Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[Brainbug]

Just now, Bob Train said:

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is overhated tbh. 

 

Its a masterpiece 😀

[stuart360]

650mil for Barbie is far from locked. Its going to need like 190mil off a 50 something weekend, with 450mil of demand already eaten up.

Edited August 5, 2023 by stuart360

[vale9001]

18 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

There’s not nostalgia for 30 or 40 year old properties like Indy or Keaton’s Batman because the audience that was nostalgic for those doesn’t bother going to movies anymore. Top Gun is the only exception, but that was an anomaly. 

 

For 10 or 20 year old properties like Tobey’s Spidey or Despicable Me there is nostalgia, it’s just up to the studio to harness it.

And star wars?. I think the nostalgia works with the right project whatever the decade was. Directors like Bay or Emmerich have big blockbusters but characters are not the strong part of these movies. 

[Valonqar]

Just now, stuart360 said:

650mil for Barbnie far from locked. Its going to need like 190mil off a 50 something weekend, with 450mil of demand already eaten up.

 

It's going to make over twice as much as TLM so there's that. 600M+ is the floor. 650M in play.

[Ororo Munroe]

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

It's absolutely directed at you. And I'm not wrong. 

There's no goalpost shifting since I previously said 600 was likely but that it could fall short of 650. I've been consistent. So yeah you are wrong, not surprising you wouldn't recognize that though. 

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

650mil for Barbnie far from locked. Its going to need like 190mil off a 50 something weekend, with 450mil of demand already eaten up.

I mean it's not line the movie after these 93m second weekend makes things like 15M mondays and and 15m thusdays.

Edited August 5, 2023 by vale9001

[titanic2187]

How did Barbie managed to hold better than Oppenheimer when it is double the size of the OW? This is especially weird as Oppenheimer outperform Barbie in all word-of-mouth indicators. The OW doesn't necessarily mean a burn off in demand either.

 

This is like another Mario-AIR situation when Mario has a 10x OW bigger than AIR but still managed to hold better than AIR although both have similar strength in term of WOM.

 

The winner take all economics really hurt the small-medium film. A smaller OW was not compensated by the stronger hold no matter how good the WOM is.  Mario and Barbie basically hold like a movie that gross probably multiple times smaller. 

 

 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

It's going to make over twice as much as TLM so there's that. 600M+ is the floor. 650M in play.

TLM?.

And yeah i do think it will hit 600mil, but even that isnt 'locked'. If it keeps the holds its been having for the rest of its run then 140mil needed from a 50 soemthing weekend is certainly more likely than not, but still not locked.

 

Again like i said on one of the previous pages, many on here were convinced 600mil was locked for Mario too.

[vale9001]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

TLM?.

And yeah i do think it will hit 600mil, but even that isnt 'locked'. If it keeps the holds its been having for the rest of its run then 140mil needed from a 50 soemthing weekend is certainly more likely than not, but still not locked.

 

Again like i said on one of the previous pages, many on here were convinced 600mil was locked for Mario too.

 

It's gonna be at 550M+  at the end of the fourth week. How Is 600 not locked? 🤣

Edited August 5, 2023 by vale9001

[JustLurking]

17 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Shrek 5 seems like the most obvious IP to tap into nostalgia-wise right now, especially with how well Puss in Boot was received. Easy billy once they finally make it.

they better have the same people as puss working on it so we can finally have another good shrek film

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

It's gonna be at 550M+ After the end of the fourth week. How Is 600 not locked? 🤣

How is it going to be at 550mil after the end of the 4th week?. That would mean 90mil next week, so like 15mil weekdays and 30mil weekend.

It might get the 30mil weekend but 60mil; weekdays??, no chance.

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

How did Barbie managed to hold better than Oppenheimer when it is double the size of the OW? This is especially weird as Oppenheimer outperform Barbie in all word-of-mouth indicators. The OW doesn't necessarily mean a burn off in demand either.

 

 

 

 

I mean... It really ain't that big a difference. But a major part is the fact that Oppenheimer is on far fewer screens, with a 3 hour runtime and R rated. Saturdays will be where Oppie can maximise its figures, but overall it can only do so much with those constraints. Had it not been for IMAX, the difference would be much greater.

 

Also, you make it sound like Oppenheimer is falling off a cliff, when its holds have also been exemplary, with a final multiplier not far off 4x (hell, if it gets back into IMAX for late August and Sep, I'd say 4x is likely to happen).

[vale9001]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

How is it going to be at 550mil after the end of the 4th week?. That would mean 90mil next week, so like 15mil weekdays and 30mil weekend.

It might get the 30mil weekend but 60mil; weekdays??, no chance.

 

?

30 M next weekdays

32m next weekend

20m  weekdays 

 

 

I don"t know why some of you are living in a different universe from us where Barbie didn't make 96M first week weekdays (on a 162M weekend) and 55M second week weekdays on a 93M second weekend.

Weekdays are Just insane and record breaking, only 40% less than all weekend. 

 

It's math and from this week alteady it's bigger than Jurassic world. Just that. 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by vale9001

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I mean... It really ain't that big a difference. But a major part is the fact that Oppenheimer is on far fewer screens, with a 3 hour runtime and R rated. Saturdays will be where Oppie can maximise its figures, but overall it can only do so much with those constraints. Had it not been for IMAX, the difference would be much greater.

 

Also, you make it sound like Oppenheimer is falling off a cliff, when its holds have also been exemplary, with a final multiplier not far off 4x (hell, if it gets back into IMAX for late August and Sep, I'd say 4x is likely to happen).

It is not that Oppenheimer falls off a cliff, it is about how Barbie didn't fall worse when by right that Barbie should burnt off its demand faster. The double the size of OW and weaker WOM didn't stop Barbie from legging out better than Oppen.

[stuart360]

9 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

?

30 M next weekdays

32m next weekend

20m  weekdays 

 

 

I don"t know why some of you are living in a different universe from us where Barbie didn't make 96M first week weekdays (on a 162M weekend) and 55M second week weekdays on a 93M second weekend.

Weekdays are Just insane and record breaking, only 40% less than all weekend. 

 

It's math and it's already bigger than Jurassic world. Just that. 

 

 

Well you said the end of the 4th week, which i assumed you meant the end of the 4th weekend (and your numbers still dont hit the 90mil or so it would need for 550mil).

 

And IMO its not beating JW's 653mil.

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by stuart360

[vale9001]

I'm not saying anything wrong. Weekdays for First 2 weeks have been just 40% less than the weekends.

 

With a 54M weekend this would give around 32-33M third week weekdays. So 490-495 Total.

Even in a very bad scenario of  30 milion fourth weekend It's like 520-525M.

The rest of the week still Summer so the pattern of the movie says 540-550 are there at the end of the forth week of release. 

 

 

 

 

[upriser7]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is not that Oppenheimer falls off a cliff, it is about how Barbie didn't fall worse when by right that Barbie should burnt off its demand faster. The double the size of OW and weaker WOM didn't stop Barbie from legging out better than Oppen.

I actually thought Barbie would have slightly bigger drop on Friday as it was losing 27% shows and 80% of PLF shows this weekend (5K PLF shows reduced to just around 1K PLF shows now)

[Joel M]

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

This is especially weird as Oppenheimer outperform Barbie in all word-of-mouth indicators.

 

I mean you can't compare their reception by their scores on imdb,letterboxd, RT (which are not that far anyway) like they are both superhero movies or animations. Everyone has them married in their head and they certainly have audience overlap because of Barbenheimer or because some people might genuinely interested in both outside of the meme but they 're very different movies. Barbie is easier both to rewatch and convince casual people that go once or twice a year to the movies to check out. So the potential audience is much bigger even with much bigger numbers. 

 

All you can get from the "word-of-mouth" indicators is that both movies have great reception. But otherwise is an apples to oranges comparison.

[Noctis]

I'm curious to see Barbie's overseas numbers. Last weekend, I predicted it would be at $570m by the end of this weekend. I'm thinking it might even hit $580m.

[1Robert1]

11 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

?

30 M next weekdays

32m next weekend

20m  weekdays 

 

 

I don"t know why some of you are living in a different universe from us where Barbie didn't make 96M first week weekdays (on a 162M weekend) and 55M second week weekdays on a 93M second weekend.

Weekdays are Just insane and record breaking, only 40% less than all weekend. 

 

It's math and from this week alteady it's bigger than Jurassic world. Just that. 

 

 

 

 

can you explain me how your math works, cause if barbie will be around 550, maybe even slightly better because next weekend is empty, and JW was 572. will barbie have better much better weekends than 37-38 percents drops as JW, or maybe july's weekdays will be much worse than late august /early september weekdays of jw.