Taylor Swift || The Eras Tour Concert Film - October 13, 2023 | Comes to Disney+ w/ 5 bonus songs

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Personally if I was making a forecast, I would put the Eras Tour down for 

 

$225-365M opening weekend 

$595M-1.075B total domestic

 

Found the Deadline correspondent. 👍

[dudalb]

On 9/8/2023 at 2:19 PM, Eric Poirot said:

Well yeah. She's been in there since Hannah Montana: The Movie. It was the only way she could be in Cats, Amsterdam, etc.

She seems to have dropped her start in country music like a hot potato.

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

96-145 for now

 

At the risk of jinxing things, I feel reasonably confident it's going above TLM's 3-day but am keeping it just above so as not to say 100 is "LoCkEd" and have it be a target for disappointment spin if it does, indeed, end up just below.

 

That said, with the ATP, Twilight and maybe even Hunger Games/Captain Marvel/Barbie-level numbers don't seem far off. The pinpoint is definitely closer to those than TLM for the moment. It's such a wild one to project, though. I think we should just all go along for the ride.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

96-145 for now

 

At the risk of jinxing things, I feel reasonably confident it's going above TLM's 3-day but am keeping it just above so as not to say 100 is "LoCkEd" and have it be a target for disappointment spin if it does, indeed, end up just below.

 

That said, with the ATP, Twilight and maybe even Hunger Games/Captain Marvel/Barbie-level numbers don't seem far off. The pinpoint is definitely closer to those than TLM for the moment. It's such a wild one to project, though. I think we should just all go along for the ride.

 

FWIW, I mentally had you pegged at 120-150 OW, so thinking similar thoughts.  Totes understandable to try to head off the Expectations Demons.  'sides more than a few updates for the range to clarify. 

[Relevation]

31 minutes ago, Eric Poirot said:

 

Apparently it’s already cleared the entire sales total of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (a movie which, mind you opened to $187M) with a month of sales left to go and zero promotion since it was announced

Quote

That figure–a month before opening– already bests the U.S./Canada advance ticket sales of mega-superhero movies like Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($60M) and The Batman ($42M); those numbers clocked just prior to their respective opening dates. 

 

[John2015]

16 hours ago, vale9001 said:

the eras tour is not a promoted movie. Any new news, clips, anticipations as for every movie. Of course for all september sales now will be very stale. Then in october they will start with a strong promotional campaign. 

But the TV spots campaign had already started.

 

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/5tkL/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-movie-trailer

Edited September 14, 2023 by John2015

[HummingLemon]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

Personally if I was making a forecast, I would put the Eras Tour down for 

 

$225-365M opening weekend 

$595M-1.075B total domestic

 

Let's finish this

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

 

Let's finish this

 

I mean, Revelation gave themselves nearly a 150m cushion of a range for the OW so I would hope they would be close to a target!

 

(the high end is not something I'm debating — but a 140m range for a OW prediction/projection is... a bit much)

Edited September 14, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

As long as it's in that range or close then I'll count it

 

I'm lowkey stanning for this specific user. All his predictions have been correct especially The Flash and Barbie

 

I'm sorry, but being able to claim victory at either 225m or 365m, or anywhere in-between is not the same thing!  Especially since "close to it" widens the range even further to something like 200m to 375m.

 

I might not draw many lines in the sand over this sort of thing, but I feel comfortable drawing this one.

 

Tighten the range a little, @Relevation, is more or less what I am saying. 😉 

 

ETA:

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Quite frankly when the uncertainty is this high I think a $140M cushion is warranted

I have it at $300M OW / $845M DOM for now but I’m not confident in that lol

 

I absolutely get uncertainty with all of the variables.  But even so, 140m gap is waaaaaaay too big of a range for me.  That's all I is sayin' here.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Porthos

[HummingLemon]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm sorry, but being able to claim victory at either 225m or 365m, or anywhere in-between is not the same thing!  Especially since "close to it" widens the range even further to something like 200m to 375m.

 

I might not draw many lines in the sand over this sort of thing, but I feel comfortable drawing this one.

 

Tighten the range a little, @Relevation, is more or less what I am saying. 😉 

He tightened it to $300M OW -- $845M DOM

[Relevation]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm sorry, but being able to claim victory at either 225m or 365m, or anywhere in-between is not the same thing!  Especially since "close to it" widens the range even further to something like 200m to 375m.

 

I might not draw many lines in the sand over this sort of thing, but I feel comfortable drawing this one.

 

Tighten the range a little, @Relevation, is more or less what I am saying. 😉 

 

ETA:

 

I absolutely get uncertainty with all of the variables.  But even so, 140m gap is waaaaaaay too big of a range for me.  That's all I is sayin' here.

Ok I’ll narrow it to like uh

$255-315M OW

$660-895M DOM

[Bob Train]

Don't mean to be a mod but uh, pretty sure this isn't the place for random predictions

Edited September 15, 2023 by Bob Train

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

He tightened it to $300M OW -- $845M DOM

 

Well, restated as that's the original projection/prediction from when sales started. But, yes, I saw that post in-between my others.

 

NB:  If Revelation had said something, like — oh I dunno, 275m - 325m — I wouldn't have said anything, but I felt like being ornery today. 

 

ETA:  xpost seen, @Relevation.  Fair enuf. 👍

Edited September 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Don't mean to be a mod but uh, pretty sure this isn't the place for random predictions

 

Well, it started with a mod predicting what Shawn would project, so blame XXR!  

 

Point taken though (it looks to have abated anyways)

Edited September 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Relevation]

12 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Don't mean to be a mod but uh, pretty sure this isn't the place for random predictions

Noted 

[AniNate]

In hindsight I think that was always just an entry point. Her fake southern twang in her early career really sticks out now. Can't imagine her seriously singing lyrics like "I hate that stupid old pickup truck you never let me drive" now 

 

EDIT: I guess she has brought out an acoustic version of that on her tour but still

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by AniNate

[SpiderByte]

I believe a 100+ opening would mean there is now no month to have never had a 100+ opening before.

[Flip]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon said:

Chances of TFA losing the crown?

[Skim Beeble]

Do you guys think this will be submitted for an MPAA rating? If they don't censor any F-bombs, the movie would probably be rated R right? Highest grossing opening weekend for an R-rated movie possible? Or will it not be submitted to the MPAA and just smash the NR record?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, it started with a mod predicting what Shawn would project, so blame XXR!  

 

Point taken though (it looks to have abated anyways)