The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Relevation]

What kind of IM do we think IF will land? Elemental level of like 12.2x?

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-20	Jax	5	56	51	51	9,816	0.52%
		Phx	6	39	43	43	7,802	0.55%
		Ral	8	44	56	56	6,582	0.85%
	Total		19	139	150	150	24,200	0.62%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-19	Jax	1	1	4	4	198	2.02%

 

Day 1 adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .588x (5.17m)

 - F9 - .566x (4.26m)

 - Furiosa - 1.185x

 - Ghostbusters FE - .748x (3.29m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .41x (3.69m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 1.73x (11.42m)

[SpiderByte]

If Deadpool goes on sale Monday that'll be a hell of an interesting day

[AniNate]

49 minutes ago, Relevation said:

What kind of IM do we think IF will land? Elemental level of like 12.2x?

 

I'm doubtful it's gonna have the same kind of legs with Garfield and then Inside Out opening afterwards. Also just generally uncertain families are gonna appreciate it as much.

[cannastop]

52 minutes ago, Relevation said:

What kind of IM do we think IF will land? Elemental level of like 12.2x?

It's going to have a larger Internal Multiplier because If was released when kids are mostly in school, and Elemental was released when a lot of kids are on summer break.

 

So with Thursday previews of $1.8m, and a potential OW of $30m, that's an IM of 16.7.

[AniNate]

Oh if that's what they meant then yeah, it'll probably be larger. Elemental Thursday previews also began two hours earlier

[TheFlatLannister]

10 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Have a bunch of numbers from today, including Bad Boys (pretty good start for it honestly), but only able to post them tomorrow. Today was the first time in a long while that tracking felt very frustrating. Damn these Fandango issues and overall slowness  

It’s barely working with Python anymore. Might decrease the number of movies I track from 4+ to 2 max 

[Shawn Robbins]

Strangers 1.2 Thu

[thajdikt]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Bruh why tho 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Bruh why tho 

It's basically a second job to track three big movies at the same time.  Like... multiple hours a day...

[Issac Newton]

IF $1.75M

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/16/2024 at 10:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

IF - 269/6,121

 - Super Pets - .517x (1.14m)

 - Bad Guys - 1.78x (2.05m)

 - Lightyear - .19x (932k)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.057x (1.54m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .447x (1.7m)

 - Indiana Jones - .227x (1.63m)

 

Strangers - 383/4,161

 - Abigail - 3.3x (3.3m)

 - Northman - 1.658x (2.24m)

 - Nope - .301x (1.93m)

 - M3GAN - .88x (2.42m)

 - Insidious 5 - .138x (688k)

 - Scream VI - .147x (841k)

 - Black Phone - .508x (1.32m)

Santikos Tracking

 

If - 1,166/15,059 (101 shows)

 - Super Pets - .792x (5.64m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.109x (6.02m)

 - Minions - .129x (4.84m)

 

Adjusted for 1.75m previews gives me ~9m for true Friday 

 

Strangers - 1,188/9,956 (71 shows)

 - Abigail - 4.47x (13.55m)

 - Tarot - 7.665x (14.07m)

 - Don't Worry - 1.37x (8.7m)

 - Smile - 1.45x (9.01m)

 

Adjusted for 1.2m previews would be ~5.75m true Friday

[Shawn Robbins]

On 5/15/2024 at 12:16 PM, Shawn Robbins said:

So, the $40m figure for IF in the trades is coming from studio sources and, I think, NRG. I wouldn't discount it, as others have mentioned, especially with some recent examples of pre-sales not being indicative of eventual results until the weekend actually hit.

 

That said, the pre-sales I'm seeing in multiple markets are little better than I think some expect here. I wouldn't be shocked with a number between 2 and 2.5 for Thursday, as well as big jumps on Friday and Saturday. The flip side of that coin is the reviews... although kids won't care.

 

Could see 40 happening if this plays super strong in family markets and outside coastal cities like I suspect it could, but I'm surprised the studio didn't low ball it a little more to be safe... especially since we had been very publicly keeping our range in the high 20s/low 30s from the bottom end.

 

Anyway, here's the BOT weekend forecast:

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-forecast-if-pacing-for-family

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-if-pacing-for-family-driven-33-38m-bow-strangers-and-back-to-black-also-debut-as-apes-hopes-for-healthy-hold/

 

Welp, ATP and walk-ups ended up sagging the model down from that 2+ range. Hopefully the weekend pans out. 

[keysersoze123]

IF Friday MTC1 - 40102/786371 613771.40 4739 shows +14002

 

Meh T-1 growth for sure. If I have to guess its going to do around 7m true friday. Probably mid to high 20s OW. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/15/2024 at 11:38 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Strangers Chapter 1 (T-1):

I'll just go with the average here and call it a day with my prediction: $1 Million, +/- 0.2 

 

 
 

15 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Looking at the numbers and pace from yesterday I will plant my flag at $1.7 Million, +/- 0.2. Not seeing quite enough for $2 Million, but maybe other markets will pick up the slack

 

 

15 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-1 Hour):

Again, terrible comps, mostly for future purposes. Let's go with a prediction of $250k, 100k for EA, and a total of $350k reported (+/- 100)

 

I think this is my first time ever where I hit on all 3  needed that pick-me up after the raging at Fandango yesterday!

[Unfitclock]

If looks really good near me today I’m not sure what other people are seeing though 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/10/2024 at 11:45 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Kingdom of the Apes	2,960	100,752		87,101		13,651	4,860
The Fall Guy	2,642	43,023	-43.23%	42,548	319.55	475
Tarot	2,071	28,032	-27.11%	28,029	144.11	3
The Phantom Menace	1,832	20,975	-42.13%	20,962	240.65	13
Challengers	1,689	20,791	-38.46%	20,720	224.65	71
Godzilla x Kong	1,630	18,571	-30.82%	17,463	169.18	1,108		1,096
Another Church Movie	917	15,060		15,060		0
Civil War	1,471	14,986	-47.32%	14,907	124.82	79	41
Unsung Hero	1,442	14,447	-50.07%	14,443	103.26	4
Kung Fu Panda 4	1,299	12,283	-29.57%	11,928	144.19	355		340
Ghostbusters: FE	904	8,421	-43.76%	8,409	124.30	12
Abigail	1,050	7,926	-62.58%	7,920	110.08	6
Ungentlemanly Warfare	817	5,889	-69.09%	5,868	84.17	21
Wicked Little Letters	362	2,319		2,319		0
Dragonkeeper	369	2,265	-60.48%	2,265	74.84	0

 

5/10/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included
 

Opening Weekend Comps

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 100,752 (2,960 TC)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 108,862 (3,417)

 - No Time to Die - 112,174 (3,529)

 - M:I 7 100,031 (3,546)

 - Suicide Squad - 99,553 (3,252)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334)

 

Not Another Church Movie - 15,060 (917 TC)

 - National Champions - 15,457 (1,174)

 - Show Me the Father - 15,629 (1,054)

 - Family Camp - 13,401 (851)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Back to Black (5/15 EA) - 163

Back to Black - 20,355 (1,499 TC)

 - Three Thousand Years of Longing - 21,989 (1,690)

 - Champions - 19,923 (1,771)

 - House of Gucci - 19,223 (1,835)

 - King Richard - 18,783 (1,835)

 - She Said - 17,564 (1,375)

 

IF - 49,777 (2,538 TC)

 - Elemental - 59,677 (2,622)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - 58,221 (2,720)

 - Fall Guy - 57,692 (2,725)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764)

 - Uncharted - 50,0667 (2,672)

 - Blue Beetle - 47,033 (2,293)

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - 27,898 (1,842 TC)

 - Abigail - 29,598 (2,022)

 - M3GAN - 29,092 (2,210)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Tarot - 26,900 (1,787)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

The Garfield Movie (5/19 EA) - 436

 - TMNT EA - 483

 - Lost City EA - 426

 - Barbie EA - 401

 

The Garfield Movie - 9,172 (2,187 TC)

 - Elemental - 10,493 (2,338)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 

Furiosa - 9,497 (2,005 TC)

 - John Wick 4 - 9,400 (2,382)

 - No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 9,550 (2,316)

 - Equalizer 2 - 8,619 (1,860)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

 

Sight - 2,411 (1,361 TC)

 - Jesus Revolution - 2,541 (1,613)

 - Last Night - 2,315 (1,484)

 - Moonfall - 2,260 (1,111)

 - She Said - 2,214 (1,081)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
IF	3,267	105,246		96,952		8,294
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes	3204	69,261	-18.15%	64,192	579.65	5,069	2,903
The Strangers: Chapter 1	2516	51,303		51,285		18
The Fall Guy	3101	40,214	-6.53%	40,062	318.43	152
Back to Black	1,772	27,018		26,937		81
Tarot	1,949	21,829	-22.13%	21,827	121.30	2
Challengers	1,600	17,554	-15.57%	17,516	210.51	38
Unsung Hero	1,569	15,762	9.10%	15,762	176.48	0
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire	1,481	14,231	-23.37%	13,455	140.68	776		765
Kung Fu Panda 4	1088	9,609	-21.77%	9,249	148.98	360		360
Civil War	946	7,163	-52.20%	7,154	120.42	9
I Saw the TV Glow	438	6,326		6,311		15
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	701	5,541	-34.20%	5,535	127.71	6
Abigail	595	3,984	-49.74%	3,967	143.94	17
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare	374	2,490	-57.72%	2,474	117.11	16

 

5/17/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

Opening Weekend Comps

Back to Black - 27,018 (1,772 TC)

 - Blackening - 29,465 (1,683)

 - Honk for Jesus - 26,909 (1,830)

 - Retribution - 26,853 (1,705)

 - She Said - 26,575 (1,863)

 - Mack & Rita - 24,728 (1,686)

 

IF - 105,246 (3,267 TC)

 - Strange World - 105,995 (3,347)

 - Sonic 2 - 111,276 (3,410)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 108,862 (3,417)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334)

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - 51,303 (2,516 TC)

 - Abigail - 55,624 (2,828)

 - Monkey Man - 54,544 (2,662)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947)

 - First Omen - 49,021 (2,816)

 - Firestarter - 48,840 (2,998)

 - Boogeyman - 48,156 (2,789)

 - Forever Purge - 46,917 (2,738)

 

T-1 Week Comps

The Garfield Movie (5/19 EA) - 466

 - TMNT EA - 526

 - Lost City EA - 434

 - Barbie EA - 437

 - Lightyear - 462

 

The Garfield Movie - 51,681 (2,573 TC)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - 58,221 (2,720)

 - Elemental - 59,677 (2,622)

 

Furiosa - 63,623 (2,684 TC)

 - Transformers - 72,589 (2,647)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 70,344 (2,813)

 - Shazam 2 - 64,772 (2,727)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 63,866 (2,826)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 62,380 (2,704)

 - M:I 7 - 58,550 (2,531)

 - Fall Guy - 57,692 (2,725)

 - Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579)

 

Sight - 22,308 (1,576 TC)

 - Unsung Hero - 22,805 (1,817)

 - Evan Hansen - 22,666 (2,163)

 - Jesus Revolution - 22,173 (1,873)

 - 3k Years of Longing - 21,989 (1,690)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Bad Boys 4 (EA) - 64

 - Lost City (EA) - 76

 - Crawdads (EA) - 44

 - Civil War (EA) - 41

 

Bad Boys 4 - 10,973 (1,864 TC)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,492 (2,485)

 - Venom - 12,285 (1,978)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 10,683 (1,917)

 

T-4 Week Previews Comps

Inside Out 2 - 14,445 (2,161 TC)

 - JW Dominion - 18,957 (2,593)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,387 (2,441)

 - Venom - 12,067 (1,934)

[AniNate]

Canton now at 18 for IO2 Thursday, 23 Fri-Sun

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
511	1453	101773	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

COMPS

T-20

(0.693x) of Ghostbusters $3.26M

(0.821x) of Apes $4.11M 
Comps AVG: $3.68M 

Well, this is a pretty good start

[misterpepp]

Okay so some of these dates are pretty far away, mark your calendars:

 

Alien: Romulus is on sale July 29

Longlegs on sale July 1

Twisters on sale June 6