FNAF Weekend Thread (10/27-10/29) | $80m Opening Weekend | Blumhouse's Biggest Opener Ever | $14.7m The Eras Tour | $9.3m KOTFM

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 minutes ago, Felandria said:

Exorcist -41%

I really want to call EXorcist another Morbius - a film whose performance is basically justifying the film's core concept even if memeably bad quality tanked the actual film. 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Utterly ugly hold across the board, don't understand how market works nowadays. The hold shouldn't be this bad since FNAF isn't some 100m+ opener, and it is only a 1 hour 50 min long movie which shouldn't squeeze the room for holdovers this much. Sadly the strike is impacting the casual moviegoers outreach, that is why the second weekend drop in the past few months have been meh-bad no matter how good the WOM is. 

 

Speaking of holdovers, Focus feature's Holdovers is looking to have similar PTA like Tar last year in the limited OW. 

 

 

Well hopefully that casual moviegoer outreach ceases to be a problem in the next few days.  In the case of Killers as I said after I saw it,  It is not as easy sit and sure the CS was A- but even the people who like or love it are conceding that is not something you go see and munch the popcorn and slurp the cola.

[filmlover]

The Holdovers should post around a $40K PTA for the weekend. Not an outstanding launch but a fine one. It seems to be getting a rather decent-sized expansion next weekend.

[JimmyB]

11 hours ago, Bob Train said:

This is why I don't take it seriously when people say only great movies can do well at BO nowadays. Despite Mario and FNAF not being the best films in terms of quality, they blew up the box office. 

 

Sure, they may be based on a prior IP, which is why they are huge, but have bad movies *not* based on a prior IP ever performed well, at least in the last, say, 20 years?

 

I feel even Pre-COVID it's only huge IP movies like Transformers that were able to get 20% RT and make huge numbers.

I feel even Pre-COVID it's only huge IP movies like Transformers that were able to get 20% RT and make huge numbers.

 

bad movies have always made money.

 

BvS big IP.

 

Books are IP like Fifty Shades opened to 85m, Twilight series.

 

Alvin and the Chipmunks got bad reviews made a ton.

 

Smurfs made 560m worldwide. 

 

[James]

 

I wonder if this has a shot at 400m WW.

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, James said:

 

I wonder if this has a shot at 400m WW.

I'd take the under pretty comfortably

[JustLurking]

Sad hold for killers anyway. Oh well, it is what it is.

[Cmasterclay]

KOTFM had awful showtimes around me yesterday. Like 1pm and 8pm. The length combined with screen competition from Freddy was killer.

[TMP]

I’ve kind of given up on the theatrical experience as something that’s ever gonna cater to adults moving forward, so the fact that killers even exists is enough for me. Praying Napoleon is a hit but if not then I guess Nolan’s stuff is always gonna get a big theatrical push. One man in a sea of recycled IP catering exclusively to the under-15 crowd lol

[Killimano3]

Surprised so many people around my age haven't heard of FNAF. It's not even really a new thing it's gotta be like 10 years old now lol

[Zakiyyah6]

I forgot how whiny and overly panicky this particular thread can get. Anyway, the fact is if people wanted to see Killers of the Flower Moon then they would have made time to see it. I think people can do 3 hours but 3 and a half is just too long for most unless your film is Avatar or somethin rare. It's nice that Scorsese doesn't compromise his vision but his vision rarely has led to huge numbers. I read that Raging Bull didn't do well and that came out when adult movies routinely did well. Marty was never huge box office.

[M37]

43 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Mexico point is fair but other family films aren't that different. If it wasn't clear I agree that it's likely just demo data. 

I wish someone just had a quick way to convert topline demos against age (I guess I might do it whenever I find time to get a more complete version of published film demo data aggregated). It just seems clear people are routinely making film specific arguments that only exist because of inferences drawn from the superficial data that's presented in trades.  

I know from first-hand experience that the DM/Minions brand is VERY strong with Hispanic families, far more than say Disney or other generic animated film (like Bad Guys). That's one of the reasons I was higher on its potential last year than many (though not high enough).

 

Its curious to me that the most reliable movie-going demo, especially post-pandemic, is often very undertracked. Often when the industry is "surprised" by an opening its because there is an Hispanic, or Black - or in the case of FNAF, age - skew that isn't accounted for. They need to focus more on the crosstabs, not the topline numbers

[filmlover]

25 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I forgot how whiny and overly panicky this particular thread can get. Anyway, the fact is if people wanted to see Killers of the Flower Moon then they would have made time to see it. I think people can do 3 hours but 3 and a half is just too long for most unless your film is Avatar or somethin rare. It's nice that Scorsese doesn't compromise his vision but his vision rarely has led to huge numbers. I read that Raging Bull didn't do well and that came out when adult movies routinely did well. Marty was never huge box office.

I think Oppenheimer just got people's hopes up too much at the prospect of ushering in a wave of non-IP based adult cinema thriving at the box office, plus the idea that of Leo (who couldn't even promote the movie) being a miracle worker of sorts who turns everything he touches into gold even when the concept is limited in terms of appeal (which in a way he is, with any other actor this probably either doesn't even make $10M total or remains a streaming exclusive). $60M on paper isn't atrocious for a movie that always seemed like a difficult sell (and was really only given a theatrical release to give Apple's streaming service more legitimacy), but does reinforce the reality that the hits always tend to be the exceptions, not the rules.

Edited October 28, 2023 by filmlover

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Killers of the Flower Moon dropping like a superhero movie 

 

The TMobile 2nd weekend effect - it will stabilize like Equalizer next weekend, but it is gonna be in trouble for Nov 10/17 weekends...I don't think it's in a large number of theaters still by Thanksgiving...

[MysteryMovieMogul]

37 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

Surprised so many people around my age haven't heard of FNAF. It's not even really a new thing it's gotta be like 10 years old now lol

Right? I'm in my lower-mid 30s and I know all about it. I simply haven't invested time in checking it out because I'm averse to jumpscare-centric gaming and media.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I don't think this observation is particularly strongly proven. To my eyes it's not so much attracting a noticeably diverse audience as this is reflecting changing trends in moviegoing overall. Posttrak demos constantly showing under-indexing among white audiences with  hispanic audiences overindexing but especially overindexing among young audiences. 
Minions 2/"Gentleminions" was 35% Caucasian and no one can credible argue this is a franchise that's has a strong demographic bias relative to a baseline of all moviegoers. A movie about the "The Big Bad Wolf" doing crimes hit 40% Caucasian. 

Looking at 53 films I have demo data for in 2021-2023 (but Mostly mid 2022 to early 2023 - I admit it's not a perfect dataset but it's something I've been slowly throwing together), it would place 33rd out of 53 in Caucasian %. If we throw in a 3 percentage point quasi margin of error, (35% to 41%), that would cover films ranking 27th to 43rd out of 53. 

But what happens when we pair it down? Let's first throw out the weird anime title (Jujutsu Kaisen 0), but let's also throw out "old person comedy/dramas" (Downton Abbey/Otto/About My Father/Father Stu/Death of the Nile/Till). 

The median Caucasian percentage was 42% and and mean 44.4%

However if we take a pass to remove obviously old skewing dramas/comedies you kill 5 films with a Caucasian percentage of 74-57% (plus Till at 36%) (could easily remove Marry Me but I erred on side of caution). That drops it to 42.7% mean/41% median. 

and +/- 3 points goes from 22/46 to 37/46.  This film is just in a relatively normal part of bell curve in % white versus % minority split even if it's a nudge on the minority heavy side. 

 

It's also the skew of where the data comes from.  As I've mentioned previously, Posttrak data will always skew to higher ethnic movie goer percents b/c Postrak takes all its info from city locations.  No one is going to the middle of Idaho to poll anyone.  So, the value of the ethnic demo is less the PRECISE breakdown, and more the breakdown vs other movies, to see who is getting drawn to what.

 

In this case, I think FNAF is playing straight young movie goer demo nationwide with very little skew to one ethnicity b/c this breakdown would be about the city type breakdown you might get from those Posttrak city sites.  If Posttrak ever exactly revealed them, we'd know for certain if it matches, but it's gonna be close...

[eeetooki]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think Oppenheimer just got people's hopes up too much at the prospect of ushering in a wave of non-IP based adult cinema thriving at the box office, plus the idea that of Leo (who couldn't even promote the movie) being a miracle worker of sorts who turns everything he touches into gold even when the concept is limited in terms of appeal (which in a way he is, with any other actor this probably either doesn't even make $10M total or remains a streaming exclusive). $60M on paper isn't atrocious for a movie that always seemed like a difficult sell (and was really only given a theatrical release to give Apple's streaming service more legitimacy), but does reinforce the reality that the hits always tend to be the exceptions, not the rules.

 

People really need to stop seeing Oppenheimer as a rule. It's an exception. Plus it has Nolan, which in itself is an IP of some sort. He has a built-in audience that will watch his movies regardless of what kind of genre he makes.

[cheesypoofs]

1 hour ago, Killimano3 said:

Surprised so many people around my age haven't heard of FNAF. It's not even really a new thing it's gotta be like 10 years old now lol

I'm surprised too. I think it was like 2016-2017 when I first heard of it and I remember feeling behind the times back then. 

[cheesypoofs]

Being a simultaneous Peacock release I'm very impressed with the numbers

[John Marston]

Oppenheimer is also edited at a breakneck pace and has constant loud, blaring music. Nolan knows what he is doing