Total   8 10 3 158 986 16.02%

 

Turtles (Total) T-11 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .245x (5.46m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.055x (6.59m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.72x (7.53m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .706x (5.08m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .736x (4.42m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.27x (5.71m)

 - Dune - .955x (4.87m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.82m

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Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo T-20 Jax 4 25 9 9 3,928 0.23%
    Phx 4 18 22 22 3,705 0.59%
    Ral 7 25 7 7 4,074 0.17%
  Total   15 68 38 38 11,707 0.32%
Gran Turismo (EA) T-12 Jax 1 1 0 0 51 0.00%
    Phx 1 1 0 0 123 0.00%
  Total   3 3 0 0 174 0.00%
  T-18 Jax 2 2 9 9 841 1.07%
  T-19 Jax 4 6 15 15 830 1.81%
    Phx 1 1 13 13 208 6.25%
    Ral 1 1 7 7 261 2.68%
  Total   6 8 35 35 1,299 2.69%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-20 comps

 - F9 - .241x (1.71m)

 - John Wick 4 - .191x (1.7m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .151x (1.33m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .425x (1.86m w/ today's average)

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