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Valonqar

DUNC 2: Paul and Chani wear K-outure as SK presales reach Oppenheimer levels

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In a month time, DUNC conclusion is hitting IMAX and then the rest of the theaters. Pre-sales in US are hotter than the Arakis air so here's the tread to share pre-sales in other countries, make projections and when the time comes cheer the numbers.

 

With the exception of Russia, which was DUNC's Top 3 market, we should see healthy increases everywhere.

 

The movie is going to be the first spectacle of the year.

 

 

Edited by Valonqar
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20 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Will be big. Hoping for $400m-$500m OS.

 

Since the first one made tad under 300M during pandemic, jump to 400M-500M is perfectly reasonable. It won't have Russia but increases everywhere will compensate for the loss of that market. 

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Definitely on the train for some big numbers in Europe. The first one did very well at the tail end of COVID (and in the shadow of No Time To Die - a behemoth across Europe). Can easily see UK, Germany and France combining for $100m together.

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10 highest grossing territories might be something like:

 

France: $42M

United Kingdom: $40M

Germany: $37M

South Korea: $24M

China: $21M

Australia: $19M

Spain: $18M

Italy: $18M

Mexico: $14M

Japan: $13M

 

would be an increase of ~55m from Dune's 10 highest countries.

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3 hours ago, Flip said:

410-430m sounds good, as has been already said Europe will go crazy, China should drop 50%, the real question is if SK, Japan and LATAM will come out to see it

 

Covid era is tricky cause different countries or regions were not affected the same way at the same time. So it's hard to gauge whether low numbers were due to disinterest or pandemic raging in those countries or region at the time where it was dying down in other places. 

 

So what's the stoiry behind Japan's 6.7M total? People staying indoors or people not caring? Hard to tell.

 

Likewise LATAM. BOM reported only Mexico, Colombia and Brazil, all dismal numbers but if I rememebr correctly, LATAM was hit with covid the last so that could explain why only 3 countries show up on the list. The rest was probably indoors.

 

Either way, they should all increase only question is how much.

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Feel like UK, France and Germany together could provide $125M+ themselves. 

 

UK is giving me the feeling it'll have a big jump from the first. $50M+. IIRC it did incredibly well on home video there. France and Germany's 4x OW multi from PT. 1 also suggests a decent jump for PT. 2. 

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DUNC Top 10 Markets in 2021:

 

1.China 39M

2.UK 28.8M

3.France 25.4M

Russia 20.9M*can't count on due to war

4.Germany 20.9M

5.SK 14M

6.Oz 10.4M

7.Spain 9.3M

8.Italy 8.2M

9.Japan 6.7M

10.Netherlands 6.3M

 

Europ and Oz are locked for jumps even with unfavorable exchange rate. Asia remains a question mark but SK shows promise. The movie has hot stars, romance and action and that's what the market likes.

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Paris Premeiere on Feb 12.  London premiere on Feb 15.

 

From @Grand Cine in Dom thread:

 

Quote

 They have presales for Preview for the Paris Premiere and it was full in just ONE MINUTE

 

This will blow past the first one big time at least in France. Pandemic BO was $25.4M

Edited by Valonqar
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45 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Paris Premeiere on Feb 12.  London premiere on Feb 15.

 

From @Grand Cine in Dom thread:

 

 

This will blow past the first one big time at least in France. Pandemic BO was $25.4M

He will blow up , i confirmed , and the movie has a advantage , unlike the US , he will have NO COMPETITION because here ,in France , Kung Fu Panda 4 arrive on March 27, GvK on April 3rd and Ghostbusters on April 10 . They are nearest of Spring Holidays

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On 1/27/2024 at 2:00 PM, Valonqar said:

Likewise LATAM. BOM reported only Mexico, Colombia and Brazil, all dismal numbers but if I rememebr correctly, LATAM was hit with covid the last so that could explain why only 3 countries show up on the list. The rest was probably indoors.

I would say it overperformed because it was really leggy everywhere and yeah, COVID was still an issue but not really everywhere, it was different in Mexico than Brazil for example and for Let There be Carnage numbers were close to the original in Mexico, Argentina and Chile.

They're going all in promoting Part II but I still feel like it'll lean older despite its popular young cast. I'm expecting it to behave a bit like Maverick with pretty similar gross; great numbers (relative to expectations) but not blowing up compared to US/CAN and Europe.

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44 minutes ago, Parasite said:

Tbh I remember the Paris premiere for Part One also selling out super quickly, it's probably not very indicative. That being said, I also think Part Two is going to see a huge jump over Part One in France.

 

Agreed though it shows that interest is at least on the same level not less. 

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