May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[Fake]

It doesnt matter whether TA will break the OW record or not, I just hope it has good legs and passes 400m finally.

It will. I don't have a sliver of doubt about that.

[Fake]

It's too early still even for gitesh's number. Trust me, I want it to be lower for the sake of my club, but I think it will be at or over 70m by morning.

Hope so.....What are your projections with 70M OD?

[spizzer]

That would be astoundingly underwhelming for me.

That's about what I predicted up until this week. Flat from IM2. I changed my tune this week, expecting a small bump

[75Live]

That's why I was cautioning everyone not to go overboard.OW record was always less likely than not.

Oh i agree. I was on the fence about it doing the OW myself. But with everyone now changing their story, and trying to have it both ways, it makes it seem even more disappointing. I am fine if it makes $160+ and doesn't get the OW record. It's still a great number

[phillip]

over 400 million total and i'll be happy

[John Marston]

Iron Man 2 attendance? What's wrong with us Americans??? n

[Fake]

Iron Man 2 attendance? What's wrong with us Americans??? n

I think I am close to figuring that out.....

[Chewy]

Based on the sellouts I'm seeing I would be very, very surprised if it's not 70M or more by tomorrow morning

[kyky]

just as i said a few days ago, i'm good as long as it beats THG OW. i don't know about total though.

Edited May 5, 2012 by kyky

[Dementeleus]

Iron Man 2 attendance? What's wrong with us Americans??? n

If... if if if those extrapolations hold, you could say that the string of "OK but not great" quasi-prequels to this didn't really build the audience beyond the core, whereas IM2 had the benefit of being the followup to a very popular film.It's BATMAN BEGINS syndrome.... so TA2 should be pretty strong.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

That's about what I predicted up until this week. Flat from IM2. I changed my tune this week, expecting a small bump

And that's fine. I was expecting 160mish for months until the hype machine took over. But that Midnight number now goes from amazing to slightly troubling. This was my worst fear for this. That it would act like a sequel to five films. Huge midnights(for a SH film in May), big Friday, then decent weekend, then crrrrrash. I'm still hoping it doesn't happen, but doing LESS attendance than IM2 on FriDAY after basically doubling it during the midnight shows is not a very good sign. WOM should be excellent, but it may not be able to save it from a bad multiplier...look at THG.

[spizzer]

Evening and late-night sellouts have been stronger than THG here

[spizzer]

And that's fine. I was expecting 160mish for months until the hype machine took over. But that Midnight number now goes from amazing to slightly troubling. This was my worst fear for this. That it would act like a sequel to five films. Huge midnights(for a SH film in May), big Friday, then decent weekend, then crrrrrash. I'm still hoping it doesn't happen, but doing LESS attendance than IM2 on FriDAY after basically doubling it during the midnight shows is not a very good sign. WOM should be excellent, but it may not be able to save it from a bad multiplier...look at THG.

I agree with everything you've said. I still hold that these current estimates are off. As recently as March we thought THG might fall between 75-80M based on the reports we were getting at this time of day and earlier. I don't see why anything that's been said so far shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt Edited May 5, 2012 by spizzer

[BK007]

That would be astoundingly underwhelming for me.

Kind of like the Toy Story 3 predictions then. I still think it's a great number if it beats IM2 admissions.Clearly Iron Man drives this franchise with the results or non-results of Hulk, Thor and Captain.I was hoping it could get the record, but I wasn't believing. Yes, it's inflated by 3D, but as we have seen with most every 3D film besides Avatar and Alice in Wonderland, 3D doesn't actually inflate the gross. I mean, yeah there's that huge % added on but I find it hard to believe that each 3D film's gross would be less than what it already got. I still think Potter would have got to $380m, I still think Wrath of the Titans would have got to $80, Lorax to $200 and so on so forth. Maybe only a film sold specifically on 3D like Tron Legacy, but even then I think minimally.Also I personally think it will get Iron Man legs so in the end, it will be an increase in admissions. It's got really good WOM going unlike any of the previous films since Iron Man.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Hope so.....What are your projections with 70M OD?

Well the midnights came in quite stronger than I expected so I'm not sure what that means for Saturday as I was expecting +5% w/o MID. But maybe it will be a little more frontloaded due to higher midnights... I still think a slight increase on Saturday so,18.7m MID51.3m FRI52.3m SAT (+2%)36.61m SUN (-30%)158.91 OW

[iceroll]

The 70-80m numbers were from a lot earlier on in the day though, I think the estimated number was around 65m around the same time of day for THG's Friday. I mean it could definitely go up for Avengers but probably not more than 2 or 3 million.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I agree with everything you've said. I still hold that these current estimates are off. As recently as March we thought THG might fall between 75-80M based on the reports we were getting at this time of day and earlier. I don't see why anything that's been said so far shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt

Yeah, hopefully Disney is lowballing because they want a lot of media attention in the morning when they release their official estimate. I'd like to hear a rival studio say something about it. They would probably be more honest because they will want to steal Disney's thunder.

[kyky]

this is acting exactly like THG (if the numbers hold). legs will be better for THG i'm afraid. new book adaptation, curiosity to see a new product..

[BK007]

Also, for me, if it crosses $140m I'm really pleased already.I guess not being on here and reading the hype or non-hype has saved me from this disappointment that seems to be seeping out.Anyway it's still early it could go up.

[spizzer]

The 70-80m numbers were from a lot earlier on in the day though, I think the estimated number was around 65m around the same time of day for THG's Friday. I mean it could definitely go up for Avengers but probably not more than 2 or 3 million.

Nope. All we had was 75-80M and then around 70 million during the evening. The 66M figure was given by Nikki at 3AM EST, Saturday morning.