The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

A Quiet Place: Day One T-43: 31.11% Awareness, 50.31% Interest

They Listen T-106: 8.67% Awareness, 36.33% Interest

 

Back to Black T-1: 37.16% Awareness, 40.33% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 28% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

IF T-1: 57.68% Awareness, 50.19% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 59% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-1: 32.28% Awareness, 45.48% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 43% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-8: 41.04% Awareness, 41.87% Interest

Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-8: 54.04% Awareness, 48.54% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M

 

Sight T-8: 14.6% Awareness, 34.15% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M 

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

Twisters T-64: 44.2% Awareness, 54.41% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 35% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 57% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M

T-60 Interest: 83% chance of 30M, 72% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 44% chance of 60M, 33% chance of 70M, 28% chance of 80M, 25% chance of 90M, 22% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 64% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 80M, 18% chance of 100M

[SpiderByte]

It's looking more and more like the rumors of Deadpool going on sale next week are true. What's the point of comparison for something going up this early?

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Bruh why tho 

 

Speaking for myself, there is literally no reason for DP3 to have 60+ days of pre-sales, even if Fandango wasn't acting like a passive-aggressive pissant.  That Fandango *is* being extra-difficult to work with lately is what shifts it from vaguely irritating to actually irksome.

 

If I thought that theaters might cut back a bit on their initial sets, that'd be one thing.  But checking 200+ showtimes every night for two months with little movement is less than ideal in even the best of circumstances (which currently we're not in).

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

It's looking more and more like the rumors of Deadpool going on sale next week are true. What's the point of comparison for something going up this early?

 

Literally nothing, recently. 👍

 

Only MCU entry which comes close was Captain Marvel back in Jan of 2019 (T-58 start date).  Aside from that, the only other Disney release would be TROS starting at T-59.

 

(more below)

 

=========

 

(Ed note:  was already composing this post and was waffling on posting it, but this is a good jumping on point anyway since it largely  talks about the sheer length of pre-sales — ignore the rest of the commentary if one wishes)

 

Having thought about it over night a bit/this morning the one really irritating thing about DP3 going on sale next Monday is that this is gonna be the longest pre-sale window for a major Disney release since The Last Jedi all the way back in 2017 (which looks to be around 70 days if a cursory check of when tickets went on sale is correct).

 

Hell, it's gonna be the longest major release of *any* studio since Fast X's execrable 99 day pre-sale window.  Have had some that came close-ish, but probably the most on-point recent comparison will be Jurassic World 3's 43 day pre-sale window, which is still over three weeks shorter than this one.

 

I mention this because the sheer length of the pre-sale window will very likely depress the D1/D2/D3 sales somewhat.  Maybe not much, but you can't tell me there'd be no difference between a T-21 launch, a T-29 launch, a T-35 launch and a T-65 launch.  Sure, it's a matter of smaller degrees when comparing something like a BP2 (starting at T-38), but that extra month is probably gonna slice some numbers off the top of the pile, especially after the first day.

 

The ultra-irritating thing will be is if DP3 has a relatively soft launch, then we get to listen to ****TWO MONTHS OF ARGUMENTS**** about how much the extra month of pre-sales is mattering along with the R-rating on top of the "normal" CBM fatigue/MCU bitching.

 

...

 

Whoever the hell in Burbank who thought this was a great idea needs a real stern talking to.

Edited May 17 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

15 hours ago, Relevation said:

66 day presale window? That's pretty wack 

9am EST for those wanting an exact time.

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Whoever the hell in Burbank who thought this was a great idea needs a real stern talking to.

 

   

[SpiderByte]

Wild shot: could Deadpool maybe be moving up? Infinity War moved up a week from May to April in March of that year, so it's not impossible they'd move it this far out...

Edited May 17 by SpiderByte

[charlie Jatinder]

Why open it before Inside Out 2 is only issue otherwise I feel its fine.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

   

 

 

==========

 

Eh.  Probably be fine.  Have to tell you though, two months worth of DISCOURSE around any movie's pre-sales is enough to drive someone mad.  MAD I SAY!!!! 

[SpiderByte]

Two months out I can only assume they're expecting some Eras/No Way Home/Endgame type site crashes

[keysersoze123]

Captain Marvel had very strong sales on its OD despite early start. So OD is all about fans. It does not matter if you start 2 weeks before or 9 weeks. They will still book. So it would be interesting to compare OD sales not only with CM for @Porthos but also the big openers in 2022/23 period from MTC perspective. 

 

1) DS2 - 230k ish

2) Thor 4 - 136k ish

3) Wakanda - 110k

4) Ant 3 - 88K

5) Guardians 3 - 70k ish. 

 

I wonder where Deadpool 3 will land. Anything is fine as long as it does pull in a Marvels 🙂

 

Would Disney also go for any early shows? Like the trilogy shows and many others. 

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Literally nothing, recently. 👍

 

Only MCU entry which comes close was Captain Marvel back in Jan of 2019 (T-58 start date).  Aside from that, the only other Disney release would be TROS starting at T-59.

 

(more below)

 

=========

 

(Ed note:  was already composing this post and was waffling on posting it, but this is a good jumping on point anyway since it largely  talks about the sheer length of pre-sales — ignore the rest of the commentary if one wishes)

 

Having thought about it over night a bit/this morning the one really irritating thing about DP3 going on sale next Monday is that this is gonna be the longest pre-sale window for a major Disney release since The Last Jedi all the way back in 2017 (which looks to be around 70 days if a cursory check of when tickets went on sale is correct).

 

Hell, it's gonna be the longest major release of *any* studio since Fast X's execrable 99 day pre-sale window.  Have had some that came close-ish, but probably the most on-point recent comparison will be Jurassic World 3's 43 day pre-sale window, which is still over three weeks shorter than this one.

 

I mention this because the sheer length of the pre-sale window will very likely depress the D1/D2/D3 sales somewhat.  Maybe not much, but you can't tell me there'd be no difference between a T-21 launch, a T-29 launch, a T-35 launch and a T-65 launch.  Sure, it's a matter of smaller degrees when comparing something like a BP2 (starting at T-38), but that extra month is probably gonna slice some numbers off the top of the pile, especially after the first day.

 

The ultra-irritating thing will be is if DP3 has a relatively soft launch, then we get to listen to ****TWO MONTHS OF ARGUMENTS**** about how much the extra month of pre-sales is mattering along with the R-rating on top of the "normal" CBM fatigue/MCU bitching.

 

...

 

Whoever the hell in Burbank who thought this was a great idea needs a real stern talking to.

I thunk they saw you doing nothing these days and wanted to keep you busy for 2 months. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Captain Marvel had very strong sales on its OD despite early start. So OD is all about fans. It does not matter if you start 2 weeks before or 9 weeks. They will still book. So it would be interesting to compare OD sales not only with CM for @Porthos but also the big openers in 2022/23 period from MTC perspective. 

 

1) DS2 - 230k ish

2) Thor 4 - 136k ish

3) Wakanda - 110k

4) Ant 3 - 88K

5) Guardians 3 - 70k ish. 

 

I wonder where Deadpool 3 will land. Anything is fine as long as it does pull in a Marvels 🙂

 

Would Disney also go for any early shows? Like the trilogy shows and many others. 

100K be nice though 75-100K be fine as well.

[charlie Jatinder]

Blame Legion.

 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Two months out I can only assume they're expecting some Eras/No Way Home/Endgame type site crashes

 

Only reason to expect any sort of crashes is because of the rickety infrastructure for Fandango. 👍

(it's actually not having enough server capacity being booked ahead of time + quality of webpage design, but I ain't feeling particularly charitable toward Fandango lately)

Edited May 17 by Porthos

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

24 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Wild shot: could Deadpool maybe be moving up? Infinity War moved up a week from May to April in March of that year, so it's not impossible they'd move it this far out...

Only spot I think it could maybe get is July 12. At least one that doesn’t require it to go head to head with another big movie/risk losing IMAX. Even then it would still have to be in between Despicable Me and Twisters (though in that scenario I’m sure the latter would move back a week).

[el sid]

IF, counted today (before 9am EST) for today had 627 sold tickets. 

Up very nice 49% since yesterday (afternoon). It missed my goal of 50% by 4 tickets ;).

When it comes to Garfield I will relax if it doesn't have the biggest numbers next Monday. Because IF had on Sunday not more than 163 sold tickets in my theaters...

 

So the jump was very good compared to other films which I counted on Friday for Friday but that were action films, horror and so on. I don't have family film comps counted on Friday for Friday. I found the number of Clifford counted on Thursday for Friday (a Wednesday release/4.3M true Friday/16.6M OW) and that film had 152 sold tickets which pushes my true Friday average for IF to 7.3M (so the comparison number is 11.9M for IF but that's probably too good). Now add the good jump till today to the 7.3M, where could it land? 9M as @katnisscinnaplex's proposed seems reasonable to me.

 

Maybe they fudged a little bit as they did with Challengers? I mean, normally if @charlie Jatinder says it's 1.8M+, it's 1.8M+.

Edited May 17 by el sid

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

3 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Okay so some of these dates are pretty far away, mark your calendars:

 

Alien: Romulus is on sale July 29

Longlegs on sale July 1

Twisters on sale June 6

First two sound right but I am a little surprised at Twisters. I think that movie has the chance to be big but didn't expect sales over a month out.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, el sid said:

IF, counted today (before 9am EST) for today had 627 sold tickets. 

Up very nice 49%. It missed my goal of 50% by 4 tickets ;).

When it comes to Garfield I will relax if it doesn't have the biggest numbers next Monday. Because IF had on Sunday not more than 163 sold tickets in my theaters...

 

So the jump was very good compared to other films which I counted on Friday for Friday but that were action films, horror and so on. I don't have family film comps counted on Friday for Friday. I found the number of Clifford counted on Thursday for Friday (a Wednesday release/4.3M true Friday/16.6M OW) and that film had 152 sold tickets which pushes my true Friday average for IF to 7.3M (so the comparison number is 11.9M for IF but that's probably too good). Now add the good jump till today to the 7.3M, where could it land? 9M as @katnisscinnaplex's proposed seems reasonable to me.

 

Maybe they fudged a little bit as they did with Challengers? I mean, normally when @charlie Jatinder says it's 1.8M+, it's 1.8M+.

It’s fine. I think I put + out of habbit and a possible Canada overindexing. 1.75 be fine.

[AniNate]

6 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

First two sound right but I am a little surprised at Twisters. I think that movie has the chance to be big but didn't expect sales over a month out.

 

They're really leaning hard into the whole "redneck blockbuster" angle of it all with that big country music soundtrack