The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

The upside is late June was not very good last year either, and if IO2 word-of-mouth ends up as enthusiastic as it seems to be then we shouldn't be losing much more ground, and DM4 should give another nice boost beginning of July

 

Can only hope AQP Minus One fares a lot better than Mad Max Minus One

 

 

Edited June 12 by AniNate

[Insomnia]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

The upside is late June was not very good last year either, and if IO2 word-of-mouth ends up as enthusiastic as it seems to be then we shouldn't be losing much more ground, and DM4 should give another nice boost beginning of July

 

Can only hope AQP Minus One fares a lot better than Mad Max Minus One

 

 

Yeah late June last year was weak but it'll still come out comfortably ahead. The June 23 weekend saw No Hard Feelings open to $15 million and Asteroid City expand wide to $9 million. Will The Bikeriders (the only wide release this year on the equivalent weekend) even match NHF $15M? Then Dial of Destiny opened on June 30 go $60.4 million and Ruby Gillman to $5.5 million. I doubt AQP and Horizon is can match that on the 28th this year. I think there's also an anime movie releasing that weekend so they'll get some help there.

 

We'll see how much ground we can make up in July but it's really the last quarter - even the last 3rd - of the year that will make up a lot of the difference.

[jeffthehat]

On 6/11/2024 at 3:12 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Inside Out 2 T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
2098	35517	207

TC = 27

Comps

1.31x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $6.2m

4.94x IF T-2 = $8.9m

1.10x Godzilla x Kong NE T-2 = $11.0m

3.57x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-2 = $13.6m

 

AVG = $9.93m

Indiana

Inside Out 2 T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
2763	41092	270

TC = 27

Comps

1.53x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $7.2m

5.56x IF T-1 = $10.0m

1.19x Godzilla x Kong NE T-1 = $11.9m

3.41x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-1 = $13.0m

 

AVG = $10.53m

---

Really good pace down the home stretch. The average of IF/KFP4 has been holding steady, so wouldn't shock me if this ends up playing like a normal family movie. 

Edited June 12 by jeffthehat

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal Local

INSIDE OUT 2: 135/3499

 

Garfield: $8.02m
Migration: $24.31m
Trolls 3: $19.61m
Ruby Gillman: $13.98m
Elementals: $11.57m
Encanto: $13.5m

 

Elementals (Disney+ Summer) is most likely the best comp. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
188	3804	33554	11.3%

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.814x) of Little Mermaid $8.39M

(3.693x) of Elemental $8.86M

(2.511x) of Wonka $8.79M

Comps average: $8.68M

 

Comps starting to converge around $9ish

Probably over $10m by T-0 because pace is excellent

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
197	4575	34941	13.1%

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.858x) of Little Mermaid $8.84M

(3.648x) of Elemental $8.76M

(2.688x) of Wonka $9.41M

Comps average: $9.00M

 

Yep over $9M now. Should be $9.5Mish by tomorrow 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
817	9613	163281	5.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2004

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

125

 

COMPS

T-2

(3.673x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $13.96M

(1.712x) of Ghostbusters $8.05M

Comps average: $11.01M

 

Well, that went 0 to 100 real quick. Phenomenal pace and this is heading to a BIG final day 

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
830	12044	166425	7.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2431

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

COMPS

T-1

(3.976x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $15.11M

(1.798x) of Ghostbusters $8.45M

Comps average: $11.78M

 

Amazing pace. Early projection would be $10M+

[HummingLemon496]

35 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
197	4575	34941	13.1%

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.858x) of Little Mermaid $8.84M

(3.648x) of Elemental $8.76M

(2.688x) of Wonka $9.41M

Comps average: $9.00M

 

Yep over $9M now. Should be $9.5Mish by tomorrow 

Which movie is this?

 

Edit: Nevermind it's Inside Out 2

Edited June 12 by HummingLemon496

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Which movie is this?

Terrifier 3. 

[Flip]

On 6/9/2024 at 11:01 PM, Flip said:

Sunday fan event for Inside Out 2 (T-7): 

 

3 showtimes/122 tix sold

Sunday fan event for Inside Out 2 (T-4)

 

3 showtimes/153 tix sold (+31) 

 

not much growth left since all the showings are at least 65% sold 

[Potiki]

 

https://www.activaterewards.com/disneyplusperks
 

Don’t know if this  promotion has been mentioned by someone already but could add to sales. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/8/2024 at 7:08 PM, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1(T-19) - 18567/515380 379747.41 2512 shows

 

This includes fan shows as well which is on the same day. Just previews for now and for a movie not releasing for 19 days, its really good. 

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews - 21441/515882 437292.61 2519 shows

Friday - 13516/960873 263538.18 4702 shows

 

At this point its just coasting. Not much of a pace. Let us see how things go closer to release. 

 

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, Flip said:

Horizon tickets are on sale. As of right now it doesn’t look like the release will be that wide

 

I did a check at MTC4. It's in 76 theatres nationwide, about 50% of their locations. They could expand that, but it does look like it's not going to be that wide.

[YM!]

Inside Out 2 - SE Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Sample - 6/12/24

 

 

Inside Out 2	6/13/24	T-4	12	2D, 3D, PLF (2D and 3D)	35	12	19	52	118
		T-3	12	2D, 3D, PLF (2D and 3D)	41	20	26	75	132
		T-2	16	2D, 3D, PLF (2D and 3D)	55	56	39	83	233
		T-18 hours	16	2D, 3D, PLF (2D and 3D)	91	98	88	144	421

 

 

My god - the growth and pace for this one so good. It’s already doing over 3x of IF’s T-8 hours and 3.73x Garfield’s T-4 hours with EA. Assuming the fat cat did 400K previews with $2.3M total previews, it puts IO2 at 10.8M previews. Thinking previews for this will be around 10.5M +/- 0.5M.

Edited June 13 by YM!

[Speedorito]

15 minutes ago, Potiki said:

 

https://www.activaterewards.com/disneyplusperks
 

Don’t know if this  promotion has been mentioned by someone already but could add to sales. 

That’s interesting, but it’s limited to one code per subscriber. Could help bring the cost down for families though.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Potiki said:

 

https://www.activaterewards.com/disneyplusperks
 

Don’t know if this  promotion has been mentioned by someone already but could add to sales. 

 

1 minute ago, Speedorito said:

That’s interesting, but it’s limited to one code per subscriber. Could help bring the cost down for families though.

 

Lasts for a month plus as well (third week of July).  Presuming this works with matinee/Discount Tuesday showtimes, means one could watch it for free. And nearly free depending on how much DT PLF tickets cost at one's locals.

 

Well, at least for one person that is.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Final BOT tracking and forecast for IO2... finally starting to feel like summer.

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-disney-and-pixars-inside-out-2-late-tracking-accelerates-pacing-for-likely-100-million-domestic-launch/

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/

The summer releases are summering and not imposters like Fall Guys and Furiosas.

[Potiki]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Lasts for a month plus as well (third week of July).  Presuming this works with matinee/Discount Tuesday showtimes, means one could watch it for free. And nearly free depending on how much DT PLF tickets cost at one's locals.

 

Well, at least for one person that is.

I think Disney is running this for other summer movies as well by sounds of “per Disney+ subscriber, per film” 

 

Also this reminds me of the Maul/Disney+/Box Office meme you posted about Moana 2 lol

Edited June 13 by Potiki

[TheFlatLannister]

Looks like Inside out 2 and Deadpool will be a massive one-two punch from Disney after a bad 2023 year

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The summer releases are summering and not imposters like Fall Guys and Furiosas.

Poor May is also helping June releases. I feel if DP3 opened on May first weekend and Apes opened on Memorial Day weekend, Bad Boys would have probably done 10-15% lower than what it did.

Could see IO2 get a boost of $5-10M or so as well.

[AniNate]

I mean I don't think Garfield or IF were ever going to be massive hits. Inside Out 2's buzz can be fully attributed to being Inside Out 2 I'm sure.