Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[Mango]

Might have hyped myself up for higher weekend numbers, ignoring phenomenal weekdays usually tricks you. Either way still absolutely dope numbers.

[keysersoze123]

Oppenheimer will have amazing saturday and Sunday. Still wont be enough for 50m but high 40s aint so bad for a 82.45m opener with 10.5m previews and excellent weekdays as well. 3rd weekend hold will provide better picture of overall legs and domestic finish as spillover effect should be done by this weekend for sure. We should see normal Monday drops. 

 

Barbie may not have had presales bump today but walkups will be better for sure. It will increase more than 10% for sure. I am thinking 29 35 31 for 95m 2nd weekend. Simply amazing. 

[M37]

34 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

And if it's a 2nd separate run, I think the point will stand that it's in the usual "empty zone" of $200-$300M - where 2 Disney movies have gotten this year, making the zone less dead...

The dead zone - aka the gap - is ~$230M-$340M, and Mermaid is the only film in that range post-pandemic (though I’d argue a bit of an * there). Also, Oppy may lower the upper threshold if it winds up more at like $330M 

[ringedmortality]

Just now, M37 said:

The dead zone - aka the gap - is ~$230M-$340M, and Mermaid is the only film in that range post-pandemic (though I’d argue a bit of an * there)

 

y

[Unfitclock]

The haunted mansion numbers don’t make sense to me because the theaters near me are selling nearly as well as transformers was today

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, M37 said:

The dead zone - aka the gap - is ~$230M-$340M, and Mermaid is the only film in that range post-pandemic (though I’d argue a bit of an * there). Also, Oppy may lower the upper threshold if it winds up more at like $330M 

tbf wasn't that zone also present in 2019? No movie grossed between 333m-211m that year. In fact since 2016, only 2 movies have grossed squarely in the middle of that range, Despicable Me 3 and the Grinch (coincidentally both Illumination movies)

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

The dead zone - aka the gap - is ~$230M-$340M, and Mermaid is the only film in that range post-pandemic (though I’d argue a bit of an * there). Also, Oppy may lower the upper threshold if it winds up more at like $330M 

 

Oppy may end up there, too, so we'd have 2 summer movies if we upped the range to $340M...

[McNerdy]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Disney will get it there. It's too close to not push it another 3M. Maybe expansions next weekend onwards or something.

I hope so... 

[Chaz]

My parents and their friends (all in their 70s) are going to see Oppenheimer this afternoon. None of them have gone to a movie since before the pandemy.

[baumer]

For what it's worth, presales here in Northern Toronto are good but it's not hard to get a ticket right now to either Barbie or Oppenheimer. So hopefully this means I should be seeing one of them this afternoon.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Chaz said:

My parents and their friends (all in their 70s) are going to see Oppenheimer this afternoon. None of them have gone to a movie since before the pandemy.

 

I had something very similar happene to me when Titanic came out. My grandmother (who was 80 years old) and my mom and me all went to see titanic. I don't know if my grandmother had been to the movie theater probably since gone with the wind came out LOL and my mom and dad never went to the theater. The Titanic got them to go sit in the theater for 3 hours and watch the movie. My grandmother was bawling her eyes out at certain points in the movie and my mom as well. But they obviously really enjoyed it and it was pretty cool for that to happen because my grandmother passed away 3 months later.

[Noctis]

Barbie looks quite set on soaring past $600m DOM. Absolutely insane.

 

 

[Day and Date The Best]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Well Elemental's legs seem to be dead now. All due to Disney wanting to switch the Elemental money stream to PVOD in mid August.

 

I hope the South Korean and Japanese legs are ok.

Those are excuses, PVOD does not affect animated, family films, Mario was known to have a 30-35 day window when it released yet it made money. PIB2 did spectacular and had a ~17 day window. Some people went to theaters after having watched it on pvod. Is flopoing like current Disney Animated movies, Universal Animated movies have Smaller windows, yet are making more money, remmember hiw sing 2 was on OVID and made more than Encanto. 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Day and Date The Best

[YM!]

7 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

If Fast X was on the quality level of 7/8 it would have made a billion. 

Fast X clears 8. It’s the best Fast film since 7.

[M37]

26 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

y

If you look at the international numbers, the domestic total is clearly a market specific over-performance - no different than Mario in Japan, Elemental in SK, Transformers in China or Barbie in Argentina. But doesn’t change the underlying theory of a gap between have and have-nots, a threshold that needs to be met with audiences to vault from middle tier to upper tier 

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

30 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

tbf wasn't that zone also present in 2019? No movie grossed between 333m-211m that year. In fact since 2016, only 2 movies have grossed squarely in the middle of that range, Despicable Me 3 and the Grinch (coincidentally both Illumination movies)

Yes 😉 (something I’ve been meaning to circle back to), but it’s particularly notable in the post-pandemic era when we’re trying to evaluate a shift in audience behavior 

 

Every time I see someone project a film to make $250/$300M I cringe, because it just doesn’t happen anymore

[Mau]

8 minutes ago, Day and Date The Best said:

Those are excuses, PVOD does not affect animated, family films, Mario was known to have a 30-35 day window when it released yet it made money. PIB2 did spectacular and had a ~17 day window. Some people went to theaters after having watched it on pvod. Is flopoing like current Disney Animated movies, Universal Animated movies have Smaller windows, yet are making more money, remmember hiw sing 2 was on OVID and made more than Encanto. 

Ok but Mario, is the most popular video game character, and sing 2 is a sequel to a popular film vs. two original films, one set in Colombia and Elemental is a film with a weird concept. 
 

If universal’s migration is a huge success, then Disney animation and pixar really have a brand problem

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Fast X clears 8. It’s the best Fast film since 7.

I agree wholeheartedly. For the first time in a while it really felt like the filmmakers were actually invested in what they were making. It's a shame most of the world didn't respond to it. Jason Momoa is not only a great addition on his own, but I feel like his crazy performance creates a solid contrast with the usual Toretto melodrama, which oddly made me care about said family a lot more than in the past couple of movies. It's still not as good as the legendary 5 through 7 run, but it reignited my interest in the franchise akin to what the Sonic movie did for its brand. Despite the mixed reception from general audiences I really hope Leterrier ends up returning for the next film.

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Every time I see someone project a film to make $250/$300M I cringe, because it just doesn’t happen anymore

 

So you don't buy The Marvels making that range?