Weekend Numbers | estimates | 15.01M CHALLENGERS | 7.73M UNSUNG HERO | 7.22M GODZILLA×KONG: TNE

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

 

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

If someone wants great writing, great characters and adult storytelling they turn to TV and miniseries today. The theatrical space was essentially overstuffed with familiar franchise IP that followed a hero’s journey template, action and comedy mix for the entire 2010s and now launching a movie like Challengers to audiences just won’t do. 

 

Sad but true. The silver lining with streaming is that it has given documentaries unprecedented popularity and more intellectual storytelling, especially shows and miniseries, are enjoying great attention (well, many anyhoo) 

 

Honestly tho, this has been happening even before the OTT boom. HBO brought about a golden age of television and accidentally, Hollywood programmed people to expect great characters on tv and larger than life spectacle in cinemas for more than a decade now

 

1 hour ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

 

Okay but can we at least wait for the WW opening weekend numbers before declaring this a money loser? (Which I don't think it will be in the long run as it's got "Saltburn streaming breakout" written all over it.

[Bascafo]

Just now, Spidey Freak said:

 

 

 

Okay but can we at least wait for the WW opening weekend numbers before declaring this a money loser? (Which I don't think it will be in the long run as it's got "Saltburn streaming breakout" written all over it.

Also the movie has a lot of product placement and that of course helps the budget

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

I feel like the “cost of living” thing gets brought frequently but is there any evidence that has an effect on theaters? Inflation rate was higher during Barbenheimer more than it is now. The Great Recession didn’t seem to impact the 08 box office at all.

 

Inflation is cumulative.  So the rate now may be lower, but you're feeling all the pain of the increases from before plus still the lower rate now.  It hurts more and more as time goes on if wages don't keep up...and they haven't.  So, unless you get deflation or some extended period of time when wage increases exceed inflation, you don't escape the pain of what came before for a while.

 

Okay, smart stuff done for the day - time for movie box office.

[JimmyB]

I dont think something like The Fall Guy bombing changes anything but what will the excuses be?

 

During the strikes, when a lot of movies weren't opening well, a common excuse was the stars of the films can't promote the movie...i saw that excuse a lot for The Marvels.  The Fall Guy has had it's stars promoting the movie same with all releases this year. Can't use that excuse anymore.

 

@Porthos has an interesting comment in the tracking thread responding to the lack of 100m dollar openers and the strike being the cause.

 

Movies that got delayed because of the strike to 2024 Dune 2, Ghostbusters, Challengers have come out.  Kraven the Hunter keeps getting moved but do we expect much from that before the strikes.  Captain America Brave New World was supposed to come out May 2024, moved to July 2024 and moved to Feb 2025 but is going to have extensive reshoots for months.  So, was the delay because of the strikes or because it tested poorly and The Marvels bombing caused Disney to try and fix it.  Snow White was supposed to come out March 2024 and was delayed a year again was that movie even ready to release in 2024?  Deadpool was supposed to come out November 2024 and moved up.  

 

My point is, what movies that moved from 2023 because of strikes are missing or would have changed 2024 box office as of today?  I agree, starting with Deadpool it looks like we have some nice hits coming but some are going to disappoint. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Why did people expect Challengers to open much bigger again? Has Zendaya ever opened a non IP property very big? There are no other names tied to it. Tennis, especially men's tennis, hasn't been popular stateside for years too. OW DOM is fine.

[Mojoguy]

Poor summer of disappointing underperformers or flops from Fall Guy to whatever opens before Inside Out. 6 weeks of hell for theaters. This is what happens when you don't have an Uber blockbuster like Deadpool 3 opening on the first weekend of May. You need something big like that to bring people out to check up the smaller films.

[AJG]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Why did people expect Challengers to open much bigger again? Has Zendaya ever opened a non IP property very big? There are no other names tied to it. Tennis, especially men's tennis, hasn't been popular stateside for years too. OW DOM is fine.

 

The same thing happened with Civil War.

 

There's a disparity between the amount of coverage these films receive in the media and the actual audience willing to pay to watch them. I thought Challengers would hit $30m OW.

The Fall Guy will probably be the next movie to face this issue - but I think the Forums have prepared for that possibility better than we did for these last two films.

[filmlover]

My showing for Challengers yesterday afternoon only had about 10 people in total so I guess I can't say I'm surprised it's looking to play like a "one demo and nobody else" type of movie.

[JohnnyGossamer]

16 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

The same thing happened with Civil War.

 

There's a disparity between the amount of coverage these films receive in the media and the actual audience willing to pay to watch them. I thought Challengers would hit $30m OW.

The Fall Guy will probably be the next movie to face this issue - but I think the Forums have prepared for that possibility better than we did for these last two films.

Fall Guy could disappoint OW DOM but it is action movie with much more star power and cameos.

 

What's the issue with Civil War? Isn't it definitely gonna make money? Budget was only 50 or 60 for it, no? 

[Rebeccas]

8 hours ago, John Marston said:

“Cost of living” it’s not like every now is staying at home and doing nothing. They would go to the movies if the movies looked appealing 

There's also a million other things to do these days that aren't movies. You have to prioritize what you feel is more important when everything's more expensive. 

[Flopped]

The box office may be dead but you at least you don't necessarily need big box office to build a legendary career. Remember the endless and ruthless "Nicole Kidman is Box Office POISON" in the late 2000s? She had the last laugh. 

 

https://twitter.com/andysignore/status/1784563708871549178

[JonathanMB]

 

 

-38% weekend drop. Pretty solid considering it lost almost all its IMAX screens to Challengers.

[Krissykins]

Great hold for Civil War. Heading for $70m+

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

18 minutes ago, Flopped said:

The box office may be dead but you at least you don't necessarily need big box office to build a legendary career. Remember the endless and ruthless "Nicole Kidman is Box Office POISON" in the late 2000s? She had the last laugh. 

 

https://twitter.com/andysignore/status/1784563708871549178

TV helped her a lot, as it has with many older or middle aged actresses. 

[AniNate]

I know it's a weird comparison but CW's hold does I think spell hope for Challengers legs. They might not be completely mainstream movies but they both seem to have their legit support 

[Kon]

41 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I know it's a weird comparison but CW's hold does I think spell hope for Challengers legs. They might not be completely mainstream movies but they both seem to have their legit support 

I'm not sure if the situation between these two movies is comparable

 

Both movies have positive reviews, but I feel Civil War has a lot more interest from general audience than Challengers. 

Edited April 28 by Kon

[titanic2187]

41 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I know it's a weird comparison but CW's hold does I think spell hope for Challengers legs. They might not be completely mainstream movies but they both seem to have their legit support 

Unless Challengers start pulling ABY's leg, I don't think any good leg can result in meaningful absolute number. The final range should be around 45-55m. Pretty boring finish if you ask me. 

[Tina]

46 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I know it's a weird comparison but CW's hold does I think spell hope for Challengers legs. They might not be completely mainstream movies but they both seem to have their legit support 

 I can see this happening if the WOM is very very good. Also the target audience needs to really be interested. I’m part of the target audience ( 20’s, Zendaya fan, Female) and I’ve seen this being discussed positively on my TikTok feeds, similar to Anyone But You but in a lesser scale. I’m cautiously optimistic.