Weekdays Thread (11/25-26)

[Migs20242]

 

[Assassin]

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

What do we think is a good comp for  Wicked going forward ? I’m thinking movies that opened between 110-120m. Beetlejuice would work in terms of pace, but would be useless after considering it was frontloaded and September

[vale9001]

1 minute ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

What do we think is a good comp for  Wicked going forward ? I’m thinking movies that opened between 110-120m. Beetlejuice would work in terms of pace, but would be useless after considering it was frontloaded and September

 

With thanksgiving week now the comparison doesn't make sense. I Guess Frozen 2 It's the most similar thing in terms of genre and same release.

 

Frozen made 12.7M First monday with -66.6%

 

 

[Assassin]

 

[JonathanMB]

Yeah the only good comparison for Wicked is gonna be fellow pre-Thanksgiving $100M+ openers - all the Twilights, Hunger Games, Harry Potters. Well, more the last two since the Twilights were always ridiculously frontloaded. It's already wildly outpacing most of them though, since any Monday gross above $12.8M is gonna be a record for November.

[Mojoguy]

33 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

 

$100M is now achievable for the 5 day!

[keysersoze123]

I am not sure Wicked will be able to have that big a 2nd weekend. There would be some impact due to Moana though holidays will help and its OW was not that PLF heavy as most movies as it shared them with Gladiator. 

[vale9001]

Under 60% drop for gladiator looks good too.

Edited November 26 by vale9001

[Krissykins]

Amazing Monday for Wicked after the already unprecedented Sunday hold. 

[JimmyB]

This is going to be a really fun weekday thread to follow.  Quick peek at Cinemark theaters around where I live today and Moana has almost all the XD showtimes.   Wicked has the other XD showtimes and those are already basically sold out for the week.  I think Wicked might have a capacity limit on how high it can go this week.   Moana, Wicked and Gladiator have 80% of the showtimes.  Red One is the only film of the leftovers that has a decent amount of showtimes. A film like Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin is already down to only 2 showtimes today.  

 

[stripe]

Fronzen 2 grossed 12.7M in Monday, and after that it grossed 145M until the end of Thanksgiving.

 

After a heavy 15.5-16M Monday for Wicked 2, something around 150M isn't out of the question. Expecting about 270M after Thanksgiving. Huge!!

[Unfitclock]

All te films should increase tomorrow and then increase again on Wednesday 

[Arlborn]

This weekdays thread could have a special name at least to indicate how hype this actually will be. Because oh boy, this is HYPE.

 

It would also probably help with traffic to this link.

 

 

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

Fronzen 2 grossed 12.7M in Monday, and after that it grossed 145M until the end of Thanksgiving.

 

After a heavy 15.5-16M Monday for Wicked 2, something around 150M isn't out of the question. Expecting about 270M after Thanksgiving. Huge!!

 

 

it's important to notice before people going into disappointment territory like for the last wekeend

 

1) only new release against frozen in the thankgiving second weekend was Knives out that opened with 41M in 5 days and well...different audience. Here we have Moana..seems a little bit different

 

 

2) the week before the bigger opener against Frozen was A beautiful day in the neighborhood with 13M OW. Here we have also the follow up week of Gladiator which still was a 55M opener. 

 

Edited November 26 by vale9001

[M37]

Quote

Want to reiterate how much a sub-20% drop on this weekend is an outlier, and why it was ballsy for the studio to estimate it even if they had solid advance sales numbers in hand.  I'm a visual person, so whipped this up this morning, using Charlie's $30M figure instead of studio number

 

Previous version of this chart had incorrect data for 2019

 

Again, can nearly count on one hand the number of sub-25% holds on this day, and only one above $3M*, and not at single sub-20%, save for the heavily asterisked Eras tour last year, which did not have any shows on Mon or Tue.  [*Did not catch yesterday that Gladiator II also had an aggressive Sunday estimate, but looks like that won't quite hold up, as did Bonhoeffer at -20%]

 

Wanted to follow up on this post from weekend thread, with actuals. Gladiator was overestimated and fell back to the pack (-28.7%), as did Bonheoffer (-25%), and Wicked came above Charlie's early estimate and became even more of a ridiculous outlier, actually hitting the estimated -13%

 

 

Will note that the top 10 overall held very well, with 8/10 movies going sub-30%, which only 14/80 films this data sample had done previously! Does seem like there are more (or perhaps bigger?) school districts off for this Monday than pre-pandemic, or even last year, but that's maybe a 5% boost, so does not alone explain Wicked's outlier performance

[toutvabien]

Musicals are back. Wickana saved theaters. Moacked.

[M37]

Quote

Very curious to see the Monday number now, if it can be in range of HG:BoSS -52% last year, or falls back in line with the -60% more historical trendline

Also following up here. According to Charlie's estimate, seems to be very much in line with HG:BoSS, even shading under a -50%. 

 

The last two days does raise my expectation for the 5-day, probably ballparking at $90M, but Tuesday - with Moana 2 entering the picture - will be the key.

[Liiviig 1998]

Not comfortable calling 100m 5 day for wicked. It depends on how big Moana2 is .

 

Whats the record for largest thanksgiving  weekend.

 

We could be looking at a weekend of 280-300M+.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

FYI - it's "stream for cheap" week...

 

Hulu - $1/month (12 months)

Disney+ add on for Hulu - $2/month (12 months)

Max - $3/month (6 months)

Peacock - $20/year

 

As I see more, I'll post them...yes, I'm getting all of them, so I can keep up with movies even if not going to as many (since I gave up my Cinemark membership as of Jan 2025 - now, if they gave me a deal like above, I'd keep it:)...