9/29-10/1 Weekend Thread

[Day and Date The Best]

Well The Marvels could be a success. 

 

And with saying that this thread:

 

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

Did you enjoy The Nun II?

 

I feel like, compared to my best friend, it may have clicked for me more than others.

 

Don't know, I enjoyed it. Not perfect, but one of their much better attempts.

I did too. Much better than the first film. 

[titanic2187]

September without any surprise hit despite barren market is putting more stress on October or entire Q4 releases to deliver. In an ideal world, there should be some surprise hit here and there to make sure the market is functioning in a healthy way because there is no guarantee of a sure fire hit in the coming months.   

[baumer]

I know most of the members here have been following the box office for a very long time. And I hate to pull a tiny bit of rank here but I've been following the box office pretty religiously for about 40 years and I know not all of you are saying this but September has always been a quiet month. There's always exceptions to the rule of course but there's been a plethora of films that have opened up incredibly softly in the month of september. The doom and gloom and pessimism because the Creator opened a little softly is over reactionary for sure. 

 

What's the hook for the creator? Why should this movie break out and open with north of 30 million?

 

Saw x, like many of you have already said, is suffering from franchise fatigue. They had the right idea by bringing back Tobin Bell but again as others have mentioned, the last two Saw films didn't do any favors for the franchise. However with the budget being low again and it heading for anywhere between 17-20 million this weekend, a 40 or 50 million finish isn't disastrous.

 

I never did get to comment on the expend4bles. I saw it kind of reluctantly because it just didn't look that good. And the additions of 50 cent and Andy Garcia and Megan Fox just didn't really excite me. I will say Megan Fox is hotter than I've ever seen her before and she did display some skill but the soft opening that it had did not surprise me at all. Word of mouth probably spread like wildfire and even me, who loves the franchise with the exception of the third, thought this film was pretty disastrous for the first 3/4 of it.

 

It looks like The equalizer part 3 is going to end up right in the range everybody thought it would and I really enjoyed the third part as well, and I loved seeing Dakota Fanning in it. 

 

There's a lot affecting the box office right now. Actors not being able to promote anything, streaming services allowing you to sit your ass down in the comfort of your own home and watch a huge variety of films is just a couple of things.

 

I don't necessarily agree with @CJohn I don't think we should cancel September LOL but I understand where you're coming from.

 

And @Cap when is the 1993 countdown going to start?

 

 

[Claire of Themyscira]

18 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Love to see Claire back doing her usual thing Honestly, anything that brings me back to mid-2010s BOT fills me with joy.

LMAO, hey, boo. ❤️

 

What I do though?

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

The actual Thursday previews for The Creator are only 1.35M.

Holy shit that's bad. This is so depressing. I feel like with that number it could even miss $15m

 

To answer Baumer, I don't think this should be blowing up and opening to $30m+ or whatever, but I would hope that it'd be competitive enough to get to like $20m. I understand maybe the hook isn't there or people are uninterested in the AI premise, but it looks like a cool Scifi action movie and it is "original", and we're entering an age where people are supposedly tired of franchises and what original films that have (pretty) good reviews. 

 

So yeah, I think it's right to be bummed about the fact this is probably gonna hit mid-teens OW. 15m would be straight up depressing

Edited September 29, 2023 by Pinacolada

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, baumer said:

And @Cap when is the 1993 countdown going to start?

 

 

 

19 hours ago, Cap said:

Update on the 30 for 30: 1993 List. 
 

My job completely just blew up this weekend. So there was a lot of real life things that were a keeping me off-line. I suspect it will probably start sometime next week if not before. I’m trying to get it ready so that I can basically post all of it without gaps.

 

But if we want to just start, then I certainly can post a little bit, and then they’ll be a long stop, and then a little more and then will be a little stop, and then probably post the rest of it.

 

From the CC thread.

[Jsmitty]

7 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Holy shit that's bad. This is so depressing. I feel like with that number it could even miss $15m

 

To answer Baumer, I don't think this should be blowing up and opening to $30m+ or whatever, but I would hope that it'd be competitive enough to get to like $20m. I understand maybe the hook isn't there or people are uninterested in the AI premise, but it looks like a cool Scifi action movie and it is "original", and we're entering an age where people are supposedly tired of franchises and what original films that have (pretty) good reviews. 

 

So yeah, I think it's right to be bummed about the fact this is probably gonna hit mid-teens OW. 15m would be straight up depressing

 

Feeling like 17ish is about right now, based on things 20 is about it's top end? Could certainly finish 3rd this weekend. legs will be interesting maybe it hits 50 domestic.... $80 mill budget is pretty responsible I feel like for a CGI heavy original project makes me a little sad.

I had my prediction of 
Paw Patrol 20.5
Creator 19.7
Saw 17.3

[Cmasterclay]

If Killers and Napoleon break out while Creator flops, and all this year's comedies flop compared to Lost City and Ticket to Paradise, it will be further proof that something about the pandemic brought the value of star power back. Not to mention Barbieheimer benefitting from it big league.

[Claire of Themyscira]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

I know most of the members here have been following the box office for a very long time. And I hate to pull a tiny bit of rank here but I've been following the box office pretty religiously for about 40 years and I know not all of you are saying this but September has always been a quiet month. There's always exceptions to the rule of course but there's been a plethora of films that have opened up incredibly softly in the month of september. The doom and gloom and pessimism because the Creator opened a little softly is over reactionary for sure. 

 

What's the hook for the creator? Why should this movie break out and open with north of 30 million?

 

Saw x, like many of you have already said, is suffering from franchise fatigue. They had the right idea by bringing back Tobin Bell but again as others have mentioned, the last two Saw films didn't do any favors for the franchise. However with the budget being low again and it heading for anywhere between 17-20 million this weekend, a 40 or 50 million finish isn't disastrous.

 

I never did get to comment on the expend4bles. I saw it kind of reluctantly because it just didn't look that good. And the additions of 50 cent and Andy Garcia and Megan Fox just didn't really excite me. I will say Megan Fox is hotter than I've ever seen her before and she did display some skill but the soft opening that it had did not surprise me at all. Word of mouth probably spread like wildfire and even me, who loves the franchise with the exception of the third, thought this film was pretty disastrous for the first 3/4 of it.

 

It looks like The equalizer part 3 is going to end up right in the range everybody thought it would and I really enjoyed the third part as well, and I loved seeing Dakota Fanning in it. 

 

There's a lot affecting the box office right now. Actors not being able to promote anything, streaming services allowing you to sit your ass down in the comfort of your own home and watch a huge variety of films is just a couple of things.

 

I don't necessarily agree with @CJohn I don't think we should cancel September LOL but I understand where you're coming from.

 

And @Cap when is the 1993 countdown going to start?

I promise I am not tryna start anything with you.

 

But, do you remember making it to Final Tribal Council way back with a specific username I will NOT repeat? We had made a pact when playing Box Office Survivor, this was doing our Mojo days.

 

Crazy how back time goes. We made final two, tehe.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Claire of Themyscira

[Claire of Themyscira]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If Killers and Napoleon break out while Creator flops, and all this year's comedies flop compared to Lost City and Ticket to Paradise, it will be further proof that something about the pandemic brought the value of star power back. Not to mention Barbieheimer benefitting from it big league.

Ooh, that would not be surprising, and I mean no shade by this.

Hoping this is not our case, but I can definitely see this happening, ugh.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I can't believe we live in a world where Chris Rock's stench will continue to haunt the Saw franchise for years to come. I blame the new movie's underperformance on him.

 

On a more serious note, this weekend further cements the new, more hostile marketplace of today. Only one or two, maybe three movies per year will break out and become Endgame-level events. Everything else will be a huge wildcard going forward. The billion dollar movie well will certainly dry up. I wonder if we'll ever see a Marvel movie before Secret Wars reach a billion. Possibly not.

[Claire of Themyscira]

51 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I did too. Much better than the first film. 

Glad you felt the same way as I did. ❤️

 

We must continue funding these horror pics, boo.

[eman92]

8 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I can't believe we live in a world where Chris Rock's stench will continue to haunt the Saw franchise for years to come. I blame the new movie's underperformance on him.

 

On a more serious note, this weekend further cements the new, more hostile marketplace of today. Only one or two, maybe three movies per year will break out and become Endgame-level events. Everything else will be a huge wildcard going forward. The billion dollar movie well will certainly dry up. I wonder if we'll ever see a Marvel movie before Secret Wars reach a billion. Possibly not.

I mean to be fair the franchise was dying long before Spiral. Saw VI was when the decline started happening because of Paranormal Activity. Saw 3D had a nice resurgence I think because of the 3D aspect and it being the final Saw. When Jigsaw came out and rebooted the franchise it did not do well. I mean it wasn't a flop, but it was the 2nd lowest grossing Saw film domestically. Spiral came out during COVID and obviously didn't help. 

 

Lionsgate was thinking of a way to try and get the franchise back on its feet without Tobin since...well he hasn't had a major roll in the franchise since Saw III and he's extremely old (81). I think this just proves that there really is no Saw series without Tobin. 

 

This movie will still probably make well over 100M WW so this is a major win for Lionsgate, plus I can see this doing very well on PVOD if they release it on Halloween. I wouldn't be shocked if they greenlit a sequel in the next month. Lionsgate is not in the best shape and with the strike, there will be a lack of movies they have available for release in the next 1-2 years. 

Saw movies are low budget and quick to produce. They filmed Saw X Oct 2022-Feb 2023 and it was able to be all completed 7 months later. Budget for this was only 13M, so Lionsgate is looking at probably a 8-9x return. 

[TomThomas]

20 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I can't believe we live in a world where Chris Rock's stench will continue to haunt the Saw franchise for years to come. I blame the new movie's underperformance on him.

 

[baumer]

47 minutes ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

I promise I am not tryna start anything with you.

 

But, do you remember making it to Final Tribal Council way back with a specific username I will NOT repeat? We had make a pact when playing Box Office Survivor, this was doing our Mojo days.

 

Crazy how back time goes. We made final two, tehe.

Oh my goodness, I completely forgot about that but now that you bring it up that's a memory from a long time ago, and yes it is amazing how time flies.

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

If Killers and Napoleon break out while Creator flops, and all this year's comedies flop compared to Lost City and Ticket to Paradise, it will be further proof that something about the pandemic brought the value of star power back. Not to mention Barbieheimer benefitting from it big league.

Directors are the stars nowadays. Leo is the only remaining actor who can sell a movie not part of a franchise. Maybe Bullock too, and a few others if the budgets are low enough. Nolan, Peele, Tarantino, and Scorcese still have real pull.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Bob Train

[Bob Train]

Why are people saying Saw X is underperforming? It has a chance of beating Spiral's whole run in just OW. And I'm sure it will do well in overseas markets like 7 and 8 did. Considering the $13m budget, and that their were OW predictions as low as $10m, I don't see how this isn't a solid success

[Giorno]

https://deadline.com/2023/09/box-office-the-creator-saw-x-paw-patrol-the-might-movie-1235559753/

 

Quote

Paramount/Spin Master’s Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie didn’t have any previews today, but based on presales and upcoming matinees, the tike sequel is eyeing a $6.5M Friday and a $22M opening at 3,644 theater.

Lionsgate’s decision to take its Saw franchise back to its original name in Saw X is proving worthy. As of right now the movie looks to do $7.6M today, including $2M previews, and $17.5M for the weekend at 3,262 theaters.

At this time, New Regency/20th Century Studios’ The Creator is coming up short with $15M-$16M after a Friday that’s at $6M, including previews.

Sony’s wide expansion of Dumb Money from 616 theaters to 2,837 theaters is only seeing $1M today and around $3M for the weekend,

Fourth place belongs to the fourth weekend of New Line’s The Nun 2 with around $5M at 2,871 theaters, -42%, and a running total of $77M. 20th/Disney’s A Haunting in Venice is fifth with $4M, -37%, for a running total of $31.8M in weekend three.

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Giorno

[Ryan Reynolds]

Dumb Money is not a bad movie,  but should have been a streaming movie