WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[titanic2187]

39 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Pretty good starts for American Fiction and The Zone of Interest. The former is expanding to 40 theaters next weekend instead of going wide like originally planned so looks like they're waiting until after the holidays are over/we're fully into awards season to push it.

So it seem like 30k PTA is where most platform release stuck for their limited OW.

 

90% posttrak is great for AF although this come slightly lower than holdovers. A real spotlight of the week is poor things. 95% VA score on RT suggests that the movie didn’t weird out the audience and maybe be able to expand nicely.
 

 

[emoviefan]

I don't get this narrative about Trolls being a disappointment. It's a 3rd trolls movie. The fact that it will still get to 100 million should be considered a win.

[nguyenkhoi282]

1st week

39M OW (10.6M Sun)

3.2M Mon (-70%)

4.8M Tue (+50%)

3.5M Wed (-27%)

3.5M Thu (+-1%)

= 54M gross

 

2nd weekend

7.9M Fri (+125%)

11.8M Sat (+50%)

5.9M Sun (-50%, Christmas Eve)

= 25.6M 2nd weekend (-34%) = 79.6M gross

 

8 days holiday stretch

Each day performing as a Saturday, in this case previous Saturday 11.8M. Let's say averaging 10M each for 8 days => 80M

 

End of holiday total gross = 160M

 

Jumanji 2 added 10x its New Year's Day gross after this point

Jumanji 1 added 13.5x 

Puss In Boots 2 added 22x

TGS added 22x

Mary Poppins Returns added 6.7x

ITSV added 12x

Alvin Chipmunks 2014 added 5.5x

 

It's kind of all over the place so I'd go for 10x = 100M

 

So, totalling 160 + 100 = 260M

 

Hmm, so maybe closer to 250M than 300M, but I think OS will be good enough for 700M WW.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by nguyenkhoi282

[Hatebox]

Only found out about Zone of Interest a month ago, not sure how it caught me by surprise. Glazer is the most interesting English language director going in my opinion 

[toutvabien]

I really loved Poor Things' first hour or so. The rest... had some very strong spots, but overall, yea that didn't need to be 141 mins long. Not a big fan of the ending either.

[ando]

Lolol

 

 

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

9 minutes ago, ando said:

Lolol

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know why every time a new movie come out and some people who love Marvels or any superhero movie are trying to prove they're failures? Do they believe they can control the narrative by doing that? They did this for protecting woke message or just being a non-sense superhero fanboy? I have no word if it's latter. But if it's about woke things, the right way is showing the facts that most flops from studios are from white male creators. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

43 minutes ago, ando said:

Lolol

 

 

 

 

So much incoherence in a single sentence my head hurts 💀

[M37]

14 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not touching the Wonka multi convo with a 10 foot pole until we’re well into the official holiday stretch. It’s futile. 

It’s really not though, unless Wonka carves a path no other film has taken before (at least in 20 years). December is very much it’s own animal, but there is still signal within the noise of the holiday madness 

 

These $250M+ projections people keep throwing out, while I won’t say impossible, really have no analog that suggest it’s a likely outcome, just begging to be disappointed when it makes “only” $200M and finishes in 8th or even 7th place for the year 

Edited December 18, 2023 by M37

[BadOlCatSylvester]

40 minutes ago, ando said:

Lolol

 

 

 

 

Racebaiting over a movie most have already forgotten about is just pathetic. Wonka is a whimsical family-friendly December musical with good word of mouth, whereas The Marvels was a poorly-received entry in a tired old franchise riddled with baggage. The former also cost half, maybe even less than that, as much as the latter to make.

[baumer]

16 hours ago, M37 said:

I’m not willing to say 0%, but like <1% based on historical data

 

First week should finish at $48-$56M, so looking at a $180-$230M domestic total. But $500M WW seems pretty safe, and I’m not going to be surprised if Wonks gets to $600M

 

I agree with everything you just said here. I guess nothing should ever be a 0% chance, there's always a chance. It's just incredibly slim. Seven multipliers are like the Loch Ness monster. There's a slight slight chance that they exist but the odds are highly not in its favor.

[filmlover]

Wonka is losing all IMAX/PLF screens and will be forced to lose theater space due to so many new titles starting Friday. Should make a play for $150M with a rebound starting Christmas Day, but some of the insane multipliers being thrown around definitely come across as wishful thinking at best.

[Torontofan]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Racebaiting over a movie most have already forgotten about is just pathetic. Wonka is a whimsical family-friendly December musical with good word of mouth, whereas The Marvels was a poorly-received entry in a tired old franchise riddled with baggage. The former also cost half, maybe even less than that, as much as the latter to make.

 

I miss when every major blockbuster wasnt politicaized 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Torontofan

[TMP]

2 hours ago, ando said:

Lolol

 

 

 

 

I don’t know what’s sadder - that there’s an entire community on twitter whose sole purpose is now to defend the honour of The Marvels’ box office (i’m sure we could give them a few of our finest recruits!) or that this is the only time this movie is ever brought up in any context. How much of a nothing-burger movie was this. Feels like it doesn’t even exist beyond the confines of box office headlines

[ChipDerby]

44 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wonka is losing all IMAX/PLF screens and will be forced to lose theater space due to so many new titles starting Friday. Should make a play for $150M with a rebound starting Christmas Day, but some of the insane multipliers being thrown around definitely come across as wishful thinking at best.

 

This site is ruining box office predictions. You can just enjoy tracking movies instead of analyzing sales.

[MightyDargon]

Absolutely nobody cares about The Marvels anymore. Further posts on it are just ragebait. Wish failing to get 100 mil is more interesting.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[jj99]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Wonka is losing all IMAX/PLF screens and will be forced to lose theater space due to so many new titles starting Friday. Should make a play for $150M with a rebound starting Christmas Day, but some of the insane multipliers being thrown around definitely come across as wishful thinking at best.

Does PLF/IMAX availability heavily impact family movies? Deadline mentioned 1/3 for Wonka's OW rev. Does the PLF/IMAX share typically reduce for subsequent weekends?

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, jj99 said:

Does PLF/IMAX availability heavily impact family movies? Deadline mentioned 1/3 for Wonka's OW rev. Does the PLF/IMAX share typically reduce for subsequent weekends?

Can't say for sure but it's more so the arrival of so many movies between Friday and next Monday (at least 7 movies in 1,500+ theaters) and next Sunday being Christmas Eve (theaters will be closing relatively early) that'll diminish the second weekend, though things will naturally pick back up once Christmas Day arrives + the weeklong stretch through New Year's afterwards.

 

Speaking of which, a whole lot of ugly theater drops are coming up this week as theaters clean house of their movies that are now posting miniscule PTAs.

[YM!]

3 hours ago, ando said:

Lolol

 

 

 

 

Though I do think that yes DeCosta got a raw deal with it being clear Iger and Feige are/will throw her under the bus rather than the fact 23 projects in 2 years with only a few raves and the rest being mediocre to bad reception wise is enough to halt a hype machine and maybe their current formula is flawed and that the main cast did get a raw deal (it's telling that only Samuel stood up for Brie when Feige and company were willing to go to war over Scorsese and Pratt), but the key difference is: Wonka costed half as much and has far stronger WOM and staying power than The Marvels. It will break even whereas Marvels won't.

 

This shit was annoying when they bought KoTFM and Napoleon into it vs The Marvels some odd months ago, because yes both are bombs but those were made for the purpose of streaming and accolades and for their genre well KOTFM at least did very respectable numbers. The Marvels is part of a multi billion dollar franchise with a 1.1B predecessor.