Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[Starphanluke]

Pretty neat that a Dune movie designed to kind of make you feel like shit at the end got an A Cinemascore. We’re in the best timeline (for this one specific thing).

[von Kenni]

Dune Walkups Tomorrow for $80M OW

 

Based on MTC1 comps when comparing Dune 1 and Dune 2 performance the walkups today were even lousier than yesterday with previews in relative turns. For previews, Dune 2 had 133% of Dune 1 walkups and today 128%. Based on Dune 1 FRI BO and ATP differences true FRI expected value is $20.5M which is aligned with the public $30-34M estimates ($12M previews + $20.5M = $32.5M).

 

I made below three scenarios for SAT actuals based on Dune 1 comps. Presales are stellar 224% of Dune 1 but if the walkups tomorrow are as lousy as today, then SAT is around $25.9M, which would be 26.6% jump from true FRI but would need just -16.9% drop in order to reach that mystical $80M OW. It would need clearly better walkups (140% of Dune 1) to reach a feasible scenario for $80M OW. If the WOM is there and the other hoped dynamics, why not, but it needs to do much better than today in any case.

 

That said, take all this with a grain of salt. Based on MTC1 Dune 1 comps THU previews should be $9.1M and based on industry reports it's somewhere between $9.5M and $10M. So if it is underperforming here too, FRI actuals will be a little bit higher and the SAT walkups don't necessarily need to be better at all or just by little to reach that $80M. Anyways, it probably won't go below $76M unless the rest of the weekend walkups are considerably worse than today and the Sunday drop is more than -28%.

 

If the true FRI is $21M (MTC1 underperforming like with previews) then similar walkups as today and with Sunday drop under 25% it would be around $80M.

 

 

[grim22]

Post by @hideo_kojima

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[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

So good it left him speechless I see

[vale9001]

You're too conservative about the legs of this. Even with 75M opening i see It closer to 250M than 200. Competion is low for months and WOM will be amazing and Better than the first. 

Edited March 2 by vale9001

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

You're too conservative about the legs of this. Even with 75M opening i see It closer to 250M than 200. Competion is low for months and WOM will be amazing and Better than the first. 

Bur we have plenty of example that some movies even with great exit WOM, their legs just aren’t good. MI7, JW4, DnD and TCP all have A cinemascore and >90% exit but couldn’t leg out well. The correlation between WOM and legs just got tricky post-Covid. 
 

No doubt dune 2 is expertly crafted and WOM is guaranteed to be stellar but the movie has some unusual creative choice and character treatment for tentpole blockbusters. I myself love the movie but also have to acknowledge that this isn’t some “crowd-pleaser” that appeal to different demographics. The legs is gonna either “good” or “bad”. 
 

 

[TinaDuraes]

15 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Letterboxd is just IMDB with fewer users

Letterboxd is way more used than IMDB nowadays, at least for rating stuff

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Bur we have plenty of example that some movies even with great exit WOM, their legs just aren’t good. MI7, JW4, DnD and TCP all have A cinemascore and >90% exit but couldn’t leg out well. The correlation between WOM and legs just got tricky post-Covid. 
 

No doubt dune 2 is expertly crafted and WOM is guaranteed to be stellar but the movie has some unusual creative choice and character treatment for tentpole blockbusters. I myself love the movie but also have to acknowledge that this isn’t some “crowd-pleaser” that appeal to different demographics. The legs is gonna either “good” or “bad”. 
 

 

It's not like i'm saying It's gonna have a 5x multiplier. From a 76-77 First weekend 240-250 total is like 3.1-3.2X multiplier. The dark night wasn't this very optimistic light movie and from a very big  first weekend still saw a 3.5 multiplier. From a 155M First weekend. 

 

MI7 wasn't this acclaimed. After i saw It i can say It's just another MI movie with nothing special. Doesn't have the "you are not fan of the saga but should Watch this" special factor like the dark night with batman, Sky fall with bond (another acclaimed dark movie got an 4.6 unseen multiplier in the US for the saga) and this movie imo with dune.

 

Plus we all know about the distribution "mess" with the barbenheimer coming the week after It.

 

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

Pretty neat that a Dune movie designed to kind of make you feel like shit at the end got an A Cinemascore. We’re in the best timeline (for this one specific thing).

 

I wouldn't say it makes you feel like shit. It's in the vein of Nolan movies where it's "serious" but not really "grim" per se. Relatively old-fashioned clash of good vs evil.

[AJG]

37 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

Letterboxd is way more used than IMDB nowadays, at least for rating stuff

 

So.... 

 

This isn't true at all, isn't it?

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

 

Just gotta buy $8M worth of seats 😭

Sat PS looks good, maybe 33-29-22  

[Krissykins]

36 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

So.... 

 

This isn't true at all, isn't it?

I think it could be true. For example, Inception on Letterboxd has 3.5m watches. It has a million less on IMDB.  

A much smaller film, Midsommar 2.5m ratings on Letterboxd, 400k on IMDB.

 

I’m sure IMDB still has much more traffic though, for people checking “what’s he from?”. 

Edited March 2 by Krissykins

[wildphantom]

PLF ratio is absurd from what I’m looking like in the UK.  Pre-sales rock solid in those screens all week and into the following week.  People want to see it the full premium way, and will wait if they have to. 
 

Yet again we have a movie that will prove multiplexes need to get more of these screens. It should be a priority for the business 

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Bur we have plenty of example that some movies even with great exit WOM, their legs just aren’t good. MI7, JW4, DnD and TCP all have A cinemascore and >90% exit but couldn’t leg out well. The correlation between WOM and legs just got tricky post-Covid. 
 

No doubt dune 2 is expertly crafted and WOM is guaranteed to be stellar but the movie has some unusual creative choice and character treatment for tentpole blockbusters. I myself love the movie but also have to acknowledge that this isn’t some “crowd-pleaser” that appeal to different demographics. The legs is gonna either “good” or “bad”. 
 

 

Original with day and date  A-  didn't have shit legs . Don't know why you would think this would have bad legs with better reception and little to no competition.

 

Not expecting 3x legs either. 2.7* + legs are good .

 

Discourse around this movie gets weird at times. 

 

Before first one came out . Some expected this too bomb hard but it made 400m with day and date. OS reception was really good.

 

Is it your typical  crowd pleaser . Ofcorse not,  and the first movie wasn't either and look how that turned out with all it's constraints .

 

You don't open to 75-80m without some appeal or pull.

 

Didn't love the first movie all that much but this " whole GA didn't love it and found it boring discourse " tiresome . Yeah 8+ on IMDb,90%AS ,A-. Big jump in OW. Says otherwise.

 

Marvels,Indy5 ,flash couldn't even make that amount on ow.

 

Dune doesn't have your typical   four quadrant  tentpole appeal but it's not as  niche/ audience limiting  as some thought.

 

This is probably finishing 600M+ WW. Not a lot of crowdpleasers tentpoles reach that amount at box office.

 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

It's not like i'm saying It's gonna have a 5x multiplier. From a 76-77 First weekend 240-250 total is like 3.1-3.2X multiplier. The dark night wasn't this very optimistic light movie and from a very big  first weekend still saw a 3.5 multiplier. From a 155M First weekend. 

 

Setting aside that (virtually) nothing makes between $225 and $325M domestic, March movies don't typical have those kind of legs, because the weekdays are softer (even with Spring Break) and OW is higher as more business is squeezed into it

 

 

I think off a ~$76M OW, a $200M+ total is still in play and a solid target, but should not set expectations too much higher than that

 

Dune II is to me basically Logan, but with less competition ahead of it, or Batman without an early streaming release

[Liiviig 1998]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Setting aside that (virtually) nothing makes between $225 and $325M domestic, March movies don't typical have those kind of legs, because the weekdays are softer (even with Spring Break) and OW is higher as more business is squeezed into it

 

 

I think off a ~$76M OW, a $200M+ total is still in play and a solid target, but should not set expectations too much higher than that

 

Dune II is to me basically Logan, but with less competition ahead of it, or Batman without an early streaming release

Just reminds of the time some were dissapointed by batman  ow and numbers but after 2022 and 2023 we look at those numbers with respect.

2023 was a terrible year for established franchise tentpoles.

 

 

[vale9001]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Setting aside that (virtually) nothing makes between $225 and $325M domestic, March movies don't typical have those kind of legs, because the weekdays are softer (even with Spring Break) and OW is higher as more business is squeezed into it

 

 

I think off a ~$76M OW, a $200M+ total is still in play and a solid target, but should not set expectations too much higher than that

 

Dune II is to me basically Logan, but with less competition ahead of it, or Batman without an early streaming release

 

I have followed in the last year other 2 movies here: Barbie and Wonka 😉

For both you were predicting way worse legs than what we got it. While i appreciate predictions about a weekend based on Sales numbers, the predictions about legs are not predictable by graphics. It's about how the art hits when It's out there for people to watch It. 

No reason for Skyfall to make 310M final from a 66M first weekend or for Oppenheimer 320M from an 80M First weekend .

But they made It. 

 

 

Edited March 2 by vale9001

[JustLurking]

I mean, yeah, legs can sometimes be the hardest thing to predict, and when something surprises...well, it surprises. Doesn't mean you should throw out every possible baseline and data point for it though, nor does it mean hoping for higher is impossible

 

Given how explosive reception for this is (not to repeat myself but those posttrak exits are not far off A+ films), and how little competition there is, I'm hoping WOM and repeats get us atleast 3x, any higher and I'll be elated, any lower and I'll be mildly disappointed

[stephanos13]

30 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

PLF ratio is absurd from what I’m looking like in the UK.  Pre-sales rock solid in those screens all week and into the following week.  People want to see it the full premium way, and will wait if they have to. 
 

Yet again we have a movie that will prove multiplexes need to get more of these screens. It should be a priority for the business 

 

Third year in a row we have this situation.

 

Avatar The Way of Water, Oppenheimer and now Dune II.

 

We are probably going to see more of this happening in the future if the demand is bigger than what the theaters can offer.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

I have followed in the last year other 2 movies here: Barbie and Wonka 😉

For both you were predicting way worse legs than what we got it. While i appreciate predictions about a weekend based on Sales numbers, the predictions about legs are not predictable by graphics. It's about how the art hits when It's out there for people to watch It. 

No reason for Skyfall to make 310M final from a 66M first weekend or for Oppenheimer 320M from an 80M First weekend .

But they made It. 

 

 

My dude, Wonka is going to make less than 4x it’s first week ($57M), which is right in line with the comps from that pre-pre-Xmas weekend data set, when I was trying to talk people out of the $250-$300M+ hype train after OW 

 

So where exactly was I wrong?