The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Also The Bikeriders showtimes are up, starts at 2:00 that Thursday.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Looks like really good start to Deadpool Wolverine! Haven't had a chance to look yet because my other tracking project that I've been working on over the last nine months finally wrapped up with an 8.15.  

[Shawn Robbins]

Light update this week, but adding on Bikeriders. Have a happy Memorial Day, everyone.

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/4-week-tracking-jeff-nichols-the-bikeriders-could-draw-healthy-counter-programmer-results-in-late-june/

[whatsupdoc]

23 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Light update this week, but adding on Bikeriders. Have a happy Memorial Day, everyone.

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/4-week-tracking-jeff-nichols-the-bikeriders-could-draw-healthy-counter-programmer-results-in-late-june/

We lowered our forecast to $1M-$3M for BIKERIDERS.  Awareness and interest are frightfully low. 

[Porthos]

3.5m previews for Furiosa, 1.9m for Garfield.

 

Sacramento was a harbinger after all when it came to Furiosa (and indeed most of my comps were pointing right at that range, as I said with the meme pic).

 

Not sure if anyone nailed it or not, but all the markets did point to Furiosa being a falling knife (which makes it difficult to catch [hence the simile]).  Sad, but is what it is.

Edited May 24 by Porthos

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

3.5m previews for Furiosa, 1.9m for Garfield.

 

Sacramento was a harbinger after all when it came to Furiosa (and indeed most of my comps were pointing right at that range, as I said with the meme pic).

 

Not sure if anyone nailed it or not, but all the markets did point to Furiosa being a falling knife (which makes it difficult to catch [hence the simile]).  Sad, but is what it is.

 

Is the $1.9M for Garfield including the Sunday EA shows?

 

My market was well off on Garfield, but my comp average was actually spot on for Furiosa, but was a composite of things ranging from $2.0 to $5.2. A little bit of a wide range makes me reluctant to pound my chest too hard on that.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

3.5m previews for Furiosa, 1.9m for Garfield.

 

Sacramento was a harbinger after all when it came to Furiosa (and indeed most of my comps were pointing right at that range, as I said with the meme pic).

 

Not sure if anyone nailed it or not, but all the markets did point to Furiosa being a falling knife (which makes it difficult to catch [hence the simile]).  Sad, but is what it is.

$3.5M is pretty bad. 9 years of inflation and it couldn't even beat Fury Road's $3.7M

 

Welp, I guess the BOT tracking team saw this coming with how presales were collapsing. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Is the $1.9M for Garfield including the Sunday EA shows?

 

 

Checked all three Trades, and aside from Variety saying it was a total of 1.925m (that extra .025 is very important after all 😉), none of them have said anything aside from the $1.9m total.

 

Perhaps @Shawn Robbins can ask around/already knows?

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/19/2024 at 5:39 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
529	1615	104351	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

73

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

COMPS

T-18

(0.731x) of Ghostbusters $3.44M

(0.894x) of Apes $4.47M 
Comps AVG: $3.96M 

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
532	1981	104916	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

80

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

COMPS

T-13

(0.712x) of Ghostbusters $3.35M

(1.032x) of Apes $5.13M 

(1.098x) of Furiosa $3.84M 
Comps AVG: $4.11M 

[misterpepp]

Quiet Place Day One on sale May 30

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/18/2024 at 7:39 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
646	2489	127458	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

39

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-26

(2.361x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $8.97M

Comps average: $8.97M

 

Definitely the biggest rollout in showings since I've started tracking Florida. Bigger than even Dune 2 and it's only T-26

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
658	2934	130075	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

COMPS

T-20

(2.480x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $9.42M

(4.240x) of Garfield $8.06M

Comps average: $8.74M

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Quiet Place Day One on sale May 30

 

*looks at current tracking schedule*

*looks at this and DM4 on the horizon*

 

Sure do hope that the refining I've been doing with my Bag of Tricks™ continues to hold. 

Edited May 24 by Porthos

[Maggie]

25 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
532	1981	104916	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

80

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

COMPS

T-13

(0.712x) of Ghostbusters $3.35M

(1.032x) of Apes $5.13M 

(1.098x) of Furiosa $3.84M 
Comps AVG: $4.11M 

What would this mean for opening weekend?

[Relevation]

Did Angel report preview grosses for Sight?

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

What would this mean for opening weekend?

$40M+

[TheFlatLannister]

Getting $7.14M Friday for Furiosa as of 8pm est

$4.5M+ Garfield 

Edited May 25 by TheFlatLannister

[emoviefan]

21 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

$40M+

Well that would be another disappointment. This should be doing 50+ easily. But who knows at this point.  Since The GA seems to be allergic to theaters right now.

[vafrow]

On 5/22/2024 at 7:13 PM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, D3, T-64, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1371

New Sales: 99

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 33.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 106/13

Early Evening: 772/14

Late Evening: 493/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1207/21)

Regular: 6/1

Dolby: 288/5

IMAX: 665/4

VIP: 242/8

4DX: 6/3

 

3D (164/20)

Regular: 19/2

Dolby: 55/4

IMAX: 27/2

VIP: 63/6

 

Comps 

8.309x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $83.1M

2.775x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $33.3M

5.022x Day 7 of The Marvels for $33.1M

0.469x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $17.7M

 

Average: $41.8M

 

8% growth at this stage is very positive. I expect another drop tomorrow, but I'm probably not going to touch this until the weekend at this stage.

 

I'm comping high, and without a proper MCU comparison (Marvels doesn't count), it's hard to gauge, but I feel this is just doing really well here.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, D5, T-62, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1539

New Sales since D3: 168

Growth: 13%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 37.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 121/13

Early Evening: 891/14

Late Evening: 527/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1342/21)

Regular: 6/1

Dolby: 312/5

IMAX: 738/4

VIP: 278/8

4DX: 8/3

 

3D (197/20)

Regular: 26/2

Dolby: 80/4

IMAX: 27/2

VIP: 64/6

 

Comps 

8.896x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $89.0M

3.000x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $36.0M

5.637x Day 7 of The Marvels for $37.2M

0.494x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $18.6M

 

Average: $45.2M

 

Probably wasn't necessary to do an update on this at this point, but was kind of curious. 12% over two days is pretty strong once the rush passes. We're not at the bottom of the curve yet it seems.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, D5, T-62, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1539

New Sales since D3: 168

Growth: 13%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 37.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 121/13

Early Evening: 891/14

Late Evening: 527/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1342/21)

Regular: 6/1

Dolby: 312/5

IMAX: 738/4

VIP: 278/8

4DX: 8/3

 

3D (197/20)

Regular: 26/2

Dolby: 80/4

IMAX: 27/2

VIP: 64/6

 

Comps 

8.896x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $89.0M

3.000x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $36.0M

5.637x Day 7 of The Marvels for $37.2M

0.494x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $18.6M

 

Average: $45.2M

 

Probably wasn't necessary to do an update on this at this point, but was kind of curious. 12% over two days is pretty strong once the rush passes. We're not at the bottom of the curve yet it seems.

 

For long releases of MCU/SW Saga calabier, it usually takes about 6 to 8 days for the initial wave to stop.

 

For instance, here is TROS's first few weeks:

 

The Rise of Skywalker
T-59:	8308
T-58:	1497
T-57	348
T-56	196
T-55	161
T-54	111
T-53	127
T-52	118
T-51	70
T-50	52
T-49	30
T-48	77
T-47	87
T-46	49
T-45	77

 

DIdn't really "bottom out" until D9 or so (T-51) and then would bounce around from 30 to 80 for the next three-plus weeks, with the occasional spike above 90.  Then at T-21, more or less, it started up its acceleration again.

 

Can see similar patterns for MCU long runners.  One of the reasons I'm still posting D-x numbers against various MCU films.

Edited May 25 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

 

LOL.

Minions 2 did $140M 5-days inc Jul 4. I would expect under that for DM4. 

If somehow it does $120M 3 days aka probably $185M 5 days, it would be targeting $500M DOM.

Edited May 25 by charlie Jatinder