Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[wildphantom]

I’m reminded of that great poster that came out promoting the Star Wars Trilogy Special Editions in 1997

 

”Three reasons why they build movie theaters”

 

The trailer stated a generation had only seen Star Wars on the tv screen. “If you’ve only seen it this way, you haven’t seen it at all”.  
 

They were of course correct, and now we have a sci-fi epic in Dune Part Two that is every bit the experience of Lucas’s trilogy. Only they didn’t build enough theaters for people to see what it was made for. 

 

These early numbers are good of course, but the reason they’re not bigger is there isn’t enough screens to see it on. Simple as that. 
 

That should be the industry’s takeaway from opening weekend.  The gargantuan PLF slice is literally screaming at them to invest in how people want to see event movies in 2024 and beyond. 

[misterpepp]

12 minutes ago, kocunar said:

Hello guys, my first ever post here. I've been following the forums for a while so I just wanted to say my 2 cents. 

 

Welcome! The more perspectives, the better. 

[MightyDargon]

It still has 2 more weeks of PLF exclusivity.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I’m reminded of that great poster that came out promoting the Star Wars Trilogy Special Editions in 1997

 

”Three reasons why they build movie theaters”

 

The trailer stated a generation had only seen Star Wars on the tv screen. “If you’ve only seen it this way, you haven’t seen it at all”.  
 

They were of course correct, and now we have a sci-fi epic in Dune Part Two that is every bit the experience of Lucas’s trilogy. Only they didn’t build enough theaters for people to see what it was made for. 

 

These early numbers are good of course, but the reason they’re not bigger is there isn’t enough screens to see it on. Simple as that. 
 

That should be the industry’s takeaway from opening weekend.  The gargantuan PLF slice is literally screaming at them to invest in how people want to see event movies in 2024 and beyond. 

 

 

They've needed more PLF screens for a long time. But it's a huge investment and theaters don't make enough money to justify this expense. They are also very dependent on the studios to put out high quality movies that people want to watch. That's a massive problem for theater owners & investors, since they have zero control over the quality of films being pumped out each month. 

[TJ327]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The likely break even point for a 190M budget is not even 500M, this is making + 600M. Other than keep saying how WB expects more without any evidence of that, it’ll be a commercially success that can grow more next time. Why waist pages throwing fear that maybe the next one will be cancelled?

This is what I don’t understand. Can someone point to evidence that WB was expecting this to be the next Star Wars? They predicted $65 mil domestic likely to keep it safe KNOWING this is a niche property AND the general movie going climate. They know it’s not 2019 anymore. They don’t like it but the numbers don’t lie.

 

It’s performing about as well as anyone with reasonable expectations could’ve hoped, which is to say it’s a moderate success.

[Firepower]

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Dude but where did you take this 500M number? 
 

This thread has been annoying to read mostly because you keep throwing numbers and internal expectations that doesn’t make sense

I'm using x2.8 multi off 170 mln WW start + potential 50 mln from China. John Wick 4 also had outstanding reception and great start, but had lower multi than all previous John Wick films.

 

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This is opening to at least 75M DOM. It’s reaching 180-190M DOM at least. Can you realize it would need to gross the same thing OS of the first for the movie to ends up with 500M? 

180-190 DOM is not good for this, it needs to cross 200 mln at least. I'm not saying strictly 500M, More like 500-550 range.

 

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Off a +100M OS start with the best results coming from backloaded markets, it’s probably getting at least 400M OS.

So even by your own estimates it might not reach 600 mln?

 

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The likely break even point for a 190M budget is not even 500M

You are right, it could be higher.

 

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Other than keep saying how WB expects more without any evidence of that, it’ll be a commercially success that can grow more next time. Why waist pages throwing fear that maybe the next one will be cancelled?

Jeff Sneider claimed WB expects 100 mln OW. I think 1 bln came either from him or some other scooper. If we pretend it's not true and WB are not under crazy pills, I assure you they expected it to gross more than what the first one would've grossed without HBO Max release and Covid. 600 mln is bare minimum it should gross, anything under is obviously a disappointment.

Edited March 3 by Firepower

[PlatnumRoyce]

Quote

Dune breakeven discussion

Do we know anything about how Legendary & WB split costs/revenue on the film/this series?

[MightyDargon]

I don't think even Variety's "numbers from opposing studios" (which are always highballs) were predicting over 85 mil.

Considering how many movies WB has liquidated this doing enough to get Messiah made is a miracle.

Who the fuck cares what Jeff Sneider says, none of his stuff has any basis in verified fact.

Edited March 3 by MightyDargon

[4815162342]

30 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Listening to the Dune 2 soundtrack all day has me convinced that this is indeed the most Hans has ever Zimmered.

 

 

Not even close 

[patyx]

28 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

Sure but should we really count that if both divisions are owned by the same entity?

For simplicity -  company that owns a streaming service makes a movie, with a budget of 200M. First, they get money from the movie's box office. Then some ancillaries. But they are also investing in the brand of their streaming service. And it's not even as easy as counting the minutes watched or times played. They are investing in movies that will draw people to subscribe, and this money will keep flowing as long as there are quality movies on the platfom, both old and new releases. For me, WB is clearly banking on making Dune one of their big franchises. So, returning to your question, if the streaming division has money flowing in, and people are watching the movie made by their production division, there has to be some kind of relation - and I'm not talking about them sending invoices to each other. Surely they do in-depth analysis of this process and figure out which movies will benefit them the most in the long run. You can kinda see this when studios are selling a movie to another streaming service - from what I understand, they often pay a flat fee. To me, this money can be deducted from the budget when calculating box office and break even point.

[MightyDargon]

I mean, Mutant Mayhem got a sequel and people here said that underperformed. I take what people here say with a grain of salt. Especially after the "Aquaman 2 didn't flop" fiasco.

[The Wild Eric]

WE ARE OLD

 

 

[misterpepp]

53 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Purely as a point of trivia, I've been poking around the Lantern digital media project and it's really funny just how long the "2x the production budget" rule of thumb lasted. I've seen it cited in the 1950s, 1980s, 1990s, and (obviously) 2000s-present. There's probably truth to it that's changed over time but "conventional wisdom" can be pretty old.  

 

https://archive.org/details/filmbulletin195523film/page/n95/mode/2up?view=theater

 

Oh for sure, I'm positive there was plenty of truth to it at one point or another. I would have to assume that ballooning marketing costs to promote increasingly expensive movies were what might've dented the rule's usability.

 

Greatly appreciate sharing the old Film Bulletin, by the way. Reading through that, it's interesting how some bits of information there are still relevant nearly 70 years later.

[MightyDargon]

Pretty sure Mutant Mayhem failed the x2 rule and got a sequel announcement anyway. I'm not complaining. It just did.

[Firepower]

Look, if it gets 4x multi, it will look like a big box office event carried by WOM. But if it's gonna get 2.8x, this is definitely not LOTR/Star Wars event box office-wise, like not even close. Let's not pretend 500-550 mln range is great for it because it's not at all. As long as it does over 600 mln in the end, I'm ok, I hope it succeeds, I really do. If not, it would be an interesting case of a universally beloved movie with strong internet hype and big marketing campaign that didn't translate to actual general audience interest.

Edited March 3 by Firepower

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

No offense, but it's very clear nobody's minds are being changed on whether Dune 2 is seen as a success, and we've been talking in circles for several pages now. Do we have to keep fighting over this on a loop when there will be no resolution? Besides, it's been one day. Just one day. Why are we now making these sweeping proclamations after just one day? Just a tad silly, no?

Oh just saw this, yeah agreed thanks

[AJG]

3 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

WE ARE OLD

 

 

and The Oscars became an obnoxious endurance test almost instantaneously.

[ThomasNicole]

I can’t believe i just read Jeff Sneider being quoted as a strong confirmation of something lol

 

 

[misterpepp]

16 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

I mean, Mutant Mayhem got a sequel and people here said that underperformed. I take what people here say with a grain of salt. Especially after the "Aquaman 2 didn't flop" fiasco.

 

Mutant Mayhem did underperform, regardless of its sequel announcement. Its opening wasn't great, its domestic total was rather weak despite solid legs, and its overseas numbers were, to be quite honest, very poor. Perhaps it did well on VOD/streaming, but considering there weren't any headlines about how huge its debut was in that realm, I'll assume it did good/fine at best.

 

That being said, I believe Paramount greenlit a sequel not basing it purely on the box office, and I think we'll start to see more sequels greenlit following that line of thinking in the future (Funnily enough, the first Dune and Ghostbusters: Afterlife come to mind for me as titles whose box office numbers don't look great without context but sequels were initiated nonetheless). It was mentioned elsewhere that merchandise sales off Mutant Mayhem were very strong, but I also think they fairly feel that, given the strong reception to MM, a sequel will see an increase similar to Spider-Verse 1 -> 2 or even this weekend's Dune 1 -> 2 growth.

Edited March 3 by misterpepp

[nguyenkhoi282]

WTF is everyone on about. Where is this 500M doom and gloom coming from?

 

Dune 1 made 2.6x its OW domestic while being widely available on streaming Day 1. Dune 2 at minimum opens with 75M and 2.6x of that already 200M. I am willing to bet that it hit 3x for like 230M or so. 

 

Dune 1 made 300M OS. This one is opening at least 50% larger in every market, some even doubling. Same legs send it almost 450M OS already. Personally, I see it hitting 500-550M for much better reception.

 

Even at lower end for both DOM and OS, it is making 600M WW, and high end 750M+. That's is blockbuster level for sure, especially with a very reasonable budget of under 190M. 

 

This movie is literally firing on all cylinders from quality to reception of critics and audiences and box office number alike and some of you guys are still like puff this thing flops eck so meh. WHAT???

 

Edited March 3 by nguyenkhoi282
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