President's Day Weekend Thread (2/16-19) | Bob Marley 28.6/34.1 (52 6-Day), Madame Web 15.3/18 (26 6-Day)

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think the continued pattern of good holds and unexpected mini breakouts and depth at the box office indicates that people are coming back and want to spend some money at the movies - I do worry that the utter lack of product compared to even a meh 2023 could lead to a lower ceiling for the year. You can only have so many 60-70m mini breakouts to add up to a total figure. 

I think the real problem is, yes, people want to come back, but movie theaters don't want to do the work to make it actually happen. At least in my neck of the woods. The idea of seeing a film has, for the past 10 years, been better than the actual experience of seeing a film. For every good experience I've had, I've also had a sub-par one. 

[titanic2187]

You can see how a 100m opening impacting the holdovers just looking at this weekend. Only two movies (Avatar 2 and PIB2) has single digit drop last year but this year we have four. Two of them (Wonka and Migration) even have increase.

 

Also, the 3 days weekend movement for One love almost mirror Alita. Alita added 50m after first Sunday and if One love followed that too, 100m is in sight. 

[JustWatching]

56 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think the continued pattern of good holds and unexpected mini breakouts and depth at the box office indicates that people are coming back and want to spend some money at the movies - I do worry that the utter lack of product compared to even a meh 2023 could lead to a lower ceiling for the year. You can only have so many 60-70m mini breakouts to add up to a total figure. 

I think it’s also indicative of, if you show it, they will come. My local cinemark, which prior to the strikes was strictly tentpoles, has screened basically everything over the past four or five months. That includes all the foreign language stuff, all the animated stuff, all the Oscar nominees, none of which they would have touched in normal times. I doubt it lasts but I’ve really been enjoying it.

[DAJK]

I for one would prefer a bunch of 50-100M grossers than a few mega blockbusters. Diversifying the types of films that can do well will mean studios will diversify the types of movies they make. Breakouts like One Love and Beekeeper are awesome for movie fans like us, even if we didn’t like the individual movies themselves.

[Grand Cine]

 

I don't know if anyone say this but here we go , maybe a other hit on digital like No Hard Feelings

[dallas]

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has become the 2nd highest grossing CBM of 2023 overseas, beating out Across the Spider-Verse. 

[JimmyB]

25 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I for one would prefer a bunch of 50-100M grossers than a few mega blockbusters. Diversifying the types of films that can do well will mean studios will diversify the types of movies they make. Breakouts like One Love and Beekeeper are awesome for movie fans like us, even if we didn’t like the individual movies themselves.

M3gan, Man From Otto, Jesus Revolution and  Cocaine Bear all made between 50-100m the first couple months last year and I dont remember people calling the marketplace heathy. You would preach theaters don't care about a movies budget they care how much the movie grosses.  Movie fans can like big blockbusters and goofy action like Beekeeper.  Theaters need event movies without them you get months like January & February 2024 where the grosses are pulling in numbers from the 90s.  

 

[emoviefan]

22 minutes ago, dallas said:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has become the 2nd highest grossing CBM of 2023 overseas, beating out Across the Spider-Verse. 

Imagine if they made a good movie that was not part of a dead and buried universe. What could of been.

[Valonqar]

39 minutes ago, dallas said:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has become the 2nd highest grossing CBM of 2023 overseas, beating out Across the Spider-Verse. 

 

Aquaman 2 is a rare bird, a bomb that saved its face. Legs, #2 biggest OS boxoffice. Bigger than Black Adam. Small victories are victories. 

[Valonqar]

16 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Aquaman 2 is a rare bird, a bomb that saved its face. Legs, #2 biggest OS boxoffice for a SH movie. Bigger than Black Adam. Small victories are victories. 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I for one would prefer a bunch of 50-100M grossers than a few mega blockbusters. Diversifying the types of films that can do well will mean studios will diversify the types of movies they make. Breakouts like One Love and Beekeeper are awesome for movie fans like us, even if we didn’t like the individual movies themselves.

I mean, yeah, of course, but what is preferable and what keeps movie theaters open are two different things.

[M37]

On 2/1/2024 at 4:56 PM, M37 said:

 

Since as noted, we very little data on Wed/Valentine's opening, decided to rope in the Thursday debuts as well to hopefully help illuminate. The data set still only includes 2 titles since 2013, but nonetheless there does seem to be an underlying pattern.

Here are the Friday to Monday daily grosses, as compared to the midweek Valentine's opening, whether it was on Wed or Thur

 

 

Some clear outliers: on the high end a more male skewing action flick in Jumper, as well as Alita (though if you include the Wed previews into the OD, it comes right back in line with the rest of the bunch, none of which had any previews of note). And on the low end, we the more Valentine's heavy titles like Safe Haven and Daddy's Little Girls. [Also, Isn't it Romantic actually opened on Wed, not Thur/V-Day, so could also see how it may have also dipped down into that lower range had some fraction of early demand not been burned off a day before]

 

More importantly, here's how that daily ebb and flow translates into respective multipliers, estimating a non-VDay Thursday value to fill in the blank for the the films that didn't actually have that day.

 

Title	3-Day	4-Day	6-Day (Est)
Alita TruVD (2019-Th)	4.52	5.31	6.68
Jumper (2008-Th)	4.13	4.84	6.21
Music & Lyrics (2007-W)	3.28	3.82	5.19
Alita Full OD (2019-Th)	3.24	3.80	5.17
Definitely Maybe (2008-Th)	3.13	3.68	5.05
Beautiful Creatures (2013-Th)	2.98	3.52	4.89
Good Day to Die Hard (2013-Th)	3.01	3.48	4.85
Step Up 2 (2008-Th)	2.87	3.35	4.72
Isn't it Romantic (2019-Wed*)	2.59	3.03	4.40
Daddy's Little Girls (2007-W)	2.45	2.86	4.23
Safe Haven (2013-Th)	2.42	2.77	4.14

 

With the caveat of this being a not so great data set, that cluster in the middle range sure seems like a decent place to set expectations, unless either of these films skew towards the high or low end outliers (or V-Day related movie habits have shifted a great deal over the past few years and we just don't have solid enough data to know it yet)

 

I think for Madame Web, my starting point would be Beautiful Creatures, with room to push higher. Off say a $4M OD/V-Day, would expect the rest of the extended weekend to be in the range of:

~$12M 3-day, $14M 4-day, and $20M 6-day

 

Not sure about Marley, though sales so far are suggesting its going to be V-Day heavier, and may track more like DLG, which didn't even manage a 3x V-Day for its ensuing 4-day weekend

Following up on this exercise (from the Tracking thread), here's how Madame and Marley fared compared to their V-day OD (based on revised Sunday estimates)

 

Marley clearly charted its own path - having a much larger fan rush pushing up the V-Day numbers, becoming the only films in the (admittedly sketchy) data set to fail to reach 4x V-Day for the 6-day run (3.70x)

 

However, Madame feeling the weight of, um, less than favorable WOM, ending up tracking down with the more romantic themed films, only managing a slightly better 4.30x 6-day, following very closely with Isn't it Romantic of all things

 

Going forward, Marley 4-day is very close to Alita - both with strong Sunday holds, and wouldn't be totally shocked if it legs out similarly, which would put $100M domestic at least in possible range. Madame is likely to continue to drop off quickly, and may struggle to even match the 4-day weekend total ($18M) for the rest of its run, finishing around - if not below - $45M

[keysersoze123]

Marley has done very well and I expect it to make 100m domestic with the WOM its having. Even Web has done better than what I expected. I guess empty market and a week good for theatrical releases ensured the numbers that it did. But it will collapse this week. 

[Becker]

Had to opportunity to watch "Ordinary Angels", starring Hillary Swank and Buff Reacher, in an AMC mystery screening last night. It's loosely faith based and if it gains any traction, it is my belief that it will break out. Big Tear Jerker, for the family, and the best Christian(?) in a long while. 

[JustWatching]

Marley’s OW beat Mean Girls’ OW by 20k, so it gets to wear the biggest opening weekend of the year crown for a couple weeks.

[Krissykins]

On 2/17/2024 at 3:17 AM, DAJK said:

I don’t think there are ANY relevant memes about Madame Web. And I’m the resident tiktoker on these boards.

 

Kraven will have a higher total than MW, I have zero doubt.

They’re everywhere now 😂 

 

Maybe TikTok is taking a while to catch up to Twitter

 

https://x.com/1followernodad/status/1760069831796351089?s=46&t=ivGmGl6bx9yMhARnU2Vzxw
 

https://x.com/davemcnamee3000/status/1760032216091185168?s=46&t=ivGmGl6bx9yMhARnU2Vzxw
 

https://x.com/georgeciveris/status/1760178969658147119?s=46&t=ivGmGl6bx9yMhARnU2Vzxw

 

https://x.com/marquishoney/status/1759795534959886495?s=46&t=ivGmGl6bx9yMhARnU2Vzxw
 

https://x.com/kirawontmiss/status/1758209896133046697?s=46&t=ivGmGl6bx9yMhARnU2Vzxw

 

[Spidey Freak]

On 2/20/2024 at 12:47 AM, Valonqar said:

 

Aquaman 2 is a rare bird, a bomb that saved its face. Legs, #2 biggest OS boxoffice. Bigger than Black Adam. Small victories are victories. 

 

Sony giving AtSV the worst release date where OS theatres couldn't keep it around due to an uninterrupted string of new releases is not a victory for Aquaman 2 as much as Sony leaving money on the table. Neither is dropping near 700M from its predecessor. And obvsly AQM2 would be bigger OS than Black Adam. BA didn't get a China release lol.

 

It's not as disastrous as The Marvels I guess.

Edited February 21 by Spidey Freak

[Valonqar]

20 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Sony giving AtSV the worst release date where OS theatres couldn't keep it around due to an uninterrupted string of new releases is not a victory for Aquaman 2 as much as Sony leaving money on the table. Neither is dropping near 700M from its predecessor. And obvsly AQM2 would be bigger OS than Black Adam. BA didn't get a China release lol.

 

It's not as disastrous as The Marvels I guess.

 

That's what I'm saying. Smart release date on WB part and obviously Momoa holds some appeal since the movie didn't collapse after the holiday season. Bomb to be sure but a Pyrric win in comparison to some other bombs that didn't have a likeable star to tide them over. 

[Spidey Freak]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

That's what I'm saying. Smart release date on WB part and obviously Momoa holds some appeal since the movie didn't collapse after the holiday season. Bomb to be sure but a Pyrric win in comparison to some other bombs that didn't have a likeable star to tide them over. 

 

The exact same film would have made even more money for the reasons you mentioned if WB hadn't announced way beforehand that it was the last installment of a now defunct franchise so I wouldn't call anything they did smart. They lucked out by giving up on the movie and spending very little on marketing but even that shows the fact that they weren't smart enough to trust Momoa's appeal.