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May 7 - 10, 2012 Weekday Numbers: AVENGERS 12.5 Thurs pg 61

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You've got a very valid point. The actual number of tickets sold is probably a bit less than that link indicates, relative to 2D only films like TDK. However, these are all just estimations. All we know for certain is the actual gross $$$, and crunching the numbers indicates that TA sold a few more tickets OW than TDK did, even accounting for 3D premiums and inflation.

Not for the 6-day it doesn't. It sold less than 1 million more tickets than TDK on opening weekend, but has fallen behind TDK in overall tickets because of the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday discrepancies. Likewise with Thursday if you want to go to 7-day totals. Now, it will make up some ground on this weekend for sure. Cory ran the numbers yesterday and came up with this list:http://forums.boxoff...179#entry2301796-day ets1. The Dark Knight: 31.3M2. Spider-Man 2: 29.0M2. Revenge of the Fallen: 28.8M2. Revenge of the Sith: 28.5M2. Dead Man’s Chest: 28.4M6. The Avengers: 27.5M7. Spider-Man 3: 26.0M8. Spider-Man: 24.8M8. The Matrix Reloaded: 24.4M8. Harry Potter 7p2: 24.2M8. New Moon: 24.2MThe thing that throws off BOM's ticket sales is that it estimates Avengers sold 26m tickets on opening weekend. It was more like 22.5m-22.75m. Based on the 3D percentage reported by Disney for the weekend, there is zero chance it was even close to 26 million tickets. Edited by redfirebird2008

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So you're predicting $132m on the low end? If it makes that much, it will reach $400m in 10 days. Needs $130m to do it, or a 37% drop overall. It's possible. :D

Yeah, I feel like The Avengers hasn't show us all the cards on its sleeve just yet. I can see this getting $125m-$132m. It's a longshot, but who knows.

In seriousness are there any foreign markets with a habit of foreshadowing the US takings (proportionately of course)?Eg if a film falls 25% in Australia, 50% in the UK and 82% in Peru, is one a better measuring stick than the others or is America a unique and special flower in the BO garden? :)

I think Brazil and USA have a pretty similar taste when it comes to blockbusters, and I was really impressed by the second week drop here, so while I'm most certainly wrong, I think The Avengers does have a shot to surprise us even more this weekend. :D

37% would be SM1 territory.

Let's hope I'm right. :D

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Is TA on course to have a BIG count of 1M+ days?What is the top3 or 5?

Edited by Gideon

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37% would be SM1 territory.

Yes. This has pretty similar WOM to SM1, possibly even better WOM than SM1.

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I'm not sure what this is supposed to be, but I like it. If its some japanese porn-thing, please tell me.

Posted Image

:D Don't worry. It's nothing related to porn stuff.

This is Chinese, not Japanese. I think it's just for fun.

For your translation:

"It's painful with outdated culture." "It's painful without a girlfriend."

"It's painful without a brother." "It's painful without a boyfriend."

"It's so delighted to be handsome rich man." "It's painful to be a cyclop."

"It's painful to be unbeatable." "You guys are all bullies to me. So painful."

Characters in the middle are: "The painful and cute ally"

Sorry, my English is so poor that I cannot translate the exact humor inside.

Edited by chenguonk

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Of course...and wasn't pisher in on that one two? That guy made some pretty horrible predictions. As in ghastly.

'm fishing for pisher...will he bite?

Was bojomojojohn involved back then? Is he still on this board under a different name? I remember he was THE big Star Wars defender back in 2002, and he was beside himself when SM1 beat ROTS that summer. He predicted a $100 mil boost when ROTS hit IMAX - now THAT was a prediction! B)

Don't mean to hijack the thread - I recently found this board after years on the BOM boards. Good to see some old "faces" still around, like baumer and BKB.

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:D Don't worry. It's nothing related to porn stuff.This is Chinese, not Japanese. I think it's just for fun.For your translation:"It's painful with outdated culture." "It's painful without a girlfriend.""It's painful without a brother." "It's painful without a boyfriend.""It's so delighted to be handsome rich man." "It's painful to be a cyclop.""It's painful to be unbeatable." "You guys are all bullies to me. So painful."Characters in the middle are: "The painful and cute ally"Sorry, my English is so poor that I cannot translate the exact humor inside.

I like loki's and Iron Man's caption.

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Yes. This has pretty similar WOM to SM1, possibly even better WOM than SM1.

BLASPHEMER! :angry:

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Is it me or am i seeing, here or linked, many 75-80-90M predictions?Give me 100 plz.

It's not you. In fact, I don't think we've seen a mainstream media prediction for over 100 yet. My guess is that nobody wants to look overzealous, so they'd rather aim low. Also, anything over 75 will break the record... so all of these predictions are sufficient enough to accomplish that. These prognosticators can say "See, we predicted the record would fall... we just underestimated how well TA would hold up". There's little reason to take the risk and call for a $100M second weekend.Today's number will tell the story. If TA can haul in $30M or very close to it today, then I believe $100 this weeked is in the bag. If it gets to $33-35M+ then 110 or 120 is where it will end up this weekend. If it has a smaller jump, though, like 100% for a $25M haul today... then $100M this weekend becomes very unlikely. It would need a Saturday of epic proportions to get there in that scenario.

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Here in Brazil we had an 18% drop from the first weekend to the second, I'm taking our BO as basis to throw an oddball bet for what The Avengers can achieve this second weekend, predicting that the drop will be somewhere between 25%-30% from first weekend minust the opening midnight. Yes, I am aiming high and it's unlikely, but who knows? :P

That would be insane...ly AWESOME!I think a 40% drop would be best case, but I like your optimism. :D

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Not for the 6-day it doesn't. It sold less than 1 million more tickets than TDK on opening weekend, but has fallen behind TDK in overall tickets because of the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday discrepancies. Likewise with Thursday if you want to go to 7-day totals. Now, it will make up some ground on this weekend for sure. Cory ran the numbers yesterday and came up with this list:http://forums.boxoff...179#entry2301796-day ets1. The Dark Knight: 31.3M2. Spider-Man 2: 29.0M2. Revenge of the Fallen: 28.8M2. Revenge of the Sith: 28.5M2. Dead Man’s Chest: 28.4M6. The Avengers: 27.5M7. Spider-Man 3: 26.0M8. Spider-Man: 24.8M8. The Matrix Reloaded: 24.4M8. Harry Potter 7p2: 24.2M8. New Moon: 24.2MThe thing that throws off BOM's ticket sales is that it estimates Avengers sold 26m tickets on opening weekend. It was more like 22.5m-22.75m. Based on the 3D percentage reported by Disney for the weekend, there is zero chance it was even close to 26 million tickets.

Edit - note I said OW... not 6 day totals. (end edit) Of course TA lost it's attendance lead over TDK during the week. It's the whole May vs. true summer movie thing. Movies sell fewer tickets during the week when kids are in school, it's an established fact. If TA has the weekend that it appears it could (and I mean an optimistic $120M weekend), then it will retake the lead, however. Edited by doublejack

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Thu - 12.5Fri - 30.3 +143%Sat - 44.2 +46%Sun - 28.8 -35%Total - 103.3m10 day total - 373m. Surpassing the previous record by 60m!!

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I still think TA will drop harder than TDK from here on out. It might be close, but its not going much over TDK DOM total, IF it gets there.

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I don't see how it gets any worse. There was a guy who said DragonballZ would make 100 mill OW, that's close.

Wasn't it Kal who said Dragonball could make 600mil and beat Titanic, it might not of been Kal but i do remember someone saying it on Mojo.

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Edit - note I said OW... not 6 day totals. (end edit) Of course TA lost it's attendance lead over TDK during the week. It's the whole May vs. true summer movie thing. Movies sell fewer tickets during the week when kids are in school, it's an established fact. If TA has the weekend that it appears it could (and I mean an optimistic $120M weekend), then it will retake the lead, however.

Yeah, I calculated that it needs about $120m to pass TDK's tickets after 10 days. Very possible outcome. I'm predicting $115m, but all it needs is SM1/IM1 increases/holds throughout the weekend to get there.

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I still think TA will drop harder than TDK from here on out. It might be close, but its not going much over TDK DOM total, IF it gets there.

As I stated in another thread, if TA just performs in the middle of X2 and IM1 from here it makes 600m+. I think TDK's total is more probable than just possible.

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As I stated in another thread, if TA just performs in the middle of X2 and IM1 from here it makes 600m+. I think TDK's total is more probable than just possible.

$550m is a stone cold lock, and I suspect after the weekend we'll be saying the same thing about $575-600m as well.
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I try to keep my personal emotions (if I like or dislike a certain movie/director) out of the equation when I try to understand it's BO run.No worries. Avatar's run was quite different though, you think it will be a valuable comparison?

Some people on here thought the film could make 700mil and some thought even beat AVATAR so yeah i think you should add it.

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I still think TA will drop harder than TDK from here on out. It might be close, but its not going much over TDK DOM total, IF it gets there.

Very much like Star Wars and Spider-Man, The Avengers is a movie that families can watch with a god-sent WOM. It appeals to all demographics, unlike TDK. You're fooling yourself if you don't think The Avengers won't cross TDK DOM. Edited by iJackSparrow

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I still think TA will drop harder than TDK from here on out. It might be close, but its not going much over TDK DOM total, IF it gets there.

Uh, ok. Whatever you say.

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