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May 7 - 10, 2012 Weekday Numbers: AVENGERS 12.5 Thurs pg 61

By 75Live, in Numbers and Data

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artist Indie Sensation

artist

Posted
Posted

I am a huge Batman fan. I'm also a huge Nolan fan up until The Prestige, but there's a thing about your attitude in your first posts that made me spot you as one of those Nolan fans that keep thinking TDK is unbeatable and confront people for being impressed with The Avengers success. Maybe I'm wrong, but you're the one that lead me to think that way with your reactions.

I try to keep my personal emotions (if I like or dislike a certain movie/director) out of the equation when I try to understand it's BO run.

But like baumer, I apologize if you felt "accused", even if it was a joke, and I think you should add Avatar to your chart. :)

No worries. Avatar's run was quite different though, you think it will be a valuable comparison?
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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

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I try to keep my personal emotions (if I like or dislike a certain movie/director) out of the equation when I try to understand it's BO run.No worries. Avatar's run was quite different though, you think it will be a valuable comparison?

I've seen some other charts where Avatar's run appears and I think it's a valid standard next to where The Avengers can end up as far as box office goes.
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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

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Fantastic hold! $95M-$110M seems to be the range for the second weekend, though nothing would surprise me.

Here in Brazil we had an 18% drop from the first weekend to the second, I'm taking our BO as basis to throw an oddball bet for what The Avengers can achieve this second weekend, predicting that the drop will be somewhere between 25%-30% from first weekend minust the opening midnight. Yes, I am aiming high and it's unlikely, but who knows? :P
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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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Here in Brazil we had an 18% drop from the first weekend to the second, I'm taking our BO as basis to throw an oddball bet for what The Avengers can achieve this second weekend, predicting that the drop will be somewhere between 25%-30% from first weekend minust the opening midnight. Yes, I am aiming high and it's unlikely, but who knows? :P

So you're predicting $132m on the low end? If it makes that much, it will reach $400m in 10 days. Needs $130m to do it, or a 37% drop overall. It's possible. :D
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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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Here in Brazil we had an 18% drop from the first weekend to the second, I'm taking our BO as basis to throw an oddball bet for what The Avengers can achieve this second weekend, predicting that the drop will be somewhere between 25%-30% from first weekend minust the opening midnight. Yes, I am aiming high and it's unlikely, but who knows? :P

In seriousness are there any foreign markets with a habit of foreshadowing the US takings (proportionately of course)?Eg if a film falls 25% in Australia, 50% in the UK and 82% in Peru, is one a better measuring stick than the others or is America a unique and special flower in the BO garden? :)
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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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So you're predicting $132m on the low end? If it makes that much, it will reach $400m in 10 days. Needs $130m to do it, or a 37% drop overall. It's possible. :D

37% would be SM1 territory.
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doublejack Box Office Gold

doublejack

Posted
Posted

The average ticket price doesn't properly account for actual number of 2D and 3D tickets sold, so you can't go by that. Based on your logic, Avatar sold 95 million tickets in its first run. It actually sold around 75-76 million.

You've got a very valid point. The actual number of tickets sold is probably a bit less than that link indicates, relative to 2D only films like TDK. However, these are all just estimations. All we know for certain is the actual gross $$$, and crunching the numbers indicates that TA sold a few more tickets OW than TDK did, even accounting for 3D premiums and inflation.

Could we get a 166% jump on Friday?

That would be a lot, but it is definitely within the realm of possibility. You're looking at the SM1 numbers, I assume. I think 125% is a lock, anything more would be gravy.

Updated chartIf anyone wants another movie to be added to this chart, please let me know.

I would like to see Avatar on there. I don't think TA will have that kind of run, but it would be cool to see how long TA can stay above the curve for Avatar and perhaps predict when it will fall under it.
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Accursed Arachnid!™ Summer Tentpole

Accursed Arachnid!™

Posted
Posted

One of the most epic threads. Was Kal involved in that one?

Of course...and wasn't pisher in on that one two? That guy made some pretty horrible predictions. As in ghastly.

I'm fishing for pisher...will he bite?

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

Posted
Posted (edited)

You've got a very valid point. The actual number of tickets sold is probably a bit less than that link indicates, relative to 2D only films like TDK. However, these are all just estimations. All we know for certain is the actual gross $$$, and crunching the numbers indicates that TA sold a few more tickets OW than TDK did, even accounting for 3D premiums and inflation.

Not for the 6-day it doesn't. It sold less than 1 million more tickets than TDK on opening weekend, but has fallen behind TDK in overall tickets because of the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday discrepancies. Likewise with Thursday if you want to go to 7-day totals. Now, it will make up some ground on this weekend for sure. Cory ran the numbers yesterday and came up with this list:http://forums.boxoff...179#entry2301796-day ets1. The Dark Knight: 31.3M2. Spider-Man 2: 29.0M2. Revenge of the Fallen: 28.8M2. Revenge of the Sith: 28.5M2. Dead Man’s Chest: 28.4M6. The Avengers: 27.5M7. Spider-Man 3: 26.0M8. Spider-Man: 24.8M8. The Matrix Reloaded: 24.4M8. Harry Potter 7p2: 24.2M8. New Moon: 24.2MThe thing that throws off BOM's ticket sales is that it estimates Avengers sold 26m tickets on opening weekend. It was more like 22.5m-22.75m. Based on the 3D percentage reported by Disney for the weekend, there is zero chance it was even close to 26 million tickets. Edited by redfirebird2008
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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

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Posted

So you're predicting $132m on the low end? If it makes that much, it will reach $400m in 10 days. Needs $130m to do it, or a 37% drop overall. It's possible. :D

Yeah, I feel like The Avengers hasn't show us all the cards on its sleeve just yet. I can see this getting $125m-$132m. It's a longshot, but who knows.

In seriousness are there any foreign markets with a habit of foreshadowing the US takings (proportionately of course)?Eg if a film falls 25% in Australia, 50% in the UK and 82% in Peru, is one a better measuring stick than the others or is America a unique and special flower in the BO garden? :)

I think Brazil and USA have a pretty similar taste when it comes to blockbusters, and I was really impressed by the second week drop here, so while I'm most certainly wrong, I think The Avengers does have a shot to surprise us even more this weekend. :D

37% would be SM1 territory.

Let's hope I'm right. :D
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