WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[M37]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Warner Bros.’ Wonka is looking at a $12M-$13M Friday, including those $3.5M previews from last night

On 12/12/2023 at 9:41 AM, M37 said:

Fwiw, Wonka still looking at a ~$3.5M Thursday to me, weekend around ~$30M, no real change in trajectory 

On 12/14/2023 at 6:13 PM, M37 said:

Way under IMO. I’m struggling to see even the 10x IM many seem to be expecting, and that kind of OD would go way higher. Just don’t see this playing as a true, walk-up friendly, family film (at least for OW) - there’s too many “fan”/YA sales baked in that’s going to limit the growth rate. Not on like HG:BoSS level, but in range of TLM or Ghostbusters Afterlife 

 

$12-$13M is my current expectation, $30M+ OW

 

Spoiler

We'll see if that range holds through the night, and what kind of Saturday increase is in store, but again I'm not just not really seeing any data to suggest this is playing overly family/walk-up friendly.

(Though I do expect that to shift during the holiday period

 

[LonePirate]

Caught a matinee showing of Saltburn. There were 7 people total in attendance. I didn’t have any expectations going in but I was aware that the film was somewhat dark and divisive.

 

I ended up enjoying the flick, mostly due to the ridiculous and irredeemable characters not to mention there were at least three different scenes featuring moments that I can honestly say I have never seen in a movie. Elordi and to a lesser extent Pike may be receiving attention for their performances; but this is Keoghan’s vehicle from start to finish. The writing served him well and he played it to the hilt and then some.

 

The film is not for everyone. However, if you like something off the beaten path, this is worth watching. Also, it made me a fan of Sophie Ellis-Bextor.

[MovieMan89]

17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I wanted Wonka over 40M OW. Oh well.

Meh, who cares about OW for it? Next weekend is where it gets fun  

[Skim Beeble]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Meh, who cares about OW for it? Next weekend is where it gets fun  

Based on the calendar configuration it will probably have a 40-50 something percent drop next weekend

Edited December 16, 2023 by Skim Beeble

[charlie Jatinder]

Looks like 10+ FRI. Could hit 10.5. True FRI.

[Skim Beeble]

He who shall not named is saying Wonka is looking like $14m today.

[Gavin Feng]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looks like 10+ FRI. Could hit 10.5. True FRI.

 

 

we really couldn't win more😭

 

Spoiler

I mean, could we? (like $11M?)

 

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Based on the calendar configuration it will probably have a 40-50 something percent drop next weekend

Maybe for the 3 day portion but from Christmas day on it will rebound. 

[MovieMan89]

15 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Based on the calendar configuration it will probably have a 40-50 something percent drop next weekend

We’ll see. Everything being sub 25 next weekend seems unlikely, since Aquabro will be hard pressed to do more. 
 

But it goes without saying Xmas eve with no Xmas day will deflate the weekend to some extent. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Warner Bros.’ Wonka is looking at a $12M-$13M Friday, including those $3.5M previews from last night, on its way to a $35M+ start at 4,203 locations. That’s a respectable opening for this time of year when moviegoers are still sidelined by holiday activities, and it’s a solid start for a feature musical, currently head of the 3-day of 2008’s Mamma Mia! ($27.7M) and Hairspray ($27.8M), in fact after such musical missteps as In the Heights ($11.5M), West Side Story ($10.5M) and Dear Evan Hansen ($7.4M), Wonka is definite comeback for feature musicals.

Social Media analytics corp RelishMix reports a social media universe for the Timothee Chalamet movie across X, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and Instagram of 326.4M, boosted by a dedicated TikTok channel plus 55% of engagement on YouTube videos. That SMU is higher than such movies as Mary Poppins Returns (229.4M), yet below Cruella (424.7M).

 

The rest of the top pics are as follows

2.) Hunger Games: Songbirds & Snakes (LG)  3,291 theaters, Fri $1.65M (-37%), 3-day $6M (-35%), total $145.4M/Wk 5

3.) Boy and the Heron (GKIDs) 2,325 theaters, Fri $1.2M (-79%), 3-day $4.7M (-64%), Total $22.8M/Wk 2

4.) Godzilla Minus One (Toho) 2,622 theaters, Fri $1.2M (-45%), 3day $4.4M (-48%), Total $33.7M/Wk 3

5) Trolls Band Together (Uni/DWA) 3,154 theaters, Friday $900K, 3-day $4M (-34%) Total $88.7M/Wk 5

 

Ugly drop for Boy & The Heron when it was holding so well this week - not great for the others either.  Way to many shows cut for other films for Wonka.  My local had 21 showings today for Wonka - that's what they give for 100m+ openers.

[Arlborn]

29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looks like 10+ FRI. Could hit 10.5. True FRI.

Get it to just over 10.5 and I can see a path to 40m OW… Get it to 40m OW and I can see a path to 300M… 

 

Probably I hope for too much, but let’s see what happens.

[Scubasteve716]

Nice number hopefully it creeps up could potentially hit 40

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Meh, who cares about OW for it? Next weekend is where it gets fun  

I don't think the hold will be that good for it next week because it will lose screens and have Christmas Eve worsen the hold. Starting Christmas Day I expect a surge.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

I don't think the hold will be that good for it next week because it will lose screens and have Christmas Eve worsen the hold. Starting Christmas Day I expect a surge.

I didn’t think I needed to specify relative to a Xmas Eve/no Xmas Day weekend hold,  but yeah that’s what I mean 

[DAJK]

Wonka insane walkups. Very busy all around BC tonight, wouldn’t be surprised with 11M true Friday.

 

Also deadline is very wrong about either Godzilla or Heron (probably Godzilla). It’s 300 tix above Heron at a certain Canadian theater chain today, and considering Heron was far higher than it last weekend, that’s excellent. 

[ThomasNicole]

40M seems a good target with +14M FRI 

 

Also think audience results are good enough, Jumanji have even lower and was a leggy monster 

 

There’s probably some “fans” of the book and the Wilder version that likely wasn’t too happy with it. 
 

And I liked the movie but it’s not only very family friendly, but also childish in some ways, which also can be a thing for cynical audiences. 
 

Unless the CS came at with a B in front of it, it’ll be fine, an A- is enough to amazing legs.

[joselowe]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Wonka insane walkups. Very busy all around BC tonight, wouldn’t be surprised with 11M true Friday.

 

Also deadline is very wrong about either Godzilla or Heron (probably Godzilla). It’s 300 tix above Heron at a certain Canadian theater chain today, and considering Heron was far higher than it last weekend, that’s excellent. 

Very different here. I live near the most popular mall in all of South Florida in a huge family friendly area and most shows for Wonka are empty

 

Its just not connecting with people here as opposed to ATSV, Barbie or Eras

https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/wonka-65858/showtimes/wonka-65858/2023-12-16/amc-aventura-24/all

[Cmasterclay]

These numbers make me wonka my willy.

[Bob Train]

 

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Very different here. I live near the most popular mall in all of South Florida in a huge family friendly area and most shows for Wonka are empty

 

Its just not connecting with people here as opposed to ATSV, Barbie or Eras

https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/wonka-65858/showtimes/wonka-65858/2023-12-16/amc-aventura-24/all

Hey, we're neighbors! I'm seeing the same thing at Oakwood and Dania Pointe in my area along with Aventura. But this film skews pretty white (and not just Taylor Swift white) for our area. Color Purple is sold out all day on Christmas at all three of these theaters btw. Insanely impressive.