The New Mutants | August 28, 2020 | Rumors are saying it released, but no one we know saw it

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

IT did way better than most expected. It was an absolute breakout proving R rated horror movies can be blockbusters. Also Split and Get Out wer no slouches. This'll will attract the horror fans, CBM fans and teens given the YA movie vibes. I know $300M isn't happening but this can surprise.

IT was based on one of the most popular horror books of all time with a prior very popular mini series. 

 

Split & Get Out - one benefited from a rejuvenate popular director + good reviews and the other from great critical reviews.  Still, WW they did $278 & 253m.

 

This trailer except for the Marvel logo is 100% horror and the CBM property is niche so unless we see more super powered heroics in other trailers I don't think it's going to garner much of the CBM audience.

 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

IT was based on one of the most popular horror books of all time with a prior very popular mini series. 

But until like the last few weeks to release did anyone besides @The Pumpkin Spice Panda and maybe @That One Guy (if my memory is right), think that $200M+ DOM was possible?

[That One Girl]

Just now, YourMother said:

But until like the last few weeks to release did anyone besides @The Pumpkin Spice Panda and maybe @That One Guy (if my memory is right), think that $200M+ DOM was possible?

 

A lot of people did believe it was possible, not just us.

 

I think I was predicting it to do close to 300M at one point but never went over the mark.  If only I had more balls

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

But until like the last few weeks to release did anyone besides @The Pumpkin Spice Panda and maybe @That One Guy (if my memory is right), think that $200M+ DOM was possible?

You're underselling it, my predict was over 300m!

 

But I don't think this will hit 200m, rn.  I'll see how the trailer buzz picks up.  It just seems like a generic horror movie with the Marvel logo slapped on it.

[DAR]

Finally saw the trailer not bad.  Got a little bit of a Legion vibe

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, The Pumpkin Spice Panda said:

You're underselling it, my predict was over 300m!

 

But I don't think this will hit 200m, rn.  I'll see how the trailer buzz picks up.  It just seems like a generic horror movie with the Marvel logo slapped on it.

Main YT Fox Trailer - 790,987 views  17k likes/ 2k dislikes

 

Not super heroic

 

 

 

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Main YT Fox Trailer - 790,987 views  17k likes/ 2k dislikes

 

Not super heroic

 

 

 

That's pretty poor, it might cap around 10m views by release.  That's bad for a comic book film.

 

Trailer Views aren't everything, and you can't create a predictive model based off of them, but they're major indicators of interest in a film.

 

I applaud Fox for trying to be different with their superhero films, but this one doesn't look like it'll strike the same kind of chord as Logan and Deadpool.  Those were trope breaking, this looks like its following generic tropes by the beat.

[RobinHood26]

Yo this isn't supposed to be  the Avengers or a big DC movie, thats the Xmen. The last Xmen movie only made 165 domestic and cost 185m

 

 

You guys are comparing this to Aquaman and shit, thats not fair,  the budget of this and style is not going for that if this does like 115 - 130 thats a huge hit. I don't think Fox is expecting this to do more than that.

 

This open to 40 - 50 thats a huge HIT. They could almost hit that just on the "big budget horror" aspect if you look at the last 12 months of the genre. There goal is too get some comic book fans but also get that big horror conjuring type crowd. Theres a lot of butts in seats they could get. This isn't a internet breaker type of film, nor is it supposed to be. 

 

 

They have a low budget Super hero team - New Mutant.  

 

A mid budget one - Deadpool

 

And a Mega budget one - Xmen. 

 

Edited October 13, 2017 by Jay Hollywood

[John Marston]

main problem with the trailer is that it is kind of in your face about the horror aspect, throwing a bunch of jump scares and creepy masked guys and screaming girls. It's like a parody almost. Still, it looks intriguing enough

[The Panda]

On an extra note about trailer views, they are worth watching. 

 

Some general rules of thumb I've found (it's one of the reasons I thought movies like IT and the Revenant would break out as much as they did)

 

1. If the movie isn't a sequel/comic book movie and it's garnering a lot of views take notice of it.  A trailer like IT won't garner the consistent high views like it did if the interest wasn't there.

 

2. Comic Book films tend to always have inflated views, so it's hard to tell for sure breakouts from them.  It's more of an issue if a comic book film isn't getting high trailer views.

 

3. Pay attention if there's another reason a film might have a high view count, and see if there's a drop off with future trailers.  Sometimes a trailer is featured, or looped due to music (Sing had 100m+ on YouTube cause of that)

 

4. If a franchise film isn't breaking past around 15m views there might end up being an issue.  Happened with Apes, trailers views were terribly low.

 

5. Fanboy centric movies are going to have inflated viewcounts.  So if something like The Revenant or La La Land is hitting around 15m views, then there's definitely interest in the film.  Compare that to Blade Runner, inflated views due to a strong fan base 

 

6. Comedies and dramas don't necessarily rely as much on viewcounts.  Same for WoM horror hits like Get Out.  So if a movie turns out to be really good, especially in a barren market, trailer views from months prior might not matter because hype can build up within the week of release.

[The Panda]

16 minutes ago, John Marston said:

main problem with the trailer is that it is kind of in your face about the horror aspect, throwing a bunch of jump scares and creepy masked guys and screaming girls. It's like a parody almost. Still, it looks intriguing enough

 

The biggest problem is it's a horror tone but it's not scary at all, not even creepy.

[ban1o]

lmao at who they cast as Cecilia Reyes. Typical Fox 

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, The Pumpkin Spice Panda said:

 

The biggest problem is it's a horror tone but it's not scary at all, not even creepy.

For the box office that could be good, Get Out/Split were not particularly scary either, but had some creepiness. Happy death day didn't look to be scary at all either from the marketing.

 

IT was not much scary but was really jumpy.

[Goffe]

I'm thinking 20/60m right now. Unless TNM is great and refreshing (ie not what the teaser hinted), I would say those numbers are nice enough for a 10-30 (?) million-budgeted film.

[The Panda]

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

For the box office that could be good, Get Out/Split were not particularly scary either, but had some creepiness. Happy death day didn't look to be scary at all either from the marketing.

 

IT was not much scary but was really jumpy.

They still had creepy trailers to an extent.  It's too early to say what this movie can or can't do, but I have a hard time seeing it do much more than Apocalypse numbers (if even, under 100m is a good probability).

[AJG]

57 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Main YT Fox Trailer - 790,987 views  17k likes/ 2k dislikes

 

Not super heroic

 

 

 

 

I feel like Stranger Things kinda took some attention away.

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

IT was based on one of the most popular horror books of all time with a prior very popular mini series. 

 

Split & Get Out - one benefited from a rejuvenate popular director + good reviews and the other from great critical reviews.  Still, WW they did $278 & 253m.

 

This trailer except for the Marvel logo is 100% horror and the CBM property is niche so unless we see more super powered heroics in other trailers I don't think it's going to garner much of the CBM audience.

 

Well, I tend to dislike horror movies in general(I think I only ever watched 2 of them at a movie theater) but I'll still be there for this one, so count me as someone they've garnered from the CBM audience.

[shayhiri]

That's the shittiest shit the Shay has seen in a while. I still can't believe my eyes.

 

At least Trank's FF looked like it could be a good movie in the trailers - this here looks like it can't be anything but the shittiest shit.

 

You know how the Superhero era will die - just like this.

[AJG]

1 minute ago, shayhiri said:

That's the shittiest shit the Shay has seen in a while. I still can't believe my eyes.

 

At least Trank's FF looked like it could be a good movie in the trailers - this here looks like it can't be anything but the shittiest shit.

 

You know how the Superhero era will die - just like this.

 

THE ONLY OPINION THAT MATTERS!!!

[NoobSaibot]

Alright. I admit that I was so wrong about this. It has my attention now, at least.

 

But with a synopsis like

"Horny teenagers trying to survive a haunted house"

 

It's hard not to have low expectations for it.