The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Brainbug]

Im a little bit concerned about The Meg 2 sales, but i woudnt write it off yet. Creature Features rely mostly on walk-ups, not so much on presales.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	293	26294	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

39

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.158x) of Mi7

~$1.11M THUR Previews

 

(0.145x) of Fast X

~$1.09M THUR Previews

 

(0.134x) of RoTB

~$1.18M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $1.13M

 

Still increasing against comps. Heading to at least teens OW

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	369	27814	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

76

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.188x) of Mi7

~$1.32M THUR Previews

 

(0.167x) of Fast X

~$1.25M THUR Previews

 

(0.155x) of RoTB

~$1.37M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $1.31M

 

Still on the uptick against comps. Probably looking at ~$2m previews. 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
206	1271	37496	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

155

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	693	1756	39.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

61

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

*Without EA

 

(0.510x) of Fast X

~$3.82M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.447x) of RoTB

~$3.93M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

(0.603x) of Mi7

~$4.22M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.99M TUE only + $1.2M EA = $5.2M

 

Tuesday looks like ~$4M to me

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-1 * Final update 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
212	1302	38642	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	978	1756	55.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

285

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-1

*Without EA

 

(0.439x) of Fast X

~$3.29M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.346x) of RoTB

~$3.04M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

(0.567x) of Mi7

~$3.97M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.43M TUE only + $1.5M EA = $4.93M

 

Would say $5M-$5.5M total previews. $3.4M TUESDAY. I will not have an update for tomorrow since i'll be working in the morning-afternoon. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

You all should use Insidious 5 as a comp to Meg 2. Both are very reliable on walkups.

0.762x of Insidious 5 $3.81m previews

 

 

[CJohn]

17 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

0.762x of Insidious 5 $3.81m previews

 

 

Now that is more like it. 

Lets see if my gamble pays off.

[cooldude97]

hoping for a potential breakout for TMNT

[keysersoze123]

Unlike even MI7 presales beyond previews tomorrow are anemic for Turtles 2. Obviously its going to be driven by walkups and WOM but I wonder if Barbenheimer mania would have some impact. Let us wait and see how the week goes.  

[M37]

Keep in mind Insidious had an especially late ramp up in sales, even for horror, due to opening right after July 4th - would not rely on that (or M3G for similar reasons) as a comp, but other horror films should suffice 

 

The $2M+ range seems right 

 

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-2]

1979/14372 (13.77% sold) [+281 tickets] [+78 EA | +203 Tue]

 

0.60538x MI7 at T-2                      [5.33m]

0.43832x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-2    [3.07m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.31060x  GBA at T-2            [5.90m]

0.94418x Sonic 2 at T-2       [5.90m]

2.44623x Shazam 2 at T-2  [8.32m]

0.79097x RotB at T-2           [6.96m]

 

===

 

As probably to be expected, all comps (except Shazam 2, lol) went down.  Now we see how walkups are for Monday's EA showings.

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-1]

2742/16080 (17.057% sold) [+763 tickets] [+231 EA | +532 Tue]

 

0.59622x MI7 at T-1                      [5.25m]

0.47416x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-1    [3.32m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.31827x  GBA at T-1            [5.93m]

0.95109x Sonic 2 at T-1       [5.94m]

2.56501x Shazam 2 at T-1   [8.72m]

0.79895x RotB at T-1           [7.03m]

 

====

 

Comps more or less kept pace with previous comps, +/- a skosh here and there, with the exception of the MI7 Tue ONLY comp going up a bit (as well as the still-lol Shazam 2 comp going up as well).

 

Guess it'll just depend on how Paramount feels like reporting the numbers.  Still, was able to keep pace with MI7's Monday total which is no small feat, at least in context.

 

As usual, no mid-day report so the next and final one will be sometime after 4:15pm PDT.

[vafrow]

TMNT Mutant Mayhem, T-1, Milton, ON

 

Sales are at 30 tickets sold across 4 showtimes today.

 

It's very hard to get a read on this with the Tuesday start, and being peak of summer.

 

Elemental was only at 3 tickets sold on T-1. ATSV was 255. So, hard to make sense of it against animated films.

 

For Tuesday start, MI7 did crazy business with 271.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-3	Jax	5	29	13	104	4,698	2.21%
		Phx	5	29	11	58	4,211	1.38%
		Ral	8	21	11	61	2,522	2.42%
	Total		18	79	35	223	11,431	1.95%
Turtles	T-1	Jax	5	50	36	211	6,726	3.14%
		Phx	6	61	36	224	8,532	2.63%
		Ral	8	52	75	300	7,289	4.12%
	Total		19	163	147	735	22,547	3.26%
Turtles (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	7	54	306	961	31.84%
		Phx	1	1	13	158	208	75.96%
	Total		7	9	67	464	1,169	39.69%

*Missed posting yesterday but did pull sales for everything except Strays

 

Switching to previews only comps

 

Turtles (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Barbie (Thu) - .094x (1.99m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .525x (2.61m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .983x (2.85m)

 - Indiana Jones - .385x (2.77m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .296x (1.78m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .525x (2.18m)

 - Dune - .417x (2.13m)

 - Transformers (Thu) - .462x (3.37m)

 - M:I 7 (Tue) - .483x (3.09m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.94m

 

Turtles pace chart

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Barbie	66.10%	32.63%	38.64%	18.23%
Sonic 2	80.88%	28.94%	23.45%	30.60%
Haunted Mansion	78.52%	32.46%	19.79%	20.65%
Indiana Jones	52.39%	27.83%	9.39%	16.10%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Ghostbusters	74.47%	28.14%	18.02%	28.41%
Dune			21.41%	16.99%
Transformers 6	70.78%	25.67%		28.02%
M:I 7	58.27%	31.32%	20.00%	20.81%

 

I've been on the TMNT train for about a week now and I'm not hopping off now.  Pace has been very close to M:I 7, but pulled ahead today.  Having the first EA shows at T-3 messed with the pace a little, but we'll know tomorrow morning if this thing will take off or not. 

 

Turtles (EA) T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - 2.18x (2.77m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .562x (2.59m)

 - Barbie (EA) - 1.578x (1.74m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - 1.184x (1.42m)

 - Sing 2 (EA) - .879x

 - Puss in Boots (EA) - 1.44x

 

My growth rate model puts total EA at 2.5m, but that may be a little high with Saturday's shows being matinee.  There are a lot of PLF EA shows today though, so that would bring the ATP back up a bit.  Overall I'm thinking something like 6.5-7m for total previews, but it will need a big day today.

 

Meg 2 T-3 comps

 - Free Guy - .731x (1.61m)

 - Beast - 2.82x (2.61m)

 - Old - 2.23x (3.35m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.32x (1.91m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - .817x (2.04m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .933x (2.52m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 1.352x (1.49m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.96m

 

Feeling a little better about a 2m previews.  Pace this week will show what type of movie this will be.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-2	Jax	5	39	32	136	5,807	2.34%
		Phx	6	35	27	85	5,110	1.66%
		Ral	8	24	17	78	2,749	2.84%
	Total		19	98	76	299	13,666	2.19%
Turtles	T-0	Jax	5	61	156	367	7,618	4.82%
		Phx	6	61	105	329	8,532	3.86%
		Ral	8	52	141	441	7,289	6.05%
	Total		19	174	402	1,137	23,439	4.85%

 

Turtles (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Barbie (Thu) - .12x (2.53m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .649x (3.23m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - 1.136x (3.29m)

 - Indiana Jones - .473x (3.4m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .389x (2.34m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .634x (2.63m)

 - Dune - .514x (2.62m)

 - Transformers (Thu) - .499x (3.64m)

 - M:I 7 (Tue) - .502x (3.21m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.23m

Growth rate model forecast - 3.12m

 

Turtles pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Barbie	73.13%	31.55%	36.95%	21.24%
Sonic 2	98.08%	31.75%	21.52%	25.21%
Haunted Mansion	101.41%	33.00%	22.22%	33.82%
Indiana Jones	76.13%	27.01%	14.74%	25.90%
Fantastic Beasts 3	55.62%	30.37%	30.83%	17.83%
Ghostbusters	95.85%			27.91%
Dune	87.62%			25.47%
Transformers 6	115.50%	29.21%		43.40%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%

 

This is what I've been waiting for.  Better T-0 update than any of the comps.  Last three days ahead of M:I 7 and Haunted Mansion, but slightly behind Transformers.  Should see a really good increase in the T-1 hour update.  Still hoping we can pull all of the comps into the 3s and a couple over 4m.  For now, I'll project 3.5m for true previews.

 

Meg 2 T-2 comps

 - Free Guy - .852x (1.87m)

 - Beast - 2.65x (2.45m)

 - Old - 2.27x (3.4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.473x (2.14m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - .857x (2.14m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .912x (2.46m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 1.466x (1.61m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.08m

 

Meg 2 pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Meg 2	118.25%	64.96%		34.08%
Free Guy	47.48%	47.48%		15.08%
Beast	94.83%	34.48%		43.04%
Old	144.44%			32.00%
Knock at the Cabin	46.04%	25.18%		20.12%
Lost City	63.85%	21.13%	9.52%	27.84%
Jungle Cruise	83.24%	26.26%	31.82%	37.24%
Death on the Nile				23.64%

 

Continuing the slow ascent.  What is it about sharks and sneaking up on people?

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Last Voyage	T-10	Jax	5	12	0	11	1,387	0.79%
		Phx	5	14	1	6	1,138	0.53%
		Ral	6	15	0	8	1,361	0.59%
	Total		16	41	1	25	3,886	0.64%

*Missed posting yesterday, but did pull sales

 

Last Voyage T-10 comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .25x (650k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .269x (390k)

 - Northman - .266x (359k)

 - Green Knight - 1.316x (987k)

 - Talk to Me - .862x (1.07m)

 - Beast - 1.19x (1.1m)

 

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-2	Jax	1	1	11	11	51	21.57%
		Phx	1	1	31	31	123	25.20%
	Total		3	3	42	42	174	24.14%
	T-8	Jax	2	2	9	9	841	1.07%
	T-9	Jax	5	7	55	55	960	5.73%
		Phx	1	1	31	31	208	14.90%
		Ral	1	1	14	14	261	5.36%
	Total		7	9	100	100	1,429	7.00%

 

I suppose Sony is going ahead with the scheduled EA shows as they are still available.  Not much point in comping random smattering of EA days, but these aren't terrible and maybe will help awareness if there is good WOM.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-1	Jax	1	1	0	11	51	21.57%
		Phx	1	1	2	33	123	26.83%
	Total		3	3	2	44	174	25.29%
	T-7	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-8	Jax	5	7	14	69	960	7.19%
		Phx	1	1	3	34	208	16.35%
		Ral	1	1	0	14	261	5.36%
	Total		7	9	17	117	1,429	8.19%
Last Voyage	T-9	Jax	5	12	1	12	1,387	0.87%
		Phx	5	14	0	6	1,138	0.53%
		Ral	6	15	0	8	1,361	0.59%
	Total		16	41	1	26	3,886	0.67%

 

Last Voyage T-9 comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .263x (682k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .263x (381k)

 - Northman - .241x (325k)

 - Green Knight - 1.13x (848k)

 - Talk to Me - .839x (1.04m)

 - Beast - 1x (925k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 937k

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-17	Jax	6	15	2	8	1,897	0.42%
		Phx	5	20	4	12	2,081	0.58%
		Ral	5	15	6	16	2,196	0.73%
	Total		16	50	12	36	6,174	0.58%
Strays (EA)	T-16	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Strays (Total) T-17 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.25x (1.63m)

 - D&D (Total) - .312x (1.75m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.3x (1.43m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 2.294x (1.72m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .379x (757k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-16	Jax	6	15	1	9	1,897	0.47%
		Phx	5	20	2	14	2,081	0.67%
		Ral	6	18	0	16	2,703	0.59%
	Total		17	53	3	39	6,681	0.58%
Strays (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

 

Strays (Total) T-16 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.5x (1.75m)

 - D&D (Total) - .261x (1.46m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.2x (1.32m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.75x (1.31m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .385x (771k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.29m

[CJohn]

9 hours ago, M37 said:

Keep in mind Insidious had an especially late ramp up in sales, even for horror, due to opening right after July 4th - would not rely on that (or M3G for similar reasons) as a comp, but other horror films should suffice 

 

The $2M+ range seems right 

 

 

I was just having a bit of fun to see how it would compare. Not a good comp I am sure.

[ringedmortality]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I was just having a bit of fun to see how it would compare. Not a good comp I am sure.

 

[el sid]

The Last Voyage of the Demeter had today 45 sold tickets in 6 theaters for Thursday, August 10 (9 days left).
Comps (all three films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 6 days left for the Demeter): The Invitation had 96 sold tickets,
Barbarian 156,
and Smile had 213 sold tickets.
The Boogeyman (1.1M from previews) had with also 9 days left 39 sold tickets.
 

And for Friday (10 days left) it had today 39 sold tickets, also in 6 theaters (the AMC in NY is missing).
Comps (all five films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = again 6 days left): The Invitation had 87 sold tickets,
Barbarian 70,
Smile 229,
Old 150
and The Night House had 24 sold tickets.
The Boogeyman (12.4M OW) had with also 10 days left 34 sold tickets.
 

Not that bad so far. Maybe double digits are reachable

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Ninja Turtles was absolutely sold out to capacity at the Dolbys in NYC last night... the sales today are dramatically down everywhere I look

[Krissykins]

$2m previews for Meg 2 would indicate an opening in the teens 😬

[upriser7]

Wait..Blue Beetle's pre-sales have started today ?

 

 

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Wait..Blue Beetle's pre-sales have started today ?

 

 

 

Yep.  2pm previews as well.

 

Film does release in two-and-a-half weeks, so now would be about the time.  Shame about first day of tickets releasing on opening night of TMNT, but waiting until next week would invite its own set of raised eyebrows (about waiting so long to start ticket sales).

Edited August 1, 2023 by Porthos