JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Ding Feng]

Don't forget that frozen soon comes and it will easily defeat hobbit 2.

Also hobbit 2 has locked that it won't reach 1 bilion!

[peludo]

Don't forget that frozen soon comes and it will easily defeat hobbit 2.

Also hobbit 2 has locked that it won't reach 1 bilion!

That was locked a month and a half ago. In fact, two weeks ago we were talking about a 930 million WW final. Thanks to China, it will rise to 960-970, but no more.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissions (03/01)Sat. Admissions [# of showings] - Film (Week of Release)30,417 (39% 3D) [273] - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (NEW)23,315 [278] - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Week 3)13,280 [268] - Kiki's Delivery Service (NEW)12,989 [202] - The Eternal Zero (Week 11)8,667 [223] - Kick Ass 2 (Week 2)7,762 [245] - Kamen Teacher (Week 2)5,516 [191] - I Want to Hold You (Week 5)5,356 [152] - Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Week 3)4,381 [130] - Rush (Week 4)3,603 [66] - The Wolf of Wall Street (Week 5)2,917 [75] - Nebraska (NEW)2,874 [59] - Lee Daniels' The Butler (Week 3)2,781 [35] - Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Week 4)2,484 [71] - American Hustle (Week 5)1,899 [50] - Space Pirates: Abyss of Hyperspace (Week 2)1,707 [70] - The Little House (Week 6)1,412 [55] - Trick: The Last Stage (Week 7)1,328 [79] - Machete Kills (NEW)1,224 [5] - The IDOLM@STER MOVIE (Week 6)751 [22] - Dallas Buyers Club (Week 2)743 [24] - Anime Mirai Project 2014 (NEW)717 [51] - Lupin III Vs. Detective Conan (Week 13)666 [18] - Refugee in Tokyo (Week 2)652 [46] - Thor: The Dark World (Week 5)Keep in mind that Saturday was the 1st, a discount ticket day (40% off), so big drops are expected on Sunday. Even still, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should still get near or just over 20,000 admissions tomorrow, so 50,000 for the weekend at Toho Cinemas looks resonable.50,000 admissions here would give it 225-250,000 overall, so an opening weekend of ¥300 million ($3 million) or maybe slightly more is looking likely. ¥300 million exactly would be a 36% increase over the opening weekend of the first film.

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

That was locked a month and a half ago. In fact, two weeks ago we were talking about a 930 million WW!

No i believe 950m no more

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates [03/01-02]

01 (--) ¥292 million ($2.9 million), 0, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) DEBUT
02 (01) ¥232 million ($2.3 million), -2%, The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 3
03 (02) ¥139 million ($1.4 million), +11%, The Eternal Zero (Toho) Week 11
04 (--) ¥132 million ($1.3 million), 0, Kiki's Delivery Service (Toei) DEBUT
05 (04) ¥69 million ($670,000), -13%, I Want to Hold You (Toho) Week 5
06 (03) ¥66 million ($640,000), -40%, Kamen Teacher (Showgate) Week 2
07 (07) ¥57 million ($550,000), -3%, Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Shochiku) Week 4
08 (05) ¥53 million ($510,000), -32%, Kick Ass 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 2
09 (06) ¥42 million ($400,000), -37%, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Paramount) Week 3
10 (08) ¥38 million ($370,000), -25%, The Little House (Shochiku) Week 6

>Solid for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. If the estimate holds, it's about a 32% increase over the debut of the first film (only about a 7/8% jump in USD though). It also opened on Friday, so a 3-day total of ¥360/370 million ($3.5-3.6 million) is likely. This will also mark the first time since September (24 weeks ago) that a Hollywood film has claimed the # 1 spot in Japan.

>Really good for The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji. Admissions are up enough due to Saturday (~20%) that it might see a slight increase over last weekend when actuals are released.

>The Eternal Zero looks to have remained in the Top 3 with a 30%+ increase in admissions in its 11th-weekend at the box-office. Very, very few films have earned an 11th-weekend above ¥100 million (I'll have a list up later), and it no doubt has crossed the ¥8 billion ($78 million) mark now and might be up to ¥8.1 billion ($79/80 million).

>Kiki's Delivery Service disappoints as expected. A live-action adaptation wasn't anticipated in the slightest.

And keep in mind the estimates can change quite a bit with actuals due to tickets being 40% off on Saturday. Usually reducing an estimated drop by 10/15% counters this, but sometimes a few films end up well outside that range making estimates rough on these type of weekends. Tiger & Bunny is the one most likely to see a big change since its tickets are normally ~15% above the average.

[Olive]

WB reported 3.4M 3-day OW for DOS, AUJ made 3.55M according to BOM.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Olive

[Hernan Gonzalez]

WB reported 3.4M 3-day OW for DOS, AUJ made 3.55M according to BOM.

Worst exchange rate for DoS?

[Olive]

Worst exchange rate for DoS?

Yeah, DOS is bigger than AUJ in Yen.

[Leyla]

aw pessimistic approch worked again   

boo @  exchange rate 

[Olive]

DOS 2-day 313.3M yen/$3.1M

(AUJ: 220M yen)

3 days: 396.4M yen/$3.9M

(AUJ:$3.56m)

Edited March 3, 2014 by Olive

[lab276]

Mega-Blockbuster ShowdownFilms that Grossed ¥8 billion+ since 2004 [11th Weekend Comparison]11th Weekend Gross (% change) / 11-Week Total -> Final Total - Film (Year)¥312 million (-13%) / ¥13.23 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)¥253 million (-18%) / ¥16.85 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)¥139 million (+11%) / ¥8.10 billion -> ¥?.?? billion - The Eternal Zero (2013) *ESTIMATE* ¥120 million (-23%) / ¥12.94 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)¥102 million (-44%) / ¥11.31 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)________________¥99 million (-36%) / ¥14.58 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)¥78 million (-43%) / ¥7.59 billion -> ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (2004)¥65 million (-53%) / ¥9.76 billion -> ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)¥64 million (-36%) / ¥10.82 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)¥52 million (-28%) / ¥11.64 billion -> ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)¥45 million (-37%) / ¥9.08 billion -> ¥9.17 billion - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (2005)¥44 million (-47%) / ¥10.68 billion -> ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)¥41 million (-46%) / ¥8.98 billion -> ¥9.25 billion - Arrietty (2010)¥37 million (-48%) / ¥8.83 billion -> ¥8.96 billion - Monsters University (2013)¥31 million (-47%) / ¥9.93 billion -> ¥10.02 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)¥31 million (-60%) / ¥10.62 billion -> ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)¥26 million (-43%) / ¥8.90 billion -> ¥9.05 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)¥24 million (-49%) / ¥8.29 billion -> ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)¥24 million (-23%) / ¥7.93 billion -> ¥8.04 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)¥22 million (-39%) / ¥7.72 billion -> ¥8.15 billion - Hero (2007)¥19 million (-56%) / ¥9.54 billion -> ¥9.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)¥11 million (-77%) / ¥9.23 billion -> ¥9.40 billion - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)¥8 million (-65%) / ¥7.89 billion -> ¥8.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)¥7 million (-79%) / ¥8.79 billion -> ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Ranking [03/01-02]

01 (--) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) DEBUT
02 (01) The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 3
03 (--) Kiki's Delivery Service (Toei) DEBUT
04 (02) The Eternal Zero (Toho) Week 11
05 (04) I Want to Hold You (Toho) Week 5
06 (03) Kamen Teacher (Showgate) Week 2
07 (05) Kick Ass 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 2
08 (08) Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Shochiku) Week 4
09 (06) Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Paramount) Week 3
10 (12) The IDOLM@STER MOVIE (Aniplex) Week 6

>The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug debuted to ¥313,266,250 ($3.1 million) with 244,577 admissions over the weekend on 681 screens.

The opening is +42% better (+15% in USD) than An Unexpected Journey in gross and a very impressive +67% boost in admissions thanks to the discount Saturday. Also of note, is that this one opened on almost 200 less screens than the first film, so the opening is moreso impressive. It won't remain ahead of the first film by this much since it opened on a discount weekend and having Spring Break isn't as good as New Year, but it should have little problem out-grossing the first film and will probably exceed the ¥2 billion ($20 million) mark.

This is still a FAR behind the Lord of the Ring films, but it's a good improvement over the first Hobbit release.

>The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji continues to do well and has exceeded ¥1.2 billion ($11/12 million) after 3 weeks of release.

>Kiki's Delivery Service (not to be confused with the Studio Ghibli animated release, this is a live-action adaptation from another studio/distributor) opened on 281 screens to ¥127,660,300 ($1.2 million) with 116,857 admissions. This is an expected mediocre number.

>The Eternal Zero remains very strong in its 11th-week of release, down only -7% week-to-week and has now earned ¥8.09 billion ($78.6 million) with 6.61 million admissions after 72 days.

[Leyla]

 

 

Also of note, is that this one opened on almost 200 less screens than the first film

btw why so???

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [03/08-09]


[Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party of Five]

01 (--) ¥620 million ($6.1 million), Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party of Five (Toho) NEW
02 (--) ¥210 million ($2.0 million), Silver Spoon: The Movie (Toho) NEW
03 (01) ¥190 million ($1.8 million), The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 2
04 (02) ¥135 million ($1.3 million), The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 4
05 (04) ¥95 million ($930,000), The Eternal Zero (Toho) Week 12
06 (03) ¥75 million ($730,000), Kiki's Delivery Service (Toei) Week 2
07 (--) ¥70 million ($680,000), The Great, Shurarabon (Asmik Ace/Toei) NEW
08 (05) ¥35 million ($340,000), I Want to Hold You (Toho) Week 6
09 (06) ¥30 million ($290,000), Kamen Teacher (Showgate) Week 3
10 (08) ¥30 million ($280,000), Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Shochiku) Week 5

>Another March, another Doraemon film. It's the first of the annual animated trifecta that distributor Toho established in 1998. Doraemon every March, Detective Conan every April, and Pokemon every July. And together, they regularly gross ~¥10 billion (~$100 million) every year.

Doraemon 34 has some really, really strong early ticket sales, and for a film with such a strong child/family audience, this is a great sign. Pretty much all of its showtimes until after 4/5PM are either nearing or over half-capacity. I don't think it'll beat last year's record opening (¥667 million), but it may very well go over ¥600 million (~$6 million) based on the excellent ticket sales so far today to deliver what will be one of the biggest openings of 2014.

>Silver Spoon burned off a little demand from the fans since it opened on Friday, and ticket sales yesterday looked alright at best. It should be able to open high enough to give The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug a run at 2nd place for the weekend, though.

>12 Years a Slave opens this weekend via Gaga at 49 locations, and coming off of its Best Picture win this past weekend, it could earn enough to make the bottom of the Top 10. The ~¥30/35 million that'll it will need is certainly reasonable. It does, however, probably have the least amount of interested amongst other Best Picture winners in a very long time.

[Olive]

TOHO admissions for DOS：

March 1st: 30,417

March 8th: 8,951

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissions (03/08)Admissions [# of showings] - Film (Week of Release)42,541 [316] - Doraemon 34 (NEW)8,953 [308] - Silver Spoon (NEW)8,951 (27% 3D) [251] - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Week 2)8,731 [240] - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Week 4)7,621 [119] - 12 Years a Slave (NEW)5,125 [126] - Kamen Teacher (Week 3)4,024 [176] - The Eternal Zero (Week 12)3,869 [182] - Kiki's Delivery Service (Week 2)3,619 [258] - The Great, Shurarabon (NEW)2,535 [37] - The IDOLM@STER MOVIE (Week 7)2,194 [116] - Kick Ass 2 (Week 3)2,063 [105] - I Want to Hold You (Week 6)1,793 [23] - Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Week 5)1,251 [38] - The Wolf of Wall Street (Week 6)Doreamon opened with the most admissions at Toho Cinemas on Saturday since Lupin III Vs. Detective Conan (51,000) back in December. And Sunday will be even bigger as it usually is for any film that skews towards a kids/family audience. 500,000 admissions and ¥550 million+ ($5.5 million) over the weekend looks likely, and it'll probably push towards the 550,000+ and perhaps ¥600 million+ ($6 million) mark.If it does more than 539,000 admissions over the weekend, it'll be the biggest opening (in admissions) since The Wind Rises back in July 2013.Not bad for Silver Spoon, but it won't be making ¥200 million with these admissions and will probably lose to The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug in gross over the weekend, too.12 Years a Slave may look like it's doing very well, and it is at Toho Cinemas, but most of its 49 theaters are Toho Cinemas so the ranking will be much lower on the national level.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Doreamon may hurt Frozen.

[Rsyu]

Doreamon may hurt Frozen.

I really hope not

[catlover]

Doreamon may hurt Frozen.

 

Why? They can co-exist. Look at Arrietty & Toy Story 3 in 2010. Also Monsters University and The Wind Rises. Besides, Frozen is the bigger movie here, or at least it has a potential to be bigger. While Doraemon is stable and predictable and will probably make $40m max. In fact, I think it will be the other way around. Frozen might hurt Doraemon. Plus, it looks like this year's movie won't open bigger than last year's.

Edited March 9, 2014 by catlover

[Olive]

DOS drop will be over 50%.

AUJ dropped 34%.