3/4-3/7 Weekdays Thread | Dune $7.3m Monday, $8.1m Tuesday, $6.6m Wednesday

[kayumanggi]

 

[Bob Train]

Same jumps as The Batman would project to a $51m weekend. Creed 3 projects to $53m weekend. 

[Last Man Standing]

Voldemort is saying 6.5m Wedensday on twitter, but it's "very early".

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

21 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

 

GOD IN HEAVEN

[Brainbug]

8,1M -> 6,5M

 

Would be a -19,7% drop.

[TMP]

This thing's hitting $300m. It's broken into the zeitgeist like a $300m performer does

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ok. We will see. I am thinking 20% or tad lower. 

[Daxtreme]

AS IT WAS WRITTEN

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Are you the messiah?

[TMP]

KEYSER AL GAIB

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Are you the messiah?

To me it obvious from yesterday. Its Imax/PLF have similar sales for entire week and WOM is out of the world. Why will it drop like a Super hero movie or normal blockbuster. We should be comping this with Oppenheimer which dropped on tuesday and then had a mild wednesday drop. 

[Grand Cine]

I saw the last First Big Openers of March (30M+ openers) in the last 10 years and i saw that they often have the same jump Wed/Fri no matter The Thursday drop

 

The Batman : +119% (8,47M/18,61M)

Creed 3 : +123% (3,37M/7,53M)

Captain Marvel : +121% (8,58M/19,03M)

Logan : +83% (5,64M/10,36M)

Zootopie : +224% (3,72M/12,08M)

Cinderella : +107% (4,57M/9,47M)

Mr Peabody : +130% (2,36M/5,45M)

300 Partie II : +87% (3,08M/5,76M)

 

In general ( unless Zootopie (animation movie so big jump) , 300 (bad WOM) and Logan (competition with Kong which have the same demo target) ) all the movie have a jump Wed/Fri around 110%-120% especially with the first 3 movies of this list with the same jump so it's my preidction for Dune 2 : 120% jump Wed/Fri , so if the prediction of 6,5M is good , my prediction is at 14,3M for Friday

 

Now For Sat and Sun : unless 300 ( same argument of Friday) and Zootopie/Peabody ( same argument of Zoo for Fri), the average of Fri/Sat jump is between 50-60% so it will be between 21,45M-22,9M , and i think he will match the same jump as The Batman (+51%) so my prediction for Saturday is 21,6M

For Sunday , the drop is between 30-35% and i think he will be around 30% so my prediction for Sunday is 15,1M

 

Total of Weekend 2 for me : 51M ( so around 38% !!! better than Oppenheimer)

 

A little better than you anticipate @keysersoze123

 

PS : i will update with Wednesday actuals tomorrow

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I saw the last First Big Openers of March (30M+ openers) in the last 10 years and i saw that they often have the same jump Wed/Fri no matter The Thursday drop

 

The Batman : +119% (8,47M/18,61M)

Creed 3 : +123% (3,37M/7,53M)

Captain Marvel : +121% (8,58M/19,03M)

Logan : +83% (5,64M/10,36M)

Zootopie : +224% (3,72M/12,08M)

Cinderella : +107% (4,57M/9,47M)

Mr Peabody : +130% (2,36M/5,45M)

300 Partie II : +87% (3,08M/5,76M)

 

In general ( unless Zootopie (animation movie so big jump) , 300 (bad WOM) and Logan (competition with Kong which have the same demo target) ) all the movie have a jump Wed/Fri around 110%-120% especially with the first 3 movies of this list with the same jump so it's my preidction for Dune 2 : 120% jump Wed/Fri , so if the prediction of 6,5M is good , my prediction is at 14,3M for Friday

 

Now For Sat and Sun : unless 300 ( same argument of Friday) and Zootopie/Peabody ( same argument of Zoo for Fri), the average of Fri/Sat jump is between 50-60% so it will be between 21,45M-22,9M , and i think he will match the same jump as The Batman (+51%) so my prediction for Saturday is 21,6M

For Sunday , the drop is between 30-35% and i think he will be around 30% so my prediction for Sunday is 15,1M

 

Total of Weekend 2 for me : 51M ( so around 38% !!! better than Oppenheimer)

 

A little better than you anticipate @keysersoze123

 

PS : i will update with Wednesday actuals tomorrow

 

 

 

Oppy had very strong summer weekdays, which probably deflated the second weekend to an extent. In terms of the Friday jump, Dune Part 2 has a stronger PLF boost than the other March films you mentioned. This usually hurts the ability of a movie to jump by the same amount as movies that don't have the same PLF boost. We'll see how it shakes out! 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I saw the last First Big Openers of March (30M+ openers) in the last 10 years and i saw that they often have the same jump Wed/Fri no matter The Thursday drop

 

The Batman : +119% (8,47M/18,61M)

Creed 3 : +123% (3,37M/7,53M)

Captain Marvel : +121% (8,58M/19,03M)

Logan : +83% (5,64M/10,36M)

Zootopie : +224% (3,72M/12,08M)

Cinderella : +107% (4,57M/9,47M)

Mr Peabody : +130% (2,36M/5,45M)

300 Partie II : +87% (3,08M/5,76M)

 

In general ( unless Zootopie (animation movie so big jump) , 300 (bad WOM) and Logan (competition with Kong which have the same demo target) ) all the movie have a jump Wed/Fri around 110%-120% especially with the first 3 movies of this list with the same jump so it's my preidction for Dune 2 : 120% jump Wed/Fri , so if the prediction of 6,5M is good , my prediction is at 14,3M for Friday

 

Now For Sat and Sun : unless 300 ( same argument of Friday) and Zootopie/Peabody ( same argument of Zoo for Fri), the average of Fri/Sat jump is between 50-60% so it will be between 21,45M-22,9M , and i think he will match the same jump as The Batman (+51%) so my prediction for Saturday is 21,6M

For Sunday , the drop is between 30-35% and i think he will be around 30% so my prediction for Sunday is 15,1M

 

Total of Weekend 2 for me : 51M ( so around 38% !!! better than Oppenheimer)

 

A little better than you anticipate @keysersoze123

 

PS : i will update with Wednesday actuals tomorrow

 

 

I like to be conservative. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

[redfirebird2008]

13 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I saw the last First Big Openers of March (30M+ openers) in the last 10 years and i saw that they often have the same jump Wed/Fri no matter The Thursday drop

 

The Batman : +119% (8,47M/18,61M)

Creed 3 : +123% (3,37M/7,53M)

Captain Marvel : +121% (8,58M/19,03M)

Logan : +83% (5,64M/10,36M)

Zootopie : +224% (3,72M/12,08M)

Cinderella : +107% (4,57M/9,47M)

Mr Peabody : +130% (2,36M/5,45M)

300 Partie II : +87% (3,08M/5,76M)

 

In general ( unless Zootopie (animation movie so big jump) , 300 (bad WOM) and Logan (competition with Kong which have the same demo target) ) all the movie have a jump Wed/Fri around 110%-120% especially with the first 3 movies of this list with the same jump so it's my preidction for Dune 2 : 120% jump Wed/Fri , so if the prediction of 6,5M is good , my prediction is at 14,3M for Friday

 

Now For Sat and Sun : unless 300 ( same argument of Friday) and Zootopie/Peabody ( same argument of Zoo for Fri), the average of Fri/Sat jump is between 50-60% so it will be between 21,45M-22,9M , and i think he will match the same jump as The Batman (+51%) so my prediction for Saturday is 21,6M

For Sunday , the drop is between 30-35% and i think he will be around 30% so my prediction for Sunday is 15,1M

 

Total of Weekend 2 for me : 51M ( so around 38% !!! better than Oppenheimer)

 

A little better than you anticipate @keysersoze123

 

PS : i will update with Wednesday actuals tomorrow

 

 

 

$51 million is not 38% better than Oppy's 2nd weekend, which was $46.7 million. That would be a 9.2% difference instead of the 38% you posted. Not sure how you came up with 38%. 

 

Weekday performance is Oppy at $45.4 million and Dune Part 2 around $28.5 million, which is a 59% gap in favor of Oppy on the weekdays. That gap in weekday performance is why Oppy will be ahead of Dune Part 2 by more than $10 million after the 2nd weekend, unless Dune Part 2 pulls a miracle and grosses $63 million for the 2nd weekend. 

[MightyDargon]

Wild Robot looks like it could totally kill Dune!!!1

 

...wait, they're showing a FOURTH Kung Fu Panda as their attempt at counterprogramming?!

Oh well, back to bed for me.

[Grand Cine]

22 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

$51 million is not 38% better than Oppy's 2nd weekend, which was $46.7 million. That would be a 9.2% difference instead of the 38% you posted. Not sure how you came up with 38%. 

 

Weekday performance is Oppy at $45.4 million and Dune Part 2 around $28.5 million, which is a 59% gap in favor of Oppy on the weekdays. That gap in weekday performance is why Oppy will be ahead of Dune Part 2 by more than $10 million after the 2nd weekend, unless Dune Part 2 pulls a miracle and grosses $63 million for the 2nd weekend. 

Sorry i would say -38% drop from OW , so a better weekend than Oppy in % and Million

And Yes , weekdays are very strong for Oppy (thanks to summer and great WOM) so for sure the weekend is less high than normal , but if my prediction is good , the hold is really strong for Dune especially with good previews and with the competition of KFP .

 

PS : if i remove the previews ( i will take the 11,25M predicted by @charlie Jatinder) , it's around -28% drop !!!

 

I will drop more stats tomorrow once they will have Wednesday numbers ( spoilers : it's about % drop )

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Grand Cine said:

Sorry i would say -38% drop from OW , so a better weekend than Oppy in % and Million

And Yes , weekdays are very strong for Oppy (thanks to summer and great WOM) so for sure the weekend is less high than normal , but if my prediction is good , the hold is really strong for Dune especially with good previews and with the competition of KFP .

 

PS : if i remove the previews ( i will take the 11,25M predicted by @charlie Jatinder) , it's around -28% drop !!!

 

I will drop more stats tomorrow once they will have Wednesday numbers ( spoilers : it's about % drop )

 

$51M for a 38% drop on the weekend would be awesome to see for Dune Part 2. I think anything above $44M (46% drop) would be a great result. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Wow, if Wednesdays holds are as good a predicted, perhaps I do have to eat my words.