JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Omni]

Does anyone have a Wed hold - Sat (or weekend) hold comparison? So, considering the continuous roller coaster, we can at least get a nice indicator of how the film may perform during the weekend.

[edroger3]

Week 11 actuals

 

Day CombAdm  Combx   Gross

67 mon  26.148 40,33   $1.054.549
68 tue  20.036 40,33   $  808.052
69 wed  48.310 40,33    $1.948.342
70 thr  16.780 40,33   $  676.737
71 fri  22.566 40,33   $  910.087
72 sat  80.244 38,15   $3.061.309 est
73 sun  99.772 38,15   $3.806.302

Total   $12.265.378

[rhfqkddl45]

Does anyone have a Wed hold - Sat (or weekend) hold comparison? So, considering the continuous roller coaster, we can at least get a nice indicator of how the film may perform during the weekend.

 

*toho   wed    sat    sun    

five   35386--57560--67869

Sixth  31370--56713--68963  wed -11.4%...Weekend toho +0.1%, Actual adm +0.7%  (623,785--628,314)

7th    34536--56390--68906  wed +10%.....Weekend toho -0.3%, Actual adm -9.8%  (628,314--566,750)

9th    28995--50503--57118  wed -14%.....Weekend toho -16%,  Actual adm -4.5%  (566,750--541,094)

10th   35574--51979--61998  wed +22%.....Weekend toho +6%,   Actual adm +9.4%  (541,094--592,173)

11th   27983--44460--54001  wed -21.4%...Weekend toho -15.9% Actual adm -12.6% (592,173--517,926)

 

 

 

      wed   toho(wkd) Actual(admissions) 

wk-6...down------up------up (but,revenue has decreased. 842m yen---826m yen)

wk-7....up------down----down 

wk-9...down-----down----down

wk-10...up-------up------up

wk-11..down-----down----down

Edited May 28, 2014 by Hans13

[edroger3]

Does anyone have a Wed hold - Sat (or weekend) hold comparison? So, considering the continuous roller coaster, we can at least get a nice indicator of how the film may perform during the weekend.

Wed admissions vs Sat and Sun (week 2-9 only toho adm, week 10-11 4-combined adm)

 

Week Sun Sat

02 59,7%  64,0%

03  104,0% 142,0%

04  110,1% 121,2%

05   52,1%  61,4%

06 45,5%  55,3%

07 50,3%  61,6%

08 43,1%  50,4%

09 50,8%  57,4%

10 51,7%  61,9%

11 48,4%  60,2%

 

Average (from week 5) is about 49% vs Sun and about 58% vs Sat

 

Wed drop vs Sat and Sun (week 10 estimate)

 

Week Wed   Sat   Sun

3    93,3% -12,9%  10,9%

4   -10,9% 4,4% -15,8%

5   -52,5% - 6,4% 0,3%

6 -11,3% - 1,5%   1,6%

7 10,2% - 1,0% - 0,3%

8 20,2%  47,0%  40,2%

9   -30,2% -38,8% -40,7%

10   20,7% 6,2%  17,0%

11 3,0% - 3,6% -14,6%

Edited May 28, 2014 by edroger

[edroger3]

 

It continues to run about 2 weeks behind SA.  Catching up may be possible, but it's far from certain.

Week 13 will be critical in determining its chances of winning.

 

 

The direct competition, such as it is (or isn't):

 

 

And, just for fun...

Now only SA and Titanic grossed more than Frozen. It would very interesting to have weekly data for Titanic in Japan, but it seems that in comparison with both movies Frozen have a better hold from 8th week, so in the 8th-11th week, Frozen's run is totally unprecedented. Next 2 weeks are very important to know if, like SA, there will a big drop or instead the numbers will be in line with 8-11 frame. If the latter happens, mfantin/lawrence predictions could be low ......

[Quigley]

Bottom line is everything bodes well for Frozen once again. Unless X-Men:DOFP or All Around Appraiser Q overperform, which to my understanding is unlikely, Frozen will not only finish in first place but also a have a minute drop this weekend (or even increase).

[Emirazza]

Can someone predict DOFP please?

[Rsyu]

Can someone predict DOFP please?

X-men franchise gross in Japan

 

X-men: $16.9 million

X2: X-men united: $15.25 million

X-men: The Last stand: $12.97 million

X-men: First Class: $7.79 million

X-Men Origins: Wolverine: $9.3 million

The Wolverine: $7.99 million

 

The franchise seems to be generally fading in popularity. Hopefully days of future past can breathe some new life into it. I'm not sure how much the early release date (comparatively early) will affect it but it seems to be generating a lot of positive reviews globally. It was very well received in China and South Korea although that might not mean much as Japan isn't as big a fan of Hollywood comic book movies. Recently The winter soldier managed to double The first avenger's gross in Japan so with a similar upward trend $15-20M should be the goal.

 

release date: may 30th (according to IMdb)

Edited May 28, 2014 by Rsyu

[Quigley]

I agree that $20M is the ceiling for this film, but a lower gross is much more likely.

[Rudolf]

SA  hat Autumn and School to content with following week 13?

Frozen has Summer and holidays. I would put my money on Frozen.

[Rsyu]

I agree that $20M is the ceiling for this film, but a lower gross is much more likely.

 

I wouldn't be surprised with lower either. Japan is a unique market that doesn't always follow global trends. 

Edited May 28, 2014 by Rsyu

[mfantin65]

X-Men openings have been 1.8 - 3m. I assume the lower end of that range as it has waned. wont put a dent in frozen. The other movie looks like the ladies would like it but its not getting the big screens like roman bath did. Frozen lost 500k when RB2 and spidey opened w 9m total but that was more the seat loss than competition.In all the other situations Wednesdays trail the weekend but with frozen in Japan it has often predicted the weekend. it's not always, if Wednesday goes down the weekend goes down its more, how is Wed holding compared to the rest of the weekdays. last week Monday and Tuesday were flat to up but Wednesday was down 10% then the weekend was down. this week Tuesday is down big but Wednesday is near flat. earlier in the run weekends were holding better than the mid weeks but Wednesday was holding better then the other weekdays and indicated how much of a drop or a slight bump the weekend had.

Edited May 28, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[alee7915]

Japanese murder detectives are investigating the case of a young woman whose corpse was posted across Japan.

The body of Rika Okada, 29, was discovered in a box labelled "doll" in a storage locker in Hachioji city, west of Tokyo.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27599324

 

   

[mfantin65]

Wed down 4.5%.I say the weekend holds 3-8% from what should have been 7.1m6.5-6.9m

Edited May 28, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[rhfqkddl45]

Note:Toho Presales X

 

*4 Theaters total

-Wednesday 5/28 ______ 2302 / 11023 - 20.88% (toho 26580 x11.546)- Today

 

-Wednesday 5/21 ______ 2324 / 11152 - 20.83% (toho 27983 x12.040) 

-Wednesday 5/14 ______ 3075 / 11585 - 26.5%  (toho 35574 x11.568)

 

*Wednesday range (x11-12.5)

[mfantin65]

1.82m Mon +80% Schools were out.0.72m Tue -20% Edumacated guess w/o toho1.75m Wed -5%198.57m Total. Last weeks total 19.84b ÷ 102.12y(ave rate for run) = 194.3020.28b yen823.6m OS total.193.7 sun studio estimate- 600k short. 818.7 sun OS estimate819.3 was OS actual then. Lets see if we can get kosher w screendaily on thursday.Projected Range280m Certain---- 12x this weekend is the floor320m Likely------ 18x My gut here says HP7.2 #4WW beat360m Possible--- 24x E.T. beaten first run 401m Domestic-- 30x Within the realm of "anything is f-ing possible", like IM3 going down once was and now is passed!12.5-13m week looking likely and will bump up the these projections nicely.

Edited May 28, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Mojoguy]

 

Japanese murder detectives are investigating the case of a young woman whose corpse was posted across Japan.

The body of Rika Okada, 29, was discovered in a box labelled "doll" in a storage locker in Hachioji city, west of Tokyo.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27599324

 

   

What does that have to do with Frozen?

 

Welp, I forget this was the JAPAN topic and not the Frozen topic.

[SamComedian]

1.82m Mon +80% Schools were out.0.72m Tue -20% Edumacated guess w/o toho1.75m Wed -5%198.57m Total. Last weeks total 19.84b ÷ 102.12y(ave rate for run) = 194.3020.28b yen823.6m OS total.193.7 sun studio estimate- 600k short. 818.7 sun OS estimate819.3 was OS actual then. Lets see if we can get kosher w screendaily on thursday.Projected Range280m Certain---- 12x this weekend is the floor320m Likely------ 18x My gut here says   HP7.2 #4WW beat360m Possible--- 24x E.T. beaten first run 401m Domestic-- 30x Within the realm of "anything is f-ing possible", like IM3 going down once was and now is passed!12.5-13m weekend looking likely and will bump up the these projections nicely.

Frozen On Fire!

[keysersoze123]

1.82m Mon +80% Schools were out.0.72m Tue -20% Edumacated guess w/o toho1.75m Wed -5%198.57m Total. Last weeks total 19.84b ÷ 102.12y(ave rate for run) = 194.3020.28b yen823.6m OS total.193.7 sun studio estimate- 600k short. 818.7 sun OS estimate819.3 was OS actual then. Lets see if we can get kosher w screendaily on thursday.Projected Range280m Certain---- 12x this weekend is the floor320m Likely------ 18x My gut here says   HP7.2 #4WW beat360m Possible--- 24x E.T. beaten first run 401m Domestic-- 30x Within the realm of "anything is f-ing possible", like IM3 going down once was and now is passed!12.5-13m weekend looking likely and will bump up the these projections nicely.

 

Are you talking about week number and weekend. if weekend then I think that is impossible. 

[mfantin65]

Are you talking about week number and weekend. if weekend then I think that is impossible. 

Autofill strikes again! Week

 

Appraiser Q has a strong female lead so it could draw a lot of women. Anyone know of an estimate for this movie? It doesn't sound like it has RB2 potential if it's not getting the big screens.