JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Corpse]

THR says $20.7 million, but no local source has released anything yet.Inception is a decent comparison because it was released during the summer and had previews. Spider-Man's $20.7 million estimate is $3 million higher than Inception's 2 week total ($17.9 million, went on to gross over $40 million).

[lab276]

The overall weekend is a little weaker than usual (about 10%) because last Sunday movie tickets were 40% off (the first of every month) which resulted in sub 20/25%, and some single digit, drops last weekend.

If that's the case, why don't they do it every Sunday?

[Corpse]

It's only on the first of every month. The first rarely falls on the weekend (once or twice a year), so it's effects are rarely noticeable.I suppose they don't do it every weekend because everyone would avoid going to the movies every other day of the week? It's been discussed for a few years now about whether or not ticket prices should be lowered, but nothing has really happened aside from many types of discounts.

Edited July 10, 2012 by Corpse

[John Marston]

honestly the total in Japan should be higher. But I will wait and see

[Corpse]

1.64 billion yen (about $21 million) has been repored, so THR's $20.7 million was accurate.That's also the second highest two-week total this year.

[Corpse]

And minus previews, it almost tripled it's opening weekend in 7 days with a multiplier of 2.8/2.9 already. That's not uncommon in Japan, but it is an encouraging sign with Summer Break, a Holiday weekend coming up, and Obon Week in August to give it a boost for most of it's run.

[druv10]

And minus previews, it almost tripled it's opening weekend in 7 days with a multiplier of 2.8/2.9 already. That's not uncommon in Japan, but it is an encouraging sign with Summer Break, a Holiday weekend coming up, and Obon Week in August to give it a boost for most of it's run.

So 60M is possible for TASM?

[Corpse]

Minus previews, it's 9-day total is 1.34 billion ($17 million). Most films receive a multiplier of 2.2/2.3 from there, giving it just over 3 billion (almost $40 million). And with previews, that's about 3.5 billion or $45 million.However, legs are stronger in the Summer for many reasons (summer vacation, holidays, etc.) and the 9-day multiplier can reach up to 3 or sometimes a little higher for films that skew younger or towards families. For those reasons, a 9-day multiplier minus previews of 2.7/2.8 should be doable and give it 4 billion ($50 million) or a little higher.My prediction right now is 4.1~4.2 billion ($52 million). That's a big dropoff from the previous Spider-Man films, but thanks to the very weak dollar, it's not too far off in USD. That's lower than Sony was hoping I'm sure, and 5 billion (the blockbuster mark) is pretty doubtful, but it's still alright. And to make it seem better, that's probably gonna be enough to be Hollywood's second biggest film this year (depending on Resident Evil V) behind Mission Impossible IV. Hollywood is having a pretty rough year barely staying above a 30% market share.

Edited July 10, 2012 by Corpse

[Olive]

52M is kina disappointing.

[John Marston]

52M is kina disappointing.

It is, but with holidays and not much competition it could recover. Let's wait and see Edited July 10, 2012 by John Marston

[Corpse]

Official Estimates (OE) for many films were released this past week, so be sure to check them out.

2012 Box Office Charts

As of Sunday, 07/08:

Top Grossing Films (¥1 billion+)

Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor

01 :: ¥5.71 / $72.57 (13.21x) :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 4.51 :: 72 :: Toho

02 :: ¥5.38 / $70.55 (9.39x) :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount

03 :: ¥3.59 / $45.40 (6.50x) :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 3.32 :: OE :: Toho

04 :: ¥3.40 / $43.31 (6.12x) :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.66 :: OE :: Toho

05 :: ¥3.28 / $42.32 (5.21x) :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 2.74 :: OE :: Toho

06 :: ¥3.10 / $40.84 (5.34x) :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.39 :: OE :: Toho

07 :: ¥3.09 / $39.02 (5.40x) :: MIB 3 :: May :: 2.08 :: 45 :: Toho-Towa

08 :: ¥2.51 / $31.27 (8.50x) :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 2.10 :: OE :: Asmik Ace/Toho

09 :: ¥2.40 / $30.36 (5.16x) :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 1.85 :: OE :: Toho

10 :: ¥2.20 / $27.50 (7.00x) :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.76 :: OE :: Toho

11 :: ¥2.14 / $26.96 (5.29x) :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 1.70 :: 51 :: Warner Bros.

12 :: ¥1.96 / $24.49 (6.46x) :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.67 :: TE :: Warner Bros.

13 :: ¥1.90 / $23.74 (6.01x) :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.45 :: OE :: Shochiku

14 :: ¥1.80 / $23.17 (6.49x) :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.40 :: TE :: FOX

15 :: ¥1.71 / $22.01 (5.45x) :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 1.37 :: TE :: Asmik Ace/Toho

16 :: ¥1.70 / $21.98 (6.15x) :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.36 :: OE :: Toho

17 :: ¥1.64 / $20.81 (1.82x) :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 1.12 :: 9 :: Sony

18 :: ¥1.63 / $20.71 (5.21x) :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 1.34 :: 30 :: Toho

19 :: ¥1.56 / $20.04 (3.81x) :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 1.34 :: TE :: TOEI

20 :: ¥1.55 / $20.02 (4.06x) :: Space Brothers :: May :: 1.21 :: TE :: Toho

21 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 (4.01x) :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI

22 :: ¥1.50 / $19.28 (5.13x) :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 1.18 :: OE :: Toho-Towa

23 :: ¥1.47 / $19.11 (10.42x) :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho

24 :: ¥1.45 / $18.92 (6.41x) :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: OE :: Walt Disney

25 :: ¥1.44 / $18.81 (4.79x) :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 1.14 :: 24 :: Toho-Towa

26 :: ¥1.43 / $18.72 (9.47x) :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: TE :: TOEI

27 :: ¥1.39 / $17.87 (8.47x) :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.15 :: TE :: Toho

28 :: ¥1.37 / $17.37 (5.57x) :: Sadako 3D :: May :: .969 :: TE :: Kadokawa Pictures

29 :: ¥1.28 / $15.66 (5.54x) :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: .996 :: TE :: Sony

30 :: ¥1.20 / $15.36 (7.04x) :: Puss in Boots :: Mar. :: .925 :: OE :: Paramount

31 :: ¥1.18 / $15.29 (5.84x) :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 1.01 :: TE :: Toho

32 :: ¥1.14 / $14.81 (9.47x) :: Chronicle of My Mother :: Apr. :: .876 :: TE :: Shochiku

33 :: ¥1.12 / $14.58 (8.11x) :: Inazuma Eleven GO :: Dec '10 :: .926 :: TE :: Toho

34 :: ¥1.09 / $14.13 (4.96x) :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa

35 :: ¥1.03 / $12.70 (5.28x) :: Crayon Shin-chan (2012) :: Apr. :: .963 :: TE :: Toho

36 :: ¥1.03 / $12.67 (5.88x) :: Hugo :: Mar. :: .732 :: TE :: Paramount

37 :: ¥1.02 / $12.65 (5.23x) :: Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friends of the Future :: Mar. :: .881 :: TE :: TOEI

The Amazing Spider-Man debuts inside the Top 20 after just 9 days (previews included).

[JAPANESE FILMS] 68.6% Market Share

01 :: ¥5.71 / $72.57 (13.21x) :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 4.51 :: 72 :: Toho

02 :: ¥3.59 / $45.40 (6.50x) :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 3.32 :: OE :: Toho

03 :: ¥3.40 / $43.31 (6.12x) :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.66 :: OE :: Toho

04 :: ¥3.28 / $42.32 (5.21x) :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 2.74 :: OE :: Toho

05 :: ¥3.10 / $40.84 (5.34x) :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.39 :: OE :: Toho

06 :: ¥2.51 / $31.27 (8.50x) :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 2.09 :: TE :: Asmik Ace/Toho

07 :: ¥2.40 / $30.36 (5.16x) :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 1.85 :: OE :: Toho

08 :: ¥2.20 / $27.50 (7.00x) :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.76 :: OE :: Toho

09 :: ¥1.90 / $23.74 (6.01x) :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.45 :: OE :: Shochiku

10 :: ¥1.71 / $22.01 (5.45x) :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 1.37 :: TE :: Asmik Ace/Toho

11 :: ¥1.70 / $21.98 (6.15x) :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.36 :: OE :: Toho

12 :: ¥1.63 / $20.71 (5.21x) :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 1.34 :: 30 :: Toho

13 :: ¥1.56 / $20.04 (3.81x) :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 1.34 :: TE :: TOEI

14 :: ¥1.55 / $20.02 (4.06x) :: Space Brothers :: May :: 1.21 :: TE :: Toho[

15 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 (4.01x) :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI

16 :: ¥1.47 / $19.11 (10.42x) :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho

17 :: ¥1.43 / $18.72 (9.47x) :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: TE :: TOEI

18 :: ¥1.39 / $17.87 (8.47x) :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.15 :: TE :: Toho

19 :: ¥1.37 / $17.37 (5.57x) :: Sadako 3D :: May :: .969 :: TE :: Kadokawa Pictures

20 :: ¥1.18 / $15.29 (5.84x) :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 1.01 :: TE :: Toho

21 :: ¥1.14 / $14.81 (9.47x) :: Chronicle of My Mother :: Apr. :: .876 :: TE :: Shochiku

22 :: ¥1.12 / $14.58 (8.11x) :: Inazuma Eleven GO :: Dec '10 :: .926 :: TE :: Toho

23 :: ¥1.03 / $12.70 (5.28x) :: Crayon Shin-chan (2012) :: Apr. :: .963 :: TE :: Toho

24 :: ¥1.02 / $12.65 (5.23x) :: Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friends of the Future :: Mar. :: .881 :: TE :: TOEI

[iMPORTED FILMS] 31.4% Market Share

01 ::

¥5.38 / $70.55 (9.39x) :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount

02 :: ¥3.09 / $39.02 (5.40x) :: MIB 3 :: May :: 2.08 :: 45 :: Toho-Towa

03 :: ¥2.14 / $26.96 (5.29x) :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 1.70 :: 51 :: Warner Bros.

04 :: ¥1.96 / $24.49 (6.46x) :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.67 :: TE :: Warner Bros.

05 :: ¥1.80 / $23.17 (6.49x) :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.40 :: TE :: FOX

06 :: ¥1.64 / $20.81 (1.82x) :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 1.12 :: 9 :: Sony

07 :: ¥1.50 / $19.28 (5.13x) :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 1.18 :: OE :: Toho-Towa

08 :: ¥1.45 / $18.92 (6.41x) :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: OE :: Walt Disney

09 :: ¥1.44 / $18.81 (4.79x) :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 1.14 :: 24 :: Toho-Towa

10 :: ¥1.28 / $15.66 (5.54x) :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: .996 :: TE :: Sony

11 :: ¥1.20 / $15.36 (7.04x) :: Puss in Boots :: Mar. :: .925 :: OE :: Paramount

12 :: ¥1.09 / $14.13 (4.96x) :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa

13 :: ¥1.03 / $12.67 (5.88x) :: Hugo :: Mar. :: .732 :: TE :: Paramount

***************************************************************

***************************************************************

Top Opening Weekends (2-Days ONLY, ¥200 million+)

Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor

01 :: ¥901.46 / $11.32 :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 620.79 :: 1,092 :: Sony*

02 :: ¥629.74 / $7.82 :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 540.98 :: 351 :: Toho

03 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho

04 :: ¥573.57 / $7.35 :: MIB 3 :: May :: 372.97 :: 979 :: Toho-Towa

05 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount

06 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho

07 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho

08 :: ¥468.70 / $5.81 :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 351.47 :: 279 :: Toho

09 :: ¥432.55 / $5.40 :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 325.69 :: 304 :: Toho

10 :: ¥410.04 / $5.06 :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentei: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 355.99 :: 292 :: TOEI

11 :: ¥404.53 / $5.05 :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 311.16 :: 571 :: Warner Bros.

12 :: ¥382.32 / $4.87 :: Space Brothers :: May :: 285.34 :: 322 :: Toho

13 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI

14 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku

15 :: ¥314.89 / $3.97 :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 242.92 :: 297 :: Asmik Ace/Toho

16 :: ¥314.70 / $3.96 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho

17 :: ¥313.66 / $3.95 :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 242.82 :: 316 :: Toho

18 :: ¥303.35 / $3.77 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros.

19 :: ¥301.78 / $3.75 :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 234.87 :: 572 :: Toho-Towa

20 :: ¥295.31 / $3.67 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Asmik Ace/Toho

21 :: ¥292.16 / $3.65 :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 237.87 :: 545 :: Toho-Towa

22 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX

23 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho

24 :: ¥246.41 / $3.08 :: Sadako 3D :: May :: 154.15 :: 214 :: Kadakowa Pictures

25 :: ¥230.89 / $2.98 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: 178.36 :: 431 :: Sony

26 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney

27 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa

28 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho

*Includes ¥320.50 / $4.01 :: 194.19 in previews.

[JAPANESE FILMS]

01 ::

¥629.74 / $7.82 :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 540.98 :: 351 :: Toho

02 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho

03 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho

04 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho

05 :: ¥468.70 / $5.81 :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 351.47 :: 279 :: Toho

06 :: ¥432.55 / $5.40 :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 325.69 :: 304 :: Toho

07 :: ¥410.04 / $5.04 :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentei: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 355.99 :: 292 :: TOEI

08 :: ¥382.32 / $4.87 :: Space Brothers :: May :: 285.34 :: 322 :: Toho

09 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI

10 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku

11 :: ¥314.89 / $3.97 :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 242.92 :: 297 :: Asmik Ace/Toho

12 :: ¥314.70 / $3.96 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho

13 :: ¥313.66 / $3.95 :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 242.82 :: 316 :: Toho

14 :: ¥295.31 / $3.67 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Asmik Ace/Toho

15 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho

16 :: ¥246.41 / $3.08 :: Sadako 3D :: May :: 154.15 :: 214 :: Kadakowa Pictures

17 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho

[iMPORTED FILMS]

01 ::

¥901.46 / $11.32 :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 620.79 :: 1,092 :: Sony*

02 :: ¥573.57 / $7.35 :: MIB 3 :: May :: 372.97 :: 979 :: Toho-Towa

03 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount

04 :: ¥404.53 / $5.05 :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 311.16 :: 571 :: Warner Bros.

05 :: ¥303.35 / $3.72 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros.

06 :: ¥301.78 / $3.75 :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 234.87 :: 572 :: Toho-Towa

07 :: ¥292.16 / $3.65 :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 237.87 :: 545 :: Toho-Towa

08 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX

09 :: ¥230.89 / $2.98 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: 178.36 :: 431 :: Sony

10 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney

11 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa

Umizaru and Pokemon will shake up the opening weekend charts this upcoming weekend.

[subscript]-KEY-

New Entry

Indicates a film still in release or being tracked.

Days in Release: TE (Tracking Ends, Awaiting OE/FT) / OE (Official Estimate) / FT (Final Total)[/subscript]

[fmpro]

Come on Japan! Hang in there with spidey..Give us 50 mill +

[druv10]

Hey Corpse, with TASM coming way under your prediction does that bode badly for TA?

[fmpro]

Hey Corpse, with TASM coming way under your prediction does that bode badly for TA?

Lost a bet with that avatar druv?

[druv10]

Lost a bet with that avatar druv?

No, loved Batman as a kid and love Nolan's Batman. I showed love for TA, TASM and now it's Batman's turn.

[CJohn]

Bump

[Olive]

Any forecast for BRAVE?

[Corpse]

Any forecast for BRAVE?

Most are expecting 3 billion ($40 million).

Hey Corpse, with TASM coming way under your prediction does that bode badly for TA?

I doubt they're related, so no.

[Corpse]

July 14-15

Weekend Forecast

1 (new) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥850-900 million ($10.5-11.5 million), Week 1

2 (new) Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) ¥600-650 million ($7.5-8 million), Week 1

3 (1) The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) ¥250-275 million ($3-3.5 million), Week 3

4 (new) Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha The MOVIE 2nd A's (Aniplex) ¥200-225 million ($2.5-3 million), Week 1

5 (new) Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) ¥180-200 million ($2-2.5 million), Week 1

6 (new) Drudgery Train (TOEI) ¥75-80 million ($1 million), Week 1

7 (2) Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) ¥60-65 million ($750-800,000), Week 5

8 (3) Rinjo: The Movie (TOEI) ¥50-55 million ($650-700,000), Week 2

9 (4) Glow of Fireflies (Toho) ¥40-45 million ($500-550,000), Week 6

10 (new) Big Miracle (Toho-Towa) ¥35-40 million ($450-500,000), Week 1

July 14-16

(Umi no Hi "Marine/Ocean Day" 3-Day Weekend)

1 (new) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥1.1-1.3 billion ($14-16 million), Week 1

2 (new) Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) ¥850-900 million ($10.5-11.5 million), Week 1

3 (1) The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) ¥325-350 million ($4-4.5 million), Week 3

4 (new) Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha The MOVIE 2nd A's (Aniplex) ¥275-300 million ($3.5-4 million), Week 1

5 (new) Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) ¥225-250 million ($2.5-3 million), Week 1

And Summer Vacation is finally here (for Japan)!

Umizaru: Brave Hearts is expected to have a slight dropoff from it's predecessor since that one was released in 3D. Umizaru 2 and 3 (despite 3D) opened to nearly identical admissions and gross though, so I'm doubting Umizaru 4 going back to 2D will impact it that much.

Anything over 1 billion yen for the 3-day should lock up a 6 billion yen ($75 million) total and put 7 billion ($80 million+) in play. Umizaru 2 grossed 7.1 billion yen ($57 million) with 5.35 million admissions, while Umizaru 3 grossed 8.04 billion yen ($97 million) on 5.37 million admissions. Very big difference in the exchange rate between 2006 and 2010.

Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo, the 15th Anniversary Pokemon film entry, will open in the same range as it's numerous predecessors and probably achieve 4-5 billion yen ($50-60 million) again this year.

Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha is being released on less than 100 screens, but it's selling out nearly all of it's showtimes as of this morning (a full day in advance). It's looking to post an enormous psa like the Gintama and The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya anime films.

Edited July 13, 2012 by Corpse

[iceroll]

I'm amazed at the consistency of Pokemon.