What will be the next non-Avatar $1B+ OS movie?

[HummingLemon496]

Pretty simple question. I included non-Avatar as a qualifier because that's the most obvious choice and it's basically locked for $1B OS.  

 

Here are some candidates

 

Zootopia 2 - Zootopia 1 and Inside Out 1 did pretty similar numbers OS-China (447M for Zootopia vs 487M for Inside Out). Inside Out is going to do ~2.05x its predecessor's OS-China gross. The same increase for Zootopia would be $916M. Then, all it would need is $84M in China, which seems doable. The original did $236M in China and, yes, although Hollywood sequels have been dropping hard in China, the increase everywhere else should offset this. 

 

Avengers: Doomsday - Pretty self explanatory? It's an Avengers movie and fucking Iron Man is back

 

Shrek 5 - @Relevation who called the Mario, Barbie, Inside Out 2 mega hits as well as The Flash megabomb is predicting this to be huge. I think $1B+ OS might happen. Nostalgia for Shrek is HUGE and the hype will absolutely be there. 

[WorkingonaName]

Shrek 5, Maybe Joker if it overperforms.

[Selma]

Shrek 5 

[Selma]

I dont get the zootopia billion overseas 

IS it well known in non asian markets how well it did in Europe and latam 

I think only Frozen 4 , avengers sequels and maybe shrek 5 have a chance

[HummingLemon496]

5 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

Shrek 5, Maybe Joker if it overperforms.

If Joker makes $1B+ OS I'll consider it more impressive than when Relevation predicted sub-$300M for Flash a year ish in advance

[Belakor]

Joker 2 is going to have weak legs because most of the time audiences reject musicals so I'm pretty sure it's going to be Shrek 5

[Durden]

Avengers: Doomsday. 1.4B

[Asyulus]

Could go either way.

 

Zootopia 2 is a wildcard. Whether it increases massively like it did with Inside Out 2 is to be foreseen. Avengers: Doomsday has a 50% chance of getting delayed next year since the script isn’t finished yet (if it already began) + higher and more anticipated scale means longer filming period + more diverse and heavier cast. Shrek 5 is also a wildcard given that a Shrek film still yet has to accomplish billion dollars worldwide let alone overseas.

[Selma]

5 hours ago, Asyulus said:

Could go either way.

 

Zootopia 2 is a wildcard. Whether it increases massively like it did with Inside Out 2 is to be foreseen. Avengers: Doomsday has a 50% chance of getting delayed next year since the script isn’t finished yet (if it already began) + higher and more anticipated scale means longer filming period + more diverse and heavier cast. Shrek 5 is also a wildcard given that a Shrek film still yet has to accomplish billion dollars worldwide let alone overseas.

Frozen 4 has a chance especially if Korea increases it has been increasing with animated movies plus latam and Europe 

[dudalb]

The real question for the obvious candiates is how good are they going to be?

SHrek 5 for instance, is going to have to get the Mojo back after a couple of mediocre films to really take off. And that is not all that easy to do. Yes, it can be done to revive a frachise....there are signs that Warners has pulled it off with Beetlejuice 2...but there are no guarantees.

Same goes for most of the usual suspects here. THye have to be really good. Name value alone will not get you above the Billion dollar mark.

I also am tempted to say it might be a movie that none of us are even thinking of.

[DAJK]

Probably Avengers or one of the Frozen sequels. I could also see Shrek potentially doing it too. Don’t see Zootopia or Joker getting there, 700 or so for the former, 500-600 for the latter.

[dudalb]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Probably Avengers or one of the Frozen sequels. I could also see Shrek potentially doing it too. Don’t see Zootopia or Joker getting there, 700 or so for the former, 500-600 for the latter.

Frozen is a bit like shrek, last film in the series though very sucessful was a bit underhwelming. They will have to up their game to reach the Billion mark.

[Liiviig 1998]

Frozen 2 had all the hype and made 975m with 100m+ in Japan ,china and 95m+ in SK.  Maybe something happens in next 3 yrs but don't think it's getting those numbers in these 3 markets alone.

Frozen 2  numbers weren't exceptional in LATM either.

 

800-900M

 

 

 

[miketheavenger]

Outside of Avatar 3, I don't really see anything doing it in 2025 except MAYBE Zootopia 2. But I feel it's going to top out at 900m maximum.

 

In 2026 I think Avengers: Doomsday is pretty much a lock for 1B OS. Shrek 5 if it's really good/great could also do it.

 

Mario 2 and Spider-Man 4 (if it releases in 2026) have outside chances IMO, everything else more than likely won't do it.

[Firepower]

On 8/27/2024 at 12:56 AM, Belakor said:

Joker 2 is going to have weak legs because most of the time audiences reject musicals

What?

Wonka (2023) - $632,302,312

La La Land (2016) - $471,991,358

The Greatest Showman (2017) - $459,117,202

[Arlborn]

Coming from a country (Brazil) where people went crazy for Inside Out 2 and it ended with 80M (second OS market for it just behind Mexico's 102M!!), I just don't see the same nostalgia-fueled hype for Zootopia.

 

Inside Out was always present in one way or another in some people's conversations over the years, meanwhile I've never seen anyone even mention Zootopia outside of my family. I could be wrong though, the first trailer will be the real gauge.

 

With that said, Shrek Forever After actually did real well here back in 2010 with 40M, one of its top OS markets, and I can assure you that people are already talking about Shrek 5 and it will explode here as well.

 

Joker should do well, but unless people go ga ga for the lady singing, I just don't see it increasing much.

 

Avengers will of course do great here too, and Frozen 3 needs a big "Let it Go" type of hook to have a chance to get even close to Inside Out 2.

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2024 by Arlborn