The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 Final

 

Previews - 25877/75716 (319 showings) $320K

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $15.1M

 

Wonka - $18.2M

Haunted Mansion - $15.5M

These are pretty useless comps but shows the sort of performance was here.

 

Minions - $12.1M (gross comp $13.5M)

Somewhat better.

Lightyear - $10.5M

Elemental - $12M

Minions is on the point here. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, KnightofNight237 said:

"is reporting a projection of $200M-$239M, which the service actually believes is conservative." "The tracking numbers for men we are told are actually higher than that of Spider-Man: No Way Home six weeks from release; that movie ranks as the second best domestic opening of all-time at $260.1M. Note the projections for Deadpool & Wolverine could actually climb."

WOAH That would be truly amazing, barring good reception, this is definitely in play

hmm. Definitely can happen with good reception but presales are not at No Way Home or Dr Strange 2 levels. Those 2 were off the charts from Day 1. This is somewhere near Thor 4 levels. 

[thajdikt]

Disappointment is set up if it doesn’t make it 200M. Would need really good WOM for that. 

 

[SpiderByte]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

hmm. Definitely can happen with good reception but presales are not at No Way Home or Dr Strange 2 levels. Those 2 were off the charts from Day 1. This is somewhere near Thor 4 levels. 

But they also weren't on sale two full months in advance.

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

But they also weren't on sale two full months in advance.

They will hit the comps once we are into the presale cycle of those movies. it does not matter. Deadpool 3 wont be in the ballpark of No Way Home even after 2 months of presales. At this point its not  even moving 1% a day. Long cycles are irrelevant. 1st week and last week are the only relevant days for presales. 

[Youngstar]

The problem with the DxW prediction here is clearly that the quorum has not tracked any R rated superhero movies of this size before. So they have to comp against Pg-13 ones and it gives this number. But it will be lower than that, because of the R rating.

[justnumbers]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

They will hit the comps once we are into the presale cycle of those movies. it does not matter. Deadpool 3 wont be in the ballpark of No Way Home even after 2 months of presales. At this point its not  even moving 1% a day. Long cycles are irrelevant. 1st week and last week are the only relevant days for presales. 

No one is expecting it to do 260M 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

No one is expecting it to do 260M 

Ok. I would not want to argue about this now. Let us do the comps only those movies hit their presale cycles. 

[whatsupdoc]

Here's how TQ got to $200M

 

https://thequorum.com/can-deadpool-wolverine-open-above-200m-it-certainly-looks-possible/

 

 

[Grand Cine]

I think 170-180M for D&W is the good target at this point if the reception from Critics and Public is good .

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Inside Out 2

T-0

(4.277x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $16.25M

(2.216x) of Ghostbusters $10.42M

(1.262x) of Dune 2 $11.74M

Comps average: $12.80M

3 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-inside-out-2-1235973432/

 

$13M for IO2

[RamblinRed]

So what do people have for True Friday for IO2?

 

[cannastop]

Just now, RamblinRed said:

So what do people have for True Friday for IO2?

 

Well considering that it's not even past noon on the west coast... you can only guess. My guess is $45m

[todos]

50+ true Fri

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/31/2024 at 1:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-27 *first 24 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
449	1284	86774	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 1:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

(1.235x) of Kung Fu Panda $4.69M

(0.837x) of Apes $4.18M 
Comps AVG: $4.44M 

 

* Kung Fu panda may seem like a crazy comp, but mostly added because it was backloaded 

 

Pretty good start, but nothing crazy or outright telling me a big breakout is coming. 

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
484	2128	95178	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-13

(1.179x) of Furosia $4.13M

(1.108x) of Apes $5.54M 

(1.803x) of Civil War $5.23M 
Comps AVG: $4.97M 

 

Could do $5M previews. Let's see how the final two weeks go

[AniNate]

Discourse gonna be funny if Quiet Place prequel is a hit while Furiosa wasn't 

[Derpity]

5 hours ago, justnumbers said:

No one is expecting it to do 260M 

 

Seems like Quorum is considering $240m is described as a "conservative" estimate.

[KnightofNight237]

Deadline says heading for 120-130 but rival studios think it could open to $150M!?

 

"That’s because this weekend Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 is heading for the biggest opening of the year to date with $120M-$130M at 4,440 theaters. In fact, if the opening hits $150M (which is where rival studios see it), then it could be the second best stateside start for a Pixar movie after The Incredibles ($182.6M)."

 

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-inside-out-2-1235973432/

Edited June 14 by KnightofNight237

[dallas]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, dallas said:

 

2nd biggest OW of the year is locked.