Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[Firepower]

5 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

Gladiator music is iconic 

 

It plays in a trailer and it will get huge interest. 

 

I think the only thing that can really hurt the film is poor quality but if its even half as good as the original it will a massive hit. 

If Zimmer is not scoring sequel, it's a wasted effort.

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

This year has been an absolute crapshoot for the box office.

 

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2023 is 80 for Brady at $39,330,588.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2019 was Midway at $56,846,802.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2009 was The Final Destination at $66,477,700.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 1999 was Stigmata at $50,041,732.

 

Sure, there were superhits like Barbie, Oppenheimer, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and we can spend time giving Disney shit for their failures this year, but we're all ignoring the fact that most films, individually, are making less than they made 20 years ago.

That film will be pushed down atleast like 6 spots (assuming no surprises) so it's pretty likely we'll have something like No Hard Feelings at 50.5M as #50, which is not really all that different from 2019, especially with a few strike-related delays (would've been more like 52M range otherwise).

 

FWIW, I do agree the BO is weaker than pre-pandemic, I just think this specific point is pretty weak.

[Pinacolada]

A near $80m 5 day opening for Napoleon is very good. Far exceeding projections. I always knew this had potential, and the flopping of other recent Historical epics like The Last Duel and The Northman had no bearing on a movie about Napoleon .

 

The sad thing is is that those 2 films are much better than Napoleon. I just really wish Ridley made a better film. I enjoyed it but man, it's really pissing people off. Let's see how the legs will be. With an opening like that, with Japan, SK, and China still to come, I imagine $200m+ WW should be easy. Would love to see it get closer to 300m WW

Edited November 26, 2023 by Pinacolada

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Gladiator imo is one of the best movies of the 21st century, not only blockbusters, but in general. It literally does everything right in its story and character work and has an absolutely iconic villain in Commodus. If Gladiator 2 manages to be at least half as good as the original, it has HUGE potential.

 

Gladiator is also one of the best examples of historical epics that get a ton of things wrong about the time they are portraying but it doesnt matter since the film is just so good that even history buffs - like me - can completely overlook these errors.

 

 

Yep this movie holds up so dam well. Every time I watch it gets better and better. 

[CoolioD1]

am not confident in Scott's ability to deliver a crowdpleasing Gladiator 2 at all. But sure if he does it, a billion dollars and another best picture.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

At least the speciality market is showing some life this month. Hoping that Focus will keep The Holdovers in a decent amount of theaters through Christmas despite the VOD release on Tuesday.

 

I don't get how come Alexandar Payne didn't ask for longer window for his movie. It seem only Nolan, Cruise and Cameron are demanding longer window and studio listen to them.

 

Payne is a prestigious director for the scale of his movie. If he demanded, I don't see focus feature would reject that ask.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

I keep seeing people saying Napoleon was boring except for war sequences but I thought the movie was ok? It didn't bore me from start to finish. 

 

This year is a strange year for me reading RT reviews. There was so many tentpoles I found critics are overly harsh. From Mario to shazam 2 in spring, from GOTG3 to Elemental during summer, and the list can go on and on to include the Creator, HG prequel and Wish.

 

I don't really remember in any years I have come out from the movie hall thinking "this is better than what I expected!" this often.

[Pinacolada]

Saltburn's numbers are impressively terrible to me. Really sucks. Thought there was way more interest for this. At least expected $5m 5 day and would've been fine with that. This sucks

 

Good for The Holdovers. Fucking hate Focus Features/Universal so much. Hopefully it can stay in like 700 theaters or so by Christmas?

[MysteryMovieMogul]

7 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

That film will be pushed down atleast like 6 spots (assuming no surprises) so it's pretty likely we'll have something like No Hard Feelings at 50.5M as #50, which is not really all that different from 2019, especially with a few strike-related delays (would've been more like 52M range otherwise).

 

FWIW, I do agree the BO is weaker than pre-pandemic, I just think this specific point is pretty weak.

Okay, then I'll go to 100, not 50.

 

The 100th highest grossing film domestically in 2023 is Everything, Everywhere, All At Once (not even a 2023 release) at $7,160,881.

The 100th highest grossing film domestically in 2019 was The Peanut Butter Falcon at $20,457,158.

 

To get to a film that made more than The Peanut Butter Falcon, you have to get to the 61st highest grossing film domestically, which was Strays at $23,988,885.

 

Also, if you couldn't tell, the 2023 list (which I'm getting from the-numbers.com) counts re-releases and films from prior years still in circulation, while the other lists are specific for their year.

Edited November 26, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

[Noiret Jak]

How much do you think The Hunger Games will end up?

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Gladiator’s one of my all-time favourite movies for sure. I’ve said this before, but the soundtrack is also killer. Use some of those pieces in the trailers for Gladiator 2 and you’ll have a smash hit.

 

Regarding streaming titles, I’m really hoping Argylle becomes a Kingsman/Lost City type hit. I want streamers to know that theatrical exhibition is a lucrative option. Would love to see more streamers take those theatrical risks. So yea, I’m championing these movies as much as possible.

 

31 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Gladiator’s one of my all-time favourite movies for sure. I’ve said this before, but the soundtrack is also killer. Use some of those pieces in the trailers for Gladiator 2 and you’ll have a smash hit.

 

Regarding streaming titles, I’m really hoping Argylle becomes a Kingsman/Lost City type hit. I want streamers to know that theatrical exhibition is a lucrative option. Would love to see more streamers take those theatrical risks. So yea, I’m championing these movies as much as possible.

I am really pulling for Argyle also. I think it has potential. They could have just dumped it. But Universal came onboard and they putting a real marketing effort behind it.

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Okay, then I'll go to 100, not 50.

 

The 100th highest grossing film domestically in 2023 is Everything, Everywhere, All At Once (not even a 2023 release) at $7,160,881.

The 100th highest grossing film domestically in 2019 was The Peanut Butter Falcon at $20,457,158.

 

To get to a film that made more than The Peanut Butter Falcon, you have to get to the 61st highest grossing film domestically, which was Strays at $23,988,885.

 

Also, if you couldn't tell, the 2023 list (which I'm getting from the-numbers.com) counts re-releases and films from prior years still in circulation, while the other lists are specific for their year.

Yeah fair enough, like I said I don't really disagree with the overarching point, I just don't like this specific example. That BO has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels is pretty inarguable.

[M37]

21 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

This year has been an absolute crapshoot for the box office.

 

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2023 is 80 for Brady at $39,330,588.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2019 was Midway at $56,846,802.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 2009 was The Final Destination at $66,477,700.

The 50th highest grossing film domestically in 1999 was Stigmata at $50,041,732.

 

Sure, there were superhits like Barbie, Oppenheimer, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and we can spend time giving Disney shit for their failures this year, but we're all ignoring the fact that most films, individually, are making less than they made 20 years ago.

I delved into this data point last weekend

 

tl;dr - the market is more top heavy now than ever (a pre-COVID trend), but the 50th place film for 2023 is on pace to account for roughly the same market share value as it was in the last couple of years before the pandemic. Its just that overall box office is down by 25-30% as compared to that time period, top to bottom

 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I am really pulling for Argyle also. I think it has potential. They could have just dumped it. But Universal came onboard and they putting a real marketing effort behind it.

That feels like a wildcard to me. I think it looks fun, but also, it doesn't look good. And I don't think Sam Rockwell or Bryce Dallas Howard are big enough names to bring people into theaters, even if Henry Cavell is in the film.

 

Although, I remember TikTokers trying to claim Taylor Swift is the film's actual writer because of all the Swift references in the marketing, and we know that's BS, but... what if she's the actual spy who's teased at the end of the trailer? If Taylor Swift is in the film, all bets are off.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

tl;dr - the market is more top heavy now than ever (a pre-COVID trend), but the 50th place film for 2023 is on pace to account for roughly the same market share value as it was in the last couple of years before the pandemic. Its just that overall box office is down by 25-30% as compared to that time period, top to bottom

But this year, we know for a fact that a couple of the top 10 films of the year (now I'm speaking worldwide gross) won't even make enough, or barely will make enough, to cover their budget. Wouldn't having the same market share value only matter if the ratio of gross to budget is the same as those pre-pandemic years?

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

tl;dr - the market is more top heavy now than ever (a pre-COVID trend), but the 50th place film for 2023 is on pace to account for roughly the same market share value as it was in the last couple of years before the pandemic. Its just that overall box office is down by 25-30% as compared to that time period, top to bottom

 

That read like a contradiction. More top heavy, or about the same just 25-30% down across the board ?

Edited November 26, 2023 by Barnack

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Saltburn's numbers are impressively terrible to me. Really sucks. Thought there was way more interest for this. At least expected $5m 5 day and would've been fine with that. This sucks

 

Good for The Holdovers. Fucking hate Focus Features/Universal so much. Hopefully it can stay in like 700 theaters or so by Christmas?

 

Can you imagine Saltburn finish below Promising Young Woman? A movie released during the peak of Covid. Hope MGM has a better luck with American Fiction. 

 

While Saltburn's expansion totally flop, the poorly received Next Goal win actually holding quite ok but still terrible number. May come close to $10m.

 

10 minutes ago, Noiret Jak said:

How much do you think The Hunger Games will end up?

 

I am actually thinking 160m finish. Given the less stellar December line up, there is actually a good chance HG find itself a second bump over the year-end holiday season.

[titanic2187]

Just now, Barnack said:

That read like a contradiction.

Not only that, it show the market is recessing at all front. No mid-small budget/scale film managed to gain ground against top-tier blockbuster. 

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That read like a contradiction.

In 2019, the 50th place film made $56.8M, out of a $11.4B total box office, or 0.497% MS

In 2023, the 50th place film will be somewhere in lower $40s IMO, total box office lower $8B range, or just above 0.5% MS

 

The 50th place film has fallen by an equal amount (25-30%) as the top films, but the amount of the market being taken up by the top 5/10/20 films remains on par with 2015-2019, which was - and still is - as high as its ever been for the domestic market (and a big jump from the 5-10 years that preceded it). "Now" in that context refers to 2015 and beyond trend, not just this specific year

[Bob Train]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Not only that, it show the market is recessing at all front. No mid-small budget/scale film managed to gain ground against top-tier blockbuster. 

FNAF outgrossed The Marvels. Small-budget movie beat top-tier MCU blockbuster.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

FNAF outgrossed The Marvels. Small-budget movie beat top-tier MCU blockbuster.

Nah, the real small budget movie are holdovers, saltburn, priscilla. FNAF has a small budget but its branding basically is its cheat code that certainly isn't fooling me into thinking small-scale movie is fighting back.