JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Omni]

TOHO

 

Frozen 68963

 

Conan  68875

 

Frozen wins and outperforms last Sunday

Frozen won by 88 admissions? Delicious!!!

 

With this unexpected hold what do y'all think its going to do? You know what I think. Im just curious I will make no comments.

Ok omni, n light of this weekend we know we have a once many years event. You've been transported back in time to 1960 Soviet union. Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev the ruthless leader at that time loves disney films just like kim jung il. when he visited the states during the height of the Cold War to meet with President Eisenhower he had two requests; one was to meet John Wayne and drink a bottle of vodka and the other was to visit Disneyland. John Wayne replied I'll meet with the son of a bitch but I'm drinking tequila. John Wayne drank him under the table. he couldn't visit Disneyland because of security reasons.why is it these ruthless dictators want to blow up the United States and the rest of the West but love our icons like the american cowboy and mickey mouse. Anyway the communist party created a machine so he can watch disney films in the future and track box office. he really wants to invade Japan as the Russians have for decades bu het is waiting to see how frozen does there and buy some twist of fate you got sucked back in time thru a boxoffice.com portal and the Japanese people are relying on you. if you're off by more than 5%, Japan will be invaded and you go off to the gulag. Your rations will be 500 calories a day, your fingers will fall off due to frost bite and you will wither away and die a slow painful death over the next three years.

Round 5. Im up 3 to 1. What's your prediction buddy? Final gross. Digestion or Japan? Be bold.

Richard Feyman is with me, prisoner of the URSS, which wants him to invent some sort of quantum bomb for the good of the communist party Soviet people. Instead of that, while the guards are busy watching 101 Dalmatians for the 98th time (a dvd player and some other stuff was transprted back in time as well) he creates a materializer of possible worlds. We then try to reach a world where we can't be transported in the past, where the October Revolution has never happened and where Micheal Bay is a good director. Unfortunately such a world is not possible at all because Bay sucks in every possible world.

Therefore, I'm forced to make a prediction.

 

A 10x multiplier from this weekend and with GW coming should be a very easy thing. So while the fear of something going wrong (other than my meals) would try to make me think that only 150/160M is locked, I'd have to reach the conclusion that predicting sub-180M just sounds stupid. Then I'd think that there must be a maximum gross for every nation, and that, considering Japan's situation, Frozen probably can't get a number of tickets which is higher than 25% of that country's population. Spirited Away likely reached that limit, or got very close to it. So no sub-100M and no over-300M. Safest prediction would then appear to be between 230 and 240 (depending on the Soviets' method to calculate accuracy). A reasonable multiplier would be 15/16x (for an overall 30x). That would put my prediction around 230M. Then I'd try to botch a likely trajectory (118-119M after next weekend // 142 - I honestly don't know what to expect from GW, so I'd just pretend it will be some sort of SB part 2 // 158 - GW over by wednesday, 7M over the weekend // 10x multiplier afterwards, with one or two bad weekend(s) preventing it from getting to 25B yen) and the result would once again be around 230M.

 

I'd go with 225

 

Edit: I'm quite uncomfortable with precise projections outside of domestic box office, though. I prefer considering a possible wide range of 180/300M and a likely range of 200/250...and "where it lands, it lands".

Edited April 20, 2014 by Omni

[BadAtGender]

When I see these numbers in Japan,US and Korea I fail to understand why it wasn't stronger in Europe despite the Scandinavian background of the film.

It was really successful in Europe. I believe it's the biggest animated film of all time in Denmark, for instance.

[Rsyu]

So going on those estimates weekends look like this:

¥763,389,450 ($7.5 million)

¥872,269,400 ($8.6 million) +13%

¥881,212,200 ($8.6 million) +1%

¥850,911,950 ($8.3 million) -3.5%

¥842,035,350 ($8.2 million) -1%

¥862 million ($8.4 million), +03% (estimate)

Definition of legs

Edited April 20, 2014 by Rsyu

[Fullbuster]

It was really successful in Europe. I believe it's the biggest animated film of all time in Denmark, for instance.

I didn't say it was low,good numbers of course but proportionally it was lower than in the US,Japan an Korea.With the US proportions it would be around 80m in France,with the Korean ones it would be around 95m.Actually it reached 42m in France.

[tong kosong]

 

So going on those estimates weekends look like this:

 

¥763,389,450 ($7.5 million)

¥872,269,400 ($8.6 million) +13%

¥881,212,200 ($8.6 million) +1%

¥850,911,950 ($8.3 million) -7%

¥842,035,350 ($8.2 million) -1%

¥862 million ($8.4 million), +03% (estimate)

 

Definition of legs

 

 

It's crazy that the opening weekend is the lowest weekend.

[Fullbuster]

200 pages for the thread,let's party :p300 pages very soon with that pace

[chuck0]

When I see these numbers in Japan,US and Korea I fail to understand why it wasn't stronger in Europe despite the Scandinavian background of the film.

 

It did pretty well in many European markets... though one thing i should note is that the European setting for europeans is basically what they see every day and know. But for countries like Japan this setting is foreign and exotic and therefore probably a bit more interesting.

 

btw, thats one of my posts from January

 

I have been thinking about what kind of impact to expect from japan and i have the feeling that many themes in the movie will resonate extremely strongly with the gp there. Though i mostly know about japanese culture secondhand i believe things like sacrifice for the good of others, being persistent in the face of great odds and the european fairitale setting in general should be bid draws... and as already mentioned by others 1B WW should be pretty safe since SK can make up for china underperforming and as long as japan does not completely bomb (which, as you mentioned should not be the case) everything should work out

 

ppl still feared for 1B WW

Edited April 20, 2014 by chuck0

[catlover]

 

So going on those estimates weekends look like this:

 

¥763,389,450 ($7.5 million)

¥872,269,400 ($8.6 million) +13%

¥881,212,200 ($8.6 million) +1%

¥850,911,950 ($8.3 million) -7%

¥842,035,350 ($8.2 million) -1%

¥862 million ($8.4 million), +03% (estimate)

 

Definition of legs

 

The lowest drop is 7% (and 3.5% in dollar). I mean, what the hell?

[Omni]

The lowest drop is 7% (and 3.5% in dollar). I mean, what the hell?

3.5% in yen too, that 7% is off.

[Rsyu]

3.5% in yen too, that 7% is off.

Fixed. Not sure why that said 7

[Incarnadine]

200 pages for the thread,let's party :P300 pages very soon with that pace

What's amazing is this thread started almost 2 years ago and had 137 pages when Frozen opened, but has jumped 63 more pages (and counting) in the last 2 months since Frozen opened and it's been almost all Frozen related.

[Tower]

When I see these numbers in Japan,US and Korea I fail to understand why it wasn't stronger in Europe despite the Scandinavian background of the film.

 

If you think Europe was bad, over here it made less than half as much as The Smurfs 2... (also making way less than DM2, FF6, We're The Millers etc.)

[mfantin65]

I bumped up weekend 7 due to 3D and sing along release. This projection is with 15% average drops after GW which has yet to materialize in the run. At 10% or less and a 100% hold here or there and it climbs to 300m. The 100% hold this week caused a major ripple effect in the size of numbers down the line.#...............Howl's MC..............................Ponyo.....................................Frozen...................WE......WkTot.......TOT...........WE.....WkTot......TOT..........MW.......WE.....WkTot.....TOT1..13.988...13.998.....13.998.......9.667.....9.667......9.667.....................7.531.....9.731......9.7312..11.680...20.400.....44.430.......7.591...20.700....30.416......11.300...8.550...19.800....29.5353....9.832...21.400.....65.878.......7.210...18.500....48.924......13.400...8.569...22.000....51.5794....9.165...15.400.....81.210.......7.012...18.000....66.966......15.300...8.200...23.500....75.1005....8.100...15.800.....97.000.......7.904...25.300....92.309........7.800...8.200...16.000....90.6006....7.400...15.000...112.000.......5.359...14.200..106.482........5.900...8.300...14.000..104.8007....6.866...13.700...125.703.......4.715.....9.700..116.169........5.800...9.200...15.000..119.800 Adds 3d screensTAMS2 opens.8....6.171...20.100...145.795.......3.496.....8.000..124.186......18.000.10.800...28.800..148.600 GW could triple wk7 tally over next 2 weeks.9....3.367.....8.800...154.556.......2.406.....4.400..128.568........9.000...7.500...16.500..165.10010..3.323.....5.300...159.840.......1.433.....3.800..132.326........5.000...6.600...11.600..176.700 GW over11..2.464.....3.500...163.425.......0.913.....2.500..134.862........4.500...6.000...10.500..187.200 Legs, baby, legs!!12..1.817.....2.800...166.170.......0.750.....4.700..139.589........4.000...5.300.....9.300..196.500 June13..1.812.....4.000...170.218.......0.642.....1.200..140.710........3.200...4.300.....7.500..204.00014..1.219.....2.300...172.561.......0.394.....1.100..141.808........2.900...3.800.....6.700..210.700 Run Forest Run!15..1.090.....1.500...174.104.......0.388.....0.600..142.486........2.500...3.200.....5.700..216.400Extended Run.........190.000........Extended Run...154.000.........Extended Run.............250.000+ !!!!Ponyo and Howl's MC had extended runs like Avatar and Titanic. Maybe Frozen extends well into summer!

Edited April 20, 2014 by mfantin65

[tong kosong]

At least you guys know about how much Frozen made in your country. I don't even have any idea on how much Frozen made in Indonesia.

Edited April 20, 2014 by tong kosong

[mfantin65]

I never imagined Detective Conan would open with more than 800m yen. It had never even exceeded 700m yen on OW before. Crayon Shin-chan is doing way better than usual too. With super strong top 2 and a relatively strong #3 this weekend, I'm wondering how crazy next weekend is gonna be, with 3 more big openers!

26 m weekend is big outside of holiday. next weekend could be 35m. Near the largest ive noticed

[edroger3]

What's amazing is this thread started almost 2 years ago and had 137 pages when Frozen opened, but has jumped 63 more pages (and counting) in the last 2 months since Frozen opened and it's been almost all Frozen related.

In international boxoffice forum Frozen thread has 93 pages. Only The Avengers thread do better with 113, but i think will surpassed soon.

[eXtacy]

Japan is weird when it comes to movies. Enough said

Edited April 20, 2014 by eXtacy

[Fullbuster]

If you think Europe was bad, over here it made less than half as much as The Smurfs 2... (also making way less than DM2, FF6, We're The Millers etc.)

I usually admire Israel for its technological prowess but for Frozen I clearly have to say you have crappy tastes..Frozen behind Smurfs,it's shameful

[Incarnadine]

In international boxoffice forum Frozen thread has 93 pages. Only The Avengers thread do better with 113, but i think will surpassed soon.

I don't know about that. The international Frozen thread has slowed quite a bit as all the action has shifted to the Japan thread since it's the only overseas market making significant $, although Frozen is still hanging on in a few other markets.

[mfantin65]

Frozen won by 88 admissions? Delicious!!!

 

Richard Feyman is with me, prisoner of the URSS, which wants him to invent some sort of quantum bomb for the good of the communist party Soviet people. Instead of that, while the guards are busy watching 101 Dalmatians for the 98th time (a dvd player and some other stuff was transprted back in time as well) he creates a materializer of possible worlds. We then try to reach a world where we can't be transported in the past, where the October Revolution has never happened and where Micheal Bay is a good director. Unfortunately such a world is not possible at all because Bay sucks in every possible world.

Therefore, I'm forced to make a prediction.

 

A 10x multiplier from this weekend and with GW coming should be a very easy thing. So while the fear of something going wrong (other than my meals) would try to make me think that only 150/160M is locked, I'd have to reach the conclusion that predicting sub-180M just sounds stupid. Then I'd think that there must be a maximum gross for every nation, and that, considering Japan's situation, Frozen probably can't get a number of tickets which is higher than 25% of that country's population. Spirited Away likely reached that limit, or got very close to it. So no sub-100M and no over-300M. Safest prediction would then appear to be between 230 and 240 (depending on the Soviets' method to calculate accuracy). A reasonable multiplier would be 15/16x (for an overall 30x). That would put my prediction around 230M. Then I'd try to botch a likely trajectory (118-119M after next weekend // 142 - I honestly don't know what to expect from GW, so I'd just pretend it will be some sort of SB part 2 // 158 - GW over by wednesday, 7M over the weekend // 10x multiplier afterwards, with one or two bad weekend(s) preventing it from getting to 25B yen) and the result would once again be around 230M.

 

I'd go with 225

 

Edit: I'm quite uncomfortable with precise projections outside of domestic box office, though. I prefer considering a possible wide range of 180/300M and a likely range of 200/250...and "where it lands, it lands".

well written, very funny. The communist party gave you +/-5% error. Thats 25m range. They were never that magnanimous with others. Nikita must like you. A range is necessary with this kind of run.

Im hoing w a 16 weekend multiplier after GW(7.5m WE)(170m). This reliant on it netting100 more screens w 3d. I cant see them pulling more that 50 regular for competition after this hold.. then an extended run

300m. Spirited gets put Away

285-315 range. HP7.2 WW#4 possible

never fails.im always 30-40% higher than you. Amazing.