The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

The marketplace is definitely starved for a horror movie that isn't either niche or schlocky looking right now. I know some were the under the impression that the lack of Krasinski and Blunt would really hurt this, but I don't think it will to too big an extent. The concept is still the main draw here.

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The marketplace is definitely starved for a horror movie that isn't either niche or schlocky looking right now. I know some were the under the impression that the lack of Krasinski and Blunt would really hurt this, but I don't think it will to too big an extent. The concept is still the main draw here.

It should do well. I know the tracking comps have been all over the place. Some have not looked good. Others have. But Monster Attack/Horror leaning movies are normally backloaded so should be fine.  35+at least I would think.

Edited June 16 by emoviefan

[poweranimals]

Now the question is what is, can Despicable Me 4 outgross this? I'm thinking not but you never know.

[filmlover]

Just now, poweranimals said:

Now the question is what is, can Despicable Me 4 outgross this? I'm thinking not but you never know.

Not a chance. Matching Minions 2's numbers are the absolute best case scenario.

[filmlover]

Fly Me to the Moon showtimes are up, starts at 3:00 that Thursday.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

The marketplace is definitely starved for a horror movie that isn't either niche or schlocky looking right now. I know some were the under the impression that the lack of Krasinski and Blunt would really hurt this, but I don't think it will to too big an extent. The concept is still the main draw here.

Quiet Place seems strong in presales, and should do good walkups business. 

 

I think the only potential problem is the movie being bad ... reviews won´t drop until the previews start, no reactions as well apparently, very weird. Hopefully is just another case of a good movie having super late embargo for no reason, there´s a few this year already.

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Quiet Place seems strong in presales, and should do good walkups business. 

 

I think the only potential problem is the movie being bad ... reviews won´t drop until the previews start, no reactions as well apparently, very weird. Hopefully is just another case of a good movie having super late embargo for no reason, there´s a few this year already.

Yeah I think studios , and this seems to be a post strike thing, really clamping down on the embargos  for some reason. 

[AniNate]

I think they've started to decide there's not much upside to early reviews unless you're an indie movie at a festival looking for distribution, and they probably really don't trust their test audiences these days to be a representative sample of how critics will feel. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I think they've started to decide there's not much upside to early reviews unless you're an indie movie at a festival looking for distribution, and they probably really don't trust their test audiences these days to be a representative sample of how critics will feel. 

Honestly do not have a problem with this. I have spoiled myself a few too many times because I read reviews that came out early. Assuming Disney puts a late embargo on DP and W it will not be as easy to be spoiled on the surprises in the movie.

[ThomasNicole]

32 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah I think studios , and this seems to be a post strike thing, really clamping down on the embargos  for some reason. 

I think i posted some variation of this in the movie thread, but yeah i came to the same conclusion. There´s a growing group of examples of good movies that had great reviews out early on their campaigns that ended up flopping hard, especially after pandemic. 

 

I suppose maybe they´re starting to feel that holding up the ´´it´s good´´ headlines until very close it´s available for people to see is better for some titles, especially walkup heavy genres, horror being one of them.

 

Let´s hope is the case and the movie can explode to maybe +50M. It´s feeling like high 30s / low 40s for now based on presales imo.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/7/2024 at 10:54 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Once again this feels a bit high. 
 

The MTC 1 number we got were around 6k on 5.5K shows, not sure of current nos but I guess they be less than 10K.

 

Don’t think Florida average per showing be more than that unless ofc Disney Springs is sold out and doing most of it.

 

Also, are those comps for T-27 days? Damn. Garfield had huge sales T-27 in that case.

WAIT WTF

 

I was tracking Thursday, not opening day Wednesday. I hate 5 day openings 

 

[excel1]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

The marketplace is definitely starved for a horror movie that isn't either niche or schlocky looking right now. I know some were the under the impression that the lack of Krasinski and Blunt would really hurt this, but I don't think it will to too big an extent. The concept is still the main draw here.

 

TRAP is going to over perform if it is any good.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

WAIT WTF

 

I was tracking Thursday, not opening day Wednesday. I hate 5 day openings 

 

That makes it even more insane lol because WED sales be higher than THU lol

[keysersoze123]

On 6/13/2024 at 4:59 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 173556/1274807 3225665.22 7809 shows +6195
Friday - 77287/1478773 1484343.71 8235 shows +3461

 

Friday was earlier in the day and Previews I just pulled it out and so +4 days of data. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 177190/1275319 3288387.88 7824 shows +3634

Friday - 80093/1480094 1534288.10 8243 shows +2806

 

+3 days of data. 

[keysersoze123]

@TheFlatLannister is hilarious for sure. I agree with @charlie Jatinder that Wednesday has to be even stronger. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That makes it even more insane lol because WED sales be higher than THU lol

Yeah it’s 2.7K vs 1.8K sold (Wednesday vs Thursday)

 

all blocks seats were removed but that number still seems high. Will try to figure it out tomorrow 

Edited June 17 by TheFlatLannister

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yeah it’s 2.7K vs 1.8K sold (Wednesday vs Thursday)

 

all blocks seats were removed but that number still seems high. Will try to figure it out tomorrow 

Could manually check the top performing shows/locs. Should be an easy fix.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Saturday - 733955/1539610 11369052.03 9262 shows +465390

 

Another record for walkups. i would think this is good enough for 50m. But its highly likely that more child tickets were sold today and so we need discount more than yesterday. Still huge walkups again and this makes me confident about its legs. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Sunday MTC1 - 589744/1407348 9001672.55 8399 shows

Fan Shows - 21181/54485 321807.10 392 shows

 

Not sure if they ought to be clubbed or not. It could go down a bit if you keep them separate. Otherwise it should be in line with estimates. 

 

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-40 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28526	33625	5099	15.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	24.15%		8.69m
L&T		16962	30.06%		8.72m
BP2		16800	30.35%		8.50m
AM3		10475	48.68%		8.52m
GOTG3		10750	47.43%		8.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1120/12925  [8.67% sold]
Matinee:    289/4469  [6.47% | 5.67% of all tickets sold]
3D:             498/6801  [7.32% | 9.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2683/11535  [23.26% | 52.62% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        53 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    56 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-39 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28492	33625	5133	15.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	24.31%		8.75m
L&T		16962	30.26%		8.78m
BP2		16800	30.55%		8.56m
AM3		10475	49.00%		8.58m
GOTG3		10750	47.75%		8.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1120/12925  [8.67% sold]
Matinee:    285/4469  [6.38% | 5.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:             500/6801  [7.35% | 9.74% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2702/11535  [23.42% | 52.64% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV         22 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    24 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

60 tickets sold 40 days out from release is ridiculously good right? 
 

this is going to have a HUGE final week

 

It's very good!  Problem is, I don't think it's all that easy for me to say how good, as I have, probably, exactly two films I can directly contrast DP3 to.  And, as you'll see in a moment, really only one.

 

	CM	DP3 - CM		TROS	DP3 - TROS
T-67		2491			2585
T-66		381			409
T-64		198			205
T-63		120			138
T-62		98			98
T-61		75			76
T-60		99			105
T-59		55		8308	55
T-58	1498	42		1497	44
T-57	195	59		348	62
T-56	160	74		196	74
T-55	64	63		161	66
T-54	98	40		111	40
T-53	71	36		127	36
T-52	62	56		118	56
T-51	59	55		70	62
T-50	74	28		52	33
T-49	50	52		30	56
T-48	37	29		77	30
T-47	36	54		87	59
T-46	43	60		49	61
T-45	27	95		77	95
T-44	57	60		73	61
T-43	17	30		103	34
T-42	22	46		102	46
T-41	26	33		80	35
T-40	19	53		58	56
T-39	17	22		41	24

 

So for folks who don't want to go cross-eyed looking at the above chart, the cliffs are that DP3 started out from a higher base than CM and sold for more days than CM  and is selling more tickets per day in the marathon stage than CM did. 

 

Average tickets sold last fourteen days:

Captain Marvel:               39 tickets per day

DP3 at sames sources:  48 tickets per day

 

CM had exited its fan rush stage 14 days ago, but changing it to 12 days doesn't appreciably change things, at least when it comes to the delta:

 

Average tickets sold last twelve days:

Captain Marvel:              35.4 tickets per day

DP3 at same sources:    46.8 tickets per day

 

On the other hand, TROS had a YYYYUUUUUUUUGE head start, which makes contrasting nearly worthless as that will absolutely have a much different ending sales period than DP3.  Complicating this is TROS *still* has a better daily pace than DP3 currently has:

 

Average tickets sold last thirteen days:

TROS:  69.2 tickets sold per day

DP3:     50.2 tickets sold per day

(13 days chosen as TROS exited its fan rush stage, well, 13 days ago)

 

Changing it to twelve also doesn't change much:

 

Average tickets sold last twelve days:

TROS:  69.1 tickets sold per day

DP3:     49.2 tickets sold per day

 

=====

 

So, when it comes down to it, I really only have Captain Marvel as a compare and contrast (IW starting at T-41 just is too far off length wise) as SW Saga films just have too different of a pattern.  And, well, folks know my stance on the inherent danger of comping against exactly one film.  Plus, you know, all the other inherent dangers of trying to compare the sales pattern of a 2019 MCU film against one for 2024, along with the dangers of comping against an R-rated film versus a PG-13 one and...

 

Well, as I said: It's doing much much much better than CM.  But we all knew that already, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited June 17 by Porthos