Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[abracadabra1998]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Best question: what are everyone's movie plans for this long holiday weekend?

 

The Holdovers, Thanksgiving, Napoleon, and Wish (albeit with lowered expectations) for me Friday through Sunday.

Watching Napoleon with my family, feels like the only movie my parents will like (they’ve seen the holdovers)

[thedude11]

5 hours ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Well they were going to lose money on these projects even if Disney+ never happened. Most of Disney's current flops were poorly-recieved by fans and critics. And that stings way more than putting it on a streaming service. I know that this whole "streaming bad" thing is your schtick, but would Love and Thunder seriously make a billion if Disney+ never existed? Would Lightyear become this major sensation if Turning Red wasn't on Disney+? Would Haunted Mansion be this giant hit if it came out on October and no streaming service existed? Strange World? Wish? Dial of Destiny? Maybe at most, for some of these, you'd add 100M to their lineup. And that's stretching it. Like I can't imagine Haunted Mansion making as much as it did. You're not gonna excite a lot of people to see movies that have poor reviews and reception. That's the main culprit. And no streaming boogeyman was going to stop these movies from seeing the reception they got.

 

It's no coincidence Disney's biggest, leggiest hits were well-regarded and warmly-recieved features like Guardians 3, Black Panther 2, Elemental, even Little Mermaid. We can argue how much Disney+ hurt their totals, and I know you will, but attendance was already going down even before streaming became a thing. So yeah, I think you're missing the bigger picture here, but go off I guess.

yeah disneys issue is 100% quality. audiences are just not interested in the stories they are telling (me included)

[thedude11]

On 11/22/2023 at 8:51 AM, Mojoguy said:

It's freaking sad that THG is going to take first place over the Thanksgiving weekend. Good for THG, but shows the incredible lack of GA interest for the new releases this Thanksgiving weekend.

shows an incredible lack of quality films. don’t blame audiences for not watching bad movies

Edited November 23, 2023 by thedude11

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

THG BOSS is a success. Nothing groundbreaking or like how it was during its peak, but a success nonetheless

It's going to gross less than half of what Mockinkjay -Part 2 did 8 years ago. In terms of tickets sold, it's going to collapse at around -70% tickets sold worldwide.

 

It is barely fighting to recoup its budget and that outcome is possible only because it was given a very reasonable, smaller budget to begin with.

 

If I were one of the producers, I would not want my franchise to be tarnished to the point where a next entry would have to be micro-budgeted to be greenlighted. But I'm not a producer so it's not like my opinion is what matters.

 

If you all want to consider this a success, so be it...I will kindly disagree in silence from now on.

Edited November 23, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[thedude11]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I think 2024 could be pretty solid. Mufasa, Inside out 2, Despicable me 4, Deadpool, Joker 2 could all be $1B films 

 

Gladiator 2 could have a mini Barbie run 

Kung Fu Panda could be a $700M+ film

Garfield could breakout and be a mini Mario

 

The only films that screams flop to me are Kraven, Madame Web, and Ghostbusters 

mufasa is going to be lightyear 2.0

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

It's going to gross less than half of what Mockinkjay -Part 2 did 8 years ago. In terms of tickets sold, it's going to collapse at around -70% tickets sold worldwide.

 

It is barely fighting to recoup its budget and that outcome is possible only because it was given a very reasonable, smaller budget to begin with.

 

If I were one of the producers, I would not want my franchise to be tarnished to the point where a next entry would have to be micro-budgeted to be greenlighted. But I'm not a producer so it's not like my opinion is what matters.

 

If you all want to consider this a success, so be it...I will kindly disagree in silence from now on.

Whenever a movie make a profit no matter how tiny it is and generating healthy WOM, it is a success.

Dropping from original HG is just making a lesser success story rather than render it to a failure. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

55 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Jonathan Majors said "If i am going down, I am taking everyone with me"

I actually wonder if there's something to that. 3 major superhero tentpoles in 2023 all involved having to sell an "ongoing" story with deeply unpleasant questions of personal morality/criminal behavior (even if one of them only emerged after the film was released). 

 

[HummingLemon496]

6 hours ago, Legion Again said:

Seems destined to be the largest of the final 9 DDEU movies!

Black Adam domestic * 0.5 > Aquaman 2 domestic. Watch it pull a 3.3*5.5*4.5 for 82 ish

[interiorgatordecorator]

i'd read the books, and seen 3 out of the 4 movies, and even if I thought the catching fire movie was good, I remember finding the franchise a bit lame; amusing to now see myself cheering for its success and excited to watch it next week 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Whenever a movie make a profit no matter how tiny it is and generating healthy WOM, it is a success.

Dropping from original HG is just making a lesser success story rather than render it to a failure. 

But it making a profit (however small that might be) is not a sure thing for now: first the early estimates would need to be confirmed, then it would need to hold well in the upcoming weeks, which is not a given.

As for the "healthy WOM" is it there really? The critics were mixed to negative, the Cinemascore bad enough at B-, it is being liked by its core fanbase and the teens girls as the main demo, but it is not like it's being universally acclaimed.

 

And even then, this isn't an original stand-alone entry, it's a piece of a franchise so any discourse on it should consider that. Deadline wisely wrote last week that if this has to be a reboot- new saga starter than it is a failure, much like Fantastic beast was (and they were right as we all saw how that ended).

 

If this movie, on the other hand, was meant to milk the last remaining dollar out of a dying saga then it is serving its purpose.

 

Regardless, this is no flop, that's for sure. But as I already said in the past for other movies (like A haunting in Venice, Elemental or TLM) there is a grey zone between a flop and a success where everything from a "mild disappointement" to "okayish" stands, and this one falls right into that grey zone IMHO. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

But it making a profit (however small that might be) is not a sure thing for now: 

 

After The Marvels posted a franchise low for the Marvel Cinematic Universe of $46.1M, isn’t Songbirds and Snakes also a misfire? Not necessarily, and at a $100M-plus production cost, 65% of which is funded by foreign sales, with another $20M+ in German tax credits, the Lionsgate Francis Lawrence-directed movie is structured completely differently financially than the $200M The Marvels. Lionsgate has largely covered their nut and exposure in foreign territory licensing, materially participating after their partners recover their costs. Songbirds & Snakes will be profitable, with a domestic end results between $120M-$130M. Still, there didn’t seem to be any kind of urgency here on behalf of fans to reignite new life into Hunger Games.

 

source: military 

[Cmasterclay]

Next year probably lost over $1 billion in gross between Spiderverse, Mission Impossible, Snow White, the Michael Jackson biopic, Apex, and Movie Critic. It's definitely going to be a rough year. Add all those back in and it may have actually been kind of stacked. 2025 definitely shaping up, but at this rate I predict Trump will have put me in a gulag by then so I wish you all enjoyment.

[Ozymandias]

58 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think that what happens from the start of COVID through the 2024 election and beyond will be looked at in history as a major realingment of our economy, culture, and way of life, and while this is obviously a box office forum, I think it's myopic to look exclusively at the struggle of movie theaters over a bigger picture of just how much the ground of history is shifting under our feet right now. We have no real idea where everything ends up.

 

I look forward to bending the knee for Dear Leader Xi and our new BRICS overlords in 2035.

 

57 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

Nonsense, The Counselor is a much better movie, I wish it was Ridley in The Counselor mode, but it was Ridley in House of Gucci mode: grey and brown filter, a lot of humor, awkward sex scenes and choppy editing at times.

 

After watching Napoleon, I think all reports about this movie being a comedy are overblown. There's definitely more humor and funny moments than in other Ridley's epics, but it still has serious moments and it's still historical epic about rise and fall.

 

Eh, The Counselor is all tell and no show, the opposite of film making.   It feels like a novelist writing a screenplay as a novelist because it is a screenplay written by a novelist in novelist mode.

[Borobudur]

Quote

Family and kids under 12 gave the animated pic 4.5 stars out of 5 on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. Wish is 3 1/2 stars with general audiences and 71%. Overall 65% women to 35% men. Get this: guys liked it better than women, 80% to 65%. Might be that bubbly star in the movie that’s warming dudes’ hearts. Women over 25 were the biggest turnout at 37% (67% grade), women under 25 at 24% (62% grade), men under 25 at 22% (80% grade), and men over 25 at 17% (also 80% grade).

 

Unexpectedly male rate Wish better than female

 

Quote

Napoleon's PostTrak was 3 1/2 stars last night and 74% positive and a 47% definite recommend. Guy heavy at 69%, with men over 25 showing up at 55% and giving pic a hard 74% grade. Women over 25 at 24% grading it 66%, followed by men under 25 at 14% (the best grades at 88%) and women under 25 getting pulled along at 7% (and snoozed through the movie at 69%).

 

47% is one the lowest definite recommend i have seen

Edited November 23, 2023 by Borobudur

[titanic2187]

Terrible expansion for salturn, in line with Bones and all last year; proving success in limited release just isn’t good indicator. 
 

Outside the top five is the expansion of Amazon MGM’s Emerald Fennell directed Saltburn from seven locations in NY, LA and Austin to 1,566. Wednesday was $684K, 3-day is $1.9M, 5-day $3M and running total $3.3M. The 3-day is close to what last year’s Searchlight’s Banshees of Inisherin did in its wide break to 890 theatres ($2M) and higher than the wide expansion of Tar ($1M at 1,087 theaters). The Oscar winning filmmaker’s thriller noir about the bromance between Oxford University colleagues gets a B- CinemaScore to her directorial debut Promising Young Woman‘s B+. PostTrak is 3 1/2 stars and 75% and a 42% definite recommend. Interesting turnout for the Jacob Elordi movie with guys edging out women 53% to 47%. Also, men under 25, who showed up at only 11%, gave the pic its best grades at 83%. Men over 25 were dominant at 42% (75% grade), followed by women over 25 (24% and 76% grade) and women under 25 (23% and a 71% grade). The wide blast here for Saltburn is significantly higher than the wide opening of Fennell’s Promising Young Woman which hit theaters at a time when several circuits were closed and NYC and LA not open ($719K at 1,310 theaters) due to Covid over Christmas 2020.

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

 

Unexpectedly male rate Wish better than female

 

 

47% is one the lowest definite recommend i have seen

 

2020's Downhill had 0.5 posttrak stars and a 19% recommend is the worst I've ever seen.

 

This is pretty similar to Peter Rabbit 2 (A-; 74% Positive 45% recommend)

47% would place it ~322 out of 422 % recommend anecdotes posted in trades (this is missing most films from recent months but pretty exhaustive before that)

[Webslinger]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Best question: what are everyone's movie plans for this long holiday weekend?

 

The Holdovers, Thanksgiving, Napoleon, and Wish (albeit with lowered expectations) for me Friday through Sunday.

Wish today, then probably Saltburn tomorrow and Napoleon on Saturday. I might also give Thanksgiving a shot with how shockingly positive reviews have been, even if it likely won't live up to its Grindhouse fake trailer namesake.

[Torontofan]

I think Gladiator can do well if it captures the nostalgia element.

 

Gladaitor is seen as a classic by audiences. 

 

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Terrible expansion for salturn, in line with Bones and all last year; proving success in limited release just isn’t good indicator. 
 

Outside the top five is the expansion of Amazon MGM’s Emerald Fennell directed Saltburn from seven locations in NY, LA and Austin to 1,566. Wednesday was $684K, 3-day is $1.9M, 5-day $3M and running total $3.3M. The 3-day is close to what last year’s Searchlight’s Banshees of Inisherin did in its wide break to 890 theatres ($2M) and higher than the wide expansion of Tar ($1M at 1,087 theaters). The Oscar winning filmmaker’s thriller noir about the bromance between Oxford University colleagues gets a B- CinemaScore to her directorial debut Promising Young Woman‘s B+. PostTrak is 3 1/2 stars and 75% and a 42% definite recommend. Interesting turnout for the Jacob Elordi movie with guys edging out women 53% to 47%. Also, men under 25, who showed up at only 11%, gave the pic its best grades at 83%. Men over 25 were dominant at 42% (75% grade), followed by women over 25 (24% and 76% grade) and women under 25 (23% and a 71% grade). The wide blast here for Saltburn is significantly higher than the wide opening of Fennell’s Promising Young Woman which hit theaters at a time when several circuits were closed and NYC and LA not open ($719K at 1,310 theaters) due to Covid over Christmas 2020.

A very dark satirical thriller was always going to be a tough sell to a broad audience, especially at this time of year, but this seems like a movie that would find its audience on streaming anyway.

[ZeroHour]

The new year has to see some big creative shake-ups at Disney, right? Between Strange World and now WDAS botching a fairytale musical, the studio's bread and butter, I’m not sure there’s much argument for keeping Jennifer Lee as CCO. Lucasfilm proving unable to launch any Star Wars films and missing (and way overspending) on Indy 5 also should warrant a shake up (though maybe Filoni’s new role is supposed to be a band aid there). At least Pete Docter is probably breathing a sigh of relief. His team can still deliver creatively and it’s really more of a marketing and Disney+ issue. You have to give Kevin Feige the chance to course correct but if 2025 isn’t seen as a creative resurgence for that division, even he won’t be Teflon forever. 
 

Of course, this is the studio that’s going full steam ahead on a Jared Leto Tron so maybe they’ll just continue setting money on fire.