Weekend Numbers | 09.27 - 09.29, 2024 | Thursday Previews | 1.95M THE WILD ROBOT | 0.77M MEGALOPOLIS

[AniNate]

I still think this was probably the best date wild robot could hope for if it wanted to release this year and be an awards player. Legs do matter as has been demonstrated by prior animated movies quite a bit. And it is still possible to achieve 4x-5x with a fall release, especially with no new competition. I do still think TF should've been in August and it failed to make that move at its own peril.

 

Perhaps DreamWorks though just didn't have the kind of 200m ambitions I did and that's why they aimed to keep the budget down. 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by AniNate

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

I think for it to only hit mid-20s would require a historically bad IM for an animated movie without early access screenings. Not saying I couldn’t see it but that would be drastically weak.

 

that said, I do think there’s something to be said about Transformers and Wild Robot (hell, throw Beetlejuice in there too) cannibalizing each other. It’s been said before, but TFO genuinely had an awful release date.

 

I do think we have to prepare for similar cases happening to Moana/Wicked and Sonic/Mufasa, even if the impact of the holidays will ultimately lessen the blow. Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 feel like rare exceptions, but even then IO2 hit most of its earnings before DM4 dropped.

 

just…fuck, at least make it to 30m. Most Soul Crushing Run is gonna be a crowded enough field as is.

Not to mention in the case of IO2 and DM4, there was a three week gap. For some reason, studios want to plant their family films right next to each other by a week at most or far away periods instead of spreading out. Think both TWR and TFO do better if not right next to each other.

[ChipDerby]

10 hours ago, The Wild Eric said:

You know 10 years ago, this would have opened to like 55 or 60M just off these stellar reviews and make like 250M or something. Now, Charlie’s data is saying it will barely get to 30M like  Elemental. And like Elemental and Migration, Wild Robot will only get to 140M or whatever because it was lucky to have zero competition. Pixar’s Elio will probably have a similar 30/150 fate next summer.

 

I guess it could be a lot worse, but the future for non-NTC animation is looking pretty darn rough my dudes.

 

Quoting this to laugh at it later just fyi

[AniNate]

This is essentially looking to have an opening similar to the opening holiday week of Puss 2's release. That is more or less the audience interest Dreamworks has at their point with their new (or forgotten) IP. Puss went on to have a 4.7x multiplier off that week.

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by AniNate

[CheeseWizard]

2 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Quoting this to laugh at it later just fyi

Why, you think it’s gonna do a lot more than 30?

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Quoting this to laugh at it later just fyi

 

2 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Why, you think it’s gonna do a lot more than 30?

Yeah I'm also curious about in what context ChipDerby finds this laughable.

[vale9001]

Well if joker really makes around 50M at least here It's gonna be a very entertaining week after 2 months of boredom 😅

[dudalb]

Geeks/Nerds wildly overestimate the opening numbers for a Geek'Nerd niche film. SOP around here.

Meanwhile Meglopolis crashes and burns bigtime.

[dudalb]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

Yeah I'm also curious about in what context ChipDerby finds this laughable.

Ithink someone thinks there is a vast hidden number of geeks who will turn out for Wild Robot.

[ZeroHour]

15 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Ithink someone thinks there is a vast hidden number of geeks who will turn out for Wild Robot.

The Wild Robot is not a geek/nerd film unless you mean animation geeks who are a pretty niche group. This is a family movie based on a kids book. 

[The Wild Eric]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont see this hitting 30m. Looking at even big markets, sales for saturday look just meh. I am thinking mid 20s OW at this point. With this release date even 100m is a question at this point. I am not convinced its going to do well overseas as well. 

Oh, did I say the future for non-NTC animation is rough? Never mind. It's fucking bleak. If reviews as incredible as this still aren't enough for today's braindead audiences too piss-scared to see anything but nostalgia slop, then nothing is going to do well.

[dudalb]

13 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

The Wild Robot is not a geek/nerd film unless you mean animation geeks who are a pretty niche group. This is a family movie based on a kids book. 

Maybe, but it was sure as hell  being "stanned" here by a lot more then just anamation geeks.

Anyway, it was wildly overestimated.

 I am saying nothing about it virtues as a movie. which from the reviews are considerable; but then there is long history of reall good films bombing at the box office....and of bad films that are big hits.

[YM!]

https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-megalopolis-the-wild-robot-1236101618/

 

$11.3M OD for TWR including previews. We panicked for nothing.

Edited 53 minutes ago by YM!

[The Wild Eric]

18 minutes ago, The Wild Eric said:

Oh, did I say the future for non-NTC animation is rough? Never mind. It's fucking bleak. If reviews as incredible as this still aren't enough for today's braindead audiences too piss-scared to see anything but nostalgia slop, then nothing is going to do well.

Crisis averted. Still convinced it would have done around 55M ten years ago. 45M at worst. But I'll take 35M I guess.

[WebSurfer]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-megalopolis-the-wild-robot-1236101618/

 

$11.3M OD for TWR including previews. We panicked for nothing.

Edited 50 minutes ago by WebSurfer

[CJohn]

I was hoping for 40M+ OW but I will take 35M+. 

 

Someone at Paramount needs to answer for putting IF and TFOne just before direct competition when both could have been released 1 month before and get weeks of no competition. 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, The Wild Eric said:

Crisis averted. Still convinced it would have done around 55M ten years ago. 45M at worst. But I'll take 35M I guess.

I think it'd have opened to 40M without the hurricane. Maybe near 50M if they chose October 11th or if Transformers moved to August.

[The Wild Eric]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

I was hoping for 40M+ OW but I will take 35M+. 

 

Someone at Paramount needs to answer for putting IF and TFOne just before direct competition when both could have been released 1 month before and get weeks of no competition. 

I mean IF I understand, because it was coming out a week before Memorial Day and closer to summer weekdays. It's not like Garfield was that big a threat anyways. But yeah, Transformers should have dropped mid-August IMO

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, The Wild Eric said:

Crisis averted. Still convinced it would have done around 55M ten years ago. 45M at worst. But I'll take 35M I guess.

I don't think this is wrong. Just have to look at the OW of Monsters vs Aliens ($59m), Big Hero 6 ($56m) or numerous Pixar originals. Even SLOP.

[dudalb]

Not sure making it to 35 Million instead of 30 Million will make much difference to the basic narrative: a non Disney Established Franchise animated film gets a rave receopton but does not attract a big audience. It is sad that a mediocre effort like DM4 makes hundrd of Millions, and this will be lucky to break even.