JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

People are quick to judge WOM based on some metrics but i don't think those tell you the whole picture.

Critics sites has given a good rating 4/5 and Eiga.com has it at 4.2 but audiences rating aren't good at all (3.7)

 

Critics can't along help a film grow in numbers we need audience for those numbers to grow

[Gkalaitza]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

So, likely no Imported Works will exceed ¥10B this year.

 

1. Suzume's Locking-Up (TOHO- ¥15B)

2. How Do You Live? (TOHO - ¥10B)

3. Conan 2023 (No hopes by TOHO but should happen)

4. SLAM DUNK (Toei - ¥10B / We - ¥6B-¥7B)

 

I think Miyazaki's next movie will do better than that. It will have the ghibli stylistic appeal but also do something new and fresh with stacked AF staff as far as i know. Also it seems like it will be a better "family movie" and more rewatchable and for all ages than The Wind Rises. Also the market seems to be even better for anime movies + Yen inflation.  I'd bet it should be able to do over 15b .Its not like he is less of a houshold name or that the demographic changes will hurt Miyazaki films

[Issac Newton]

25 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Is A2 even looking at half of A1 in yen? Would be about ¥7.7B I believe?

 

 

20 minutes ago, LPLC said:

So it will drop from $175M to $35M ... It hurts - $140M

まずは興行収入 50億円～70億円が必達の目標と言えるのではないでしょうか。

 

¥5B-¥7B is the current goal - $36.6M-$51.20M

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

I think Miyazaki's next movie will do better than that. It will have the ghibli stylistic appeal but also do something new and fresh with stacked AF staff as far as i know. Also it seems like it will be a better "family movie" and more rewatchable and for all ages than The Wind Rises. Also the market seems to be even better for anime movies + Yen inflation.  I'd bet it should be able to do over 15b .Its not like he is less of a houshold name or that the demographic changes will hurt Miyazaki films

Well, I didn't add any of my expectations but Distributor Target (meaning they will do anything like admission privileges to reach that number) other than Conan 2023. 

 

I am expecting his last film to do insane numbers but currently we don't have any idea about the project so till then I am keeping my mouth shut.

[Royce]

1 hour ago, Gkalaitza said:

I think Miyazaki's next movie will do better than that. It will have the ghibli stylistic appeal but also do something new and fresh with stacked AF staff as far as i know. Also it seems like it will be a better "family movie" and more rewatchable and for all ages than The Wind Rises. Also the market seems to be even better for anime movies + Yen inflation.  I'd bet it should be able to do over 15b .Its not like he is less of a houshold name or that the demographic changes will hurt Miyazaki films

I agree, there's been a resurgence of nostalgia for Miyazaki movies during the pandemic where people have been seeking comfort and escapism and it's been 14 years since the last family-friendly fantasy Miyazaki movie. But yeah it will still depend if the movie will be good or not. I'm still down from my disappointment with Avatar 2 (as a movie, not the box office numbers).

[Nero]

Who's from Japan here?

[Gkalaitza]

4 minutes ago, Royce said:

I agree, there's been a resurgence of nostalgia for Miyazaki movies during the pandemic where people have been seeking comfort and escapism and it's been 14 years since the last family-friendly fantasy Miyazaki movie. But yeah it will still depend if the movie will be good or not. I'm still down from my disappointment with Avatar 2 (as a movie, not the box office numbers).

Well Miyazaki has done a lot of work and hasnt missed yet (in the eyes of the GA at least) so i think its safe to expect a great movie

[JustLurking]

4 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Is A2 even looking at half of A1 in yen? Would be about ¥7.7B I believe?

 

I don't think so honestly. The opening is awful in admits because the film is not selling anything outside premiums, and there are few premiums in Japan. With this facing harsh competition over the holidays in Japan it's hard for me to see it make it there.

 

Like, in theory as long as theaters are allowing it to stay on the premiums over the holidays (which I think they might, at the very least IMAX, if anything because pulling it off those will nuke the film whereas Suzume and Slam Dunk are selling well without them anyway) it could leg out well, but if the film can only sell on premiums here it just feels like its audience is too limited for a country with as little IMAX screens as Japan.

 

You could have it as a very optimistic "maybe this legs out over there" goal I guess. Feels like a terribad market for A2, which doesn't shock me (I had warned this might happen a few times), even if it kind of does that it went to this degree of low. It is just kind of a shame that the main OS markets that seem to be underperforming for A2 are also some of the biggest ones.

Edited December 17, 2022 by JustLurking

[shachi86]

5 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Transformers Universe

 

Transformers (2007) - ¥4.01B

Revenge of the Fallen (2009) - ¥2.32B

Dark of the Moon (2011) - ¥4.25B

Age of Extinction (2014) - ¥2.91B

The Last Knight (2017) - ¥1.75B

Bumblebee (2018) - ¥872M

 

Full of ups and downs - how would Rise of the Beasts perform?

 

Bit sad that the only good movie grossed the least!

[Issac Newton]

Season 2 &Movie for 2023!!

 

 

 

 

[JustLurking]

SxF anime is real big - probably 2nd best live+DVR ratings I've seen for an anime (though a very distant second from DS). This is an original anime, but maybe there's 10b potential here. We'll see I guess.

[Issac Newton]

12 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

So, likely no Imported Works will exceed ¥10B this year.

 

1. Suzume's Locking-Up (TOHO- ¥15B)

2. How Do You Live? (TOHO - ¥10B)

3. Conan 2023 (No hopes by TOHO but should happen)

4. SLAM DUNK (Toei - ¥10B / We - ¥6B-¥7B)

So, we are adding another one on this list!. So be a good year better than 2022 (¥215B)

 

[Psylocke]

Man I am loving 2023 Japanese box office potential its gonna be a blast. So effing glad that Anime dominates the Japanese box office. Also anime is getting more popular at the North American box office where I live. I think beside Japan Spy x Family movie will make records hopefully at the North American box office.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Psylocke

[Issac Newton]

6 hours ago, shachi86 said:

 

Bit sad that the only good movie grossed the least!

That's why I am finding it difficult to forecast. Personally, I liked Age of Extinction the most!

[Legion Again]

Any info on whether the SxF movie will be canon or not? I would go for like 6B if not and 10B+ if yes

[Issac Newton]

SUN seems to be 4-way race between SLAM DUNK, Suzume's Locking-Up, Dr. Coto's Clinic &Avatar. Currently, all of them are ranking #1, #2, #3 &#4 respectively! 

 

I believe SUN will pull Avatar at #3 in terms of admits by that's a 50:50 probability depending on SLAM DUNK 3rd Sun drop from 3rd Sat.

 

So, Weekend Debut will probably #3 for Avatar (Japan prefer admits over gross for ranking)

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Any info on whether the SxF movie will be canon or not? I would go for like 6B if not and 10B+ if yes

The SPY x FAMILY movie will feature an original story by Tatsuya Endo, who is also supervising the film alongside creating the original character designs for the new characters that will feature.

 

Non-canon?

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

The SPY x FAMILY movie will feature an original story by Tatsuya Endo, who is also supervising the film alongside creating the original character designs for the new characters that will feature.

 

Non-canon?

Ah yeah, original story is no good. Maybe even under 5B — unless they make it a musical, then 10B is back 😛 

[Psylocke]

So in terms of gross Avatar will be either #1 or #2?

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

Ah yeah, original story is no good. Maybe even under 5B — unless they make it a musical, then 10B is back 😛