JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

MFANTIN65, what are your prediction for the golden week? And how much do you think Frozen can earn, 250m?

starting w next weekend april 26th8.5m-9m w 3d bumpapril 29th is the first holiday. I read that a lot people take time off the whole week. Labas would know better there. However the may 3, 4, 5th are on saturday sun mon. In 2008 the calender fell on the same days and both midweeks got a bump. They were smaller movies but both midweeks doubled. Maybe some people are off in the first week, others in the second. Not sure. frozen was up 80%-100% during the two spring break midweeks. Could be up more with adults off too. the weekend of the 3rd normally sees a 20% bump. the following weekend has a steep decline,30-40%, but frozen didnt do that after SBSo here we go5m midweek upcoming takes us to 110m8.5m-9m weekend. I have noticed many movies do up to 5times this weekend in the next 14days11-14m midweek. Holiday 29th. Ladies day 30th. National discount on thur the 1st10-10.5m weekend. Sat sun both holidays9-11m midweek. Mon holiday. Some people are off rest of week. Someone plz confirm7m weekend. End part two of GW45.5-51m for the 16 days encompassing GW155-161m on may 1110-12m week post GW then 10%-15% average weekly declines(could range from 0%-25% - 12.5 mean) take it to the low to mid 200san extended run flattening out at 1-3m for several weeks into summer like ponyo, hmc, avatar SA, titanic is worth another 20m Slightly less than 10% declines after GW gets it to the upper 200s250-300m Edited April 19, 2014 by mfantin65

[Fullbuster]

Omni,many of us here care about CA2,keep that in mind before being disrespectful.

[pepsa]

Omni,many of us here care about CA2,keep that in mind before being disrespectful.

 

Yeah don't mess with our captain!

[mfantin65]

Omni,many of us here care about CA2,keep that in mind before being disrespectful.

Yeah don't mess with our captain!

shooting high with great care and accuracy or not caring at all. We cant help but piss others off while losing sleep at the same time can we omni.

[mfantin65]

GO FROZEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Personally, underestimations have been (or well, they were) a necessity to me. When you can't fall asleep because Despicable Movie 2 just added 1.5M more in China and Frozen got an OS update below your prediction - which puts 1B in jeopardy - then your organism has to adopt some sort of defensive strategy. I got an 'imprinting' on Disney (not the man xD) and I probably won't get another Frozen in my entire life. My library still has Carl Barks and Floyd Gottfredson next to Barush Spinoza and Konrad Lorenz. Can't pay attention to things like accuracy or 'being close' when a movie's performance gets into your blood. Moreover, when I confidently shoot high, the film's actual gross tends to fall under my mark (thought Lego Movie was a lock for 500M and overestimated its trajectory...but in that case I obviously didn't give it a damn). I did that for the domestic singalong release and not only dinner, but even breakfast and lunch went down the wrong pipe.For me, it has often been a matter of being prepared for a possible -though very unlikely - disappointment.It's not like I was completely blind. I remember that after Frozen's OW in Japan, my sister asked me how the movie was doing and I answered that it had a small chance of beating TF3 WW - but I actually told myself it was a done deal.Can't forget our second bet, the first one about Frozen's Japanese gross. You said 110M. Something like "if it doesn't make more than 100M, I'll cut my veins" - and obviously went with 75M!

I think it gets in my veins too. I think I get pissed off when some one says im too high, albeit when im being logical, because that's saying to me it isnt going have "the run" that we wont see again in many years. Anticipating results on Tuesdays in the paper(internet or cable didn't exist) for jaws and star wars were great memories in between school, working 20 hours a week and ducking bricks being thrown at me for fucked up shit I did when n I was a "tween"(term didnt exist back then either).What doesnt kill you... Edited April 19, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

Labas I see a lot of empty seats for other movies. I don't see why they should take anymore from frozen next weekend. Yout think the seats can hold or go up w 150 3D screens. They are going to have to make room for 250,000 seats for TASM2 &RB2 I imagine. Conan should drop to 4 million and less seats. There are many with only 10-20% capacity.TOHOサイト上映25分前販売数：20140419 （00:30 集計）販売数　座席数　回数　作品名63689　128473　374　名探偵コナン２０１４　異次元の狙撃手（スナイパー）43858　102398　345　アナと雪の女王（日本語吹替版）24110　*59188　284　クレヨンしんちゃん２０１４　ガチンコ！逆襲のロボとーちゃん10093　*31498　190　キャプテン・アメリカ　ウィンター・ソルジャー　（字幕版）*9143　*45745　271　クローズＥＸＰＬＯＤＥ *9024　*30158　131　アナと雪の女王（字幕版）*4488　*16444　127　Ｌ・ＤＫ*3303　*17176　105　キャプテン・アメリカ　ウィンター・ソルジャー　（日本語吹替版）*3064　*21363　165　白ゆき姫殺人事件*2691　*15763　*97　ＬＩＦＥ！　（字幕版）*2665　*18738　149　チーム・バチスタＦＩＮＡＬ　ケルベロスの肖像*2247　*17193　122　平成ライダー対昭和ライダー　仮面ライダー大戦スーパー戦隊*2246　**6007　*15　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・字幕版）*2132　*14933　113　映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検隊～*1541　*15443　113　神様のカルテ２if I ever get kidnapped and released in japan i will be able to find my way to Disney land now

Edited April 19, 2014 by mfantin65

[Ray]

Frozen's Saturday haul in Japan has probably propelled it past Return of the King for #7 all-time WW... but has it passed Dark of the Moon for #6 yet?

[mfantin65]

Frozen's Saturday haul in Japan has probably propelled it past Return of the King for #7 all-time WW... but has it passed Dark of the Moon for #6 yet?

passed it by a couple hundred thousand today

[Rsyu]

The next Bom update today should see frozen comfortably take the #6 spot in the all time highest gross list. 

next stop, IM3   If it does reach IM3 territory frozen will have doubled many pre-release WW gross predictions (tangled territory-$600M)

 

As for CA2... I think it will struggle to gross $10m in Japan, especially with spidey being released the following week. This was never a big market for it. 

[LABAS]

Labas I see a lot of empty seats for other movies. I don't see why they should take anymore from frozen next weekend. Yout think the seats can hold or go up w 150 3D screens. They are going to have to make room for 250,000 seats for TASM2 &RB2 I imagine. Conan should drop to 4 million and less seats. There are many with only 10-20% capacity.TOHOサイト上映25分前販売数：20140419 （00:30 集計）販売数　座席数　回数　作品名63689　128473　374　名探偵コナン２０１４　異次元の狙撃手（スナイパー）43858　102398　345　アナと雪の女王（日本語吹替版）24110　*59188　284　クレヨンしんちゃん２０１４　ガチンコ！逆襲のロボとーちゃん10093　*31498　190　キャプテン・アメリカ　ウィンター・ソルジャー　（字幕版）*9143　*45745　271　クローズＥＸＰＬＯＤＥ *9024　*30158　131　アナと雪の女王（字幕版）*4488　*16444　127　Ｌ・ＤＫ*3303　*17176　105　キャプテン・アメリカ　ウィンター・ソルジャー　（日本語吹替版）*3064　*21363　165　白ゆき姫殺人事件*2691　*15763　*97　ＬＩＦＥ！　（字幕版）*2665　*18738　149　チーム・バチスタＦＩＮＡＬ　ケルベロスの肖像*2247　*17193　122　平成ライダー対昭和ライダー　仮面ライダー大戦スーパー戦隊*2246　**6007　*15　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・字幕版）*2132　*14933　113　映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検隊～*1541　*15443　113　神様のカルテ２if I ever get kidnapped and released in japan i will be able to find my way to Disney land now

As far as I know, the cinemas have signed the contract withthe movie company such as Disney or Warner or any local ones. Sometimes, the movie such as Conan is presented by Toho or other cinema system. So, the showtimes and seats are guaranteed to some extent. This is quite different from the business model in China, where very strong movie can even get more than 50% seats in its OW.

[mfantin65]

I figured out GW. Pretty much everyone takes off the whole week thru the following monday or tuesday. That could be 16m+ midweek starting the 28th hopefully surpassing the biggest SB week .SA and ponyo had 25m holiday weeks later in the run. The table is set for 25m+

Edited April 20, 2014 by mfantin65

[LABAS]

This is part of Sunday morning presale. 

○ = 50% sold

△= 80% sold

x =  sold out

 

Theater  Title Seats   Time  

 

秋田　  Conan（117）　1010○日劇1　Frozen（944）　1135○日本橋　Frozen（404）　1200△　1240（226）○　1430△　1510（226）○　　　　CA2   （143）　1220○　1515○六本木　CA2 （265）　1530○　　　　Frozen（369）　1455△　　　　　渋谷　　Conan（234）　1215×　1445×　1715△　　　　CA2 (215）　1330○　　　　Frozen（297）　1040×　1315×　1550×　1725（154）△　1820△西新井　Conan（410）　1200○　　　　　　　Frozen（345）　1100△　1300（148）△　1400（183）△府中　Conan（499）　1135○　1405○　　　　 Frozen（233）　1055（234席）△　1215△　1325（234席）△　1445△錦糸町　 Conan （223）　1000×　1220（450席）△　1500（450席）○　　　　Frozen （223）　1230×　1510△

[mfantin65]

Sure.

And one I haven't posted before (weekly grosses as a line graph):

Overall, it looks optimistic but quite plausible.

TY. Here is how Golden week looks and a few weeks after on the chart after this incredible hold. we'll see how plausible it is on next saturdays number, that's the big one. Edited April 20, 2014 by mfantin65

[Dalek]

I have a life full of data. Stop watching tv so much and open a book. Not just my perception and those of my elders. Much has been written. Try reading Jared Diamond first and get back to me.misogyny? Please. Women are more cautious than men. Statistically true. Thats why their insurance rates are cheaper. I said nothing about women. Pussy is a derogatory word aimed at cautious males. Get over it see you next tuesday

 

You most certainly said something about women. Using "pussy" as a derogatory term is inherently misogynistic. It claims that a person is feminine, and that that's a bad thing. It only makes sense in a mindset that places being male as inherently superior to being female. If you truly believe that genders are equal, then implying that a member of one is like another is nonsensical, as derogatory terms only function as such when comparing two things of unequal value.

 

from "guns germs and steel." Jared diamond phd. 40 years of research. I read this back before your balls dropped when you were watching lion king for the 80th time instead of learning how to use a hammer.here's some fucking data.Besides the genetic reason there is also a second reason why New Guineans may have come to be smarter than Westerners. modern European and American children spend much of the time being passively entertained by radio television and movies. in the average American household the TV is on for 7 hours per day. In contrast traditional New Guinea children have virtually no such opportunities for passive entertainment, instead spend almost all of their waking hours doing something, such as talking or playing with other children or adults. almost all studies of child development emphasize the role of childhood stimulation and activity in promoting mental development and stress irreversible mental stunting associated with reduced childhood stimulation. This effect shortly contributes a non genetic component to the superior average mental function displayed by New Guineans. That is, in mental ability New Guineans are probably genetically superior to Westerners and they surely are superior in escaping the devastating developmental disadvantages under which most children in industrialized societies now grow up.translation: your a fucking retard compared to my generation, my fathers and all the ones going back to Paleolithic which we are able to study in the modern hunter gatherers of new guinea. I dont say anything without the data.

 

First of all, for someone who doesn't say anything without the data, you've done a wonderful job of assuming what generation I belong to without any data. So good job there. That's not even mentioning the blatant falsehoods about the fall of the Roman Empire, which was not particularly decadent at the time of it's fall, and was brought down by a social and technological equal.

 

Secondly, you've done a nice job moving the goalposts, but let's actually address what we were talking about, not a vaguely related topic that you happen to have information handy for, shall we? Your original complaint was about pampering and feelings of entitlement. Your GG&S quote doesn't actually have anything to say on that. It's all about passive vs. active entertainment (which could be connected to a pampering culture, but isn't inherently so; it's properly a property of a wealthy culture, which is not the same thing), with a side order of New Guinean genetic superiority (which isn't relevant to the topic at hand). Perhaps I should have specified you need relevant data, because the price of tea in China has nothing to do with this.

[mfantin65]

You most certainly said something about women. Using "pussy" as a derogatory term is inherently misogynistic. It claims that a person is feminine, and that that's a bad thing. It only makes sense in a mindset that places being male as inherently superior to being female. If you truly believe that genders are equal, then implying that a member of one is like another is nonsensical, as derogatory terms only function as such when comparing two things of unequal value.First of all, for someone who doesn't say anything without the data, you've done a wonderful job of assuming what generation I belong to without any data. So good job there. That's not even mentioning the blatant falsehoods about the fall of the Roman Empire, which was not particularly decadent at the time of it's fall, and was brought down by a social and technological equal.Secondly, you've done a nice job moving the goalposts, but let's actually address what we were talking about, not a vaguely related topic that you happen to have information handy for, shall we? Your original complaint was about pampering and feelings of entitlement. Your GG&S quote doesn't actually have anything to say on that. It's all about passive vs. active entertainment (which could be connected to a pampering culture, but isn't inherently so; it's properly a property of a wealthy culture, which is not the same thing), with a side order of New Guinean genetic superiority (which isn't relevant to the topic at hand). Perhaps I should have specified you need relevant data, because the price of tea in China has nothing to do with this.

are you done? Move on. On second thought, do you watch game of thrones or any Jason Statham movies? Edited April 20, 2014 by mfantin65

[Rsyu]

Corpse:And like yesterday, here is how Detective Conan and Frozen are comparing to one another as of 11AM at five popular Toho Cinemas in the nation:Tickets Sold (as of 11AM) / Tickets Available (%) Kinshicho:1,109/2,114 (52.4%) - Frozen1,073/1,569 (68.3%) - Detective ConanShibuya:1,325/1,639 (80.8%) - Frozen983/1,170 (84.0%) - Detective ConanEbina:1,525/3,780 (40.3%) - Detective Conan1,032/1,804 (57.2%) - FrozenUmeda:1,609/4,195 (38.3%) - Detective Conan969/2,839 (34.1%) - FrozenNishinomiya:1,547/3,004 (51.5%) - Frozen1,398/1,798 (77.8%) - Detective ConanOverall (as of 11AM):6,588/12,512 (52.6%) - Detective Conan5,982/11,400 (52.5%) - FrozenVs. Yesterday:Overall (as of 11AM):6,441/14,306 (45.0%) - Detective Conan4,586/11,221 (40.8%) - FrozenClose, close, close. Both films have already sold over 50% of the available tickets for the day from these five locations before noon.

[Dalek]

are you done? Move on.On second thought, do you watch game of thrones or any Jason Statham movies?

 

Game of Thrones? No, I don't watch tv, if I think I'll like a show I'll just buy it on disk (still nostalgic for physical media). In this case, I'd rather read the books, but I'm waiting to make sure A Song of Ice and Fire doesn't go the way of Wheel of Time. Jason Statham hasn't been in much (anything, really) that pings my interest.

[LABAS]

TOHO

 

Conan: 42126

 

Frozen : 38683  ~~outperforms last Sunday ( 38584) !

[Rsyu]

TOHO

 

Conan: 42126

 

Frozen : 38683  ~~outperforms last Sunday ( 38584) !

 

An exceptional performance by both films! Frozen is set to outgross the OW yet again this weekend and conan is set for it's biggest ever OW. I can only imagine the two films rather than hurting each other, are actually getting more people to the theatres and they're dually benefiting from it. With a number of sellouts still happening, I can see this will also help some of the smaller films too. All round great weekend for Japan Box office

[LABAS]

109

 

Conan 8831

Frozen 9601

 

 

Kinezo

 

Conan 7601

 

Frozen 9023

 

Frozen won in other cinemas...larger difference than yesterday