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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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I'm surprised there isn't more noise coming from the Marvel forums. For a long time it looked like IM3 would handily win both domestic and WW crowns for 2013, but CF amazingly increased from THG and took domestic down, and now Frozen is a real threat to knock IM3 down to #2 WW, as well as knocking it out of the top 5 all time list.

Heh I'm a Marvel fan and Frozen fan so no big deal for me. Its a win win situation. But speaking purely as a Marvel fan I guess the reason for no major uproar is that we are preoccupied with the CATWS run. And most of all there's something called Age of Ultron a year away that'll likely knock everything except the top two down a notch. :D
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Corpse:

 

Golden Week is coming up (April 29-May 06), and with it comes:The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (April 25)Thermae Romae II (April 26)Partners the Movie 3 (April 26)The biggest issue is screens and showtimes. Frozen and Detective Conan are going into the week coming off massive weekends, so screen and showtime distribution will be intense.This upcoming weekend is very likely to be the biggest of the year, and so long as none of the openers disappoint and can meet or exceed expectations, this weekend could be the biggest of all-time, too.>Frozen will probably do over ¥700 million and is the most-likely to place 1st, though being in its 7th week, it may be subject to some harsh screen/showtimes cuts this time (especially if it ranked 2nd this weekend behind Conan). It also has the sing-a-long version being released in select theaters this weekend. I doubt it adds that much, but it's worth noting considering the popularity of the songs.>If the estimate for Detective Conan is mostly accurate, then its second weekend could stay above ¥500 million which is nearly as big as the opening weekends of many past films in the franchise.Openers,>The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will open over ¥500 million, maybe ¥600 million+, but the dismal legs of the first film worry me and I think there's little room for improvement. The first film ended up earning less than half of any of the previous Spider-Man films with ¥3.16 billion ($39 million).Biggest threat to Frozen? Screen/Showtime loses.>Thermae Romae II is a wild card. It's either going to be huge, or a disappointment. The first film opened over ¥400 million and went on to finish with almost ¥6 billion ($75 million) delivering incredible legs during May/June (two of the weakest months). It was a major success. But sequels lately haven't been faring too well, despite their predecessor's critical or box-office success. It is expected to open north of ¥500 million, however.Biggest threat to Frozen? Female audiences.>Partners the Movie 3 should be the weakest of the bunch, but could still open over ¥300 or ¥400 million. The last film opened over a 5-day frame, so it's hard to determine what its weekend could have been. Biggest threat to Frozen? Any senior audiences. I'm thinking for now...¥650-750 million ($6.5-7.5 million) - Frozen¥550-650 million ($5.5-6.5 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2¥500-600 million ($5.0-6.0 million) - Thermae Romae II¥475-525 million ($4.7-5.2 million) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension¥300-350 million ($3.0-3.5 million) - Partners the Movie 3

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My point, though, is that even a phenomen can't keep the momentum forever. Yes, Frozen had 5 consecutive steady weekends around 8M, and that's unbelievable. But this kind of awesomeness always starts to vanish at a certain point of even the most incredible movie's run. Avatar is an example: in North America, it almost reached 600M before the end of January, with 12% being its average drop. Coming from a 31M weekend, one could have thought that 800M was locked and 1 billion somehow in play, I mean, why suddenly starting to behave like a simple solid holdover after being a monster for 7 weeks? Well, its legs slowed down in February and then they became completely ordinary (in the best way xD) in March. It doesn't matter how you performed in your first bunch of weeks: if you're a phenomenon, sometimes (likely in the second half of May, in Frozen's case) the time comes for you to stop being 'the movie to see'. Considering Frozen's performance so far, the 10x of those two Miyazaki monsters could even become a 12/13x, but that's it. A post-GW multiplier above 15x would, for my eyes, be even more shocking than its performance so far.It would mean an overall multiplier above 30x and momentum kept for months. There are rules that even Frozen will have to follow.

avatar in part was a 3d phenom. It lost most its screen to AIW in march another, in part 3d phenom. First two 3d movies out of the gate and 3d became a big success until people realized they got instant ADD.There was anticipation with the Miyazaki's monster. A little front loaded for japan and as I said had steady declines from the beginning. We need to see the SA weekends. Anyone have them? No movie has held flat like this in a long time. Take a look at ET on bom. Frozen is best mirroring that right now and it didn't drop later on. I say this runs like that, percentage drop wise. Im going to pull ponyo out of the showdown, that fish is fried. I want to put SA and et in Edited by mfantin65
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Corpse:

 

¥650-750 million ($6.5-7.5 million) - Frozen¥550-650 million ($5.5-6.5 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2¥500-600 million ($5.0-6.0 million) - Thermae Romae II¥475-525 million ($4.7-5.2 million) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension¥300-350 million ($3.0-3.5 million) - Partners the Movie 3

 

exciting weekend !! can't wait 

Edited by rhfqkddl45
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Quote from BoxOfficeMojo's weekend report:

 

"Frozen hit what's likely to be its final milestone this weekend. The movie held first place in Japan for the sixth-straight weekend, and has now earned an incredible $104.1 million there. In the process, it passed The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Transformers: Dark of the Moon to move up to sixth place on the all-time worldwide chart. It's also now the highest-grossing animated movie overseas with $729.3 million." 

 

Why does Ray Subers and co. keep doing this to themselves? First, BOM grossly underpredicted the domestic take back in November even by the normal standard (which almost all ended up having huge margins of error anyway) but their's was particularly bad (didn't even have it beating Wreck-It-Ralph). Then on the holiday wrap-up/grading they basically just dismissed Frozen's run as a complete fluke. All of that could be forgiven since indeed Frozen's success did to some degree seem to "come out of nowhere". However, It's abundantly clear at this point that Frozen is a fully fledged global phenomenon that has yet to fall beneath it's OW in Japan and yet here they are essentially throwing away the possibility of it passing IM3 when that scenario seems more and more likely by the day. 

Edited by Kingslayer
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Yo corpse. You didn't mention 3d expansion. Labas read something about 150 dubbed 3d screens. Is that factored in? Whats your intel on that? I m thinking seat hold w 3d screens added.6.5-7.5m? You said that the last 2 weeks and we went 8.2 and 8.4. Im kind of thinking 9m+. Monday a vacation day. Sunday evening pop added on top too. Do you have spirited away weekend numbers?

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Quote from BoxOfficeMojo's weekend report:

 

"Frozen hit what's likely to be its final milestone this weekend. The movie held first place in Japan for the sixth-straight weekend, and has now earned an incredible $104.1 million there. In the process, it passed The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Transformers: Dark of the Moon to move up to sixth place on the all-time worldwide chart. It's also now the highest-grossing animated movie overseas with $729.3 million." 

 

Why does Ray Subers and co. keep doing this to themselves? First, BOM grossly underpredicted the domestic take back in November even by the normal standard (which almost all ended up had huge margins of error anyway) but their's was particularly bad (didn't even have it beating Wreck-It-Ralph). Then on the holiday wrap-up/grading they basically just dismissed Frozen's run as a complete fluke. All of that could be forgiven since indeed Frozen's success did to some degree seem to "come out of nowhere". However, It's abundantly clear at this point that Frozen is a fully fledged global phenomenon that has yet to fall beneath it's OW in Japan and yet here they are essentially throwing away the possibility of it passing IM3 when that scenario seems more and more likely by the day. 

 

I guess they dont read this thread ;)

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I guess they dont read this thread ;)

 

So it would seem :P It should be obvious to almost anyone in the BO game that just based on this weekend's number alone Japan will at least give Frozen a viable run for IM3 and potentially beyond.

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Quote from BoxOfficeMojo's weekend report:

"Frozen hit what's likely to be its final milestone this weekend. The movie held first place in Japan for the sixth-straight weekend, and has now earned an incredible $104.1 million there. In the process, it passed The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Transformers: Dark of the Moon to move up to sixth place on the all-time worldwide chart. It's also now the highest-grossing animated movie overseas with $729.3 million."

Why does Ray Subers and co. keep doing this to themselves? First, BOM grossly underpredicted the domestic take back in November even by the normal standard (which almost all ended up had huge margins of error anyway) but their's was particularly bad (didn't even have it beating Wreck-It-Ralph). Then on the holiday wrap-up/grading they basically just dismissed Frozen's run as a complete fluke. All of that could be forgiven since indeed Frozen's success did to some degree seem to "come out of nowhere". However, It's abundantly clear at this point that Frozen is a fully fledged global phenomenon that has yet to fall beneath it's OW in Japan and yet here they are essentially throwing away the possibility of it passing IM3 when that scenario seems more and more likely by the day.

I bet a lot of you people wrote him pissed emails when he overstated one time. He is always under the radar. He must get the disappointment thing and plays it safe. He never uses "will". A movie could be at 99m w a 2m weekend and he says could or should break 100m this week. See, all this talk of disappointment leads to bad reporting :P I've thought of writing him after some idiotic prediction/statement. He mite be more journalist, less statistician.

the sun should rise a few hours from now, after it set a few hours ago, allegedly

Edited by mfantin65
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So it would seem :P It should be obvious to almost anyone in the BO game that just based on this weekend's number alone Japan will at least give Frozen a viable run for IM3 and potentially beyond.

 

The number they probably have is that (probably underestimated) 7.5M so they assume that Frozens decline has started. But yeah, even with that in mind not even mentioning IM3 is pretty weak on their side :)

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I got inspired to write him finally.Ray. Do you look at the data or just write about it. Frozen hit its last milestone? Far from it. its a lock to pass Iron Man 3 for number 5 world wide. look at the data below. if it doesn't come in over 200 million in japan, I'll fly out to LA and blow you. you need to rewrite that little statement.Thx

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I dont know if this was posted but I asked corpse about frozen hitting SA numbers in dollars and he dismissed it bcos of weak weekdays which are more important than weekends for long period of time.

 

 

It's not doing over $244 million.  It's tracking over 20% behind Spirited Away after 6 weeks despite its weekend business being so strong each week.  Spirited Away's weekends are still bigger, and its weekdays are much, much bigger.  It'll also still be tracking behind Howl's Moving Castle and Ponyo after 6 weeks, and the former hasn't had any holiday support yet.
 
It doesn't have the weekday support, which is more important than weekends.  It'll require a gross of at least ¥25 billion, more than double what its 8 week total will probably be.
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Yo corpse. You didn't mention 3d expansion. Labas read something about 150 dubbed 3d screens. Is that factored in? Whats your intel on that? I m thinking seat hold w 3d screens added.6.5-7.5m? You said that the last 2 weeks and we went 8.2 and 8.4. Im kind of thinking 9m+. Monday a vacation day. Sunday evening pop added on top too.Do you have spirited away weekend numbers?

Yes, but Disney has not made public the list of 3D Dubbed screens so far, perhaps they are vying for screens with other movies ?

But Disney has announced the Singalong screens....around 90.

Many people think it is a bold move, because most Japanese keep silent while watching movies, even with kids.

People are wondering if they dare to "let it go " their passion for these songs in the theaters...and 90 screens is really something

looks like a high-risk bet...

Now, in the Japanese forum, people are also talking about how much impact will 3D Dubbed have on the BO...

More 3D means higher avg ticket price but also higher risks...unless people really really love Frozen (Unlike other markets, 3D in Japan is losing popularity ).

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I dont know if this was posted but I asked corpse about frozen hitting SA numbers in dollars and he dismissed it bcos of weak weekdays which are more important than weekends for long period of time.It doesn't have the weekday support, which is more important than weekends. It'll require a gross of at least ¥25 billion, more than double what its 8 week total will probably be.

He is obviously a miyazaki fan and a frozen hater. Keeps underpredicting like an alcohol in denial, "I only had two drinks". He admitted yesterday that he was being a downer. He is looking glass half full. When you do that you see emptiness. those movies were in December and summer. 6m is a great midweek outside of those times. The last two midweeks were 73% of the forward weekend. If the weekend dropped like HMC they would be 90-100% of the weekend. Once HMC/Ponyo were out of holiday/summer their midweeks were 60-100%, again 100% was reached because the forward weekend dropped significantly. This is why I dont watch the news. Politicians make up this shit too. If frozen was in summer it would be having 15m-20m midweeks considering what it did SB. Kicking the shit out of ponyo. I"Statistics dont lie, statisticians do" mark twain Edited by mfantin65
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