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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

OD - ¥710M*

OP - ¥600M

OW- ¥1.31B

 

*OD probably includes previews?? @JustLurking can you confirm it?

I don't know exactly, but it has to be the case because OD being better than weekend frame in Japan doesn't happen even with the most frontloaded films, which Avatar obviously wasn't.

 

A lotta previews rolled in on that OD for sure I would say.

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2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I don't know exactly, but it has to be the case because OD being better than weekend frame in Japan doesn't happen even with the most frontloaded films, which Avatar obviously wasn't.

 

A lotta previews rolled in on that OD for sure I would say.

Thanks! I happen to have this numbers

 

¥600M / ¥1.31B

¥680M / ¥3.24B

¥640M / ¥4.67B

¥510M / ¥5.93B

¥520M / ¥7.00B

¥620M / ¥8.29B

¥570M / ¥9.64B

¥510M / ¥10.97B

¥400M / ¥11.87B

¥360M / ¥12.60B

¥310M / ¥13.23B

¥260M / ¥13.82B

¥200M / ¥14.27B

¥160M / ¥14.70B

¥130M / ¥15.05B

¥100M / ¥15.26B

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26k admissions at 14:00 means around 52k or so full day usually, would mean somewhere between 105-115k but given how premium skewing this is likely wont play well on rurals, expecting 95-100k full day.

 

saturday and sunday likely play a bit better, let's say 350-400k admits 3days. not sure about atp but this will skew more premium than even top gun+a lot of 3d which is otherwise completely dead in japan.

 

570M-700M range for the 3days is where I would guess. Could be okay over the holidays if theaters keep it on the premiums but it's hard to see this leg out to over 5b even on absolute best case scenario to me. But to be frank I would guess lower for sure as I don't think reception here is exceptional either.

 

Hopefully ends up better than where I have it but not hopeful.

Edited by JustLurking
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Japan seems like such an unpredictable and weird market for a newbie like me. Like yeah A2 will underperform both expectations and the original in most markets, most big markets . But im sure literally no where will it be droping to half of the gross of the original or worse in dom currency (that has inflated since even) . And its a great Box Office year in Japan + Yen inlfation . Seems like some very Japan specific phenomena are in play here. Do sequels underperform more? Are ATP even more crazy than other countries ? Do they hate 3D more ?

Edited by Gkalaitza
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1 minute ago, Gkalaitza said:

Maybe it performing good in other South East Asia countries will pick up some of the slack from the japan drop 

Japan's drop from Original will be more than $100M. SEA doesn't have strength to recover the loss with aggressive ER &that's why Analyst had hope on China to adjust Avatar 2 loss in France, Germany, Japan.... But, condition in China is way so worse that I believe it can't handle the burden of any country's loss.

 

5 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Do sequels underperform more? Are ATP even more crazy than other countries ? Do they hate 3D more ?

Corpse -

>Common precedent of sequels to high performing predecessors declining.
>No novelty factor to bring in casuals. (Seeing films, any film, in 3D was a huge craze in Japan from 2010-2012 until it died.)
>No notable home video sales or TV broadcast ratings for the original. (Suggests audiences were lukewarm to it.)
>13 year wait. (Japan's demographics have changed/aged a good bit since then, pop. decline)
>Disney release. (They're really, really, really struggling in Japan.)

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2 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Japan seems like such an unpredictable and weird market for a newbie like me. Like yeah A2 will underperform both expectations and the original in most markets, most big markets . But im sure literally no where will it be droping to half of the gross of the original or worse in dom currency (that has inflated since even) . And its a great Box Office year in Japan + Yen inlfation . Seems like some very Japan specific phenomena are in play here. Do sequels underperform more? Are ATP even more crazy than other countries ? Do they hate 3D more ?

Sequels have a strong tendency to underperform in JP (i.e. Frozen => Frozen 2) if first film was really big - but mostly JP had never warmed up to Avatar as much as other countries really. Original Avatar grossed only ~60% of the record at the time (less than 50% of current one) compared to contesting records nearly everywhere else, and had mediocre BD sales and tv ratings. There clearly just isn't a lot of hunger in Japan for a sequel with this one coming in so late.

 

Had always been worried about how A2 would do here - though didn't expect quite this bad an OW. Pure weekend will do better but there isn't much getting around the bad opening.

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8 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Japan's drop from Original will be more than $100M. SEA doesn't have strength to recover the loss with aggressive ER &that's why Analyst had hope on China to adjust Avatar 2 loss in France, Germany, Japan.... But, condition in China is way so worse that I believe it can't handle the burden of any country's loss.

 

Corpse -

>Common precedent of sequels to high performing predecessors declining.
>No novelty factor to bring in casuals. (Seeing films, any film, in 3D was a huge craze in Japan from 2010-2012 until it died.)
>No notable home video sales or TV broadcast ratings for the original. (Suggests audiences were lukewarm to it.)
>13 year wait. (Japan's demographics have changed/aged a good bit since then, pop. decline)
>Disney release. (They're really, really, really struggling in Japan.)

Yeah in good market conditions and without the Covid surge and shennanigans going on im sure China would have covered the Europe loss . But now its not happening. The reasons given by Corpse seem enough but to an extent they are true in most markets but it must be that are all truer in Japan than almost anywhere else or else such a immense difference in drops wouldnt come out of nowhere. Also wasnt aware that Avatar didnt do good in BD /DVD sales there interesting

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7 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Yeah in good market conditions and without the Covid surge and shennanigans going on im sure China would have covered the Europe loss . But now its not happening. The reasons given by Corpse seem enough but to an extent they are true in most markets but it must be that are all truer in Japan than almost anywhere else or else such a immense difference in drops wouldnt come out of nowhere. Also wasnt aware that Avatar didnt do good in BD /DVD sales there interesting

Japan is a market that was still wholly dominated by novelty and originals until very recently (well, it still kind of is considering how much of an outlier the demon slayer situation is). Countries moved to franchises ages ago. If there is a market that is going to not show up for a big time-gap sequel, you should probably bet on Japan first. Which I had, so I'm not entirely shocked (not to this extent, but I kind of expected a big underperformance here regardless).

Edited by JustLurking
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On 12/13/2022 at 6:18 PM, Issac Newton said:

2023 10 Billion Yen Contenders

 

Avatar 2 (Disney)

Conan 2023 (Toho)

How do you live (Toho)

Slam Dunk (Toei)

 

2023 5 Billion Yen Contenders

 

Mission Impossible VII (Toho-Towa)

Tokyo Revengers Part I (Toho)

Tokyo Revengers Part II (Toho)

Kingdom 3 (Toho)

Whatttt the hell?? I always thought Avatar 2 will likely be *the highest grossing film of 2023 Japanese Box Office*

 

Everything has broken now.. we need legs to know if it can reach atleast a admirable goal or not

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16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Unless we know if Mimorin is broken, Avatar 2 OD is not even ¥200M? Let along the Weekend (under ¥500M?? for ¥700M OW??)

I just checked and the re-release had a ridicolous 1900-2000 atp or some shit, so I guess probably something like 190-210 even on a more reasonable 1800 atp (but is it even lower if everyone's buying premiums? I could see it just be 2k atp, but let's stay on 1.8k for now).

 

I'm expecting sat and sun to do better than friday so I guess something like 800M 3days (?). Just random guessing here and trying to mix match an expected poor rural locs+ridicolously high atp.

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13 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

 

I'm expecting sat and sun to do better than friday so I guess something like 800M 3days (?). Just random guessing here and trying to mix match an expected poor rural locs+ridicolously high atp.

¥600M OP will bring it par with Original but this is not good at all. Numbers should atleast have exceeded ¥1000M whether for 2/3 days. I am totally frustrated with this performance. Last hope is now only on legs 

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6 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

¥600M OP will bring it par with Original but this is not good at all. Numbers should atleast have exceeded ¥1000M whether for 2/3 days. I am totally frustrated with this performance. Last hope is now only on legs 

The thing is - this is actually selling next to nothing outside premiums as far as I can see. Japan has like 40 imax theaters nationwide. You do the math :sparta:

 

Frankly if it wants to leg out decently it really needs to hope the premium theaters keep it on a good chunk of those screens, in which case it might just do...ok, somewhat. Because every non-premium theater is going to cut this out massively, but that seems irrelevant to me at this point because it's selling like shit on those anyway.

 

And thinking again about what I said about rurals, 800M 3-days is probably too optimistic - I doubt this got 100k nationwide...but whatever. Let's just see what dumb share/atp this comes out to.

Edited by JustLurking
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Currently has 41 IMAX Screens. IMAX International targetted to increase number to 100 by 2024 but I don't see it happening in either ways

 

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Frankly if it wants to leg out decently it really needs to hope the premium theaters keep it on a good chunk of those screens, in which case it might just do...ok, somewhat. Because every non-premium theater is going to cut this out massively.

One thing I did understand that Visuals of film should not be that good that outside the premium formats, the film sales are just null

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