JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[chasmmi]

I am more surprised is that Rsyu sumed all of those numbers. wow! you have my respect!  

He's Korean, that's what they do

[mfantin65]

I bumped up weekend 7 due to 3D and sing along release. This projection is with 15% average drops after GW which has yet to materialize in the run. At 10% or less and a 100% hold here or there and it climbs to 300m. The 100% hold this week caused a major ripple effect in the size of numbers down the line.#...............Howl's MC..............................Ponyo.....................................Frozen...................WE......WkTot.......TOT...........WE.....WkTot......TOT..........MW.......WE.....WkTot.....TOT1..13.988...13.998.....13.998.......9.667.....9.667......9.667.....................7.531.....9.731......9.7312..11.680...20.400.....44.430.......7.591...20.700....30.416......11.300...8.550...19.800....29.5353....9.832...21.400.....65.878.......7.210...18.500....48.924......13.400...8.569...22.000....51.5794....9.165...15.400.....81.210.......7.012...18.000....66.966......15.300...8.200...23.500....75.1005....8.100...15.800.....97.000.......7.904...25.300....92.309........7.800...8.200...16.000....90.6006....7.400...15.000...112.000.......5.359...14.200..106.482........5.900...8.300...14.000..104.8007....6.866...13.700...125.703.......4.715.....9.700..116.169........5.800...9.200...15.000..119.800 Adds 3d screensTAMS2 opens.8....6.171...20.100...145.795.......3.496.....8.000..124.186......18.000.10.800...28.800..148.600 GW could triple wk7 tally over next 2 weeks.9....3.367.....8.800...154.556.......2.406.....4.400..128.568........9.000...7.500...16.500..165.10010..3.323.....5.300...159.840.......1.433.....3.800..132.326........5.000...6.600...11.600..176.700 GW over11..2.464.....3.500...163.425.......0.913.....2.500..134.862........4.500...6.000...10.500..187.200 Legs, baby, legs!!12..1.817.....2.800...166.170.......0.750.....4.700..139.589........4.000...5.300.....9.300..196.500 June13..1.812.....4.000...170.218.......0.642.....1.200..140.710........3.200...4.300.....7.500..204.00014..1.219.....2.300...172.561.......0.394.....1.100..141.808........2.900...3.800.....6.700..210.700 Run Forest Run!15..1.090.....1.500...174.104.......0.388.....0.600..142.486........2.500...3.200.....5.700..216.400Extended Run.........190.000........Extended Run...154.000.........Extended Run.............250.000+ !!!!Ponyo and Howl's MC had extended runs like Avatar and Titanic. Maybe Frozen extends well into summer!

here is 15 weeks of data comparison. Mojo had weekend 5&6 missing for HMC, I guessed there.frozen is going to go up thru howls ass and out the turret in the next 3 weeks Edited April 21, 2014 by mfantin65

[Hider]

World of KJ. The forum where Corpse does most of his posting etc. 

 

So, there they have some data that MOJO doesn't include?

[Rsyu]

here is 15 weeks of data comparison. Mojo had weekend 5&6 missing, I guessed there.

 

post GW hold is critical to your projections I'm thinking.

 

So, there they have some data that MOJO doesn't include?

 

Yeah Corpse is a jedi master when it comes to the Japanese BO. can't believe he isnt japanese 

[mfantin65]

post GW hold is critical to your projections I'm thinking.Yeah Corpse is a jedi master when it comes to the Japanese BO. can't believe he isnt japanese

amazing hold post SB then 2 weekend increases. Its critical but likely it holds well w that track record. Edited April 21, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

No idea. ¥15b seems like a good goal. That's almost twice what I was predicting (~¥8b) but still half of Spirited Away.

15b? Have you seen the data? Well, good luck. I think you'll be closer if you double up one more time Edited April 21, 2014 by mfantin65

[lab276]

15b? Have you seen the data? Well, good luck. I think you'll be closer if you double up one more time

Yeah, it's almost 5b from Spirited Away after 6 weeks and SA didn't just stop after summer, it made another 15b in fact. It will not reach 30b.

[mfantin65]

109 up 25% from last mondayFrozen 3097Conan 2613

Edited April 21, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

1.1m day106m totProjection7.0m midweek increase based on superb monday number, much better than last tues wed which should fall in line.9.2m weekend to be revised once labas procures seat countConan beat by 12%Looks like frozen has excellent midweek support

Edited April 21, 2014 by mfantin65

[Murgatroyd]

 

 

 

Unless the world ends before next Sunday, beating The Wind Rises is a done deal.  Ponyo is very likely, and barring a post-Golden Week crash, Howl seems more likely than not.  Spirited Away is not happening.

 

*If you're comparing these to my previous graphs, note that I've corrected a few errors in my data for Howl and Spirited Away.

[druv10]

post GW hold is critical to your projections I'm thinking.

 

 

Yeah Corpse is a jedi master when it comes to the Japanese BO. can't believe he isnt japanese 

 

He's Japanese, He just doesn't live in Japan. 

[LABAS]

Afternoon.................... M ........T..........W .........T.......... F ........ S ......... SFirst............................................................18517--29035--38186Second......9396--10976--21854--12231--33278--32340--39828Third........14958--19027--46478--25446--21273--29380--44173Fourth......25661--41430--43550--25701--22309--28912--39206Fifth.........11969----6527--15260---4465----3965--25002---38584Sixth.......... 8552----3795---12728--3642---4167--23857---38683

Seventh......6919

Evening................... M ........ T ........ W ........ T ......... F ........ S ........ SFirst............................................................49224--58491--64414Second... 19967--21651--43281--26963--68297--67663--72506Third .......28363--34679--83765--40795--37218--58906--80440Fourth......40807--69958--74515--39964--38667--61448--67696Fifth.........22202--15224--35286--11375---13861--57650--67869Sixth........20665---10206--31370--10066---14085---56681---68963

Seventh----14202

[LABAS]

So far, I read the Japanese forum and see some screen schedules this weekend.

Roughly speaking,  the biggest screen goes to Roman Bath , followed by Conan and Frozen comes in third.

Although Frozen has more screens, it looks like Frozen seats will be cut at least 30% .

Hope there will be good news.

[Rsyu]

I really see no reason why Frozen should get less seats than Conan...

Thermae Romae II is a female orientated film so it could be frozen's biggest challenger this weekend. 

[cremino]

So far, I read the Japanese forum and see some screen schedules this weekend.

Roughly speaking,  the biggest screen goes to Roman Bath , followed by Conan and Frozen comes in third.

Although Frozen has more screens, it looks like Frozen seats will be cut at least 30% .

Hope there will be good news.

And Spider Man??

[LABAS]

And Spider Man??

It seems Spider also gets medium - small screen...

[LABAS]

I really see no reason why Frozen should get less seats than Conan...

Thermae Romae II is a female orientated film so it could be frozen's biggest challenger this weekend. 

It is quite simple. It is a local new movie, and it is issued by TOHO.

BTW, in the Japanese website, Conan is the weekend winner because it has the most audience on 4.19~4.20.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Top 25 Opening Weekends [Animated Features]Rank - Weekend Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [screen Count] - Film (Release Date)01. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448] :: Howl's Moving Castle (Nov '04)02. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300] :: One Piece Film Z (Dec '12)03. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223] :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov '12)04. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec '09)05. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481] :: Ponyo (July '08)06. ¥1.010 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318] :: Spirited Away (July '01)07. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,190 [530] :: Toy Story 3 (July '10)08. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 [454] :: The Wind Rises (July '13)09. ¥907.4 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435] :: Tales from Earthsea (July '06)10. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654] :: Finding Nemo (Dec '03)11. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447] :: Arrietty (July '10)12. ¥847.5 million ($8.4 million) / 614,969 [661] :: Monsters University (July '13)13. ¥789.3 million ($7.8 million) / 649,865 [341] :: Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Apr '14)14. ¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351] :: Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (July '07)15. ¥763.4 million ($7.5 million) / 602,347 [598] :: Frozen (Mar '14)16. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689] :: The Incredibles (Dec '04)17. ¥715.0 million ($6.1 million) / 540,000 [260] :: Princess Mononoke (July '97)18. ¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 [359] :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (July '08)19. ¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 [312] :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Mar '13)20. ¥672.6 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 [366] :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (July '09)21. ¥671.5 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344] :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Apr '13)22. ¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 [353] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Mar '13)23. ¥649.8 million ($6.4 million) / 539,132 [329] :: Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (Dec '13)24. ¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 540,975 [351] :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Apr '12)25. ¥629.5 million ($7.2 million) / 600,602 [369] :: Pokemon D&P: Zoroark - Master of Illusion (July '10)

[Rsyu]

It is quite simple. It is a local new movie, and it is issued by TOHO.

BTW, in the Japanese website, Conan is the weekend winner because it has the most audience on 4.19~4.20.

 

Yes but even in admissions it was very close.

Keeping in mind it was Conan's OW and that it usually drops in the second week, the safer bet would be Frozen which hasn't dropped at all since opening week. We already saw this monday conan losing to frozen in admissions. 

Conan being issued by Toho could be a factor I guess....

[Cynosure]

Hello everyone,

 

What LABAS says is true, as several japanese websites confirm :

http://eiga.com/ranking/

http://www.kogyotsushin.com/archives/weekend/

http://movie.walkerplus.com/ranking/

 

They all have Conan at #1 because Japan ranks by admissions. So the average japanese, the local media outlests and perhaps the people running the theaters will just see 'Conan #1, Frozen #2'.

 

And yes, there is also the fact that Conan is issued by Toho. We'd need the screens and seats at other chains to have a better overall view.

Edited April 21, 2014 by Cynosure