3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

[ando]

7 minutes ago, elhassane31 said:

When will the first Saturday estimates drop?

Let's get past noon on the East Coast first lmao

[kayumanggi]

19.40M KUNG FU PANDA IV

12.30M DUNE II

3.60M IMAGINARY

3.09M CABRINI

1.10M BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE

0.71M LOVE LIES BLEEDIND

0.59M PROBLEMISTA

[Brainbug]

The Sat jump for Dune will be massive. We saw with Avatar 2 that the long runtime led to a bit muted Friday increases (because on Friday, most people still have to work, its only logical) while the Sat jumps and Sun holds were amazing. I expect a similar pattern for Dune going forward.

 

The numbers so far for Panda 4 are amazing. I guess i underestimated the nostalgic appeal of the series, but like others have said, the family movie market was so barren in recent months that the next family movie was bound to profit from that.

 

On the Ghostbusters/Godzilla discussion, i too think that Ghostbusters might be the one to suffer a bit this March, simply because i have the feeling that Ghostbusters as a series just isnt that big of a draw anymore and is a bit outplayed. Godzilla x Kong though i still have quite a good feeling. Godzilla vs Kong only grossed 100M DOM because of the pandemic and HBO Max situation, so it underperformed its theatralic potential by quite a margin i would think. The new one might also profit from beeing the first truly "popcorn" blockbuster of the year, since Dune 2 is certainly a more dark, heavier movie.

 

But for people who just want to have some brainless fun at the theaters, i think GxK will be a more popular choice than Ghostbusters.

[vafrow]

So, with Dune coming in low and Panda coming in high, are we looking at two movies that could fall into the rare $225M-$325M chasm.

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

So, with Dune coming in low and Panda coming in high, are we looking at two movies that could fall into the rare $225M-$325M chasm.

 

The last time two March films finished with 200M each was seven years ago with BATB [504.0M] and LOGAN [226.3M].

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Is Dreamworks Animation looking at KFP4 as their first potential $200M+ DOM-blockbuster in 12 years since “Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted” back in 2012?

 

Considering there’s no other big animated film for a while until The Garfield Movie in May. So there’s nothing much else for the animation fans and families in over two months.

[emoviefan]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

The Sat jump for Dune will be massive. We saw with Avatar 2 that the long runtime led to a bit muted Friday increases (because on Friday, most people still have to work, its only logical) while the Sat jumps and Sun holds were amazing. I expect a similar pattern for Dune going forward.

 

The numbers so far for Panda 4 are amazing. I guess i underestimated the nostalgic appeal of the series, but like others have said, the family movie market was so barren in recent months that the next family movie was bound to profit from that.

 

On the Ghostbusters/Godzilla discussion, i too think that Ghostbusters might be the one to suffer a bit this March, simply because i have the feeling that Ghostbusters as a series just isnt that big of a draw anymore and is a bit outplayed. Godzilla x Kong though i still have quite a good feeling. Godzilla vs Kong only grossed 100M DOM because of the pandemic and HBO Max situation, so it underperformed its theatralic potential by quite a margin i would think. The new one might also profit from beeing the first truly "popcorn" blockbuster of the year, since Dune 2 is certainly a more dark, heavier movie.

 

But for people who just want to have some brainless fun at the theaters, i think GxK will be a more popular choice than Ghostbusters.

And coming out Easter weekend will only help. Lots of kids will be out of school for spring break and good friday and adults not working. The IM for the weekend will probably not be great though. Sunday numbers will take a hit. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

Jokes aside, I'm expecting 21-24M Saturday for Dune, 70-95% jump. 

Weekend: 49-54M

Edited March 9 by nguyenkhoi282

[Elessar]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

The Sat jump for Dune will be massive. We saw with Avatar 2 that the long runtime led to a bit muted Friday increases (because on Friday, most people still have to work, its only logical) while the Sat jumps and Sun holds were amazing. I expect a similar pattern for Dune going forward.

 

I'm banking on it.

[ThomasNicole]

Somewhat disappointing FRI for Dune, that said the same happened last FRI so let’s see how it goes today. But it’s time to imagine that maybe KFP4 is hurting it a bit. 
 

Still should drop below 50%, probably 44-46M depending on SAT. Should be very close to 200M by next weekend, +250M total looks good. 
 

Fantastic for Panda, and surprising considering it’s diminishing returns since the first movie. Maybe nostalgia is kicking in this time around.

Edited March 9 by ThomasNicole

[VanillaSkies]

14 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Is Dreamworks Animation looking at KFP4 as their first potential $200M+ DOM-blockbuster in 12 years since “Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted” back in 2012?

 

Considering there’s no other big animated film for a while until The Garfield Movie in May. So there’s nothing much else for the animation fans and families in over two months.

Possibly.

its got a lot going for it. Good word of mouth, rolling spring breaks all month long and then Easter long weekend to finish off the month. All that with very little direct competition. Couldn’t ask for a better calendar really. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

That's a fantastic result for Panda, and the opening weekend will be double what most, including I, expected. And no one had it on their radar, nor were they hyped for it. Those of you underestimating Ghostbusters 4 and Godzilla x Kong should keep this in mind going forward. You never know!

Dune 2's Friday wasn't as glorious as I wanted, which is an indication Panda 4 might be eating into it to an extent. Hopefully it scores a big increase during the rest of the weekend and at least gets to the mid-$40Ms range.

13 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Is Dreamworks Animation looking at KFP4 as their first potential $200M+ DOM-blockbuster in 12 years since “Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted” back in 2012?

 

Considering there’s no other big animated film for a while until The Garfield Movie in May. So there’s nothing much else for the animation fans and families in over two months.

That's honestly depressing, and further punctuates how far DreamWorks has fallen in the years since. The constant flops and shakeups and Comcast merger just sucked their soul out. And Comcast has been mostly neglecting them in favour of their golden boy. As much as the Panda 4 previews don't impress me at all, I hope this success motivates Comcast to finally start showing their stepchild some much-needed attention.

[TwoMisfits]

59 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Diversity demos for kung fu panda 4 

 

hispsnics/latinos 44%
 

White 22%
 

black 11%

 

Asian 18%
 

I did not know po was that popular with the Latinos, that’s awesome hahah. Bodes well for Latin America international numbers 

 

 

 

Yeah, I figured Asian would overindex...and it did.  But dang on the Latino number.  Normally it would be a percent or two above Caucasian for a family movie that draws evenly by US demos.  But this time, it's enormous.  

[TwoMisfits]

And I guess we now know - the free tickets really got the ball rolling for KFP2.  SoF is not the only movie who made early free tickets pay off into big weekend and total DOM...

[AniNate]

 

-

(-)

Migration

Universal

$220,000

+78%

-51%

1,507

$146

$124,451,060

78

 

Not a bad hold given the circumstances. Only about a 27% drop in PTA. Might have enough in the tank to reach $130mil

[Minnale101]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Yeah, I figured Asian would overindex...and it did.  But dang on the Latino number.  Normally it would be a percent or two above Caucasian for a family movie that draws evenly by US demos.  But this time, it's enormous.  

I know anime is gigantic in Latin America and Mexico 

 

they love animated movies 

 

a animated movie with anime fight scenes, I guess best of both worlds hahah 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Elessar said:

 

Pretty sure that's a typo, it's 13.2, right, RIGHT?! lol

Lol

[ZackM]

1 minute ago, leoh said:

Lol

You alright?

[leoh]

18 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

That's a fantastic result for Panda, and the opening weekend will be double what most, including I, expected. And no one had it on their radar, nor were they hyped for it. Those of you underestimating Ghostbusters 4 and Godzilla x Kong should keep this in mind going forward. You never know!

Dune 2's Friday wasn't as glorious as I wanted, which is an indication Panda 4 might be eating into it to an extent. Hopefully it scores a big increase during the rest of the weekend and at least gets to the mid-$40Ms range.

That's honestly depressing, and further punctuates how far DreamWorks has fallen in the years since. The constant flops and shakeups and Comcast merger just sucked their soul out. And Comcast has been mostly neglecting them in favour of their golden boy. As much as the Panda 4 previews don't impress me at all, I hope this success motivates Comcast to finally start showing their stepchild some much-needed attention.

agreed (The first part only)

Edited March 9 by leoh

[Firepower]

Sad results all around.