MOANA II | 184.2M overseas | 423.6M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

MOANA [2016] - 394.6M

Edited 18 hours ago by kayumanggi

[Flip]

400m. Should have a big opening (for an animated movie), but WOM shouldn't be good considering it's a few episodes of a TV series meant for Disney+

[Relevation]

MOANA [2016] - $394.6M
FROZEN 2 [2019] - $976.3M

[HummingLemon496]

I'm your only follower so I get to claim the first post on this thread (other than you)

[HummingLemon496]

Good reception? $1B+ OS

Mid reception? $775M+ OS

 

@Thanos Legion

Edited November 24 by HummingLemon496

[Thanos Legion]

Yeah maybe like 800 sounds the right ballpark to me

[AnthonyJPHer]

I’m thinking 820m. Possibly close to 850m but I’m thinking around 820-850m range.

 

if reception is REALLY poor? Like so badly it’s Joker 2 level bad (which is really unlikely), then 500m OS. I really don’t see this dropping below 500m OS

[Purple Minion]

Deadline's forecast: Moana 2 is looking to make $100M+ overseas and anywhere from $125M-$135M over its five day-domestic Thanksgiving Day stretch.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Deadline's forecast: Moana 2 is looking to make $100M+ overseas and anywhere from $125M-$135M over its five day-domestic Thanksgiving Day stretch.

Yeah I was mislead by the $225m number. Thought they meant domestic only which would have been insane 

[Relevation]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

Yeah I was mislead by the $225m number. Thought they meant domestic only which would have been insane 

Ok but it is gonna do $225M domestically, and probably about matches that OS for something like a $415-450M global launch I’d think 

 

$225M global is a crazy lowball 

[Flip]

650-690m, not sure how it could make 700m+ with mid reception, especially considering presales are nothing special (unlike IO2)

[keysersoze123]

50 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Ok but it is gonna do $225M domestically, and probably about matches that OS for something like a $415-450M global launch I’d think 

 

$225M global is a crazy lowball 

Wait. You are predicting 200m+ OS OW. based on what? its not going to come anywhere close to IO2 in latin america and I am not seeing anything great in Korea/China as well. Asia would be weak as well. its going to rely in Europe/AUS in its OW. Those markets are generally more about legs except may be UK. 

 

I dont see Japan release date at imdb. Is it opening this week or later(sometimes movies open in Feb as that is optimal)

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wait. You are predicting 200m+ OS OW. based on what? its not going to come anywhere close to IO2 in latin america and I am not seeing anything great in Korea/China as well. Asia would be weak as well. its going to rely in Europe/AUS in its OW. Those markets are generally more about legs except may be UK. 

 

I dont see Japan release date at imdb. Is it opening this week or later(sometimes movies open in Feb as that is optimal)

Maybe he's using the same split as movie one? $600M DOM would put it at $950M+ OS

[keysersoze123]

Just now, HummingLemon496 said:

Maybe he's using the same split as movie one? $600M DOM would put it at $950M+ OS

That is expecting too much. It needs universal acclaim and even then Moana was not that big OS compared to 1st IO movie to increase that much. Even domestic its not going to hold anywhere close to IO2. I am expecting big OW and big drop in the 2nd weekend post thanksgiving. After that it should do well until Sonic 3/Mufasa weekend when it will see another big drop and then stabilize over holidays. I would say 2.2x or so of 5 day OW. 

[Flip]

I also don't get the reasoning behind 200m+ OS OW. This is how some big markets are looking:

 

Mexico: $9-10m

UK: $8-11m (this one I'm not too sure about)

Korea: $8-9m

Germany: $6-7.5m

 

Everywhere presales lag behind IO2, by differing magnitudes. I get its getting the full rollout, but it's not close enough to reach $200m, unless this is a bigger walkup monster than IO2 was which doesn't seem very feasible

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Flip said:

I also don't get the reasoning behind 200m+ OS OW. This is how some big markets are looking:

 

Mexico: $9-10m

UK: $8-11m (this one I'm not too sure about)

Korea: $8-9m

Germany: $6-7.5m

 

Everywhere presales lag behind IO2, by differing magnitudes. I get its getting the full rollout, but it's not close enough to reach $200m, unless this is a bigger walkup monster than IO2 was which doesn't seem very feasible

Olive just posted in China thread that he is expecting 10m OW and 25m finish. I wont be surprised if it goes lower as that market has only disappointed for hollywood movies. Even IO2/D&W did not break out this year. 

 

I wonder what @charlie Jatinder thinks. He is the only one who can predict OS OW. its a tough proposition to do as we dont get presales data from most markets.  

[Relevation]

Y'know what fair enough on the overseas numbers, that $200M figure was just a blind guess given the day and date global launch and my assumption that this would have similarly good presales internationally than domestic

Maybe more like a 5-day global opening in the $300M range

[keysersoze123]

I take back the comment that its not close to IO2 in latin america everywhere as Brazil tracking is saying its going to open close to IO2. IO2 if I am not wrong has the 2nd highest OW of all time and of course by far the highest grosser/admits in Brazil. 

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I take back the comment that its not close to IO2 in latin america everywhere as Brazil tracking is saying its going to open close to IO2. IO2 if I am not wrong has the 2nd highest OW of all time and of course by far the highest grosser/admits in Brazil. 

Didn't IO2 make more than Endgame in Latin America?

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Didn't IO2 make more than Endgame in Latin America?

Easily. But it was not about OW. It had insane WOM and so legs were crazy strong. Go back to expectations after OW and see where it ended up OS. I dont see Moana doing that.