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The New Mutants | August 28, 2020 | Rumors are saying it released, but no one we know saw it

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2 hours ago, dudalb said:

Disney was waiting to see how Dark Phoenix did before commiting. They have seen, and the chances they will sink any large amount of money into a reshoot for NM are very low.

You said that Dark Phoenix bombed because the movie was not good. Disney is thinking about the possibility of doing reshoots to improve NM and you're suggesting they shouldn't do it? WTF. Isn't better to release a better movie? There's an audience for it.

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11 minutes ago, Litio said:

You said that Dark Phoenix bombed because the movie was not good. Disney is thinking about the possibility of doing reshoots to improve NM and you're suggesting they shouldn't do it? WTF. Isn't better to release a better movie? There's an audience for it.

There's little point to reshoots if it's going to get Cloverfield Paradoxed onto D+. What leads you to think a larger audience awaits New Mutants in theaters than Dark Phoenix drew in? And again, it bears repeating, no one from Disney has mentioned anything about reshoots. Not Feige. Not Iger. Not Horn. Only person talking reshoots is Kinberg, who has been talking about the reshoots since last spring.

 

At this point it's about cutting your losses. It's easier when those losses are from a now-defunct studio you just absorbed.

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39 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

There's little point to reshoots if it's going to get Cloverfield Paradoxed onto D+. What leads you to think a larger audience awaits New Mutants in theaters than Dark Phoenix drew in? And again, it bears repeating, no one from Disney has mentioned anything about reshoots. Not Feige. Not Iger. Not Horn. Only person talking reshoots is Kinberg, who has been talking about the reshoots since last spring.

 

At this point it's about cutting your losses. It's easier when those losses are from a now-defunct studio you just absorbed.

This.

And I suspect Kinberg creditbility at Disney after what happened with Dark Phoenix is about zero.

56 minutes ago, Litio said:

You said that Dark Phoenix bombed because the movie was not good. Disney is thinking about the possibility of doing reshoots to improve NM and you're suggesting they shouldn't do it? WTF. Isn't better to release a better movie? There's an audience for it.

Ever consider that NM is such a total mess that it's impossible to save without reshooting pretty much the entire movie, which would cost so much that you might as well start from scratch.

I really think you don't know much about the film business. Or you insist on seeing everything concerning the X Men franchise through rose colored  glasses.

 

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33 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

There's little point to reshoots if it's going to get Cloverfield Paradoxed onto D+. What leads you to think a larger audience awaits New Mutants in theaters than Dark Phoenix drew in? And again, it bears repeating, no one from Disney has mentioned anything about reshoots. Not Feige. Not Iger. Not Horn. Only person talking reshoots is Kinberg, who has been talking about the reshoots since last spring.

 

At this point it's about cutting your losses. It's easier when those losses are from a now-defunct studio you just absorbed.

Dark Phoenix is going to do about $300m WW with weak reception from audience. A well received New Mutants movie could to do that or even more. In youtube, New Mutants has more trailer views than Dark Phoenix. I'm not saying it will be bigger because of... trailer views, but I mean there's a lot of curiosity about this movie. Horror movies has a audience and superheroes movies too. A well received NM movie can bring enough people to do $300m+ WW.

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8 minutes ago, Litio said:

Dark Phoenix is going to do about $300m WW with weak reception from audience. A well received New Mutants movie could to do that or even more. In youtube, New Mutants has more trailer views than Dark Phoenix. I'm not saying it will be bigger because of... trailer views, but I mean there's a lot of curiosity about this movie. Horror movies has a audience and superheroes movies too. A well received NM movie can bring enough people to do $300m+ WW.

1: “A well received New Mutants movie”. If FOX thinks half the film needs to be reshot, why do you think it’s assured to be well received? What was the last film delayed for two years so half could be reshot, that was well received? This logic is more wishful thinking than anything concrete. And wishful thinking isn’t enough to invest in reshooting half a film.

 

2: “New Mutants has more trailer views than Dark Phoenix”. NM has tallied 10.5m views in the 20 months since it came out. The DP trailer from 3 months ago has 11m views and the trailer from a month and a half ago has 9.3m views. So no, New Mutants does NOT have more viewership on YouTube.  By the metrics I just listed, interest in NM is lower than DP.

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6 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

1: “A well received New Mutants movie”. If FOX thinks half the film needs to be reshot, why do you think it’s assured to be well received? What was the last film delayed for two years so half could be reshot, that was well received? This logic is more wishful thinking than anything concrete. And wishful thinking isn’t enough to invest in reshooting half a film.

 

2: “New Mutants has more trailer views than Dark Phoenix”. NM has tallied 10.5m views in the 20 months since it came out. The DP trailer from 3 months ago has 11m views and the trailer from a month and a half ago has 9.3m views. So no, New Mutants does NOT have more viewership on YouTube.  By the metrics I just listed, interest in NM is lower than DP.

1. Movie looks very cheap. There's only 1 location, no big stars and cheap visual effects from what I've seen from trailer. Disney could reshoot the same movie 3x and prob budget would keep under $100m.

 

2. 39m of views in this one:

 

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That is two studios now who pretty much have regarded New Mutants as heavily damaged goods that might well be beyond saving.

Disney threw huge amounts of money in an almost total reshoot of "Solo" and it did not turn out well for them;all they did was greatly increase their losses. I think they are unlikely to try that again with "New Mutants' Partuclary since not nearly as much is at stake with NM as was at stake with "Solo". That's the irony the more expensive a film is the more likely a studio is willing to risk money in trying to save it;the less a film costs, the more likely a studio is to refuse to spend another nickel on trying to save it, and, if they have to release it, spend a minimum amount on the release.

I repeat, good movies do not spend as much time rotting on the shelves as NM has.

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6 minutes ago, Litio said:

1. Movie looks very cheap. There's only 1 location, no big stars and cheap visual effects from what I've seen from trailer. Disney could reshoot the same movie 3x and prob budget would keep under $100m.

 

2. 39m of views in this one:

 

If Fox refused to pull the trigger on reshoots for NM, why would Disney when DP just bombed, and by all accounts NM is a worse mess then DP was?

What part of "Maybe it's impossible to save" don't you understand?

You really do have no idea of the realities of the film business.

And you continue to ignore that just releasing and marketing a film is going to cost as much as NM cost to make.

 

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7 minutes ago, Litio said:

1. Movie looks very cheap. There's only 1 location, no big stars and cheap visual effects from what I've seen from trailer. Disney could reshoot the same movie 3x and prob budget would keep under $100m.

 

2. 39m of views in this one

 

 

2: Well that is interesting. For my metrics I stuck to the official Fox YT channel, as that’s the only outlet for objectively comparable numbers. If you’re really interested I can add up the 10 most watched trailer videos for each of DP and NM but I think that’s excessive.

 

I’ll add this, that’s the most popular video on that channel with 39m hits. Second most popular vid was trailer to Red Sparrow with 37m hits. Red Sparrow earned just 46m domestic and 151m global. Let’s say the extra 2 million trailer views brings the global tally up to 160m. Is that worth Disney’s time and efforts?

 

The math behind this is very flawed, the point is YouTube hits doesn’t mean success. Detective Pilachu’s trailer numbers led many to think it was going be a break out hit. Nope.

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9 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

 

2: Well that is interesting. For my metrics I stuck to the official Fox YT channel, as that’s the only outlet for objectively comparable numbers. If you’re really interested I can add up the 10 most watched trailer videos for each of DP and NM but I think that’s excessive.

 

I’ll add this, that’s the most popular video on that channel with 39m hits. Second most popular vid was trailer to Red Sparrow with 37m hits. Red Sparrow earned just 46m domestic and 151m global. Let’s say the extra 2 million trailer views brings the global tally up to 160m. Is that worth Disney’s time and efforts?

 

The math behind this is very flawed, the point is YouTube hits doesn’t mean success. Detective Pilachu’s trailer numbers led many to think it was going be a break out hit. Nope.

IMHO You Tube views are a crappy indicator of how a movie does at the box office.

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29 minutes ago, dudalb said:
41 minutes ago, dudalb said:

That is two studios now who pretty much have regarded New Mutants as heavily damaged goods that might well be beyond saving.

Disney threw huge amounts of money in an almost total reshoot of "Solo" and it did not turn out well for them;all they did was greatly increase their losses. I think they are unlikely to try that again with "New Mutants' Partuclary since not nearly as much is at stake with NM as was at stake with "Solo". That's the irony the more expensive a film is the more likely a studio is willing to risk money in trying to save it;the less a film costs, the more likely a studio is to refuse to spend another nickel on trying to save it, and, if they have to release it, spend a minimum amount on the release.

I repeat, good movies do not spend as much time rotting on the shelves as NM has.

If Fox refused to pull the trigger on reshoots for NM, why would Disney when DP just bombed, and by all accounts NM is a worse mess then DP was?

What part of "Maybe it's impossible to save" don't you understand?

You really do have no idea of the realities of the film business.

And you continue to ignore that just releasing and marketing a film is going to cost as much as NM cost to make.

 

Maybe Disney would reshoot New Mutants to prevent it from becoming a bomb like DP?
Like I said before, New Mutants is not a kind of expensive movie. It's not fair to compare it to a movie like Solo. 

26 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

 

2: Well that is interesting. For my metrics I stuck to the official Fox YT channel, as that’s the only outlet for objectively comparable numbers. If you’re really interested I can add up the 10 most watched trailer videos for each of DP and NM but I think that’s excessive.

 

I’ll add this, that’s the most popular video on that channel with 39m hits. Second most popular vid was trailer to Red Sparrow with 37m hits. Red Sparrow earned just 46m domestic and 151m global. Let’s say the extra 2 million trailer views brings the global tally up to 160m. Is that worth Disney’s time and efforts?

 

The math behind this is very flawed, the point is YouTube hits doesn’t mean success. Detective Pilachu’s trailer numbers led many to think it was going be a break out hit. Nope.

Wasn't I clear when I said: "I'm not saying it will be bigger because of... trailer views, but I mean there's a lot of curiosity about this movie"? I mean there's big potential for NM.... just like there was bigger potential for Red Sparrow.

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28 minutes ago, Litio said:

Maybe Disney would reshoot New Mutants to prevent it from becoming a bomb like DP?
Like I said before, New Mutants is not a kind of expensive movie. It's not fair to compare it to a movie like Solo. 

Wasn't I clear when I said: "I'm not saying it will be bigger because of... trailer views, but I mean there's a lot of curiosity about this movie"? I mean there's big potential for NM.... just like there was bigger potential for Red Sparrow.

 

"Potential" is a dime a dozen. Every movie has potential. Most movies fail to reach their potential. At this point, it's all about cost-benefit. Disney needs cold, hard numbers that show the extra investment, both in production, marketing, and distribution, is worth the chance the film reaches it's "potential". Dark Phoenix's numbers were a stab in the opposite direction. "Potential" doesn't change that. Again I'm not saying Disney will bury this underground. It has a lot of "potential" as a streaming film on D+. Consider it New Mutants getting a head start on the inevitable death of the cinema experience.

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I think somebody is in denial about what Two studios think about this particular version of The New Mutants.

I also think this somebody does not understand how expensive it is to just release and market a film,even at a minimum level. Guaranteed, a release on NM would cost more then the production costs.

If Disney thinks it's a mess of a film...like Fox apparently did (good movies do not sit on the shelf for two years) with a low chance of succeeding at the box office, why should they throw good money away after bad?

Outside of a contractual obligation to release the movie in theaters(that story keeps popping up and is withink the realm of possibility), I can't think of a single reason why Disney should give it a theatrical run if they think it has little chance of succeeding at the box office.

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6 hours ago, Litio said:

1. Movie looks very cheap. There's only 1 location, no big stars and cheap visual effects from what I've seen from trailer. Disney could reshoot the same movie 3x and prob budget would keep under $100m.

 

2. 39m of views in this one:

 

Let's see...

 

If I had to put $50 million in reshoots and advertising into a garbage can I inherited from someone else...

...or I could take that same $50 million and put it towards buying a more things that I wanted to spend it on anyways...

...like a future new thingie that will possibly bring me in $1 billion...

 

Such a difficult decision.

Which one should I make.

I don't know what to to do.

Edited by I Am
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5 hours ago, Litio said:

Maybe Disney would reshoot New Mutants to prevent it from becoming a bomb like DP

Like how "Dark Phoenix" - already a $150 million mess - was reshot...............................................................

 

..................................................and still bombed.

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I mean.. 

1. sold it to streaming = probably no loss at all. 

2. theater release = need 250m in boxoffice to break even.

3. re shoot and theater release = need +300m in boxoffice to break even.

 

DP is expected to do 300m 'at best' right now with all those years of x men brand and famous character/actors..

of course there're always possibility but after DP's performance.. that's like lottery.

 

and NM having good test screening is BS. seriosuly.. lol

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6 hours ago, I Am said:

Let's see...

 

If I had to put $50 million in reshoots and advertising into a garbage can I inherited from someone else...

...or I could take that same $50 million and put it towards buying a more things that I wanted to spend it on anyways...

...like a future new thingie that will possibly bring me in $1 billion...

 

Such a difficult decision.

Which one should I make.

I don't know what to to do.

I was just making an assumption if Disney decided to reshoot NM. They really don't need it if they don't want to.
A mid budgeted movie doesn't have to make $ 1bi to be considered a success and well ... Disney spent $ 170m doing Dumbo.

5 hours ago, imbruglia said:

I mean.. 

1. sold it to streaming = probably no loss at all. 

2. theater release = need 250m in boxoffice to break even.

3. re shoot and theater release = need +300m in boxoffice to break even.

 

DP is expected to do 300m 'at best' right now with all those years of x men brand and famous character/actors..

of course there're always possibility but after DP's performance.. that's like lottery.

 

and NM having good test screening is BS. seriosuly.. lol

How did you get to that number?
The only costs that Disney would have with this movie, releasing it in the theaters (as it is) would be the marketing and release costs. Do you know how much is spent worldwide to release and marketing small films?
According to the deadline:
Unfriended ($ 44m)
Insidious 3 ($ 44m)
The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($ 54m)
Paper Towns ($ 51.50m)


And those are the total approximate costs. These expenses increase after the film is released according to reception / success. Films don't significantly increase initial release costs if the film doesn't do as expected.

 

People told me that Dark Phoenix would have the same FF 2015 quality level and it didn't. Seriously, if New Mutants is so garbage, horrible, unsaveable, why didn't Disney simply put it on Hulu? If the film is unsaveable, why are they still wondering what to do with it? If Disney is forced to release this "unsaveable piece of crap" in theaters, why haven't they released it on a limited theatrical run with little or no marketing?

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