The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

I confess I have still found movies more enjoyable to talk about when the superheroes aren't dominating the conversation, even if this year has made it apparent that we need some more of those fanboy-driven tentpoles (not necessarily comic book extended universes though)

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I think deep down everyone who said that knew it wasn’t true, it just sounds better than “I don’t like this.”

 

So far the only big movies have been Dune 2, GxK, Kung Fu Panda 4, and maybe Apes (all IP films, big surprise). With a silver medal for The Beekeeper and Civil War for being original films that crossed 100M. But those aren’t really the types of films that people claimed were being “choked out.”

What happened with the Fall Guy should prove how full of shit people are when they say this stuff. If people are sick of CBM's then having a movie open up the summer that is not one of those and had good buzz and is a just a fun old school blockbuster should have been enough. But people still went eh I can wait for streaming.

[The Wild Eric]

Moderation

 

Not the Marvel thread.

[YM!]

Any idea on what we’re expecting for DP3 presales wise. Feel like an earlier start means a more diminishing opening for more robust jumps later. Feel like somewhere around Guardians 3 OD is right.

[HummingLemon496]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
646	2489	127458	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

39

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-26

(2.361x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $8.97M

Comps average: $8.97M

 

Definitely the biggest rollout in showings since I've started tracking Florida. Bigger than even Dune 2 and it's only T-26

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/12/2024 at 10:27 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	99	12	53	12727	0.42
Sunday May 19 EA: 9 theaters	9	21	213	954	22.33
TOTALS:	108	33	266	13681	1.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		26	6	49.06
Alamo:		2	2	3.77
Other chains:		25	4	47.17

 

EA Comps:

0.58x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-6): $935k

0.98x Fall Guy (T-6): $785k

1.61x Challengers (T-8): $885k

0.93x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-6): $560k

0.26x Dune Part 2 EA: $510k

0.57x Trolls (T-6): $665k

0.47x MI7 (T-6): $940k

 

EA Average: $755k

 

Still not really accelerating, and the EA is falling against comps

 

Minnesota Early Access:

 

The Garfield Movie:

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sunday May 19 EA: 9 theaters	9	116	389	954	40.78

 

EA Comps:

0.66x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $1.05 Million

1.05x Fall Guy: $845k

1.41x Challengers: $775k

1.06x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-6): $635k

1.07x Wish: $535k

0.34x Trolls (T-6): $400k

0.4x MI7 (T-6): $800k

 

EA Average: $720k

 

The two comps that are most helpful, Wish and Trolls (not PLF, EA on a weekend, family movies) are both pointing to a lot lower than average, so I'm inclined to give those a lot more weight. I'm thinking $500-600k for EA. Just hope it gets reported tbh

[filmlover]

Tickets for Deadpool & Wolverine are going on sale already?! Feels like this is the first time a non-Universal movie has gone this early for presales.

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-21, Day 1):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	122	67	67	20518	0.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		62	62	92.54
MTC1:		59	59	88.06
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	8	11.94

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.89x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $5.9 Million

0.96x Fall Guy: $3.02 Million

0.23x GxK: $2.13 Million

0.91x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.07 Million

 

These numbers are from last Thursday, as per my post this morning. This is a more walk-up movie a la Aquaman or Apes so I think it's a pretty good start

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Tickets for Deadpool & Wolverine are going on sale already?! Feels like this is the first time a non-Universal movie has gone this early for presales.

 

Longest length for Disney since The Last Jedi (T-70).  Besides that one, the other long runners since then are TROS (T-59) and Captain Marvel (T-58).

 

Edited May 19 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Only number that matters is OD presales. after few days it will hit a trough and then it will plod along until social media reactions and reviews hit close to release. I think we can kind of predict its OW after its OD presales. 

[misterpepp]

Summer Camp on sale May 23

[keysersoze123]

From the betting markets. 

 

[Porthos]

On 5/17/2024 at 11:38 PM, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23721	24051	330	1.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

T-27 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Shaz 2	200.00		47	165		0/93	15378/15543	1.06%		1663	19.84%		6.80m
TLM	53.92		68	612		0/154	21382/21994	2.78%		6561	5.03%		5.55m
Barbie	40.84		41	808		0/96	11809/12617	6.40%		12077	2.73%		9.23m
Wonka	333.33		26	99		0/109	18836/18935	0.52%		1975	16.71%		11.67m
Aqua 2	157.14		16	210		0/78	13744/13954	1.50%		2629	12.55%		7.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     89/10075  [0.88% sold]
Matinee:   34/2674  [1.27% | 10.30% of all tickets sold]
3D:            19/3852  [0.49% | 5.76% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         142/9686  [1.47% | 43.03% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

What a strange pre-sale pattern.  Yeah, I gots nothing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Threw in Shazam 2 and Barbie simply due to having nothing suitable at T-27, and I wanted something that was backloaded in pre-sales.  Was prepared to make a smart-aleck comment about the unsuitability of the pre-sale pattern of Barbie, but after today's update...

 

...

 

Okay, yeah.  Still no.  But what a weird pattern.  Was there some sort of promo that dropped today that I'm not aware of?  Either way, just a great day (for this type of movie at this point in pre-sales).

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23710	24051	341	1.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

11

 

T-26 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Shaz 2	165.53		41	206		0/93	15337/15543	1.33%		1663	20.51%		5.63m
TLM	50.82		59	671		0/154	21323/21994	3.05%		6561	5.20%		5.23m
Barbie	39.06		65	873		0/96	11753/12626	6.91%		12077	2.82%		8.83m
Wonka	307.21		12	111		0/112	19176/19287	0.58%		1975	17.27%		10.75m
Aqua 2	157.87		6	216		0/78	13741/13957	1.55%		2629	12.97%		7.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       87/10075  [0.86% sold]
Matinee:    34/2674  [1.27% | 9.97% of all tickets sold]
3D:            18/3852   [0.47% | 5.28% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        144/9686   [1.49% | 42.23% of all tickets sold]

 

=======

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

But I repeat myself.

 

FWIW, there were about six or so solitary Regal seats over a couple of theaters which went bye-bye (Regal will "hold" a seat when someone is looking at a showing and but hasn't actually paid for the seat yet and it can take a few minutes for the "hold" to disappear) so it very likely that the total last night was "only" 54 and tonight's 17.  But everything else was as expected with no errors in the seat maps.  So, I stand by my "¯\_(ツ)_/¯".

 

...

 

Maybe a bunch of people who were buying tickets for If (or even more likely were reminded about kids-friendly movies thanks to stories about If) bought tickets yesterday when they got their tickets for If?  Yeah, I gots nothing.  Random spikes are random.

 

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Longest length for Disney since The Last Jedi (T-70).  Besides that one, the other long runners since then are TROS (T-59) and Captain Marvel (T-58).

 

Man, TLJ had such a crazy huge OW. $220M in 2017 is insane.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, T-6 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 105

New Sales: 6

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 8/3

Early Evening: 64/7

Late Evening: 33/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 19/4

IMAX: 72/6

VIP: 11/5

4DX: 3/2

 

Comps

0.160x Dune 2 for $1.6M

1.265x KOTPOTA for $6.3M

0.461x HG:BoSS for $2.6M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

A bit of a step back today 

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, T-5 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 111

New Sales: 6

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 8/4

Early Evening: 67/9

Late Evening: 36/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 19/6

IMAX: 72/6

VIP: 11/5

4DX: 3/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.156x Dune 2 for $1.6M

1.110x KOTPOTA for $5.6M

0.446x HG:BoSS for $2.6M

 

Average: $3.2M

 

It's losing pace. It might be the long weekend effect though, with this being a holiday weekend.

[vafrow]

On 5/11/2024 at 8:50 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-13, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 4

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 4/3

Early Evening: 0/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 4/4

3D Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

EA - Sunday May 19

Sales: 10

Showtimes: 2

Theatres: 2

 

Comps

0.074x KFP4 for $0.3M

0.167x Wonka for $0.6M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

At least there's some sales on the board. Comps don't paint a pretty picture though. EA shows are doing okay. Maybe that helps kick start something.

  

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-5, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 3/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 1/4

3D Regular: 3/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

EA - Sunday May 19

Sales: 50

Showtimes: 2

Theatres: 2

 

Comps

0.026x KFP4 for $0.1M

0.071x Wonka for $0.3M

 

Average: $0.3M

 

EA sales aren't bad, but previews are still extremely slow. This is clearly going to be a family weekend type film, but I'm surprised we're not seeing anything for previews yet.

[vafrow]

On 5/16/2024 at 6:48 AM, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, D2, T-29 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 2/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 2/6

IMAX: 0/4

VIP: 0/4

 

No new sales. Whatever glitches in the system on day 1 didn't push sales to day 2.

 

I still think the lack of base ticket options will push families to wait. Cineplex has jacked up the cost of premium formats, plus they're throwing in an increase for opening weekend of major releases. It adds up quickly for families. 

 

Inside Out 2, T-26 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 10

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.7

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 6/7

Late Evening: 4/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 4/6

IMAX: 0/4

VIP: 6/4

 

 Comps

0.833x KFP4 for $3.2M

Zero sales for Garfield at T-26

 

I'm surprised this hasn't been stronger. At this stage, I don't expect we'll see much activity until final week. 

[vafrow]

On 5/17/2024 at 6:55 AM, vafrow said:

Bad Boys Ride or Die, D1 / T-21 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 5/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 2/6

VIP: 2/4

 

D1 Comps

1.250x KOTPOTA for $6.3M

0.106x HG:BoSS for $0.6M

 

Comps are not the greatest. One, surprisingly hard to find a comparable film with similar srart on sales. POTA started at T-31. HG:BoSS started at around T-15.

 

Plus, I think ticket buying patterns have changed pretty drastically in my market over the last few months. There's very little up front sales compared to late 2023. Dune was the exception, and I'm eager to see what Deadpool and Wolverine does.

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-19 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 17

New Sales: 12

Growth: 240%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 11/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 7/7

IMAX: 6/6

VIP: 4/4

 

T-19 Comps

0.567x KOTPOTA for $2.8M

0.680x GB:FE for $3.2M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

Switched to T minus comps, so it's changed things quite a bit.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

If - 1,443/14,695 (97 shows)

 - Super Pets - 1.021x (7.89m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.403x (7.53m)

 - Minions - .228x (7.44m)

 

Adjusted for 8.25m Fri gives me ~10.75m for Saturday 

 

Strangers - 732/10,060 (72 shows)

 - Abigail - 3.183x (12m)

 - Tarot - 4.383x (10.38m)

 - Don't Worry - 1.21x (7.01m)

 - Black Phone - .596x (4.48m)

 

Adjusted for 3.8m Fri would be ~4.45m Saturday

Santikos Tracking

 

If - 967/14,707 (99 shows)

 - Super Pets - 1.028x (6.11m)

 - Paws of Fury - 4.132x (6.85m)

 - Minions - .192x (5.03m)

 

Adjusted for 13.5m Sat gives me ~10.5m for Sunday

 

Strangers - 338/8,500 (61 shows)

 - Abigail - 2.364x (5.9m)

 - Tarot - 3.8x (6.02m)

 - Don't Worry - .939x (3.86m)

 - Black Phone - .36x (2.11m)

 

Adjusted for 4m Sat would be ~2.2m Sunday