WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Regarding the recent trend of embargos ending closer to a film's release, I think we're going to see that happening on good films in 2024. Especially if Hollywood can't figure out how to market theatrical films that can't be framed as events.

[MightyDargon]

If Purple gets crud reviews it'll have a good first week then bomb. Would be a fitting coda to a terrible year overall for WBD.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

I mean Color Purple is going to make very little money outside of liberal parts of Western Europe and a few other places, but it is selling like a genuine blockbuster domestically in a way Wonka never, ever came close to in my area. Plus it still has review bump and additional screenings being added.

Colour Purple is a very American story. It was like a couple months back when I was saying that KOTFM won’t do more than 100-200M internationally because the story is steeped in American history as opposed to something like The Revenant which has more international appeal as an action blockbuster.

 

Same way American audiences (by and large) wouldn’t give two shits about a story largely centred around the history of another country.

[Mojoguy]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Colour Purple is a very American story. It was like a couple months back when I was saying that KOTFM won’t do more than 100-200M internationally because the story is steeped in American history as opposed to something like The Revenant which has more international appeal as an action blockbuster.

 

Same way American audiences (by and large) wouldn’t give two shits about a story largely centred around the history of another country.

I loved Godzilla -1 and it was very focused on Japanese culture. -1 has made even more money in the US than its home country of Japan.

 

It's more complicated then saying Color Purple is too American and stars black people so it will fail OS.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Mojoguy

[M37]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

 

People aren't rational! That's why we track box office. No "analysis" told us Sound of Freedom was going to make almost $200 mil, because it was irrational. I remember when Wonder Woman came out and everyone was adamant that it wouldn't make $300 mil AFTER it opened. Let alone $412 mil. Things happen. @baumer should even know this, as we essentially drove someone off this site for saying WW wouldn't hit $400 mil instead of him paying $1,000.

 

Going around telling people something won't happen makes you THAT guy. 

If there is one thing tracking has taught me, it’s that people collectively are in fact very predictable! Now there will always be outliers and exceptions, so I’m hesitant to drop a “never” or “won’t”, but very - if not very very - unlikely? Yeah, I can say that with confidence in a lot of cases 

 

If being able to properly analyze numbers, to take the variables of genre, demographics, time or year, competition, WOM, and so on into account - seeking to understand not just the what, but the why and how - and using that information to be able to reasonably project forward makes me “THAT guy” … then I guess I’m him

 

Im sorry if that makes your personal experience less fun, but I prefer to celebrate when films outrun their reasonable expectations, not set the bar so high that they almost never can 

[ChipDerby]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

If there is one thing tracking has taught me, it’s that people collectively are in fact very predictable! Now there will always be outliers and exceptions, so I’m hesitant to drop a “never” or “won’t”, but very - if not very very - unlikely? Yeah, I can say that with confidence in a lot of cases 

 

If being able to properly analyze numbers, to take the variables of genre, demographics, time or year, competition, WOM, and so on into account - seeking to understand not just the what, but the why and how - and using that information to be able to reasonably project forward makes me “THAT guy” … then I guess I’m him

 

Im sorry if that makes your personal experience less fun, but I prefer to celebrate when films outrun their reasonable expectations, not set the bar so high that they almost never can 

 

Sounds like a miserable time.

[titanic2187]

 

Approaching top 5 non-English in NA. Glad that Heron avoided the typical anime collapse too. 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

33 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Colour Purple is a very American story. It was like a couple months back when I was saying that KOTFM won’t do more than 100-200M internationally because the story is steeped in American history as opposed to something like The Revenant which has more international appeal as an action blockbuster.

 

Same way American audiences (by and large) wouldn’t give two shits about a story largely centred around the history of another country.

I thought you got pushback on that, though, whereas no one is pushing back on the idea that The Color Purple will do poorly outside of the US.

[Mojoguy]

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

Approaching top 5 non-English in NA. Glad that Heron avoided the typical anime collapse too. 

 

-1 has to reach $49.5m to beat Demon Slayer. That will depend on how many screens it can keep over Christmas break.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Mojoguy

[joselowe]

37 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Colour Purple is a very American story. It was like a couple months back when I was saying that KOTFM won’t do more than 100-200M internationally because the story is steeped in American history as opposed to something like The Revenant which has more international appeal as an action blockbuster.

 

Same way American audiences (by and large) wouldn’t give two shits about a story largely centred around the history of another country.

It’s typically the same for American comedies too. For a long time only American action films made money OS the only exception was a few romantic comedies and dramas if it had big named stars attached to it. But even then the domestic gross was generally a lot higher than OS.

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

-1 has to reach $47.7m to beat Demon Slayer. That will depend on how many screens it can keep over Christmas break.

Demon slayer is like 49.5-50 range IIRC.

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Demon slayer is like 49.5-50 range IIRC.

Yeah, 49.5m. Read an outdated article earlier.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Mojoguy

[ringedmortality]

2 hours ago, joselowe said:

And that’s just from the last few pages,  there are many more!

 

 

[DAJK]

35 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I thought you got pushback on that, though, whereas no one is pushing back on the idea that The Color Purple will do poorly outside of the US.

I got a lot of pushback lol. But I was right

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, joselowe said:

And that’s just from the last few pages,  there are many more!

For future ref, me predicting something is getting bad reviews is saying sub 50% not “huge acting accolades, 70-75%” lmao

[titanic2187]

Please let this pass 100m. I realised Trolls 3 only go to PVOD this coming Tuesday. The same exclusive window as Mario and longer than other Universal's animation like PIB2, Sing 2. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

It’s really not though, unless Wonka carves a path no other film has taken before (at least in 20 years). December is very much it’s own animal, but there is still signal within the noise of the holiday madness 

 

These $250M+ projections people keep throwing out, while I won’t say impossible, really have no analog that suggest it’s a likely outcome, just begging to be disappointed when it makes “only” $200M and finishes in 8th or even 7th place for the year 

All I will say is people claiming it would be unprecedented or “no analog” when modern examples like Jumanji exist merely because there is a 5 DAY difference in release dates are being wildly pedantic for no reason. And no I will not respond to any quotes of this. 

[dallas]

1 hour ago, MightyDargon said:

If Purple gets crud reviews it'll have a good first week then bomb. Would be a fitting coda to a terrible year overall for WBD.

I wouldn't say WB is having a terrible year. Their only movies doing bad are DC.

[titanic2187]

PTA remains above 1000. The terrible wide release OW really limit the celling of the movie. Clearly the movie found her audience and I would assume this to be future cult classic. 

 

I would expect AF to go at least 20m like Holdovers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

3 hours ago, joselowe said:

And that’s just from the last few pages,  there are many more!

And what’s wrong about this? We discuss embargoes and perceptions about these things constantly about everything.

 

Maybe you’re the one projecting something into people’s words? Nothing in any of these posts remotely seems weird or bad faith. 
 

And i’ll stand about my post, i know WB is screening the movie since October and yes i find it a little odd that reviews are still embargoed even after many awards are nominating it. People i know that watched weeks ago disliked it, they just can’t talk about it, so yes i think the reviews won’t be glowing. That doesn’t mean awful scores, just not the +90% movies for awards usually gets, and this doesn’t necessarily matter for it’s box office prospects like i said.
 

If you find this offensive i’m sorry but you need to grow up.